Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generalized Markov branching processes

A generalized Markov Brnching Process (GMBP) is a Markov branching model where the infinitesimal branching rates are modified with an interaction index. It is proved that there always exists only one GMBP. An associated differential-integral equation is derived. The extinction probalility and the mean and conditional mean extinction times are obtained. Ergodicity and stability of GMBP with resurrection are also considered. Easy checking criteria are established for ordinary and strong ergodicty. The equilibrium distribution is given in an elegant closed form. The probability meaning of our results is clear and thus explained.

Messungen von salpetriger Säure und Eispartikeln im Nachlauf von Flugzeugen

Ziel dieser Arbeit war der Aufbau und Einsatz des Atmosphärischen chemischen Ionisations-Massenspektrometers AIMS für boden- und flugzeuggetragene Messungen von salpetriger Säure (HONO). Für das Massenspektrometer wurden eine mit Gleichspannung betriebene Gasentladungsionenquelle und ein spezielles Druckregelventil entwickelt. Während der Instrumentenvergleichskampagne FIONA (Formal Intercomparisons of Observations of Nitrous Acid) an einer Atmosphären-Simulationskammer in Valencia (Spanien) wurde AIMS für HONO kalibriert und erstmals eingesetzt. In verschiedenen Experimenten wurden HONO-Mischungsverhältnisse zwischen 100 pmol/mol und 25 nmol/mol erzeugt und mit AIMS interferenzfrei gemessen. Innerhalb der Messunsicherheit von ±20% stimmen die massenspektrometrischen Messungen gut mit den Methoden der Differenziellen Optischen Absorptions-Spektrometrie und der Long Path Absorption Photometrie überein. Die Massenspektrometrie kann somit zum schnellen und sensitiven Nachweis von HONO in verschmutzter Stadtluft und in Abgasfahnen genutzt werden.rnErste flugzeuggetragene Messungen von HONO mit AIMS wurden 2011 bei der Messkampagne CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) auf dem DLR Forschungsflugzeug Falcon durchgeführt. Hierbei konnte eine Nachweisgrenze von < 10 pmol/mol (3σ, 1s) erreicht werden. Bei Verfolgungsflügen wurden im jungen Abgasstrahl von Passagierflugzeugen molare HONO zu Stickoxid-Verhältnisse (HONO/NO) von 2.0 bis 2.5% gemessen. HONO wird im Triebwerk durch die Reaktion von NO mit OH gebildet. Ein gemessener abnehmender Trend der HONO/NO Verhältnisse mit zunehmendem Stickoxid-Emissionsindex wurde bestätigt und weist auf eine OH Limitierung im jungen Abgasstrahl hin.rnNeben den massenspektrometrischen Messungen wurden Flugzeugmessungen der Partikelsonde Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe FSSP-300 in jungen Kondensstreifen ausgewertet und analysiert. Aus den gemessenen Partikelgrößenverteilungen wurden Extinktions- und optische Tiefe-Verteilungen abgeleitet und für die Untersuchung verschiedener wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen, z.B. bezüglich der Partikelform in jungen Kondensstreifen und ihrer Klimawirkung, zur Verfügung gestellt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde der Einfluss des Flugzeug- und Triebwerktyps auf mikrophysikalische und optische Eigenschaften von Kondensstreifen untersucht. Unter ähnlichen meteorologischen Bedingungen bezüglich Feuchte, Temperatur und stabiler thermischer Schichtung wurden 2 Minuten alte Kondensstreifen der Passagierflugzeuge vom Typ A319-111, A340-311 und A380-841 verglichen. Im Rahmen der Messunsicherheit wurde keine Änderung des Effektivdurchmessers der Partikelgrößenverteilungen gefunden. Hingegen nehmen mit zunehmendem Flugzeuggewicht die Partikelanzahldichte (162 bis 235 cm-3), die Extinktion (2.1 bis 3.2 km-1), die Absinktiefe des Kondensstreifens (120 bis 290 m) und somit die optische Tiefe der Kondensstreifen (0.25 bis 0.94) zu. Der gemessene Trend wurde durch Vergleich mit zwei unabhängigen Kondensstreifen-Modellen bestätigt. Mit den Messungen wurde eine lineare Abhängigkeit der totalen Extinktion (Extinktion mal Querschnittsfläche des Kondensstreifens) vom Treibstoffverbrauch pro Flugstrecke gefunden und bestätigt.

Approximating persistence in a general class of population processes

We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systématique moléculaire et biogéographie de trois genres malgaches menacés d'extinction Delonix, Colvillea et Lemuropisum (Caesalpinioideae: Leguminosae)

Ce mémoire porte sur les relations phylogénétiques, géographiques et historiques du genre afro-malgache Delonix qui contient onze espèces et des genres monospécifiques et endémiques Colvillea et Lemuropisum. Les relations intergénériques et interspécifiques entre les espèces de ces trois genres ne sont pas résolues ce qui limite la vérification d’hypothèses taxonomiques, mais également biogéographiques concernant la dispersion de plantes depuis ou vers Madagascar. Une meilleure compréhension des relations évolutives et biogéographiques entre ces espèces menacées d’extinction permettrait une plus grande efficacité quant à leur conservation. L’objectif de ce mémoire est de reconstruire la phylogénie des espèces à l’aide de régions moléculaires des génomes chloroplastique et nucléaire, d’identifier les temps de divergences entre les espèces et de reconstruire l’aire géographique ancestrale pour chacun des groupes. Ce projet démontre que le genre Delonix n’est pas soutenu comme étant monophylétique et qu’une révision taxonomique s’impose. Les relations intergénériques demeurent floues quant à la position phylogénétique de Colvillea et nos résultats suggèrent de l’hybridation ou un assortiment incomplet de cette lignée. Les espèces sont apparues et se sont diversifiées au Miocène à partir d’un ancêtre commun du sud de Madagascar. La phylogénie montre deux clades associés aux aires géographiques de répartition des espèces opposant les espèces largement répandues à celles majoritairement restreintes au fourré aride. Différentes hypothèses afin d’expliquer la dispersion des Delonix africains au Miocène à partir de Madagascar sont discutées. Un point de mire sur les interactions biotiques et abiotiques, passées et présentes, dans le fourré aride de Madagascar est recommandé en terme de conservation.

A variational method to retrieve the extinction profile in liquid clouds using multiple field-of-view lidar

Liquid clouds play a profound role in the global radiation budget but it is difficult to remotely retrieve their vertical profile. Ordinary narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidars receive a strong return from such clouds but the information is limited to the first few optical depths. Wideangle multiple-FOV lidars can isolate radiation scattered multiple times before returning to the instrument, often penetrating much deeper into the cloud than the singly-scattered signal. These returns potentially contain information on the vertical profile of extinction coefficient, but are challenging to interpret due to the lack of a fast radiative transfer model for simulating them. This paper describes a variational algorithm that incorporates a fast forward model based on the time-dependent two-stream approximation, and its adjoint. Application of the algorithm to simulated data from a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar with a maximum footprint width of 600m suggests that this approach should be able to retrieve the extinction structure down to an optical depth of around 6, and total opticaldepth up to at least 35, depending on the maximum lidar FOV. The convergence behavior of Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton optimization schemes are compared. We then present results from an application of the algorithm to observations of stratocumulus by the 8-FOV airborne “THOR” lidar. It is demonstrated how the averaging kernel can be used to diagnose the effective vertical resolution of the retrieved profile, and therefore the depth to which information on the vertical structure can be recovered. This work enables exploitation of returns from spaceborne lidar and radar subject to multiple scattering more rigorously than previously possible.

Intolerance of uncertainty predicts fear extinction in amygdala-ventromedial prefrontal cortical circuitry

Background: Coordination of activity between the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) is important for fear-extinction learning. Aberrant recruitment of this circuitry is associated with anxiety disorders. Here, we sought to determine if individual differences in future threat uncertainty sensitivity, a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underly compromised recruitment of fear extinction circuitry. Twenty-two healthy subjects completed a cued fear conditioning task with acquisition and extinction phases. During the task, pupil dilation, skin conductance response, and functional magnetic resonance imaging were acquired. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction learning by splitting the extinction phase into early and late extinction. Threat uncertainty sensitivity was measured using self-reported intolerance of uncertainty (IU). Results: During early extinction learning, we found low IU scores to be associated with larger skin conductance responses and right amygdala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU scores were associated with no skin conductance discrimination and greater activity within the right amygdala to previously learned safety cues. In late extinction learning, low IU scores were associated with successful inhibition of previously learned threat, reflected in comparable skin conductance response and right amgydala activity to learned threat vs. safety cues, whilst high IU scores were associated with continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance and amygdala activity to threat vs. safety cues. In addition, high IU scores were associated with greater vmPFC activity to threat vs. safety cues in late extinction. Similar patterns of IU and extinction learning were found for pupil dilation. The results were specific for IU and did not generalize to self-reported trait anxiety. Conclusions: Overall, the neural and psychophysiological patterns observed here suggest high IU individuals to disproportionately generalize threat during times of uncertainty, which subsequently compromises fear extinction learning. More broadly, these findings highlight the potential of intolerance of uncertainty-based mechanisms to help understand pathological fear in anxiety disorders and inform potential treatment targets.

Does reduced mobility through fragmented landscapes explain patch extinction patterns for three honeyeaters?

1.Habitat loss and associated fragmentation are major drivers of biodiversity decline, and understanding how they affect population processes (e.g. dispersal) is an important conservation goal. In a large-scale test employing 10 &times; 10 km units of replication, three species of Australian birds, the fuscous honeyeater, yellow-tufted honeyeater and white-plumed honeyeater, responded differently to fragmentation. The fuscous and yellow-tufted honeyeaters are ‘decliners’ that disappeared from suitable habitat in landscapes where levels of tree-cover fell below critical thresholds of 17 and 8%, respectively. The white-plumed honeyeater is a ‘tolerant’ species whose likelihood of occurrence in suitable habitat was independent of landscape-level tree-cover. 2.To determine whether the absence of the two decliner species in low tree-cover landscapes can be explained by reduced genetic connectivity, we looked for signatures of reduced mobility and gene flow in response to fragmentation across agricultural landscapes in the Box-Ironbark region of north-central Victoria, Australia. 3.We compared patterns of genetic diversity and population structure at the regional scale and across twelve 100 km2 landscapes with different tree-cover extents. We used genetic data to test landscape models predicting reduced dispersal through the agricultural matrix. We tested for evidence of sex-biased dispersal and sex-specific responses to fragmentation. 4.Reduced connectivity may have contributed to the disappearance of the yellow-tufted honey-eater from low tree-cover landscapes, as evidenced by male bias and increased relatedness among males in low tree-cover landscapes and signals of reduced gene flow and mobility through the agricultural matrix. We found no evidence for negative effects of fragmentation on gene flow in the other decliner, the fuscous honeyeater, suggesting that undetected pressures act on this species. As expected, there was no evidence for decreased movement through fragmented landscapes for the tolerant white-plumed honeyeater. 5.We demonstrated effects of habitat loss and fragmentation (stronger patterns of genetic differentiation, increased relatedness among males) on the yellow-tufted honeyeater above the threshold at which probability of occurrence dropped. Increasing extent and structural connectivity of habitat should be an appropriate management action for this species and other relatively sedentary woodland specialist species for which it can be taken as representative.

Good times and philanthropy : giving by Australia's affluent

This report draws upon the latest research to examine giving trends by affluent individuals in Australia and how these compare with overseas counterparts. It is driven by several factors. Giving by individuals matters enormously to the nonprofit sector, far exceeding business donations. Whether the richest of the population gives commensurate with their wealth is a question worth asking.