Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Can the trabecular bone score be considered as a major clinical risk factor of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis.

To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist. Out of these factors many of them are indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 cross-sectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest compared with the middle TBS tertile was 1.55[1.46-1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households’ classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Hyperlipidemia as a risk factor of renal allograft function impairment

In this study, the graft outcome in renal allograft recipients with [high cholesterol group (HCG), n = 30] or without [normal cholesterol group (NCG), n = 42] hypercholesterolemia and with [high triglyceride group (HTG), n = 33] or without [normal triglyceride group (NTG), n = 36] hypertriglyceridemia were prospectively compared. At 6 months post-transplantation, no significant difference was observed between the groups (NTG compared with HTG, and NCG compared with HCG) regarding age, presence of arterial hypertension, kind of donor (living related or cadaveric), immunosuppressive therapy, number of rejection episodes per patient, frequency of patients with acute cellular rejection, prevalence of patients with diabetes mellitus or proteinuria > 3 g/24 h, and mean serum creatinine. The probability of doubling serum creatinine during follow-up was statistically different between NTG and HTG (12 months: NTG = 0.03, HTG = 0.15; 36 months: NTG = 0.08, HTG = 0.33; 60 months: NTG = 0.08, HTG = 0.48; and 120 months: NTG = 0.18, HTG = 0.48), but not between NCG and HCG (12 months: NCG = 0.05, HCG = 0.13; 36 months: NCG = 0.13, HCG = 0.24; 60 months: NCG = 0.19, HCG = 0.31; 84 months: NCG = 0.27, HCG = 0.31). There was no significant difference in actuarial graft survival between HCG and NCG or between NTG and HTG. Hypertriglyceridemia, but not hypercholesterolemia, was associated with loss of graft function.

Anemia at one year is an independent risk factor of graft survival

Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.

Von Willebrand Factor Improves Risk Prediction in Addition to N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients Referred to Coronary Angiography and Signs and Symptoms of Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.

Evaluation of genome-wide loci of iron metabolism in hereditary hemochromatosis identifies PCSK7 as a host risk factor of liver cirrhosis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed genetic determinants of iron metabolism, but correlation of these with clinical phenotypes is pending. Homozygosity for HFE C282Y is the predominant genetic risk factor for hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) and may cause liver cirrhosis. However, this genotype has a low penetrance. Thus, detection of yet unknown genetic markers that identify patients at risk of developing severe liver disease is necessary for better prevention. Genetic loci associated with iron metabolism (TF, TMPRSS6, PCSK7, TFR2 and Chr2p14) in recent GWAS and liver fibrosis (PNPLA3) in recent meta-analysis were analyzed for association with either liver cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis in 148 German HFE C282Y homozygotes. Replication of associations was sought in additional 499 Austrian/Swiss and 112 HFE C282Y homozygotes from Sweden. Only variant rs236918 in the PCSK7 gene (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 7) was associated with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis (P = 1.02 × 10(-5)) in the German cohort with genotypic odds ratios of 3.56 (95% CI 1.29-9.77) for CG heterozygotes and 5.38 (95% CI 2.39-12.10) for C allele carriers. Association between rs236918 and cirrhosis was confirmed in Austrian/Swiss HFE C282Y homozygotes (P = 0.014; ORallelic = 1.82 (95% CI 1.12-2.95) but not in Swedish patients. Post hoc combined analyses of German/Swiss/Austrian patients with available liver histology (N = 244, P = 0.00014, ORallelic = 2.84) and of males only (N = 431, P = 2.17 × 10(-5), ORallelic = 2.54) were consistent with the premier finding. Association between rs236918 and cirrhosis was not confirmed in alcoholic cirrhotics, suggesting specificity of this genetic risk factor for HH. PCSK7 variant rs236918 is a risk factor for cirrhosis in HH patients homozygous for the HFE C282Y mutation.

Integration of risk factor interventions : two reports to the Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion.

"November 1986."

Assessing the quality of risk factor survey data: lessons from the WHO MONICA Project

Background and purpose Survey data quality is a combination of the representativeness of the sample, the accuracy and precision of measurements, data processing and management with several subcomponents in each. The purpose of this paper is to show how, in the final risk factor surveys of the WHO MONICA Project, information on data quality were obtained, quantified, and used in the analysis. Methods and results In the WHO MONICA (Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project, the information about the data quality components was documented in retrospective quality assessment reports. On the basis of the documented information and the survey data, the quality of each data component was assessed and summarized using quality scores. The quality scores were used in sensitivity testing of the results both by excluding populations with low quality scores and by weighting the data by its quality scores. Conclusions Detailed documentation of all survey procedures with standardized protocols, training, and quality control are steps towards optimizing data quality. Quantifying data quality is a further step. Methods used in the WHO MONICA Project could be adopted to improve quality in other health surveys.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Importance of risk factor management in diabetic patients and reduction in Stage B heart failure

BACKGROUND: A number of studies have demonstrated the presence of a diabetic cardiomyopathy, increasing the risk of heart failure development in this population. Improvements in present-day risk factor control may have modified the risk of diabetes-associated cardiomyopathy.

AIM: We sought to determine the contemporary impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the prevalence of cardiomyopathy in at-risk patients with and without adjustment for risk factor control.

DESIGN: A cross-sectional study in a population at risk for heart failure.

METHODS: Those with diabetes were compared to those with other cardiovascular risk factors, unmatched, matched for age and gender and then matched for age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol.

RESULTS: In total, 1399 patients enrolled in the St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) cohort were included. About 543 participants had an established history of DM. In the whole sample, Stage B heart failure (asymptomatic cardiomyopathy) was not found more frequently among the diabetic cohort compared to those without diabetes [113 (20.8%) vs. 154 (18.0%), P = 0.22], even when matched for age and gender. When controlling for these risk factors and risk factor control Stage B was found to be more prevalent in those with diabetes [88 (22.2%)] compared to those without diabetes [65 (16.4%), P = 0.048].

CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients with established risk factors for Stage B heart failure superior risk factor management among the diabetic population appears to dilute the independent diabetic insult to left ventricular structure and function, underlining the importance and benefit of effective risk factor control in this population on cardiovascular outcomes.

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households’ classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Prevalence and social distribution of risk factors for chronic noncommunicable diseases in Brazil

OBJETIVOS: Evaluar los factores de riesgo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) e identificar las desigualdades sociales relacionadas con su distribución en la población adulta brasileña.MÉTODOS: Se estudiaron los factores de riesgo de ECNT (entre ellos el consumo de tabaco, el sobrepeso y la obesidad, el bajo consumo de frutas y vegetales [BCFV], la insuficiente actividad física en el tiempo de ocio [IAFTO], el estilo de vida sedentario y el consumo excesivo de alcohol) en una muestra probabilística de 54369 adultos de 26 capitales estatales de Brasil y el Distrito Federal en 2006. Se utilizó el Sistema de Vigilancia de los Factores Protectores y de Riesgo para Enfermedades Crónicas No Transmisibles por Entrevistas Telefónicas (VIGITEL), un sistema de encuestas telefónicas asistido por computadora, y se calcularon las prevalencias ajustadas por la edad para las tendencias en cuanto al nivel educacional mediante la regresión de Poisson con modelos lineales. RESULTADOS: Los hombres informaron mayor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, BCFV, estilo de vida sedentario y consumo excesivo de alcohol que las mujeres, pero menos IAFTO. En los hombres, la educación se asoció con un mayor sobrepeso y un estilo de vida sedentario, pero con un menor consumo de tabaco, BCFV e IAFTO. En las mujeres, la educación se asoció con un menor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, obesidad, BCFV e IAFTO, pero aumentó el estilo de vida sedentario CONCLUSIONES: En Brasil, la prevalencia de factores de riesgo para ECNT (excepto IAFTO) es mayor en los hombres que en las mujeres. En ambos sexos, el nivel de educación influye en la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo para ECNT

Incidence of stroke subtypes, prognosis and prevalence of risk factors in Joinville, Brazil: a 2 year community based study

Background: There have been few population based studies on stroke risk factors and prognosis conducted in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate, over a 2 year period, the incidence of the subtypes of first ever stroke, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and functional prognosis in a city located in the south of Brazil. Methods: The period from January 2005 to December 2006 was evaluated prospectively by compiling data on first ever stroke cases, medications used prior to the morbidity and the incidence of traditional risk factors. The annual incidence was adjusted for age using the direct method. Patients were monitored for at least 6 months following the event. Results: Of 1323 stroke cases, 759 were first ever stroke cases. Of these, 610 were classified as infarctions, 94 as intracerebral haemorrhage and 55 as subarachnoid haemorrhage. The crude incidence rate per 100 000 inhabitants was 61.8 for infarction (95% CI 57.0 to 66.9), 9.5 for intracerebral haemorrhage (95% CI 7.7 to 11.6) and 5.6 for subarachnoid haemorrhage (95% CI 4.2 to 7.3). The 30 day case fatality was 19.1%. The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor was arterial hypertension. By post-stroke month 6, 25% had died (95% CI 21.4 to 29.1) whereas 61.5% had regained their independence (95% CI 56.2 to 68.3). Conclusions: Case fatality rate, prognosis and incidence adjusted for stroke subtypes were similar to those found in other population based studies. The prevalence rates of ischaemic heart disease, dyslipidaemia, arterial hypertension and diabetes suggest that Joinville presents a mixed pattern of cardiovascular risk, a pattern seen in developed and developing countries alike.