Factors predicting the need for insulin therapy in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus

Aim: To determine the possible factors predicting the insulin requirement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method: A total of 294 patients with GDM diagnosed by the 100-g/3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were studied. The following factors were analyzed: maternal age, nulliparity, family history of diabetes, prepregnancy BMI, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, multiple pregnancy, polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis of GDM, smoking, hypertension, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The association between each factor and the need for insulin therapy was then analyzed individually. The performance of these factors to predict the probability of insulin therapy was estimated using a logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, hypertension, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c (P < 0.05). Prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values and HbA1c were statistically significant variables in the logistic regression model. Conclusions: The probability of insulin therapy can be estimated in pregnant women with GDM based on prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c concentration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical and genetic factors predicting response to therapy in patients with Crohn’s disease

Aim - To identify clinical and/or genetic predictors of response to several therapies in Crohn’s disease (CD) patients. Methods - We included 242 patients with CD (133 females) aged (mean ± standard deviation) 39 ± 12 years and a disease duration of 12 ± 8 years. The single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) studied were ABCB1 C3435T and G2677T/A, IL23R G1142A, C2370A, and G9T, CASP9 C93T, Fas G670A and LgC844T, and ATG16L1 A898G. Genotyping was performed with real-time PCR with Taqman probes. Results - Older patients responded better to 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) and to azathioprine (OR 1.07, p = 0.003 and OR 1.03, p = 0.01, respectively) while younger ones responded better to biologicals (OR 0.95, p = 0.06). Previous surgery negatively influenced response to 5-ASA compounds (OR 0.25, p = 0.05), but favoured response to azathioprine (OR 2.1, p = 0.04). In respect to genetic predictors, we observed that heterozygotes for ATGL16L1 SNP had a significantly higher chance of responding to corticosteroids (OR 2.51, p = 0.04), while homozygotes for Casp9 C93T SNP had a lower chance of responding both to corticosteroids and to azathioprine (OR 0.23, p = 0.03 and OR 0.08, p = 0.02,). TT carriers of ABCB1 C3435T SNP had a higher chance of responding to azathioprine (OR 2.38, p = 0.01), while carriers of ABCB1 G2677T/A SNP, as well as responding better to azathioprine (OR 1.89, p = 0.07), had a lower chance of responding to biologicals (OR 0.31, p = 0.07), which became significant after adjusting for gender (OR 0.75, p = 0.005). Conclusions - In the present study, we were able to identify a number of clinical and genetic predictors of response to several therapies which may become of potential utility in clinical practice. These are preliminary results that need to be replicated in future pharmacogenomic studies.

Clinical Prognostic Factors Predicting Outcomes Of Patients With Recurrent Gbm And Nomograms

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models and nomograms were recently developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).1 To improve predictions, models should be updated with the most recent patient and disease information. Nomograms predicting patient outcome at the time of disease progression are required. METHODS: Baseline information from 299 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in 8 phase I or II trials of the EORTC Brain Tumor Group was used to evaluate clinical parameters as prognosticators of patient outcome. Univariate (log rank) and multivariate (Cox models) analyses were made to assess the ability of patients' characteristics (age, sex, performance status [WHO PS], and MRC neurological deficit scale), disease history (prior treatments, time since last treatment or initial diagnosis, and administration of steroids or antiepileptics) and disease characteristics (tumor size and number of lesions) to predict progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Bootstrap technique was used for models internal validation. Nomograms were computed to provide individual patients predictions. RESULTS: Poor PS and more than 1 lesion had a significant prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Antiepileptic drug use was significantly associated with worse PFS. Larger tumors (split by the median of the largest tumor diameter >42.5 mm) and steroid use had shorter OS. Age, sex, neurologic deficit, prior therapies, and time since last therapy or initial diagnosis did not show independent prognostic value for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms that PS but not age is a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS. Multiple or large tumors and the need to administer steroids significantly increase the risk of progression and death. Nomograms at the recurrence could be used to obtain accurate predictions for the design of new targeted therapy trials or retrospective analyses. (1. T. Gorlia et al., Nomograms for predicting survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Lancet Oncol 9 (1): 29-38, 2008.)

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Septic Tenosynovitis of the Hand: Factors Predicting Need for Subsequent Débridement.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of septic hand tenosynovitis is complex, and often requires multiple débridements and prolonged antibiotic therapy. The authors undertook this study to identify factors that might be associated with the need for subsequent débridement (after the initial one) because of persistence or secondary worsening of infection. METHODS: In this retrospective single-center study, the authors included all adult patients who presented to their emergency department from 2007 to 2010 with septic tenosynovitis of the hand. RESULTS: The authors identified 126 adult patients (55 men; median age, 45 years), nine of whom were immunosuppressed. All had community-acquired infection; 34 (27 percent) had a subcutaneous abscess and eight (6 percent) were febrile. All underwent at least one surgical débridement and had concomitant antibiotic therapy (median, 15 days; range, 7 to 82 days). At least one additional surgical intervention was required in 18 cases (median, 1.13 interventions; range, one to five interventions). All but four episodes (97 percent) were cured of infection on the first attempt after a median follow-up of 27 months. By multivariate analysis, only two factors were significantly associated with the outcome "subsequent surgical débridement": abscess (OR, 4.6; 95 percent CI, 1.5 to 14.0) and longer duration of antibiotic therapy (OR, 1.2; 95 percent CI, 1.1 to 1.2). CONCLUSION: In septic tenosynovitis of the hand, the only presenting factor that was statistically predictive of an increased risk of needing a second débridement was the presence of a subcutaneous abscess. CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Risk, III.

Factors predicting mortality in type 2 diabetes. With special reference to physical exercise, blood pressure, proteinuria, inflammation and P wave duration

Background: Type 2 diabetes patients have a 2-4 fold risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to the general population. In type 2 diabetes, several CVD risk factors have been identified, including obesity, hypertension, hyperglycemia, proteinuria, sedentary lifestyle and dyslipidemia. Although much of the excess CVD risk can be attributed to these risk factors, a significant proportion is still unknown. Aims: To assess in middle-aged type 2 diabetic subjects the joint relations of several conventional and non-conventional CVD risk factors with respect to cardiovascular and total mortality. Subjects and methods: This thesis is part of a large prospective, population based East-West type 2 diabetes study that was launched in 1982-1984. It includes 1,059 middle-aged (45-64 years old) participants. At baseline, a thorough clinical examination and laboratory measurements were performed and an ECG was recorded. The latest follow-up study was performed 18 years later in January 2001 (when the subjects were 63-81 years old). The study endpoints were total mortality and mortality due to CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Results: Physically more active patients had significantly reduced total, CVD and CHD mortality independent of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels unless proteinuria was present. Among physically active patients with a hs-CRP level >3 mg/L, the prognosis of CVD mortality was similar to patients with hs-CRP levels ≤3 mg/L. The worst prognosis was among physically inactive patients with hs-CRP levels >3 mg/L. Physically active patients with proteinuria had significantly increased total and CVD mortality by multivariate analyses. After adjustment for confounding factors, patients with proteinuria and a systolic BP <130 mmHg had a significant increase in total and CVD mortality compared to those with a systolic BP between 130 and 160 mmHg. The prognosis was similar in patients with a systolic BP <130 mmHg and ≥160 mmHg. Among patients without proteinuria, a systolic BP <130 mmHg was associated with a non-significant reduction in mortality. A P wave duration ≥114 ms was associated with a 2.5-fold increase in stroke mortality among patients with prevalent CHD or claudication. This finding persisted in multivariable analyses. Among patients with no comorbidities, there was no relationship between P wave duration and stroke mortality. Conclusions: Physical activity reduces total and CVD mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes without proteinuria or with elevated levels of hs-CRP, suggesting that the anti-inflammatory effect of physical activity can counteract increased CVD morbidity and mortality associated with a high CRP level. In patients with proteinuria the protective effect was not, however, present. Among patients with proteinuria, systolic BP <130 mmHg may increase mortality due to CVD. These results demonstrate the importance of early intervention to prevent CVD and to control all-cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. The presence of proteinuria should be taken into account when defining the target systolic BP level for prevention of CVD deaths. A prolongation of the duration of the P wave was associated with increased stroke mortality among high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes. P wave duration is easy to measure and merits further examination to evaluate its importance for estimation of the risk of stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Identification of factors predicting spoken language development in young children with a cochlear implant

This paper examines the factors that are significant predictors of spoken language acquisition in children with cochlear implants. Factors identified include age of cochlear implantation, age of diagnosis, age started hearing aid use, parent educational level, and family income.

Forty-eight hour access to primary care: practice factors predicting patients' perceptions

Background: The government has proposed a 48-hour target for GP availability. Although many practices are moving towards delivering that goal, recent national patient surveys have reported a deterioration in patients' reports of doctor availability. What practice factors contribute to patients' perceptions of doctor availability? Method: A cross sectional patient survey (11 000 patients from 54 inner London practices, 7247 (66%) respondents) using the General Practice Assessment Survey. We asked patients how soon they could be seen in their practice following non-urgent consultation requests and related their aggregated responses to the characteristics of their practice. Results: Three factors relating to practice administration and appointments systems operation independently predicted patients' reports of doctor availability. These were the proportion of patients asked to attend the surgery and wait to be seen, the proportion of patients seen using an emergency surgery arrangement, and the extent of practice computerization. Conclusion: Some practices may have difficulty in meeting the target for GP availability. Meeting the target will involve careful review of practice administrative procedures.

Environmental factors predicting fish community structure in two neotropical rivers in Brazil

Com o objetivo de identificar os padrões de organização das comunidades de peixes dos rios Jogui e Iguatemi nós amostramos peixes através de redes de espera trimestralmente entre Novembro/1999 e Agosto/2000. Hypostomus ancistroides e Parauchenipterus galeatus foram as espécies de peixes mais abundantes nos rios Jogui e Iguatemi, respectivamente. A variação longitudinal foi mais importante que a sazonal na determinação da composição de espécies em ambos os rios e a diferença entre estações não foi significativa. A altitude foi o fator mais importante na determinação da distribuição das espécies.

Factors predicting mortality after tips for refractory ascites: a single center experience

Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the subject of the study. Mean follow-up was 17±2 months. Forty patients were awaiting liver transplantation (LT) and 12 (16.4%) underwent LT during follow-up. Results: Mean MELD at the moment of TIPS was 15.7±5.3. Overall mortality was 23.3% (n=17) with a mean survival after TIPS of 17±14 months. MELD score (B=0.161, p=0.042), AST (B= 0.020, p=0.090) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.016, p=0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality. On multivariate analysis MELD (B=0.419, p=0.018) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.223, p=0.060) independently predicted 1 year survival. Patients were stratified into categories of death risk, using ROC curves for the variables MELD and HVPG. Patients with MELD<10 had a low probability of death after TIPS (n=6, 16% mortality); patients with HVPG <16 mmHg (n=6) had no mortality. Maximum risk of death was found in patients with MELD score 19 (n=16, 31% mortality) and in those with HVPG 25 mmHg (n=27, 26% mortality). Conclusions: TIPS increases overall survival in patients with refractory ascites. Liver function (assessed by MELD), necroinflammation (AST) and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of survival; patients with MELD>19 and HVPG>25 mmHg are at highest risk of death after TIPS

Factors predicting protracted improvement after pallidal DBS for primary dystonia: the role of age and disease duration

In many patients, optimal results after pallidal deep brain stimulation (DBS) for primary dystonia may appear over several months, possibly beyond 1 year after implant. In order to elucidate the factors predicting such protracted clinical effect, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 44 patients with primary dystonia and bilateral pallidal DBS implants. Patients with fixed skeletal deformities, as well as those with a history of prior ablative procedures, were excluded. The Burke-Fahn-Marsden Dystonia Rating Scale (BFMDRS) scores at baseline, 1 and 3 years after DBS were used to evaluate clinical outcome. All subjects showed a significant improvement after DBS implants (mean BFMDRS improvement of 74.9% at 1 year and 82.6% at 3 years). Disease duration (DD, median 15 years, range 2-42) and age at surgery (AS, median 31 years, range 10-59) showed a significant negative correlation with DBS outcome at 1 and 3 years. A partition analysis, using DD and AS, clustered subjects into three groups: (1) younger subjects with shorter DD (n = 19, AS < 27, DD ? 17); (2) older subjects with shorter DD (n = 8, DD ? 17, AS ? 27); (3) older subjects with longer DD (n = 17, DD > 17, AS ? 27). Younger patients with short DD benefitted more and faster than older patients, who however continued to improve 10% on average 1 year after DBS implants. Our data suggest that subjects with short DD may expect to achieve a better general outcome than those with longer DD and that AS may influence the time necessary to achieve maximal clinical response.

Factors predicting prognosis and recurrence in patients with esophago-gastric adenocarcinoma and histopathological response with less than 10 % residual tumor

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant treatment is an accepted standard approach for treating locally advanced esophago-gastric adenocarcinomas. Despite a response of the primary tumor, a significant percentage dies from tumor recurrence. The aim of this retrospective exploratory study from two academic centers was to identify predictors of survival and recurrence in histopathologically responding patients. METHODS: Two hundred thirty one patients with adenocarcinomas (esophagus: n = 185, stomach: n = 46, cT3/4, cN0/+, cM0) treated with preoperative chemotherapy (n = 212) or chemoradiotherapy (n = 19) followed by resection achieved a histopathological response (regression 1a: no residual tumor (n = 58), and regression 1b < 10 % residual tumor (n = 173)). RESULTS: The estimated median overall survival was 92.4 months (5-year survival, 56.6 %) for all patients. For patients with regression 1a, median survival is not reached (5-year survival, 71.6 %) compared to patients with regression 1b with 75.3 months median (5-year survival, 52.2 %) (p = 0.031). Patients with a regression 1a had lymph node metastases in 19.0 versus 33.7 % in regression 1b. The ypT-category (p < 0.001), the M-category (p = 0.005), and the type of treatment (p = 0.04) were found to be independent prognostic factors in R0-resected patients. The recurrence rate was 31.7 % (n = 66) (local, 39.4 %; peritoneal carcinomatosis, 25.7 %; distant metastases, 50 %). Recurrence was predicted by female gender (p = 0.013), ypT-category (p = 0.007), and M-category (p = 0.003) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Response of the primary tumor does not guarantee recurrence-free long-term survival, but histopathological complete responders have better prognosis compared to partial responders. Established prognostic factors strongly influence the outcome, which could, in the future, be used for stratification of adjuvant treatment approaches. Increasing the rate of histopathological complete responders is a valid endpoint for future clinical trials investigating new drugs.

Surgical hip dislocation for treatment of femoroacetabular impingement: factors predicting 5-year survivorship.

BACKGROUND Patients with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) often develop pain, impaired function, and progression of osteoarthritis (OA); this is commonly treated using surgical hip dislocation, femoral neck and acetabular rim osteoplasty, and labral reattachment. However, results with these approaches, in particular risk factors for OA progression and conversion to THA, have varied. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked if patients undergoing surgical hip dislocation with labral reattachment to treat FAI experienced (1) improved hip pain and function; and (2) prevention of OA progression; we then determined (3) the survival of the hip at 5-year followup with the end points defined as the need for conversion to THA, progression of OA by at least one Tönnis grade, and/or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15; and calculated (4) factors predicting these end points. METHODS Between July 2001 and March 2003, we performed 146 of these procedures in 121 patients. After excluding 35 patients (37 hips) who had prior open surgery and 11 patients (12 hips) who had a diagnosis of Perthes disease, this study evaluated the 75 patients (97 hips, 66% of the procedures we performed during that time) who had a mean followup of 6 years (range, 5-7 years). We used the anterior impingement test to assess pain, the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score to assess function, and the Tönnis grade to assess OA. Survival and predictive factors were calculated using the method of Kaplan and Meier and Cox regression, respectively. RESULTS The proportion of patients with anterior impingement decreased from 95% to 17% (p < 0.001); the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score improved from a mean of 15 to 17 (p < 0.001). Seven hips (7%) showed progression of OA and another seven hips (7%) converted to THA Survival free from any end point (THA, progression of OA, or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel < 15) of well-functioning joints at 5 years was 91%; and excessive acetabular rim trimming, preoperative OA, increased age at operation, and weight were predictive factors for the end points. CONCLUSIONS At 5-year followup, 91% of patients with FAI treated with surgical hip dislocation, osteoplasty, and labral reattachment showed no THA, progression of OA, or an insufficient clinical result, but excessive acetabular trimming, OA, increased age, and weight were associated with early failure. To prevent early deterioration of the joint, excessive rim trimming or trimming of borderline dysplastic hips has to be avoided.