Dynamic fator Models for bivariate Count Data: an application to fire activity

The study of forest re activity, in its several aspects, is essencial to understand the phenomenon and to prevent environmental public catastrophes. In this context the analysis of monthly number of res along several years is one aspect to have into account in order to better comprehend this tematic. The goal of this work is to analyze the monthly number of forest res in the neighboring districts of Aveiro and Coimbra, Portugal, through dynamic factor models for bivariate count series. We use a bayesian approach, through MCMC methods, to estimate the model parameters as well as to estimate the common latent factor to both series.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Postglacial vegetation, fire and climate dynamics at Central Chilean Patagonia (Lake Shaman, 44ºS)

A 19 cal ka BP pollen and charcoal record from Lake Shaman (44°S; 71°W, Chile) was analyzed to establish vegetation, fire and climate dynamics of the forest-steppe ecotone in Central Chilean Patagonia. Lake Shaman record indicates that the upper Río Cisnes valley was free of ice at around 19 cal ka BP. From this date and until 14.8 cal ka BP, a grass steppe with high proportions of shrubs associated to colder and drier conditions than present developed in this area. A continuous increase of Nothofagus accompanied by a decline in the steppe shrubs and sudden dominance of paludal over aquatic plants from 11 cal ka BP was associated to effective moisture increase but still under modern values. The replacement of the cold-dry grass-shrub steppe by a similar-than-present forest-steppe ecotone suggests an increase in temperature indicating the onset of the Holocene. At the same time, moderate fire activity suggested by the charcoal record could be related to major fuel availability as consequence of Nothofagus forest expansion. Between 8 and 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates the easternmost position of the forest-steppe ecotone suggesting the highest effective moisture with the establishment of seasonality between 5 and 3 cal ka BP. From 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates a retraction of the forest-steppe ecotone accompanied by a high pollen record variability and an increased fire activity. These late changes suggest decreased effective moisture associated with a high climatic variability. At regional and extra-regional scale, climatic changes at Lake Shaman's record are mostly associated to changes (latitudinal shifts and/or strengthening/weakening) of past Southern Westerlies that were previously recorded along Patagonia from the Lateglacial to the mid-Holocene. During the Late Holocene, a regional pattern characterized by high record variability emerges throughout Central Chilean Patagonia. This variability would be related to (1) low magnitude Southern Westerlies changes probably associated to ENSO and/or SAM or (2) the complex relationships between vegetation, fire and human occupations during the last 3 cal ka.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

South American seasonally-dry tropical forests (SDTF) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12,000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined, but severe regional droughts persisted through the mid-Holocene, SDTF, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTF are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.

Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core

Biomass burning is a major source of greenhouse gases and influences regional to global climate. Pre-industrial fire-history records from black carbon, charcoal and other proxies provide baseline estimates of biomass burning at local to global scales spanning millennia, and are thus useful to examine the role of fire in the carbon cycle and climate system. Here we use the specific biomarker levoglucosan together with black carbon and ammonium concentrations from the North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) ice cores (77.49° N, 51.2° W; 2480 m a.s.l) over the past 2000 years to infer changes in boreal fire activity. Increases in boreal fire activity over the periods 1000–1300 CE and decreases during 700–900 CE coincide with high-latitude NH temperature changes. Levoglucosan concentrations in the NEEM ice cores peak between 1500 and 1700 CE, and most levoglucosan spikes coincide with the most extensive central and northern Asian droughts of the past millennium. Many of these multi-annual droughts are caused by Asian monsoon failures, thus suggesting a connection between low- and high-latitude climate processes. North America is a primary source of biomass burning aerosols due to its relative proximity to the Greenland Ice Cap. During major fire events, however, isotopic analyses of dust, back trajectories and links with levoglucosan peaks and regional drought reconstructions suggest that Siberia is also an important source of pyrogenic aerosols to Greenland.

The role of human-induced fire and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivation on the long-term landscape dynamics of the southern Swiss Alps

Changes in fire occurrence during the last decades in the southern Swiss Alps make knowledge on fire history essential to understand future evolution of the ecosystem composition and functioning. In this context, palaeoecology provides useful insights into processes operating at decadal-to-millennial time scales, such as the response of plant communities to intensified fire disturbances during periods of cultural change. We provide a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen series from Guèr, a well-dated peat sequence at mid-elevation (832 m.a.s.l.) in southern Switzerland, where the presence of local settlements is documented since the late Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Quantitative fire reconstruction shows that fire activity sharply increased from the Neolithic period (1–3 episodes/1000 year) to the late Bronze and Iron Age (7–9 episodes/1000 year), leading to extensive clearance of the former mixed deciduous forest (Alnus glutinosa, Betula, deciduous Quercus). The increase in anthropogenic pollen indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata) together with macroscopic charcoal suggests anthropogenic rather than climatic forcing as the main cause of the observed vegetation shift. Fire and controlled burning were extensively used during the late Roman Times and early Middle Ages to promote the introduction and establishment of chestnut (Castanea sativa) stands, which provided an important wood and food supply. Fire occurrence declined markedly (from 9 to 5–6 episodes/1000 year) during late Middle Ages because of fire suppression, biomass removal by human population, and landscape fragmentation. Land-abandonment during the last decades allowed forest to partly re-expand (mainly Alnus glutinosa, Betula) and fire frequency to increase.

Combining charcoal sediment and molecular markers to infer a Holocene fire history in the Maya Lowlands of Petén, Guatemala

Vegetation changes in the Maya Lowlands during the Holocene are a result of changing climate conditions, solely anthropogenic activities, or interactions of both factors. As a consequence, it is difficult to assess how tropical ecosystems will cope with projected changes in precipitation and land-use intensification over the next decades. We investigated the role offire during the Holocene by combining macroscopic charcoal and the molecular fire proxies levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan. Combining these two different fire proxies allows a more robust understanding of the complex history of fire re- gimes at different spatial scales during the Holocene. In order to infer changes in past biomass burning, we analysed a lake sediment core from Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala, and compared our results with millennial-scale vegetation and climate change available in the area. We detected three periods of high fire activity during the Holocene: 9500 e 6000 cal yr BP, 3700 cal yr BP and 2700 cal yr BP. We attribute the first maximum mostly to climate conditions and the last maximum to human activities. The rapid change between burned vegetation types at the 3700 cal yr BP fire maximum may result from human activity.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Vegetation and fire history of coastal north-eastern Sardinia (Italy) under changing Holocene climates and land use

Little is known about the vegetation and fire history of Sardinia, and especially the long-term history of the thermo-Mediterranean belt that encompasses its entire coastal lowlands. A new sedimentary record from a coastal lake based on pollen, spores, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal analysis is used to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history in north-eastern Sardinia. During the mid-Holocene (c. 8,100–5,300 cal bp), the vegetation around Stagno di Sa Curcurica was characterised by dense Erica scoparia and E. arborea stands, which were favoured by high fire activity. Fire incidence declined and evergreen broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex expanded at the beginning of the late Holocene. We relate the observed vegetation and fire dynamics to climatic change, specifically moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters after 5,300 cal bp. Agricultural activities occurred since the Neolithic and intensified after c. 7,000 cal bp. Around 2,750 cal bp, a further decline of fire incidence and Erica communities occurred, while Quercus ilex expanded and open-land communities became more abundant. This vegetation shift coincided with the historically documented beginning of Phoenician period, which was followed by Punic and Roman civilizations in Sardinia. The vegetational change at around 2,750 cal bp was possibly advantaged by a further shift to moister and cooler summers and drier and milder winters. Triggers for climate changes at 5,300 and 2,750 cal bp may have been gradual, orbitally-induced changes in summer and winter insolation, as well as centennial-scale atmospheric reorganizations. Open evergreen broadleaved forests persisted until the twentieth century, when they were partly substituted by widespread artificial pine plantations. Our results imply that highly flammable Erica vegetation, as reconstructed for the mid-Holocene, could re-emerge as a dominant vegetation type due to increasing drought and fire, as anticipated under global change conditions.

Holocene vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily (Italy)

Knowledge about vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily is scanty. We analysed five sites to fill this gap and used terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish robust radiocarbon chronologies. Palynological records from Gorgo Tondo, Gorgo Lungo, Marcato Cixé, Urgo Pietra Giordano and Gorgo Pollicino show that under natural or near natural conditions, deciduous forests (Quercus pubescens, Q. cerris, Fraxinus ornus, Ulmus), that included a substantial portion of evergreen broadleaved species (Q. suber, Q. ilex, Hedera helix), prevailed in the upper meso-mediterranean belt. Mesophilous deciduous and evergreen broadleaved trees (Fagus sylvatica, Ilex aquifolium) dominated in the natural or quasi-natural forests of the oro-mediterranean belt. Forests were repeatedly opened for agricultural purposes. Fire activity was closely associated with farming, providing evidence that burning was a primary land use tool since Neolithic times. Land use and fire activity intensified during the Early Neolithic at 5000 bc, at the onset of the Bronze Age at 2500 bc and at the onset of the Iron Age at 800 bc. Our data and previous studies suggest that the large majority of open land communities in Sicily, from the coastal lowlands to the mountain areas below the thorny-cushion Astragalus belt (ca. 1,800 m a.s.l.), would rapidly develop into forests if land use ceased. Mesophilous Fagus-Ilex forests developed under warm mid Holocene conditions and were resilient to the combined impacts of humans and climate. The past ecology suggests a resilience of these summer-drought adapted communities to climate warming of about 2 °C. Hence, they may be particularly suited to provide heat and drought-adapted Fagus sylvatica ecotypes for maintaining drought-sensitive Central European beech forests under global warming conditions.

(Table 1) Tree age, post fire stand age, and soil organic matter thickness in the western Quebec black spruce boreal ecosystem

The observed long-term decrease in the regional fire activity of Eastern Canada results in excessive accumulation of organic layer on the forest floor of coniferous forests, which may affect climate-growth relationships in canopy trees. To test this hypothesis, we related tree-ring chronologies of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) to soil organic layer (SOL) depth at the stand scale in the lowland forests of Quebec's Clay Belt. Late-winter and early-spring temperatures and temperature at the end of the previous year's growing season were the major monthly level environmental controls of spruce growth. The effect of SOL on climate-growth relationships was moderate and reversed the association between tree growth and summer aridity from a negative to a positive relationship: trees growing on thin organic layers were thus negatively affected by drought, whereas it was the opposite for sites with deep (>20-30 cm) organic layers. This indicates the development of wetter conditions on sites with thicker SOL. Deep SOL were also associated with an increased frequency of negative growth anomalies (pointer years) in tree-ring chronologies. Our results emphasize the presence of nonlinear growth responses to SOL accumulation, suggesting 20-30 cm as a provisional threshold with respect to the effects of SOL on the climate-growth relationship. Given the current climatic conditions characterized by generally low-fire activity and a trend toward accumulation of SOL, the importance of SOL effects in the black spruce ecosystem is expected to increase in the future.

Vegetation and fire history since the last glacial maximum in an inland area of the western Mediterranean Basin (Northern Iberian Plateau, NW Spain)

We reconstructed vegetation responses to climate oscillations, fire and human activities since the last glacial maximum in inland NW Iberia, where previous paleoecological research is scarce. Extremely sparse and open vegetation composed of steppic grasslands and heathlands with scattered pioneer trees suggests very cold and dry conditions during the Oldest Dryas, unsuitable for tree survival in the surroundings of the study site. Slight woodland expansion during the Bolling/Allerod was interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling. Pinewoods dominated for most of the early Holocene, when a marked increase in fire activity occurred. Deciduous trees expanded later reaching their maximum representation during the mid-Holocene. Enhanced fire activity and the presence of coprophilous fungi around 6400-6000 cal yr BP suggest an early human occupation around the site. However, extensive deforestation only started at 4500 calyrBP, when fire was used to clear the tree canopy. Final replacement of woodlands with heathlands, grasslands and cereal crops occurred from 2700 cal yr BP onwards due to land-use intensification. Our paleoecological record can help efforts aimed at restoring the natural vegetation by indicating which communities were dominant at the onset of heavy human impact, thus promoting the recovery of currently rare oak and alder stands.