Designing a Demand Forecasting Process in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Context

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general forecasting process design, forecasting methods and techniques, the role of human judgment in forecasting and forecasting performance measurement. The purpose of the literature review was to identify the important design choices that an organization aiming to design or re-design their demand forecasting process would have to make. In the empirical part of the study, these choices and the existing knowledge behind them was assessed in a case study where a demand forecasting process was re-designed for a company in the fast moving consumer goods business. The new target process is described, as well as the reasoning behind the design choices made during the re-design process. As a result, the most important design choices are highlighted, as well as their immediate effect on other processes directly tied to the demand forecasting process. Additionally, some new insights on the organizational aspects of demand forecasting processes are explored. The preliminary results indicate that in this case the new process did improve forecasting accuracy, although organizational issues related to the process proved to be more challenging than anticipated.

Relativistic Archimedes law for fast moving bodies and the general-relativistic resolution of the submarine paradox

We investigate and solve in the context of general relativity the apparent paradox which appears when bodies floating in a background fluid are set in relativistic motion. Suppose some macroscopic body, say, a submarine designed to lie just in equilibrium when it rests (totally) immersed in a certain background fluid. The puzzle arises when different observers are asked to describe what is expected to happen when the submarine is given some high velocity parallel to the direction of the fluid surface. on the one hand, according to observers at rest with the fluid, the submarine would contract and, thus, sink as a consequence of the density increase. on the other hand, mariners at rest with the submarine using an analogous reasoning for the fluid elements would reach the opposite conclusion. The general relativistic extension of the Archimedes law for moving bodies shows that the submarine sinks. As an extra bonus, this problem suggests a new gedankenexperiment for the generalized second law of thermodynamics.

New product screening in fast moving consumer goods

Theory suggests that the dimensions that are incorporated in the new product screening decision will differ according to the stage of the development process. The outcome of the application of different screening dimensions would be quicker, realistic and more reliable screening decisions. This research project builds on existing new product development and screening literature by investigating new product screening in international fast moving consumer goods companies. It further builds on the existing literature by measuring decision-making relating to projects in 'real time', as managers' responses refer to projects they are currently working on. The introduction of branded consumer products allows us to evolve scales used in new product research by further developing variables relating to branding, promotion and retailer power. The project uncovers multiple dimensions of new product screening and evaluation within this branded product sector. These dimensions are found to differ in their ability to discriminate between two groups of accepted and rejected projects at each of four stages of the new product development process. This investigation provides the intelligence with which managers can determine the likelihood of project acceptance and rejection at different stages of the development process. It highlights the need for managers to apply stage-specific dimensions in the new product screening decision and advocates the redefinition of new product screening from both an academic and managerial perspective. The screening decision should not be viewed as a single, early decision in a product development process, but as a series of stage specific decisions regarding future project potential.

Desafíos de la movilización social para generar transformaciones en las instituciones: la movilización fallida en Egipto periodo 2010-2013

Este estudio de caso busca evaluar los alcances y limitaciones que tiene la movilización social para lograr transformaciones en las instituciones a partir del estudio de la movilización social en Egipto durante el período 2010-2013. Se analiza y se explica en qué sentido las instituciones de movimiento lento, como las estructuras de poder y estructuras mentales, han frustrado lo acontecido en Egipto conocido como la primavera árabe. Siguiendo la perspectiva de las instituciones de Gérard Roland y Alejandro Portes, se avanza hacia el resultado de la investigación de que las instituciones de movimiento lento tienen en cuenta aspectos estructurales de una sociedad tales como el poder y la cultura. Por ello, no pueden ser cambiadas con facilidad ya que cuentan con bases sólidas que han sido construidas mediante procesos históricos fundamentados en ideologías y valores.

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Epilithic biofilm on rocky shores is regulated by physico-chemical and biological factors and is important as a source of food for benthic organisms. The influences of environmental and grazing pressure on spatial variability of biomass of biofilm were evaluated on shores on the north coast of Sao Paulo State (SE Brazil). A general trend of greater abundance of microalgae was observed lower on the shore, but neither of the environmental factors evaluated (wave exposure and shore level) showed consistent effects, and differences were found among specific shores or times (September 2007 and March 2008). The abundance of slow-moving grazers (limpets and littorinids) showed a negative correlation with chlorophyll a concentration on shores. However, experimental exclusion of these grazers failed to show consistent results at small spatial scales. Observations of divergent abundances of the isopod Ligia exotica and biomass of biofilm on isolated boulders on shores led to a short exclusion experiment, where the grazing pressure by L. exotica significantly decreased microalgal biomass. The result suggests that grazing activities of this fast-moving consumer probably mask the influence of slow-moving grazers at small spatial scales, while both have an additive effect at larger scales that masks environmental influences. This is the first evaluation of the impact of the fast-moving herbivore L. exotica on microalgal biomass on rocky shores and opens an interesting discussion about the role of these organisms in subtropical coastal environments.

Foraging by the omnivorous crab Pachygrapsus transversus affects the structure of assemblages on sub-tropical rocky shores

The roles of herbivory and predation in determining the structure and diversity of communities have been tested across most intertidal systems. In contrast, the importance of omnivorous consumers remains untested in many rocky shore communities. We tested the role of a small omnivorous crab in an intertidal food web on rocky shores of the sub-tropical southwest Atlantic. Exclusion of the grapsid crab Pachygrapsus transversus in the field resulted in significant changes in the abundance of functional groups in the sublittoral fringe of sheltered shores, where the dominant cover changed from a suite of macroalgae to an assemblage of filter-feeding animals (ascidians, sponges, mussels). In contrast, limpets, whelks, large crabs and fish did not significantly affect community composition of the assemblage. To examine the omnivorous feeding pattern of P. transversus, we did laboratory experiments to test its foraging behaviour among animal and algal groups. The crab showed selective behaviour, preferring invertebrate groups to macroalgae, and opportunistic behaviour among types of prey within those major groups. According to our results, the role of slow-moving and large fast-moving consumers is apparently negligible compared to the effect of an omnivorous consumer. P. transversus plays an important role in determining the intertidal community composition on these subtropical rocky shores, causing changes in the balance of functional groups and controlling invasive species.

The 23rd October 2002 dust storm in eastern Australia: characteristics and meteorological conditions

The dust storm of 23 October 2002 covered most of eastern Australia and carried one of the largest recorded dust loads in Australia. In the 6 months leading up to the event, severe drought conditions in eastern Australia, plus above average maximum temperatures resulted in high potential evapo-transpiration rates, producing severe soil moisture deficits and reduced vegetation cover. Although increased wind speeds associated with a fast moving cold front were the meteorological driving force, these winds speeds were lower than those for the previously documented large dust storms. The dust storm was 2400 km long, up to 400 km across and 1.5-2.5 km in height. The plume area was estimated at 840,860 km 2 and the dust load at 0900 h was 3.35-4.85 million tones (Mt). These dust load estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions, regarding visibility-dust concentration relationships, vertical dust concentration profiles and dust ceilings. The event is examined using meteorological records, remote sensing and air quality monitoring. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE INFLUENCE OF VIBRISSAL SOMATOSENSORY PROCESSING IN RAT SUPERIOR COLLICULUS ON PREY CAPTURE

The lateral part of intermediate layer of superior colliculus (SCI) is a critical substrate for successful predation by rats. Hunting-evoked expression of the activity marker Fos is concentrated in SCI while prey capture in rats with NMDA lesions in SCI is impaired. Particularly affected are rapid orienting and stereotyped sequences of actions associated with predation of fast moving prey. Such deficits are consistent with the view that the deep layers of SC are important for sensory guidance of movement. Although much of the relevant evidence involves visual control of movement, less is known about movement guidance by somatosensory input from vibrissae. Indeed, our impression is that prey contact with whiskers is a likely stimulus to trigger predation. Moreover, SCI receives whisker and orofacial somatosensory information directly from trigeminal complex, and indirectly from zona incerta, parvicelular reticular formation and somatosensory barrel cortex. To better understand sensory guidance of predation by vibrissal information we investigated prey capture by rats after whisker removal and the role of superior colliculus (SC) by comparing Fos expression after hunting with and without whiskers. Rats were allowed to hunt cockroaches, after which their whiskers were removed. Two days later they were allowed to hunt cockroaches again. Without whiskers the rats were less able to retain the cockroaches after capture and less able to pursue them in the event of the cockroach escaping. The predatory behaviour of rats with re-grown whiskers returned to normal. In parallel, Fos expression in SCI induced by predation was significantly reduced in whiskerless animals. We conclude that whiskers contribute to the efficiency of rat prey capture and that the loss of vibrissal input to SCI, as reflected by reduced Fos expression, could play a critical role in predatory deficits of whiskerless rats. (C) 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emerging Latin America

This paper is specially dedicated to the students of management of the world. After outlining the historical, demographic, and physical aspects of Latin America, the authors establish and use a framework to describe and explain the modern economic, social, and political development of this region. The paper is firmly grounded on the historical dimensions of contemporary Latin America. Its background is the context of an exceptionally fast-moving global economy.

Ball Sensing in a Leg Like Robotic Kicker

The trend to have more cooperative play and the increase of game dynamics in Robocup MSL League motivates the improvement of skills for ball passing and reception. Currently the majority of the MSL teams uses ball handling devices with rollers to have more precise kicks but limiting the capability to kick a moving ball without stopping it and grabbing it. This paper addresses the problem to receive and kick a fast moving ball without having to grab it with a roller based ball handling device. Here, the main difficulty is the high latency and low rate of the measurements of the ball sensing systems, based in vision or laser scanner sensors.Our robots use a geared leg coupled to a motor that acts simultaneously as the kicking device and low level ball sensor. This paper proposes a new method to improve the capability for ball sensing in the kicker, by combining high rate measurements from the torque and energy in the motor and angular position of the kicker leg. The developed method endows the kicker device with an effective ball detection ability, validated in several game situations like in an interception to a fast pass or when chasing the ball where the relative speed from robot to ball is low. This can be used to optimize the kick instant or by the embedded kicker control system to absorb the ball energy.

Cash conversion cycle across industries

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Cost-to-serve customers’ optimization: Macro project Unilever – Jerónimo Martins

The objective of this work project is to analyse and discuss the importance of the “Cost to Serve” as a differentiation key factor, by accessing cost to serve customers of a Portuguese subsidiary of a multinational company, which is operating in the sector of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) – Unilever – Jerónimo Martins (UJM). I will also suggest and quantify key proposals to decrease costs and increase customers’ value. Hence, the scope of this work project is focused on logistics and distribution processes of the company supply chain.

How to monitor and improve Unilever JM Supply Chain processes to become the best of Portugal’s sector in 2015?

Unilever Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese joint-venture leading firm in what concerns the supply chain industry of fast-moving consumer goods in Portugal. The scope of analysis of this Work Project is focusing on Unilever-JM operations and services in the Portuguese market regarding quality, efficiency and effectiveness over B2B customers. It will be analysed the possibility of development and implementation of a performance measurement system, Tableau de Bord, which will be crucial for the identification of potential opportunities of improvement with impact in the supply chain processes. This will be completed through the establishment of KPI’s to monitor and manage periodically logistics, planning and customer service processes’ performance, which are the ones where the bottlenecks are impacting more in the supply chain. In this work project the nexus causality for the problems will also be discussed and some recommendations will be prepared to tackle the inefficiencies found through the monitoring of the previous core processes, in order to improve efficacy and quality service of the supply chain.

Escalation of conflict in FMCG industry: A negotiation case

This work project develops a case-study to be used in Negotiation courses, both in Masters programs and in executive education workshops. The case-study is based on a real-life negotiating situation in Belgium between Unilever, the second largest Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company in the world, and Delhaize, one of the most important Belgium’s retailers, with a significant international presence. We also present an analysis of the negotiation based on relevant literature. First, a brief literature review is presented about how to deal with multiple-issue negotiations and how to deal with processes of escalation of conflict. These concepts are then applied to the analysis of the case-study.

The Beglocal framework applied to B2C E-commerce

This case-study examined the use of the BeGloCal Framework applied to B2C E-commerce, for a fast moving consumer goods European manufacturing firm. It explains how the framework supported the team within the company to identify the right local market as to where to start the project, the problem for the company was to find the most appealing area to invest resources. By going through all the steps of the framework the findings led the company to London (Kensington and Chelsea). It shows how managers should act when they have to find a trade-off between standardization and adaptation.