Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.

Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Strengthening a Traditional Fire Protection Course by Using Fault Trees

Traditional courses and textbooks in occupational safety emphasize rules, standards, and guidelines. This paper describes the early stage of a project to upgrade a traditional college course on fire protection by incorporating learning materials to develop the higher-level cognitive ability known as synthesis. Students will be challenged to synthesize textbook information into fault tree diagrams. The paper explains the place of synthesis in Bloom’s taxonomy of cognitive abilities and the utility of fault trees diagrams as a tool for synthesis. The intended benefits for students are: improved abilities to synthesize, a deeper understanding of fire protection practices, ability to construct fault trees for a wide range of undesired occurrences, and perhaps recognition that heavy reliance on memorization is the hard way to learn occupational safety and health.

Real-time process plant fault diagnosis

Operators can become confused while diagnosing faults in process plant while in operation. This may prevent remedial actions being taken before hazardous consequences can occur. The work in this thesis proposes a method to aid plant operators in systematically finding the causes of any fault in the process plant. A computer aided fault diagnosis package has been developed for use on the widely available IBM PC compatible microcomputer. The program displays a coloured diagram of a fault tree on the VDU of the microcomputer, so that the operator can see the link between the fault and its causes. The consequences of the fault and the causes of the fault are also shown to provide a warning of what may happen if the fault is not remedied. The cause and effect data needed by the package are obtained from a hazard and operability (HAZOP) study on the process plant. The result of the HAZOP study is recorded as cause and symptom equations which are translated into a data structure and stored in the computer as a file for the package to access. Probability values are assigned to the events that constitute the basic causes of any deviation. From these probability values, the a priori probabilities of occurrence of other events are evaluated. A top-down recursive algorithm, called TDRA, for evaluating the probability of every event in a fault tree has been developed. From the a priori probabilities, the conditional probabilities of the causes of the fault are then evaluated using Bayes' conditional probability theorem. The posteriori probability values could then be used by the operators to check in an orderly manner the cause of the fault. The package has been tested using the results of a HAZOP study on a pilot distillation plant. The results from the test show how easy it is to trace the chain of events that leads to the primary cause of a fault. This method could be applied in a real process environment.

Expert systems for fault analysis

The initial aim of this research was to investigate the application of expert Systems, or Knowledge Base Systems technology to the automated synthesis of Hazard and Operability Studies. Due to the generic nature of Fault Analysis problems and the way in which Knowledge Base Systems work, this goal has evolved into a consideration of automated support for Fault Analysis in general, covering HAZOP, Fault Tree Analysis, FMEA and Fault Diagnosis in the Process Industries. This thesis described a proposed architecture for such an Expert System. The purpose of the System is to produce a descriptive model of faults and fault propagation from a description of the physical structure of the plant. From these descriptive models, the desired Fault Analysis may be produced. The way in which this is done reflects the complexity of the problem which, in principle, encompasses the whole of the discipline of Process Engineering. An attempt is made to incorporate the perceived method that an expert uses to solve the problem; keywords, heuristics and guidelines from techniques such as HAZOP and Fault Tree Synthesis are used. In a truly Expert System, the performance of the system is strongly dependent on the high quality of the knowledge that is incorporated. This expert knowledge takes the form of heuristics or rules of thumb which are used in problem solving. This research has shown that, for the application of fault analysis heuristics, it is necessary to have a representation of the details of fault propagation within a process. This helps to ensure the robustness of the system - a gradual rather than abrupt degradation at the boundaries of the domain knowledge.

Availability analysis of heat recovery steam generators used in thermal power plants

The combined-cycle gas and steam turbine power plant presents three main pieces of equipment: gas turbines, steam turbines and heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). In case of HRSG failure the steam cycle is shut down, reducing the power plant output. Considering that the technology for design, construction and operation of high capacity HRSGs is quite recent its availability should be carefully evaluated in order to foresee the performance of the power plant. This study presents a method for reliability and availability evaluation of HRSGs installed in combined-cycle power plant. The method`s first step consists in the elaboration of the steam generator functional tree and development of failure mode and effects analysis. The next step involves a reliability and availability analysis based on the time to failure and time to repair data recorded during the steam generator operation. The third step, aiming at availability improvement, recommends the fault-tree analysis development to identify components the failure (or combination of failures) of which can cause the HRSG shutdown. Those components maintenance policy can be improved through the use of reliability centered maintenance (RCM) concepts. The method is applied on the analysis of two HRSGs installed in a 500 MW combined-cycle power plant. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automaattisen pakkauskoneen käyttövarmuuden varmentaminen

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää ja varmistaa uuden pakkauskoneen riittävä käyttövarmuus. Käyttövarmuuden selvittämistä varten tutustuttiin käyttövarmuuden käsitteisiin jatunnuslukuihin, sekä selvitettiin kunnossapidon merkitystä käyttövarmuuteen. Pakkauskoneen käyttövarmuutta analysoitiin vikapuumallin avulla. Analysointia varten laadittu vikapuumalli koostuu 391 perustapahtumasta ja yhteensä 629 tapahtumasta. Käyttövarmuusanalyysi suoritettiin kvalitatiivisesti ja kvantitatiivisesti. Analysointi painottuu kuitenkin kvantitatiiviseen simulointiin. Käyttövarmuusanalysoinnin apuna käytettiin simulointiohjelmaa. Käyttövarmuusvaatimukseksi asetettiin 99 % käytettävyys vuoden käyttöjakson aikana. Vikapuuanalyysin tuloksena saatiin arvio pakkauskoneen kokonaiskäytettävyydestä. Kokonaiskäytettävyydeksi muodostui 96,44 %, joka ei täytä käyttövarmuusvaatimusta. Yksittäisistä komponenttityypeistä epäluotettavimpia olivat liimalaitteiston ja paineilmajärjestelmän komponentit. Analysointityökalun avulla voitiin osoittaa käyttövarmuutta parantavien osatekijöiden vaikutukset saatuun kokonaiskäytettävyyteen. Käyttövarmuuteen voitiin vaikuttaa kunnossapidon avulla, lyhentämällä korjausaikaa ja varmentamalla komponentteja. Esitettyjen keinojen avulla käytettävyyttä on mahdollista nostaa n. 2,18 prosenttiyksikköä. Toimenpidesuositukset esitettiin saatujen tulosten ja työssä havainnoitujen asioiden perusteella. Käytettävyyden parantamiseksi ja varmistamiseksi suositetaan oikeanlaisia kunnossapitotoimenpiteitä, tehokkaan vikadiagnostiikan rakentamista sekä antureiden varmentamista. Käyttökunnonvalvonta suositetaan suoritettavaksi määräaikaistarkastuksina. Käyttökuntoa on aloitettava seuraamaan pidemmällä aikavälillä tapahtuvina häiriöraportointeina. Lisäksi tulevaisuudessa on vaadittava käyttövarmuustakuut toimittajilta laitehankintojen yhteydessä.

Computational methods for tactical simulations

Tämä taktiikan tutkimus keskittyy tietokoneavusteisen simuloinnin laskennallisiin menetelmiin, joita voidaan käyttää taktisen tason sotapeleissä. Työn tärkeimmät tuotokset ovat laskennalliset mallit todennäköisyyspohjaisen analyysin mahdollistaviin taktisen tason taistelusimulaattoreihin, joita voidaan käyttää vertailevaan analyysiin joukkue-prikaatitason tarkastelutilanteissa. Laskentamallit keskittyvät vaikuttamiseen. Mallit liittyvät vahingoittavan osuman todennäköisyyteen, jonka perusteella vaikutus joukossa on mallinnettu tilakoneina ja Markovin ketjuina. Edelleen näiden tulokset siirretään tapahtumapuuanalyysiin operaation onnistumisen todennäköisyyden osalta. Pienimmän laskentayksikön mallinnustaso on joukkue- tai ryhmätasolla, jotta laskenta-aika prikaatitason sotapelitarkasteluissa pysyisi riittävän lyhyenä samalla, kun tulokset ovat riittävän tarkkoja suomalaiseen maastoon. Joukkueiden mies- ja asejärjestelmävahvuudet ovat jakaumamuodossa, eivätkä yksittäisiä lukuja. Simuloinnin integroinnissa voidaan käyttää asejärjestelmäkohtaisia predictor corrector –parametreja, mikä mahdollistaa aika-askelta lyhytaikaisempien taistelukentän ilmiöiden mallintamisen. Asemallien pohjana ovat aiemmat tutkimukset ja kenttäkokeet, joista osa kuuluu tähän väitöstutkimukseen. Laskentamallien ohjelmoitavuus ja käytettävyys osana simulointityökalua on osoitettu tekijän johtaman tutkijaryhmän ohjelmoiman ”Sandis”- taistelusimulointiohjelmiston avulla, jota on kehitetty ja käytetty Puolustusvoimien Teknillisessä Tutkimuslaitoksessa. Sandikseen on ohjelmoitu karttakäyttöliittymä ja taistelun kulkua simuloivia laskennallisia malleja. Käyttäjä tai käyttäjäryhmä tekee taktiset päätökset ja syöttää nämä karttakäyttöliittymän avulla simulointiin, jonka tuloksena saadaan kunkin joukkuetason peliyksikön tappioiden jakauma, keskimääräisten tappioiden osalta kunkin asejärjestelmän aiheuttamat tappiot kuhunkin maaliin, ammuskulutus ja radioyhteydet ja niiden tila sekä haavoittuneiden evakuointi-tilanne joukkuetasolta evakuointisairaalaan asti. Tutkimuksen keskeisiä tuloksia (kontribuutio) ovat 1) uusi prikaatitason sotapelitilanteiden laskentamalli, jonka pienin yksikkö on joukkue tai ryhmä; 2) joukon murtumispisteen määritys tappioiden ja haavoittuneiden evakuointiin sitoutuvien taistelijoiden avulla; 3) todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin käyttömahdollisuus vertailevassa tutkimuksessa sekä 4) kokeellisesti testatut tulen vaikutusmallit ja 5) toimivat integrointiratkaisut. Työ rajataan maavoimien taistelun joukkuetason todennäköisyysjakaumat luovaan laskentamalliin, kenttälääkinnän malliin ja epäsuoran tulen malliin integrointimenetelmineen sekä niiden antamien tulosten sovellettavuuteen. Ilmasta ja mereltä maahan -asevaikutusta voidaan tarkastella, mutta ei ilma- ja meritaistelua. Menetelmiä soveltavan Sandis -ohjelmiston malleja, käyttötapaa ja ohjelmistotekniikkaa kehitetään edelleen. Merkittäviä jatkotutkimuskohteita mallinnukseen osalta ovat muun muassa kaupunkitaistelu, vaunujen kaksintaistelu ja maaston vaikutus tykistön tuleen sekä materiaalikulutuksen arviointi.

Uma metodologia para modelagem e avaliação da dependabilidade de redes industriais sem fio

Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments

Br-IndustrialExpert: um framework para análise de dependabilidade de processos industriais

There is a growing need to develop new tools to help end users in tasks related to the design, monitoring, maintenance and commissioning of critical infrastructures. The complexity of the industrial environment, for example, requires that these tools have flexible features in order to provide valuable data for the designers at the design phases. Furthermore, it is known that industrial processes have stringent requirements for dependability, since failures can cause economic losses, environmental damages and danger to people. The lack of tools that enable the evaluation of faults in critical infrastructures could mitigate these problems. Accordingly, the said work presents developing a framework for analyzing of dependability for critical infrastructures. The proposal allows the modeling of critical infrastructure, mapping its components to a Fault Tree. Then the mathematical model generated is used for dependability analysis of infrastructure, relying on the equipment and its interconnections failures. Finally, typical scenarios of industrial environments are used to validate the proposal