The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

Political limits on the world oil trade : firm-level evidence from US firms

International politics affect trade patterns, especially for firms in extractive industries. We construct the firm-level dataset for the U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2010 to test whether the state of international relations with the trading partners of the U.S. affect importing behavior of the U.S. firms. To measure "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners we use voting records for the UN General Assembly. We find that the U.S. firms, in fact, import significantly less oil from the political opponents of the U.S. Our conjecture is that the decrease in oil imports is mainly driven by large, vertically-integrated U.S. firms that engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) overseas.

Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004���2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

Taiwan strait crises and Chiang Kai-shek's strategic thinking : a perspective from the Taiwan's archive

This paper uses Taiwan's archival documents to reexamine the two Taiwan Strait crises and the characteristics of Chiang Kai-shek's strategic thinking. Section 2 examines the oscillation of U.S. policy concerning the ROC's offensive toward mainland China and the defense of the Da-chen islands before and after the initiation of the First Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1954-1955. Doing so will highlight the contradictory U.S. attitude that contributed to the crisis and weakened its ability to control Chiang. Section 3 focuses on Chiang Kai-shek's strategic vision toward East Asia. In particular, this section focuses on his strategic thinking and tries to assess whether or not he was a "reckless" or "irrational" leader as often described in the previous research on his personality.

Political influence in commercial and financial oil trading : the evidence from US firms

International politics affects oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk.

Changing citizen confidence: Orientations towards political and social institutions in Australia, 1983-2010 [Review]

Since the early 1980s, when confidence in institutions was first measured in an Australian academic social survey, Australia - And the world - has faced many political, social and economic changes. From corporate scandals and company collapses, to unprecedented terrorist attacks, to major ongoing international conflicts, to changes in government and all manner of political machinations, to the global financial crisis and its aftermath. One consequence of such developments has been that many major political, social and economic institutions have come under intense pressure. Using survey research data, this paper investigates how public confidence in various Australian institutions and organisations has changed over time. The results are variable and in some instances surprising. Confidence in some institutions has remained high, and in some low, over an extended period of time. In other cases, confidence has varied quite markedly at different time points. As well as looking at trends in the level of public confidence in institutions, the paper examines different dimensions of confidence together with underpinning socio-political factors. It also discusses theoretical and practical implications of the data.

Os conflitos tribut��rios internacionais e sua poss��vel solu����o pela via arbitral

O fen��meno da globaliza����o teve o cond��o de aproximar os diversos povos, cada um com seus interesses e culturas pr��prios. A exist��ncia de um consenso internacional na defini����o de princ��pios a serem seguidos quando das rela����es externas n��o consegue impedir, contudo, o surgimento de poss��veis conflitos e diverg��ncias, tendo em vista a pluralidade cultural das diversas na����es mundiais, fato que induziu a sociedade internacional a desenvolver meios que pudessem dirimir pacificamente as controv��rsias, porventura, surgidas entre elas. A ado����o dos meios para solu����o pac��fica dos conflitos internacionais encontra-se incentivada pela Constitui����o da Rep��blica Federativa do Brasil (art. 4., incisos VI e VII) e sua utiliza����o n��o importa qualquer ren��ncia ao exerc��cio da soberania, nem tampouco �� imunidade de jurisdi����o. Para que se tenha uma efic��cia maior da submiss��o dos conflitos surgidos no ��mbito externo aos meios admitidos para resolv��-los, �� importante que os pa��ses envolvidos no lit��gio possuam orienta����o interna no sentido de privilegiar o Direito Internacional frente �� sua legisla����o infraconstitucional dom��stica. A eventual primazia do direito interno pode resultar na inocuidade da ado����o dos meios pac��ficos de solu����o de controv��rsias internacionais, uma vez que as autoridades dos pa��ses litigantes poder��o se esquivar do cumprimento do acordo ou decis��o alegando uma poss��vel contrariedade com os ditames legais dom��sticos. Nesse contexto, a seara tribut��ria tem despertado constantes diverg��ncias internacionais. As diferentes interpreta����es conferidas pelas diversas na����es, dentre elas o Brasil, quando da aplica����o dos tratados por elas firmados e que tenham vertente fiscal, em especial aqueles que visam evitar a dupla imposi����o fiscal da renda, ou garantir o livre tr��nsito de bens, pessoas e servi��os, acaba trazendo grande inseguran��a ��queles investidores que possuem opera����es conectadas a dois ou mais sistemas tribut��rios diferentes. Assim, ganham cada vez mais corpo, os debates em torno da extens��o dos mecanismos pac��ficos para resolu����o de diverg��ncias, tamb��m ao ��mbito de aplica����o de todo e qualquer tratado que verse sobre a mat��ria tribut��ria. Tal fato propicia a busca de uma poss��vel uniformiza����o dos m��todos hermen��uticos aplic��veis ��queles fatos geradores tribut��veis que se encontrem vinculados a dois ou mais entes soberanos. �� nesse contexto que se apresenta o presente estudo, o qual aborda a possibilidade de a Rep��blica Federativa do Brasil submeter ao procedimento arbitral aquelas controv��rsias de cunho tribut��rio que eventualmente decorram da interpreta����o divergente das conven����es internacionais das quais seja parte e que tratem de mat��ria fiscal.

Muriel Rukeyser, America, and the ���Melville Revival���

Whilst Muriel Rukeyser's poetic affinity with Walt Whitman is generally acknowledged, the close relation of her work and poetic sensibility to the thought and writing of Herman Melville has somehow gone relatively unnoticed, and almost wholly unexamined. In 1918, Van Wyck Brooks called for the creation of a usable past that would energize America by recasting its cultural tradition. His plea addressed the need to rebuild a national heritage via the rediscovery of culturally ���great��� figures. By the late 1930s, many scholars and writers had answered the call, and the new discipline of American studies was beginning to take shape, aided by a reclamation of one of the country's greatest, most neglected, writers ��� Herman Melville. This was also the period in which Rukeyser ���came of age���; a time when political and international conflicts and economic crises generated both the stark, documentary representation of present social realities and the drive to retrieve or reconstruct a more golden age that might mobilize a dislocated nation. The following article examines the importance of Melville to Rukeyser's work, and situates her within the ���Melville revival��� as an important figure in the movement throughout the first half of the twentieth century to reconstruct an American cultural character.

Conflito Russo-Ucraniano: o agendamento noticioso da SIC

Relat��rio de est��gio apresentado �� Escola Superior de Comunica����o Social como parte dos requisitos para obten����o de grau de mestre em Jornalismo.

Acc��s aux m��dicaments : comment expliquer et am��liorer la situation au Br��sil

Le Br��sil figure parmi les plus grands march��s consommateurs de m��dicaments. Cependant, le droit �� l'acc��s aux m��dicaments, pr��vu dans sa Constitution F��d��rale, ne fait pas partie de sa r��alit��. Cette situation est attribuable �� plusieurs facteurs: le Br��sil n'est pas capable de r��pondre �� ses besoins internes et la consommation de m��dicaments n'est pas ��quilibr��e. En r��action �� cette constatation, nous analyserons la situation juridique actuelle du Br��sil, afin d'indiquer les lacunes et barri��res au plein acc��s aux m��dicaments et, surtout, de trouver une solution qui pourrait am��liorer cette situation. Les organismes gouvernementaux br��siliens jouant un r��le important dans le d��veloppement des nouveaux m��dicaments sont pr��sent��s et, ensuite, l'encadrement juridique applicable �� la recherche clinique et �� l'autorisation de mise en march�� des nouveaux m��dicaments est analys��; un bref survol de la l��gislation applicable aux m��dicaments g��n��riques est fait. Dans un deuxi��me moment de l'��tude, la question d'acc��s aux nouveaux m��dicaments est mise en lumi��re: la l��gislation br��silienne relative aux brevets, ainsi que le r��gime de licence obligatoire sont abord��s; de plus, nous ��valuons la compatibilit�� de ce r��gime avec l'Accord sur les ADPIC et nous ��voquons les conflits internationaux qu'il a suscit��s. En vue de trouver des solutions aux difficult��s br��siliennes identifi��es, nous concluons notre ��tude avec l'examen de l'initiative canadienne pour favoriser l'acc��s aux m��dicaments aux pays du Sud (RCAN). Nous constatons que l'utilisation du RCAM pourrait, �� court terme, favoriser l'acc��s aux m��dicaments au Br��sil et, �� moyen terme, aider �� r��duire les conflits internationaux. Finalement, �� long terme, nous croyons que le Br��sil pourrait jouer un r��le de leader international en adoptant une loi semblable �� celle du Canada et, ainsi, il serait capable d'aider d'autres pays dans le besoin, qui n'ont aucune capacit�� de production locale, comme par exemple, plusieurs pays en Afrique.

Les tendances comm��moratives contemporaines �� travers l�����volution des monuments aux morts en Occident

Pour respecter les droits d���auteur, la version ��lectronique de ce m��moire a ��t�� d��pouill��e de ses documents visuels. La version int��grale du m��moire a ��t�� d��pos��e au Service de la gestion des documents et des archives de l'Universit�� de Montr��al

An��lisis de las estrategias emprendidas en materia de pol��tica exterior de India en la d��cada de los noventa y la incidencia que han tenido ��stas en la construcci��n de un escenario de seguridad con China y Pakist��n

India, China y Pakist��n hacen parte de un subsistema estrat��gico de seguridad. Los constantes e hist��ricos roces fronterizos, la falta de di��logo pol��tico entre las unidades y la creciente carrera armamentista, son factores detonantes de la crisis que enfrentan estos Estados, lo que no les ha permitido una verdadera integraci��n a pesar de los considerables esfuerzos diplom��ticos, pol��ticos y econ��micos. India por su parte, ha buscado incrementar su poder en el Sur de Asia como un actor influyente y dinamizador de las relaciones bilaterales con respecto a su zona geogr��fica de influencia principalmente en la d��cada de los noventa, pero ha enfrentado hist��ricos roces en zonas fronterizas que se encuentran sin resolver, adicional a ello la naci��n se ha enfrentado a un fen��meno que mitiga su capacidad de acci��n y ejecuci��n que es el terrorismo y la insurgencia en la regi��n. Todo lo anterior es analizado bajo la Teor��a del Realismo Ofensivo de John J. Mearsheimer

Intera����o social e democracia: sobre a universaliza����o do direito

P��s-gradua����o em Filosofia - FFC