O impacto das intervenções do Banco Central Brasileiro no mercado cambial: uma análise de efetividade sobre a volatilidade

Desde a adoção do sistema de câmbio flutuante pelo Banco Central do Brasil, tanto a autoridade monetária quanto o governo brasileiro têm instituído medidas convencionais e não convencionais de intervenção no mercado de câmbio. Dentre essas medidas, salientam-se as compras e vendas de dólares no mercado de spot e derivativos, cujas finalidades precípuas seriam a tentativa de estabilizar os mercados em situação de “stress” e suavizar uma determinada tendência de valorização ou desvalorização da moeda brasileira. O presente trabalho analisa os efeitos de referidas intervenções sobre a volatilidade na moeda brasileira. Utilizamos modelos econométricos da família ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) com o intuito de se averiguar o efeito sobre a volatilidade de curto e longo prazo, inclusive com metodologias semelhantes às empregadas em trabalhos direcionados a outras economias emergentes. Com o propósito de se estudar o efeito sinalizador das intervenções, foram utilizadas regressões simples com dados de volatilidade implícita e risk reversal do mercado de opções do dólar/real. Concluiu-se pela não relevância dos efeitos das intervenções sobre o nível da taxa de câmbio. No que concerne às volatilidades de curto e longo prazo, verificou-se que as vendas de dólares aumentam ambas as volatilidades, porém, quanto às compras, estas não apresentaram significância. No que se refere aos efeitos sinalizadores, via volatilidade implícita e risk reversal, estes também não expuseram relevância. Enfim, o que talvez possa consistir em fundamento para a não relevância dessas intervenções é o fato de o Brasil se consubstanciar em uma economia emergente e com menor credibilidade na condução de suas políticas monetárias.

Precious metals, a shiny hedge for investors?

Recorrendo a duas abordagens diferentes, regressão e correlação, e cobrindo os últimos vinte anos de dados diários para sete países, esta tese investiga as propriedades “safe haven” e “hedge” dos metais preciosos, em comparação com acções internacionais para um dado estado da economia. Adicionalmente, esta tese avalia o desempenho de diferentes portfolios, dentro e fora da amostra, com o objectivo de verificar se o investimento em metais preciosos poderá ajudar a atenuar a gestao do risco por parte do investidor. Os principais resultados são os que se seguem: (i) O ouro é o melhor metal precioso para um “hedging” internacional em oposição às acções (ii) O ouro permite obter valiosos benefícios de gestão de risco do portfolio (iii) 60/40 dos portofios atribuidos com ouro permitem ao investidor obter bons resultados.

Mudanças de regime e persistência dos choques sobre a volatilidade para a série de preços do petróleo: uma análise comparativa da família GARCH e modelos com mudança de regime Markoviana – MSIH e SWARCH

A previsão dos preços do petróleo é fundamental para o planejamento energético e oferece subsídio a tomada de decisões de longo prazo, que envolvem custos irrecuperáveis. No entanto, os preços do petróleo são muito instáveis sujeitos a choques como resultado de questões geopolíticas, poder de mercado da OPEP (Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo) e pressões de demanda resultando numa série sujeita a quebras estruturais, prejudicando a estimação e previsão de modelos de série temporal. Dada a limitação dos modelos de volatilidade da família GARCH, que são instáveis e apresentam elevada persistência em séries com mudanças estruturais, este trabalho compara a previsão da volatilidade, em termos de intervalos de confiança e persistência, dos modelos de volatilidade com mudança de regime markoviana em relação aos modelos de volatilidade determinísticos. Os modelos de volatilidade com mudança de regime considerados são o modelo SWARCH (Markov Switch ARCH) e introduz-se o modelo MSIH (Markov Switch Intercept Heteroskedasticity) para o estudo da volatilidade. Como resultado as previsões de volatilidade dos modelos com mudança de regime permitem uma estimação da volatilidade que reduz substancialmente a persistência em relação aos modelos GARCH.

The rediscovery of traditional urbanism at Melrose Arch

Contemporary urban form, particularly in the cities of South Africa, lacks distinction and quality. The majority of developments are conceived as private and dislocated initiatives, surveiled enclaves with gated access being the only conduit to the outside world. Any concern for a positive contribution to the matrix of public activity is seldom a consideration. The urban form responds to the perception that traffic systems are paramount to the successful flux of the city in satisfying the escalating demands of vehicular movement. In contrast many of the urban centres around the world, the great historical centres of Europe, Americas and the Sub-Continent are admired and considered the ultimate models in urban experience. The colonnades, bazaars and boulevards hosting an abundance of street activity are the characteristics of such centres and are symptomatic of a city growth based on pedestrian movement patterns, an urbanism supportative of human interaction and exchange, a form which has nurtured the existence of a public realm. Through the understanding of the principles of traditional urbanism we may learn that the modernist paradigm of a contemporary suburbia has resulted in disconnected and separate land uses with isolated districts where a reliance on the car is essential rather than optional.

Plantar fasciitis : are pain and fascial thickness associated with arch shape and loading?

Background and Purpose Although plantar fascial thickening is a sonographic criterion for the diagnosis of plantar fasciitis, the effect of local loading and structural factors on fascial morphology are unknown. The purposes of this study were to compare sonographic measures of fascial thickness and radiographic measures of arch shape and regional loading of the foot during gait in individuals with and without unilateral plantar fasciitis and to investigate potential relationships between these loading and structural factors and the morphology of the plantar fascia in individuals with and without heel pain. Subjects The participants were 10 subjects with unilateral plantar fasciitis and 10 matched asymptomatic controls. Methods Heel pain on weight bearing was measured by a visual analog scale. Fascial thickness and static arch angle were determined from bilateral sagittal sonograms and weight-bearing lateral foot roentgenograms. Regional plantar loading was estimated from a pressure plate. Results On average, the plantar fascia of the symptomatic limb was thicker than the plantar fascia of the asymptomatic limb (6.1±1.4 mm versus 4.2±0.5 mm), which, in turn, was thicker than the fascia of the matched control limbs (3.4±0.5 mm and 3.5±0.6 mm). Pain was correlated with fascial thickness, arch angle, and midfoot loading in the symptomatic foot. Fascial thickness, in turn, was positively correlated with arch angle in symptomatic and asymptomatic feet and with peak regional loading of the midfoot in the symptomatic limb. Discussion and Conclusion The findings indicate that fascial thickness and pain in plantar fasciitis are associated with the regional loading and static shape of the arch.

Footprint-based estimates of arch structure are confounded by body composition in adults

Previous research employing indirect measures of arch structure, such as those derived from footprints, have indicated that obesity results in a “flatter” foot type. In the absence of radiographic measures, however, definitive conclusions regarding the osseous alignment of the foot cannot be made. We determined the effect of body mass index (BMI) on radiographic and footprint‐based measures of arch structure. The research was a cross‐sectional study in which radiographic and footprint‐based measures of foot structure were made in 30 subjects (10 males, 20 female) in addition to standard anthropometric measures of height, weight, and BMI. Multiple (univariate) regression analysis demonstrated that both BMI ( β  = 0.39, t 26  = 2.12, p  = 0.04) and radiographic arch alignment ( β  = 0.51, t 26  = 3.32, p  < 0.01) were significant predictors of footprint‐based measures of arch height after controlling for all variables in the model ( R 2  = 0.59, F 3,26  = 12.3, p  < 0.01). In contrast, radiographic arch alignment was not significantly associated with BMI ( β  = −0.03, t 26  = −0.13, p  = 0.89) when Arch Index and age were held constant ( R 2  = 0.52, F 3,26  = 9.3, p  < 0.01). Adult obesity does not influence osseous alignment of the medial longitudinal arch, but selectively distorts footprint‐based measures of arch structure. Footprint‐based measures of arch structure should be interpreted with caution when comparing groups of varying body composition.

Safety Assessment of a Masonry Arch Bridge: Field Testing and Simulations

The safety of an in-service brick arch railway bridge is assessed through field testing and finite-element analysis. Different loading test train configurations have been used in the field testing. The response of the bridge in terms of displacements, strains, and accelerations is measured under the ambient and design train traffic loading conditions. Nonlinear fracture mechanics-based finite-element analyses are performed to assess the margin of safety. A parametric study is done to study the effects of tensile strength on the progress of cracking in the arch. Furthermore, a stability analysis to assess collapse of the arch caused by lateral movement at the springing of one of the abutments that is elastically supported is carried out. The margin of safety with respect to cracking and stability failure is computed. Conclusions are drawn with some remarks on the state of the bridge within the framework of the information available and inferred information. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000338. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Snap-through and pull-in instabilities of an arch-shaped beam under an electrostatic loading

The snap-through and pull-in instabilities of the micromachined arch-shaped beams under an electrostatic loading are studied both theoretically and experimentally. The pull-in instability that results in a system collision with an electrode substrate may lead to a system failure and, thus, limits the system maximum displacement. The beam/plate structure with a flat initial configuration under an electrostatic loading can only experience the pull-in instability. With the different arch configurations, the structure may experience either only the pull-in instability or the snap-through and pull-in instabilities together. As shown in our computation and experiment, those arch-shaped beams with the snap-through instability have the larger maximum displacement compared with the arch-shaped beams with only the pull-in stability and those with the flat initial configuration. The snap-through occurs by exerting a fixed load, and the structure experiences a discontinuous displacement jump without consuming power. Furthermore, after the snap-through jump, the structures are demonstrated to have the capacity to withstand further electrostatic loading without pull-in. Those properties of consuming no power and increasing the structure deflection range without pull-in is very useful in microelectromechanical systems design, which can offer better sensitivity and tuning range.

Impacto do reajuste no Programa Bolsa Família sobre o orçamento da União

Contém tabelas sobre o Histórico dos Reajustes de Valores do Bolsa Família. Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira - Núcleo Trabalho, Previdência e Assistência Social.

Asymmetric structure of an isolated flux arch

This paper extends two-dimensional model of symmetric magnetostatic flux arches confined in stratified atmospheres (Zhang and Hu, 1992, 1993) to asymmetric models. Numerical results show that the flux structure is influenced greatly by the boundary condition of magnetic field, the force-free factor, the atmospheric pressure distribution and the position of footpoints (especially the width ratio of outlet to entrance, which differs from symmetric case).

Comportamento dos idosos diante da violência sofrida na família e na sociedade

Consultoria Legislativa - Área XVII - Segurança Pública e Defesa Nacional.