Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Vector incrimination and effects of antimalarial drugs on malaria transmission and control in the Amazon Basin of Brazil

World ecosystems differ significantly and a multidisciplinary malaria control approach must be adjusted to meet these requirements. These include a comprehensive understanding of the malaria vectors, their behavior, seasonal distribution and abundance, susceptibility to insecticides (physiological and behavioral), methods to reduce the numbers of human gametocyte carriers through effective health care systems and antimalarial drug treatment, urban malaria transmission versus rural or forest malaria transmission, and the impact of vaccine development. Many malaria vectors are members of species complexes and individual relationship to malaria transmission, seasonal distribution, bitting behavior, etc. is poorly understood. Additionaly, malaria patients are not examined for circulating gametocytes and both falciparum and vivax malaria patients may be highly infective to mosquitoes after treatment with currently used antimalarial drugs. Studies on the physiological and behavioral effects of DDT and other insecticides are inconclusive and need to be evalusted.

Man biting rate seasonal variation of malaria vectors in Roraima, Brazil

Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

Entomological characterization and natural infection of anophelines in an area of the Atlantic Forest with autochthonous malaria cases in mountainous region of Espírito Santo State, Brazil

No Espírito Santo, os casos de malária autóctone estão distribuídos na região serrana próximo aos fragmentos de Mata Atlântica. Uma vez que alguns aspectos da doença são obscuros, a detecção das possíveis espécies de vetores pode auxiliar na elucidação de incertezas epidemiológicas. Estudos entomológicos e de infecção natural foram realizados com anofelinos (Diptera: Culicidae) capturados no município de Santa Tereza, ES. Capturas mensais foram realizadas de março de 2004 a fevereiro de 2006. Armadilhas CDC-CO2 foram utilizadas do crepúsculo (18:00h) ao amanhecer (6:00h), para capturar anofelinos nos seguintes habitats: próximo ao domicílio e área aberta (solo), margem e interior da mata (solo e copa). Armadilhas Shannon também foram utilizadas nos mesmos locais que as de CDC-CO2. Capturou-se o total de 2.290 anofelinos distribuídos em 10 espécies. A maior frequência relativa foi de Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii Dyar & Knab / A.(K.) homunculus Komp, sendo a maioria capturada em CDC-CO2 instalada na copa da mata. A principal espécie capturada em armadilha Shannon foi A.(Nyssorhynchus) strodei Root. O maior número de anofelinos foi capturado entre julho e setembro das 18:00h às 22:00h. Provavelmente A.(K.) cruzii é responsável pela transmissão da malária dentro ou próximo aos fragmentos de Mata Atlântica. Entretanto, a participação de outras espécies não pode ser ignorada, visto que 53 por cento da amostragem foi constituída pelo subgênero Nyssorhynchus. A detecção de Plasmodium vivax no tórax de A. cruzii, A. parvus (Chagas) e A. galvaoi Causey, Deane & Deane por meio de PCR reforça esse argumento

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii (DIPTERA: CULICIDAE) IN PERIDOMICILIARY AREA DURING ASYMPTOMATIC MALARIA TRANSMISSION IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST: MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION OF BLOOD-MEAL SOURCES INDICATES HUMANS AS PRIMARY INTERMEDIATE HOSTS

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii has been implicated as the primary vector of human and simian malarias out of the Brazilian Amazon and specifically in the Atlantic Forest regions. The presence of asymptomatic human cases, parasite-positive wild monkeys and the similarity between the parasites infecting them support the discussion whether these infections can be considered as a zoonosis. Although many aspects of the biology of An. cruzii have already been addressed, studies conducted during outbreaks of malaria transmission, aiming at the analysis of blood feeding and infectivity, are missing in the Atlantic Forest. This study was conducted in the location of Palestina, Juquitiba, where annually the majority of autochthonous human cases are notified in the Atlantic Forest of the state of São Paulo. Peridomiciliary sites were selected for collection of mosquitoes in a perimeter of up to 100 m around the residences of human malaria cases. The mosquitoes were analyzed with the purpose of molecular identification of blood-meal sources and to examine the prevalence of Plasmodium. A total of 13,441 females of An. (Ker.) cruzii were collected. The minimum infection rate was calculated at 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively, for P. vivax and P. malariae and only human blood was detected in the blood-fed mosquitoes analyzed. This data reinforce the hypothesis that asymptomatic human carriers are the main source of anopheline infection in the peridomiciliary area, making the probability of zoonotic transmission less likely to happen.

The vertical dispersión of Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzi in a forest in southern Brazil suggests that human cases of malaria of simian origin might be expected

By staining females of Anopheles cruzi with fluorescent coloured powders in a forest in the State of Santa Catarina, we showed that they move from canopy to ground and vice-versa to feed. This suggests that in areas where this mosquito is a vector of human and simian malarias sporadic infections of man with monkey plasmodia might be expected.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

Malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, an Atlantic Forest area: an assessment using the health surveillance service

The lethality of malaria in the extra-Amazonian region is more than 70 times higher than in Amazonia itself. Recently, several studies have shown that autochthonous malaria is not a rare event in the Brazilian southeastern states in the Atlantic Forest biome. Information about autochthonous malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) is scarce. This study aims to assess malaria cases reported to the Health Surveillance System of the State of Rio de Janeiro between 2000-2010. An average of 90 cases per year had parasitological malaria confirmation by thick smear. The number of malaria notifications due to Plasmodium falciparum increased over time. Imported cases reported during the period studied were spread among 51% of the municipalities (counties) of the state. Only 35 cases (4.3%) were autochthonous, which represents an average of 3.8 new cases per year. Eleven municipalities reported autochthonous cases; within these, six could be characterised as areas of residual or new foci of malaria from the Atlantic Forest system. The other 28 municipalities could become receptive for transmission reintroduction. Cases occurred during all periods of the year, but 62.9% of cases were in the first semester of each year. Assessing vulnerability and receptivity conditions and vector ecology is imperative to establish the real risk of malaria reintroduction in RJ.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Natural infection in anopheline species and its implications for autochthonous malaria in the Atlantic forest in Brazil

Abstract Background A descriptive study was carried out in an area of the Atlantic Forest with autochthonous malaria in the Parelheiros subdistrict on the periphery of the municipality of São Paulo to identify anopheline fauna and anophelines naturally infected with Plasmodium as well as to discuss their role in this peculiar epidemiological context. Methods Entomological captures were made from May 2009 to April 2011 using Shannon traps and automatic CDC traps in four areas chosen for their different patterns of human presence and incidences of malaria (anthropic zone 1, anthropic zone 2, transition zone and sylvatic zone). Natural Plasmodium infection was detected by nested PCR based on amplification of the 18S rRNA gene. Results In total, 6,073 anophelines were collected from May 2009 to April 2011, and six species were identified in the four zones. Anopheles cruzii was the predominant species in the three environments but was more abundant in the sylvatic zone. Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii specimens from the anthropic and sylvatic zones were positive for P. vivax and P. malariae. An. (Ker.) bellator, An. (Nys.) triannulatus, An. (Nys.) strodei, An. (Nys.) lutzi and An. (Ano) maculipes were found in small numbers. Of these, An. (Nys.) triannulatus and An. (Nys.) lutzi, which were collected in the anthropic zone, were naturally infected with P. vivax while An. (Nys.) triannulatus from the anthropic zones and An. (Nys.) strodei from the transition zone were positive for P. malariae. Conclusion These results confirm that Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii plays an important role as a major Plasmodium vector. However, the finding of other naturally infected species may indicate that secondary vectors are also involved in the transmission of malaria in the study areas. These findings can be expected to help in the implementation of new measures to control autochthonous malaria in areas of the Atlantic Forest.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.