Spatial analysis and investigation of fire events occurrences in the Valencian Community, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

Local data fusion algorithm for fire detection through mobile robot

Multisensor data fusion is a technique that combines the readings of multiple sensors to detect some phenomenon. Data fusion applications are numerous and they can be used in smart buildings, environment monitoring, industry and defense applications. The main goal of multisensor data fusion is to minimize false alarms and maximize the probability of detection based on the detection of multiple sensors. In this paper a local data fusion algorithm based on luminosity, temperature and flame for fire detection is presented. The data fusion approach was embedded in a low cost mobile robot. The prototype test validation has indicated that our approach can detect fire occurrence. Moreover, the low cost project allow the development of robots that could be discarded in their fire detection missions. © 2013 IEEE.

Forest fires in Northern region of Portugal: impact on PM levels

Every year European citizens become victims of devastating fires, which are especially disastrous for Southern European countries. Apart from the numerous health and economic consequences, fires generate hazardous pollutants that are introduced into the environment, thus representing serious risks for public health. In that regard, particulate matter (PM) is of amajor concern. Thus, the objectives of thisworkwere to characterize the trend of forest fire occurrences and burnt area during the period of 2005 and 2010 and to study the influence of forest fires on levels of particulatematter PM10 and PM2.5. In 2010, 22,026 forest fires occurred in Portugal. The northern region was the most affected by forest fires, with 27% of occurrences in Oporto district. The annual means of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations at two urban background sites were 25±14 μg m−3 and 8.2±4.9 μg m−3, and 17±13 μg m−3 and 7.3±5.9 μg m−3, respectively. At both sites the highest levels of PMfractionswere observed during July and August of 2010, corresponding to the periods when majority (66%) of forest fires occurred. Furthermore, PM10 daily limit at the two sites was exceeded during 20 and 5 days, respectively; 56%, and respectively 60% of those exceedances occurred during the forest fire season. Considering that the risks of forest fire ignition and severity are enhanced with elevated temperatures, the climate change might increase the environmental impacts of forest fires.

Geospatial approach for defining the Wildland-Urban Interface in the Alpine environment

Problems related to fire hazard and fire management have become in recent decades one of the most relevant issues in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), that is the area where human infrastructures meet or intermingle with natural vegetation. In this paper we develop a robust geospatial method for defining and mapping the WUI in the Alpine environment, where most interactions between infrastructures and wildland vegetation concern the fire ignition through human activities, whereas no significant threats exist for infrastructures due to contact with burning vegetation. We used the three Alpine Swiss cantons of Ticino, Valais and Grisons as the study area. The features representing anthropogenic infrastructures (urban or infrastructural components of the WUI) as well as forest cover related features (wildland component of the WUI) were selected from the Swiss Topographic Landscape Model (TLM3D). Georeferenced forest fire occurrences derived from the WSL Swissfire database were used to define suitable WUI interface distances. The Random Forest algorithm was applied to estimate the importance of predictor variables to fire ignition occurrence. This revealed that buildings and drivable roads are the most relevant anthropogenic components with respect to fire ignition. We consequently defined the combination of drivable roads and easily accessible (i.e. 100 m from the next drivable road) buildings as the WUI-relevant infrastructural component. For the definition of the interface (buffer) distance between WUI infrastructural and wildland components, we computed the empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) of the percentage of ignition points (observed and simulated) arising at increasing distances from the selected infrastructures. The ECDF facilitates the calculation of both the distance at which a given percentage of ignition points occurred and, in turn, the amount of forest area covered at a given distance. Finally, we developed a GIS ModelBuilder routine to map the WUI for the selected buffer distance. The approach was found to be reproducible, robust (based on statistical analyses for evaluating parameters) and flexible (buffer distances depending on the targeted final area covered) so that fire managers may use it to detect WUI according to their specific priorities.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Sob o fogo cruzado das campanhas: ambientalismo, comunicação e agricultura familiar na prevenção ao fogo acidental na Amazônia

Esta pesquisa de doutorado, que teve início em 2000, tem como tema o "fogo acidental" na Amazônia e particularmente no Estado do Pará. O objetivo de estudo são as campanhas de prevenção ao fogo acidental (no âmbito da produção e recepção das informações) implementadas por órgãos governamentais e não governamentais, principalmente a partir de 1998. Quatro projetos e suas respectivas campanhas foram escolhidos para compor o escopo de análise: o Proteger, o PGAI Queimadas, o Projeto O Bom Manejo do fogo e o projeto Fogo Emergência Crônica. Trata-se de campanhas com muitos elementos convergentes, quer do ponto de vista teórico/metodológico, dos destinatários das informações, dos objetivos, dos materiais produzidos ou das áreas geográficas trabalhadas. Esta tese mostra, no âmbito das campanhas, como se estabeleceram as relações de poder entre os agentes de instituições ambientais e os agentes e instituições voltados para a agricultura familiar. Por outro lado, explicita as diversas "estratégicas" e "táticas" desenvolvidas pelos agricultores familiares e suas instituições de representação (como os sindicatos de trabalhadores rurais e as associações) para, do ponto de vista da recepção, reconstruir com diferentes sentidos os discursos das campanhas e marcar seu lugar na disputa simbólica. A hipótese central desta pesquisa, fundada principalmente em conceitos de Pierre Bourdieu, é a de que há uma "tensão" entre as "visões de mundo" de instituições e agentes do campo ambiental e instituições e agentes do campo da agricultura familiar, no que se refere à temática trabalhada pelas campanhas. Portanto, as relações de comunicação explicitadas por esta pesquisa e estabelecidas pelas campanhas são relações de poder que reafirmam o desequilíbrio de forças entre os campos. Isto resulta no alcance apenas parcial e temporário dos principais objetivos das campanhas, quais sejam: redução do número de ocorrências de fogo acidental provocadas por queimadas agrícolas e mudança de comportamento por parte de agricultores familiares.

Distribuição espacial dos incêndios em vegetação registrados pelo 2º Sub-Grupamento do Corpo de Bombeiros de Rio Claro/SP e o tempo atmosférico entre 2009 e 2013

Many fire occurrences in vegetation happen annually in the city of Rio Claro, causing material losses, environmental damage and discomfort to population. When identified the source, notes that the higher index is intentional, however, climatic factors such as wind speed, temperature, relative air humidity, rainfall, or even the local relief also affects in the spread and its devastating effects. Scientific studies that would assist the local community in the prevention and repression of them still are scarce. This way, the work has as objective contributes in the understanding of the relationship among the fire occurrences in vegetation registered (recorded) by Fire Department of Rio Claro/SP, and their relationships with the atmospheric time. To achieve this goal was made to build a database related to fires in vegetation during the years 2009-2013, and subsequently correlated with data of precipitation and relative humidity the air, provided by Center for Analysis and Planning Environmental (CEAPLA). The result identified the profile of the fires, the seasons of higher frequency, neighborhoods and districts with the highest number of records and correlate events with climatic factors that act in the ignition, propagation and control of fires in the Municipal district of Rio Claro/SP

Caracterização e Factores que Influenciam o Desempenho dos Bombeiros Profissionais: estudo exploratório

É indubitável que a decisão está presente no dia-a-dia de todos nós, independentemente do tipo de actividade em que estamos envolvidos. Na vida organizacional, enfrentamos muitas situações que exigem uma resposta momentânea, aqui denominadas de imediatas, as quais não permitem uma recolha de informação adequada, tempo para reflexão, discussão e troca de ideias, entre outras restrições. Além das limitações já citadas por outros autores, como a própria capacidade cognitiva do indivíduo, faculdade de processamento, há outros elementos que influenciam o processo de tomada de decisão, especialmente em ambientes sob pressão e em constante mutação, como é o dos bombeiros. O presente trabalho procura conhecer quais os factores que influenciam a tomada de decisão de bombeiros profissionais com funções de chefia, em ocorrências de incêndios urbanos e acidentes de viação. Neste contexto, foram abordados alguns enquadramentos para a tomada de decisão, como o Modelo da Tomada de Decisão da Primeira Opção Identificada (TDPOI) de Gary Klein, entre outros. No sentido de aprofundar a nossa investigação, foram realizados dois estudos exploratórios através de entrevistas presenciais. A amostra é constituída por 14 profissionais do sector, entre eles bombeiros com funções de chefia, comandantes e delegados sindicais. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que a experiência e a formação são os factores que se evidenciam, e influenciam a decisão dos bombeiros. Constatamos que nos Bombeiros Portugueses a experiência é uma característica dos decisores, pois são eles que farão as opções de alto risco. Por outro lado, apesar de a formação visar a aquisição de competências profissionais, nomeadamente na área da decisão, esta carece de actualização, porque não satisfaz as necessidades dos bombeiros. Apresentam-se também as principais limitações do estudo e sugestões para investigações futuras. / Undoubtedly, the decision is present in day-to-day for us all, regardless of the type of activity we are involved. In organizational life, we face many situations that require a momentary response, here called the immediate, which do not allow collection of adequate information, time for reflection, discussion and exchange of ideas, among other restrictions. Besides the limitations already mentioned by other authors, as the individual's cognitive capacity, processing power, there are other factors that influence the decision-making process, especially in environments under pressure and constantly changing, as is the Fire. This paper seeks to know which factors influence the decision making of professional firefighters with leadership roles in urban fire occurrences and accidents. In this context, we discuss some frameworks for decision making, as the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Model by Gary Klein, among others. In order to further our investigation, two exploratory studies were conducted through personal interviews. The sample consists of 14 professionals, including firefighters with executive functions, commanders and union representatives. The results showed that the experience and training are factors that are evident, and influence the decision of the firefighters. We note that the Portuguese Firemen experience is a characteristic of decision-makers because they are options that will make high-risk. On the other hand, although the training to aim at the acquisition of professional skills, particularly in the area of decision, it needs updating, because it meets the needs of firefighters. We present also the main limitations of the study and suggestions for future investigations.

Crime de incêndio urbano

Projeto de Graduação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de licenciado em Criminologia

Forest fires occurrences and burned area in mainland Portugal: preliminary assessment to a fifteen years period

Portugal, as well as the Mediterranean basin, is favorable to the occurrence of forest fires. In this work a statistical analysis was carried out based on the official information, considering the forest fires occurrences and the corresponding burned area for each of the districts of the mainland Portugal, between 1996 and 2010. Concerning to the forest fires occurrence it was possible to identify three main regions in mainland Portugal, while the burned area can be characterized in two main regions. Associations between districts and years are different in the two approaches. The results obtained provide a synthetic analysis of the phenomenon of forest fires in continental Portugal, based on all the official information available to date.

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

Strengthening a Traditional Fire Protection Course by Using Fault Trees

Traditional courses and textbooks in occupational safety emphasize rules, standards, and guidelines. This paper describes the early stage of a project to upgrade a traditional college course on fire protection by incorporating learning materials to develop the higher-level cognitive ability known as synthesis. Students will be challenged to synthesize textbook information into fault tree diagrams. The paper explains the place of synthesis in Bloom’s taxonomy of cognitive abilities and the utility of fault trees diagrams as a tool for synthesis. The intended benefits for students are: improved abilities to synthesize, a deeper understanding of fire protection practices, ability to construct fault trees for a wide range of undesired occurrences, and perhaps recognition that heavy reliance on memorization is the hard way to learn occupational safety and health.

Fire management and the nesting of Athene cunicularia (Aves, Strigidae) in grasslands in central Cerrado, Brazil

Fire management is a common practice in several reserves in the Cerrado, but its influences on bird reproduction remain unknown. In addition, the nesting biology of the Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) has been studied in numerous environments, but not in tropical grasslands managed by fire. This study examined the effects of fire management on the nesting biology of A. cunicularia in Emas National Park, State of Goias, central Brazilian Cerrado. We compared the number of breeding pairs and their burrows in October and November 2009 at 15 study sites in grasslands managed by fire (firebreaks) and unmanaged grasslands adjacent to and distant from firebreaks. We visited active burrows two-four times and described the burrow entrances and sentinel sites and counted and observed adults and young. A total of 19 burrows were found at firebreaks. One and two burrows were found in grasslands adjacent to and distant from firebreaks, respectively. For all burrows found, one to three young reached the adult size, being able to fly and/or run in early November. The 22 burrows found were in the ground, associated or not with termite and ant nests. Most (86.4%) burrows had only one entrance. Only three burrows had two or three entrances. Structures used as sentinel perches by adults were mounds in front of the burrow entrances, termite nests, shrubs and trees. Most of these sentinel sites were shorter than 2 m high and located less than 10 m from the burrow entrance. At Emas National Park, firebreaks appear to provide more attractive conditions to the nesting of A. cunicularia than unmanaged grasslands, likely because of the short herbaceous stratum due to frequent burning of firebreaks. This study suggests that fire management provides suitable conditions for the successful reproduction of A. cunicularia in firebreaks at Emas National Park.