Short term load forecasting using interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy may drop due to presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with extra degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling prevailing uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models appropriately approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks used in this study.

Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems for load forecasting : a comparative study

Accurate short term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision-making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with additional degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models precisely approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks and traditional type-1 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) FLSs.

Prediction interval construction using interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

This study proposes a novel non-parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) using interval type-2 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy logic systems (IT2 TSK FLSs). The key idea in the proposed method is to treat the left and right end points of the type-reduced set as the lower and upper bounds of a PI. This allows us to construct PIs without making any special assumption about the data distribution. A new training algorithm is developed to satisfy conditions imposed by the associated confidence level on PIs. Proper adjustment of premise and consequent parameters of IT2 TSK FLSs is performed through the minimization of a PI-based objective function, rather than traditional error-based cost functions. This new cost function covers both validity and informativeness aspects of PIs. A metaheuristic method is applied for minimization of the non-linear non-differentiable cost function. Quantitative measures are applied for assessing the quality of PIs constructed using IT2 TSK FLSs. The demonstrated results for four benchmark case studies with homogenous and heterogeneous noise clearly show the proposed method is capable of generating high quality PIs useful for decision-making.

A new neural network-based type reduction algorithm for interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

This paper introduces a new type reduction (TR) algorithm for interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2 FLSs). Flexibility and adaptiveness are the key features of the proposed non-parametric algorithm. Lower and upper firing strengths of rules as well as their consequent coefficients are fed into a neural network (NN). NN output is a crisp value that corresponds to the defuzzified output of IT2 FLSs. The NN type reducer is trained through minimization of an error-based cost function with the purpose of improving modelling and forecasting performance of IT2 FLS models. Simulation results indicate that application of the proposed TR algorithm greatly enhances modelling and forecasting performance of IT2 FLS models. This benefit is achieved in no cost, as the computational requirement of the proposed algorithm is less than or at most equivalent to traditional TR algorithms.

Optimal design of traffic signal controller using neural networks and fuzzy logic systems

This paper aims at optimally adjusting a set of green times for traffic lights in a single intersection with the purpose of minimizing travel delay time and traffic congestion. Neural network (NN) and fuzzy logic system (FLS) are two methods applied to develop intelligent traffic timing controller. For this purpose, an intersection is considered and simulated as an intelligent agent that learns how to set green times in each cycle based on the traffic information. The training approach and data for both these learning methods are similar. Both methods use genetic algorithm to tune their parameters during learning. Finally, The performance of the two intelligent learning methods is compared with the performance of simple fixed-time method. Simulation results indicate that both intelligent methods significantly reduce the total delay in the network compared to the fixed-time method.

EEG signal classification for BCI applications by wavelets and interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems

The nonlinear, noisy and outlier characteristics of electroencephalography (EEG) signals inspire the employment of fuzzy logic due to its power to handle uncertainty. This paper introduces an approach to classify motor imagery EEG signals using an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) in a combination with wavelet transformation. Wavelet coefficients are ranked based on the statistics of the receiver operating characteristic curve criterion. The most informative coefficients serve as inputs to the IT2FLS for the classification task. Two benchmark datasets, named Ia and Ib, downloaded from the brain-computer interface (BCI) competition II, are employed for the experiments. Classification performance is evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F-measure. Widely-used classifiers, including feedforward neural network, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbours, AdaBoost and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are also implemented for comparisons. The wavelet-IT2FLS method considerably dominates the comparable classifiers on both datasets, and outperforms the best performance on the Ia and Ib datasets reported in the BCI competition II by 1.40% and 2.27% respectively. The proposed approach yields great accuracy and requires low computational cost, which can be applied to a real-time BCI system for motor imagery data analysis.

Applying fuzzy logic systems in the estimation of crossflow filtration processes

The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behavior. In this paper, a system based on fuzzy logic systems is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the fuzzy approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach.

A systematic design of interval type-2 fuzzy logic system using extreme learning machine for electricity load demand forecasting

This paper presents a novel design of interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2FLS) by utilizing the theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) for electricity load demand forecasting. ELM has become a popular learning algorithm for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFN). From the functional equivalence between the SLFN and fuzzy inference system, a hybrid of fuzzy-ELM has gained attention of the researchers. This paper extends the concept of fuzzy-ELM to an IT2FLS based on ELM (IT2FELM). In the proposed design the antecedent membership function parameters of the IT2FLS are generated randomly, whereas the consequent part parameters are determined analytically by the Moore-Penrose pseudo inverse. The ELM strategy ensures fast learning of the IT2FLS as well as optimality of the parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed design of IT2FLS is demonstrated with the application of forecasting nonlinear and chaotic data sets. Nonlinear data of electricity load from the Australian National Electricity Market for the Victoria region and from the Ontario Electricity Market are considered here. The proposed model is also applied to forecast Mackey-glass chaotic time series data. Comparative analysis of the proposed model is conducted with some traditional models such as neural networks (NN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to verify the structure of the proposed design of IT2FLS an alternate design of IT2FLS based on Kalman filter (KF) is also utilized for the comparison purposes.

Training of interval type-2 fuzzy logic system using extreme learning machine for load forecasting

Extreme learning machine (ELM) is originally proposed for single- hidden layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFN). From the functional equivalence of fuzzy logic systems and SLFN, the fuzzy logic systems can be interpreted as a special case of SLFN under some mild conditions. Hence the fuzzy logic systems can be trained using SLFN's learning algorithms. Considering the same equivalence, ELM is utilized here to train interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2FLSs). Based on the working principle of the ELM, the parameters of the antecedent of IT2FLSs are randomly generated while the consequent part of IT2FLSs is optimized using Moore-Penrose generalized inverse of ELM. Application of the developed model to electricity load forecasting is another novelty of the research work. Experimental results shows better forecasting performance of the proposed model over the two frequently used forecasting models.

Fuzzy-logic based frequency controller for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems

Displacement of conventional synchronous generators by non-inertial units such as wind or solar generators will result in reduced-system inertia affecting under-frequency response. Frequency control is important to avoid equipment damage, load shedding, and possible blackouts. Wind generators along with energy storage systems can be used to improve the frequency response of low-inertia power system. This paper proposes a fuzzy-logic based frequency controller (FFC) for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems (wind-storage system) to improve the primary frequency response in future low-inertia hybrid power system. The proposed controller provides bidirectional real power injection using system frequency deviations and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF). Moreover, FFC ensures optimal use of energy from wind farms and storage units by eliminating the inflexible de-loading of wind energy and minimizing the required storage capacity. The efficacy of the proposed FFC is verified on the low-inertia hybrid power system.

Web-based occupant feedback for building energy management systems using fuzzy logic

This paper describes the development and validation of a novel web-based interface for the gathering of feedback from building occupants about their environmental discomfort including signs of Sick Building Syndrome (SBS). The gathering of such feedback may enable better targeting of environmental discomfort down to the individual as well as the early detection and subsequently resolution by building services of more complex issues such as SBS. The occupant's discomfort is interpreted and converted to air-conditioning system set points using Fuzzy Logic. Experimental results from a multi-zone air-conditioning test rig have been included in this paper.

Distributed fuzzy logic for building management systems using local operating networks

This paper describes the development of an experimental distributed fuzzy control system for heating and ventilation (HVAC) systems within a building. Each local control loop is affected by a number of local variables, as well as information from neighboring controllers. By including this additional information it is hoped that a more equal allocation of resources can be achieved.

Incorporating semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance Clinical Decision Support Systems

In order to enhance the quality of care, healthcare organisations are increasingly resorting to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs), which provide physicians with appropriate health care decisions or recommendations. However, how to explicitly represent the diverse vague medical knowledge and effectively reason in the decision-making process are still problems we are confronted. In this paper, we incorporate semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance CDSSs with the aim of providing both the abilities of describing medical domain concepts contextually and reasoning with vague knowledge. A semiotically inspired fuzzy CDSSs framework is presented, based on which the vague knowledge representation and reasoning process are demonstrated.