The Impact of Recycling on the Long-Run Stock of Trees

Interest in recycling of forest products has grown in recent years, one of the goals being to conserve the stock of trees or possibly increase it to compensate for positive externalities generated by the forest and neglected by the market. This paper explores the issue as to whether recycling is an appropriate measure to attain such a goal. We do this by considering the problem of the private owner of an area of land, who, acting as a price taker, decides how to allocate his land over time between forestry and some other use, and at what age to harvest the forest area chosen. Once the forest is cut, he makes a new land allocation decision and replants. He does so indefinitely, in a Faustmann-like framework. The wood from the harvest is transformed into a final product which is partly recycled into a substitute for the virgin wood, so that past output affects the current price. We show that in such a context, increasing the rate of recycling will result in less area being devoted to forestry. It will also have the effect of increasing the harvest age of the forest, as long as the planting cost is positive. The net effect on the flow of virgin wood being harvested to supply the market will as a result be ambiguous. The main point however is that recycling will result in a smaller, not a larger, stock of trees in the long run. It would therefore be best to resort to other means if the goal is to increase the stock of trees.

Essais sur la gestion des ressources forestières

Cette thèse est composée de trois essais en économie forestière. Les deux premiers s'intéressent à la fixation de la redevance optimale à laquelle fait face le propriétaire d'une ressource forestière dans un contexte d'information asymétrique. Le troisième analyse l'impact à long terme du recyclage sur la surface de terre affectée à la forêt. La gestion des ressources forestières implique souvent la délégation des droits de coupe par le propriétaire forestier à une entreprise exploitante. Cette délégation prend la forme d'un contrat de concession par lequel le propriétaire forestier octroie les droits d'exploitation aux compagnies forestières, en contrepartie d'une redevance (transfert monétaire). L'octroie des droits d'exploitation s'effectue généralement sous plusieurs modes, dont les plus répandus sont les appels d'offres publics et les contrats de gré à gré, où le propriétaire forestier et la firme exploitante spécifient entre autres la redevance dans les clauses d'exploitation de la forêt. Pour déterminer le mécanisme optimal (choix de la firme, âge de coupe et redevance), le propriétaire forestier a idéalement besoin de connaître les coûts de coupe et de reboisement. Or en réalité, les firmes sont mieux informées sur leurs coûts que le propriétaire forestier. Dans ce contexte d'information asymétrique, le mécanisme optimal doit donc prendre en considération des contraintes informationnelles. Les deux premiers essais caractérisent, sous ces conditions, l'âge de coupe optimal (la rotation optimale) et la redevance optimale. Le premier essai examine le contrat optimal quand le propriétaire forestier cède les droits de coupes à une firme par un accord de gré à gré ou par une procédure d'appel d'offre public au second prix. L'analyse du problème est menée premièrement dans un contexte statique, dans le sens que les coûts de coupe sont parfaitement corrélés dans le temps, puis dans un contexte dynamique, où les coûts sont indépendants dans le temps. L'examen en statique et en dynamique montre que la rotation optimale va satisfaire une version modifiée de la règle de Faustmann qui prévaudrait en information symétrique. Cette modification est nécessaire afin d'inciter la firme à révéler ses vrais coûts. Dans le cas statique, il en résulte que la rotation optimale est plus élevée en information asymétrique qu'en situation de pleine information. Nous montrons également comment le seuil maximal de coût de coupe peut être endogénéisé, afin de permettre au propriétaire d'accroître son profit espéré en s'assurant que les forêts non profitables ne seront pas exploitées. Nous comparons ensuite la redevance optimale en information asymétrique et symétrique. Les redevances forestières dans un arrangement de gré à gré étant généralement, en pratique, une fonction linéaire du volume de bois, nous dérivons le contrat optimal en imposant une telle forme de redevance et nous caractérisons la perte en terme de profit espéré qui résulte de l'utilisation de ce type de contrat plutôt que du contrat non linéaire plus général. Finalement, toujours dans le contexte statique, nous montrons à travers un mécanisme optimal d'enchère au second prix qu'en introduisant ainsi la compétition entre les firmes le propriétaire forestier augmente son profit espéré. Les résultats obtenus dans le contexte dynamique diffèrent pour la plupart de ceux obtenus dans le cas statique. Nous montrons que le contrat optimal prévoit alors que chaque type de firme, incluant celle ayant le coût le plus élevé, obtient une rente strictement positive, laquelle augmente dans le temps. Ceci est nécessaire pour obtenir la révélation à moindre coût à la période courante du véritable type de la firme. Comme implication, la rotation optimale s'accroît aussi dans le temps. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il y a distorsion en asymétrique d'information par rapport à l'optimum de pleine information même pour le coût le plus bas (la réalisation la plus favorable). La concurrence introduite dans le premier essai sous forme d'enchère au second prix suppose que chaque firme connaît exactement son propre coût de coupe. Dans le deuxième essai nous relâchons cette hypothèse. En réalité, ni le propriétaire forestier ni les firmes ne connaissent avec précision les coûts de coupe. Chaque firme observe de manière privée un signal sur son coût. Par exemple chaque firme est autorisée à visiter un lot pour avoir une estimation (signal) de son coût de coupe. Cependant cette évaluation est approximative. Ainsi, le coût de chaque firme va dépendre des estimations (signaux) d'autres firmes participantes. Nous sommes en présence d'un mécanisme à valeurs interdépendantes. Dans ce contexte, la valeur d'une allocation dépend des signaux de toutes les firmes. Le mécanisme optimal (attribution des droits d'exploitation, redevance et âge de coupe) est exploré. Nous déterminons les conditions sous lesquelles le mécanisme optimal peut être implémenté par une enchère au second prix et dérivons la rotation optimale et le prix de réserve dans le contexte de ce type d'enchère. Le troisième essai de la thèse analyse l'impact à long terme du recyclage sur la surface de terre affectée à la forêt. L'un des principaux arguments qui milite en faveur du recours au recyclage est que cela entraînerait une réduction de la coupe de bois, épargnant ainsi des arbres. L'objectif est donc d'aboutir à un nombre d'arbres plus important qu'en l'absence de recyclage. L'idée d'accroître le stock d'arbre tient au fait que les forêts génèrent des externalités: elles créent un flux de services récréatifs, freinent l'érosion des sols et des rives des cours d'eau et absorbent du dioxyde de carbone présent dans l'atmosphère. Étant donné la présence d'externalités, l'équilibre des marchés résulterait en un nombre d'arbre insuffisant, justifiant donc la mise en oeuvre de politiques visant à l'accroître. Le but de ce troisième essai est de voir dans quelle mesure la promotion du recyclage est un instrument approprié pour atteindre un tel objectif. En d'autres mots, comment le recyclage affecte-t-il à long terme la surface de terre en forêt et l'âge de coupe? Nous étudions cette question en spécifiant un modèle dynamique d'allocation d'un terrain donné, par un propriétaire forestier privé, entre la forêt et une utilisation alternative du terrain, comme l'agriculture. Une fois les arbres coupés, il décide d'une nouvelle allocation du terrain. Il le fait indéfiniment comme dans le cadre du modèle de Faustmann. Le bois coupé est transformé en produit final qui est en partie recyclé comme substitut du bois original. Ainsi, les outputs passés affectent le prix courant. Nous montrons que, paradoxalement, un accroissement du taux de recyclage réduira à long terme la surface forestière et donc diminuera le nombre d'arbres plantés. Par contre l'âge de coupe optimal va s'accroître. L'effet net sur le volume de bois offert sur le marché est ambigu. Le principal message cependant est qu'à long terme le recyclage va résulter en une surface en forêt plus petite et non plus grande. Donc, si le but est d'accroître la surface en forêt, il pourrait être préférable de faire appel à d'autres types d'instruments de politique que celui d'encourager le recyclage.

Young children as rule makers

Young children engage in a constant process of negotiating and constructing rules, utilizing these rules as cultural resources to manage their social interactions. This paper examines how young children make sense of, and also construct, rules within one early childhood classroom. This paper draws on a recent study conducted in Australia, in which video-recorded episodes of young children’s talk-in-interaction were examined. Analysis revealed four interactional practices that the children used, including manipulating materials and places to claim ownership of resources within the play space; developing or using pre-existing rules and social orders to control the interactions of their peers; strategically using language to regulate the actions of those around them; and creating and using membership categories such as ‘car owner’ or ‘team member’ to include or exclude others and also to control and participate in the unfolding interaction. While the classroom setting was framed within adult conceptions and regulations, analysis of the children’s interaction demonstrated their co-constructions of social order and imposition of their own forms of rules. Young children negotiated both adult constructed social order and also their own peer constructed social order, drawing upon various rules within both social orders as cultural resources by which they managed their interaction.

Retrospectivity and the rule of law

This book analyses and refines the arguments for and against retrospective rule making, concluding that there is one really strong argument against it: the expectation that, if an individual's actions are considered by a future court, the legal consequences of that action will be determined by the law that was discoverable at the time the action was performed. This argument, which goes to the heart of the rule of law, is generally determinative. However, in some cases the argument does not run and this book suggests that, in some areas of law, reliance should be actively discouraged by prospective warnings that the law is subject to change.

Towards a rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

The effective management of bridge stock involves making decisions as to when to repair, remedy, or do nothing, taking into account the financial and service life implications. Such decisions require a reliable diagnosis as to the cause of distress and an understanding of the likely future degradation. Such diagnoses are based on a combination of visual inspections, laboratory tests on samples and expert opinions. In addition, the choice of appropriate laboratory tests requires an understanding of the degradation mechanisms involved. Under these circumstances, the use of expert systems or evaluation tools developed from “realtime” case studies provides a promising solution in the absence of expert knowledge. This paper addresses the issues in bridge infrastructure management in Queensland, Australia. Bridges affected by alkali silica reaction and chloride induced corrosion have been investigated and the results presented using a mind mapping tool. The analysis highights that several levels of rules are required to assess the mechanism causing distress. The systematic development of a rule based approach is presented. An example of this application to a case study bridge has been used to demonstrate that preliminary results are satisfactory.

Towards a Rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

Does pedagogy still rule?

Theories on teaching and learning for adult learners are constantly being reviewed and discussed in the higher educational environment. Theories are not static and appear to be in a constant developmental process. This paper discusses three of these theories: pedagogy, andragogy and heutagogy. It is argued that although educators engage in many of the principles of either student-centered (andragogy) and self-determined (heutagogy) learning, it is not possible to fully implement either theory. The two main limitations are the requirements of both internal and external stakeholders, such as accrediting bodies and requirements to assess all student learning. A reversion to teacher-centered learning (pedagogy) ensues. In summary, we engage in many action-oriented learning activities but revert to teacher-centered approaches in terms of content and assessment.

Changing musical emotion : a computational rule system for modifying score and performance

When communicating emotion in music, composers and performers encode their expressive intentions through the control of basic musical features such as: pitch, loudness, timbre, mode, and articulation. The extent to which emotion can be controlled through the systematic manipulation of these features has not been fully examined. In this paper we present CMERS, a Computational Music Emotion Rule System for the control of perceived musical emotion that modifies features at the levels of score and performance in real-time. CMERS performance was evaluated in two rounds of perceptual testing. In experiment I, 20 participants continuously rated the perceived emotion of 15 music samples generated by CMERS. Three music works, each with five emotional variations were used (normal, happy, sad, angry, and tender). The intended emotion by CMERS was correctly identified 78% of the time, with significant shifts in valence and arousal also recorded, regardless of the works’ original emotion.

The 10% rule. Maximising learning through collaborative game design

This paper presents a retrospective view of a game design practice that recently switched from the development of complex learning games to the development of simple authoring tools for students to design their own learning games for each other. We introduce how our ‘10% Rule’, a premise that only 10% of what is learnt during a game design process is ultimately appreciated by the player, became a major contributor to the evolving practice. We use this rule primarily as an analytical and illustrative tool to discuss the learning involved in designing and playing learning games rather than as a scientifically and empirically proven rule. The 10% rule was promoted by our experience as designers and allows us to explore the often overlooked and valuable learning processes involved in designing learning games and mobile games in particular. This discussion highlights that in designing mobile learning games, students are not only reflecting on their own learning processes through setting up structures for others to enquire and investigate, they are also engaging in high-levels of independent inquiry and critical analysis in authentic learning settings. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the importance of these types of learning processes and skills of enquiry in 21st Century learning.

GYAN: A methodology for rule extraction from artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) learning methods provide a robust and non-linear approach to approximating the target function for many classification, regression and clustering problems. ANNs have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide variety of practical problems. However, there are strong arguments as to why ANNs are not sufficient for the general representation of knowledge. The arguments are the poor comprehensibility of the learned ANN, and the inability to represent explanation structures. The overall objective of this thesis is to address these issues by: (1) explanation of the decision process in ANNs in the form of symbolic rules (predicate rules with variables); and (2) provision of explanatory capability by mapping the general conceptual knowledge that is learned by the neural networks into a knowledge base to be used in a rule-based reasoning system. A multi-stage methodology GYAN is developed and evaluated for the task of extracting knowledge from the trained ANNs. The extracted knowledge is represented in the form of restricted first-order logic rules, and subsequently allows user interaction by interfacing with a knowledge based reasoner. The performance of GYAN is demonstrated using a number of real world and artificial data sets. The empirical results demonstrate that: (1) an equivalent symbolic interpretation is derived describing the overall behaviour of the ANN with high accuracy and fidelity, and (2) a concise explanation is given (in terms of rules, facts and predicates activated in a reasoning episode) as to why a particular instance is being classified into a certain category.