Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of fairness theory to service failures and service recovery

This article presents a fairness theory-based conceptual framework for studying and managing consumers’ emotions during service recovery attempts. The conceptual framework highlights the central role played by counterfactual thinking and accountability. Findings from five focus groups are also presented to lend further support to the conceptual framework. Essentially, the article argues that a service failure event triggers an emotional response in the consumer, and from here the consumer commences an assessment of the situation, considering procedural justice, interactional justice, and distributive justice elements, while engaging in counterfactual thinking and apportioning accountability. More specifically, the customer assesses whether the service provider could and should have done something more to remedy the problem and how the customer would have felt had these actions been taken. The authors argue that during this process situational effort is taken into account when assessing accountability. When service providers do not appear to exhibit an appropriate level of effort, consumers attribute this to the service provider not caring. This in turn leads to the customer feeling more negative emotions, such as anger and frustration. Managerial implications of the study are discussed.

Hard real-time multiprocessor scheduling resilient to core failures

Presented at 21st IEEE International Conference on Embedded and Real-Time Computing Systems and Applications (RTCSA 2015). 19 to 21, Aug, 2015, pp 122-131. Hong Kong, China.

Study of antiretroviral mutants in HIV patients with treatment failures and the effect of risk factors in the virological failures

INTRODUCTION: Information about HIV phenotypes of resistant to available ART and the influence of different risk factors on virological failures (VF) in Costa Rican HIV positive patients prior or during HAART is unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty nine samples, 72 VF and 17 basal (before treatment) were analyzed by examining resistant mutants in reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease (PT) regions using Trugene or LIPA genotyping kits. Sixty eight control patients were selected and relevant information was collected in a questionnaire. RESULTS: Poor adherence, presence of resistant mutations and number of treatment's changes were the only significant factors found (p = 0.006, 0.04 and 0.01 respectively). From 66 sequenced samples, 78%, 50% and 50% showed resistance to NRTI (nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors), NNRT (non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors) and PI (protease inhibitors), respectively. The most frequent mutations were M41L, M184V, and T215FY in RT and L62PI, L10FIRV and M36I in PT. DISCUSSION: The most important factor related to treatment response in this study was adherence to treatment. Mutations in RT were related to the treatment failure while the ones found in PT were secondary mutations which have been previously described to influence the selection of primary resistance mutations in these regions. The study reveals the urgency to detect resistant mutations in VF to be considered by physicians for selection of treatment schedule, to analyze basal HIV patients for monitoring of the spread of resistant mutations and the importance to reinforce the adherence in the patients for overall treatment outcome.

Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper we employ notions of learnability and self-enforceability to motivate and identify equilibria of particular interest. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our methods for identifying equilibria of interest. Importantly, unless the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.

Proximale Humerusmehrfragmentfrakturen--Misserfolge nach T-Platten-Osteosynthesen [Proximal humeral multiple fragment fractures--failures after T-plate osteosynthesis].

Dislocated compound fractures of the proximal humerus are often difficult to treat. The choice of treatment influences the final functional result. From 1984-1991 108 patients with dislocated compound fractures of the proximal humerus were operated with a T-plate osteosynthesis, retrospectively examined and classified according to the Neer-Classification. At an average follow up time of 5 years 72 patients had a clinical and radiological examination. 68% of these patients with 3-fragment fractures and 80% with 4-fragment fractures showed a modest to unsatisfactory result caused by fracture biology, imprecise fracture reduction or poor surgical procedure. Incorrect position of T-plates and inadequate material were distinguishable. The T-plate which was widely used in the late eighties for internal fixation has to be considered a failure for these particular types of fractures and should be limited for Collum chirurgicum fractures.

Impact of previous virological treatment failures and adherence on the outcome of antiretroviral therapy in 2007.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (<50 copies/ml) in 84.6% vs. 89.1% of the participants, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios of a detectable viral load at visit 2 for participants from the mono/dual era with a history of 2 and 3, 4, >4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure.

Bargaining failures and merger policy

In this paper we study the optimal ex-ante merger policy in a model where merger proposals are the result of strategic bargaining among alternative candidates. We allow for firm asymmetries and, in particular, we emphasize the fact that potential synergies generated by a merger may vary substantially depending on the identity of the participating firms. The model demonstrates that, under some circumstances, relatively inefficient mergers may take place. That is, a particular merger may materialize despite the existence of an alternative merger capable of generating higher social surplus and even higher profits. Such bargaining failures have important implications for the ex-ante optimal merger policy. We show that a more stringent policy than the ex-post optimal reduces the scope of these bargaining failures and raises expected social surplus. We use a bargaining model that is flexible, in the sense that its strategic structure does not place any exogenous restriction on the endogenous likelihood of feasible mergers.

Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

Merger failures

This paper proposes an explanation as to why some mergers fail, based on the interactionbetween the pre- and post-merger processes. We argue that failure may stem from informationalasymmetries arising from the pre-merger period, and problems of cooperation andcoordination within recently merged firms. We show that a partner may optimally agree tomerge and abstain from putting forth any post-merger effort, counting on the other partnerto make the necessary efforts. If both follow the same course of action, the merger goesahead but fails. Our unique equilibrium allows us to make predictions on which mergers aremore likely to fail.

Objective evaluation of shoulder function using body-fixed sensors: a new way to detect early treatment failures?

Background: Variable definitions of outcome (Constant score, Simple Shoulder Test [SST]) have been used to assess outcome after shoulder treatment, although none has been accepted as the universal standard. Physicians lack an objective method to reliably assess the activity of their patients in dynamic conditions. Our purpose was to clinically validate the shoulder kinematic scores given by a portable movement analysis device, using the activities of daily living described in the SST as a reference. The secondary objective was to determine whether this device could be used to document the effectiveness of shoulder treatments (for glenohumeral osteoarthritis and rotator cuff disease) and detect early failures.Methods: A clinical trial including 34 patients and a control group of 31 subjects over an observation period of 1 year was set up. Evaluations were made at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery by 2 independent observers. Miniature sensors (3-dimensional gyroscopes and accelerometers) allowed kinematic scores to be computed. They were compared with the regular outcome scores: SST; Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand; American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons; and Constant.Results: Good to excellent correlations (0.61-0.80) were found between kinematics and clinical scores. Significant differences were found at each follow-up in comparison with the baseline status for all the kinematic scores (P < .015). The kinematic scores were able to point out abnormal patient outcomes at the first postoperative follow-up.Conclusion: Kinematic scores add information to the regular outcome tools. They offer an effective way to measure the functional performance of patients with shoulder pathology and have the potential to detect early treatment failures.Level of evidence: Level II, Development of Diagnostic Criteria, Diagnostic Study. (C) 2011 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.