Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Enhancing the selection of a model-based clustering with external categorical variables

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which are not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering context to select a number of clusters which both fits the data well and takes advantage of the potential illustrative ability of the external variables. This approach makes use of the integrated joint likelihood of the data and the partitions at hand, namely the model-based partition and the partitions associated to the external variables. It is noteworthy that each mixture model is fitted by the maximum likelihood methodology to the data, excluding the external variables which are used to select a relevant mixture model only. Numerical experiments illustrate the promising behaviour of the derived criterion.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

Avaliação e promoção da leitura na formação de adultos com incapacidade intelectual

A promoção de competências de leitura é um tema central, tanto na educação regular, como na educação especial em crianças em idade pré-escolar e escolar. Todavia, as competências de leitura de indivíduos adultos com incapacidade intelectual são um domínio muito pouco estudado. São também escassos os estudos direcionados à avaliação dessas competências. Esta investigação propõe uma tradução/ adaptação do APAR (Assessment of Phonological Awareness and Reading), um protocolo de avaliação da consciência fonológica (CF) e da leitura especificamente concebido para a população em estudo. Procura-se também analisar os processos cognitivos envolvidos na leitura nos quais a intervenção produzirá resultados mais significativos e confirmar uma relação positiva entre a avaliação prévia de competências escolares em contexto formativo profissional e o efetivo desenvolvimento de competências de leitura. Foram avaliadas em dois momentos (pré e pós-teste) a CF e competências de leitura de 12 adultos com incapacidade intelectual ligeira, sendo estes sujeitos a um programa de intervenção, visando áreas menos desenvolvidas das suas competências que possibilitassem desempenhos de leitura mais fortes. Ao nível da análise quantitativa, foram comparados os resultados obtidos nos dois momentos de administração. No tratamento estatístico recorreu-se a análises de correlação de Spearman para determinar a presença de indicadores de desempenho ao nível da CF e ao cálculo de coeficientes de correlação de Pearson e Spearman para controlar variáveis externas como idade, sexo e habilitações literárias. Os resultados obtidos revelam desempenhos fracos ao nível da leitura/ compreensão textual e, em particular, da CF em pré-teste e ganhos significativos globais após implementação de uma intervenção baseada em medidas de avaliação prévia de competências de leitura/compreensão e CF

Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Thin Bonded Overlay Evaluation, Construction Report, HR-559, 1999

In recent years, ultra-thin whitetopping (UTW) has evolved as a viable rehabilitation technique for deteriorated asphalt cement concrete (ACC) pavement. Numerous UTW projects have been constructed and tested, enabling researchers to identify key elements contributing to their successful performance. These elements include foundation support, the interface bonding condition, portland cement concrete (PCC) overlay thickness, synthetic fiber reinforcement usage, joint spacing, and joint sealing. The interface bonding condition is the most important of these elements. It enables the pavement to act as a composite structure, thus reducing tensile stresses and allowing an ultra-thin PCC overlay to perform as intended. Although the main factors affecting UTW performance have been identified in previous research, neither the impact that external variables have on the elements nor the element interaction have been thoroughly investigated. The objective of this research was to investigate the interface bonding condition between an ultra-thin PCC overlay and an ACC base over time, considering the previously mentioned variables. Laboratory testing and full scale field testing were planned to accomplish the research objective. Laboratory testing involved monitoring interface strains in fabricated PCC/ACC composite test beams subjected to either static or dynamic flexural loading. Variables investigated included ACC surface preparation, PCC thickness, and synthetic fiber reinforcement usage. Field testing involved monitoring PCC/ACC interface stains and temperatures, falling weight deflectometer (FWD) deflection responses, direct shear strengths, and distresses on a 7.2 mile Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) UTW project (HR-559). The project was located on Iowa Highway 21 between Iowa Highway 212 and U.S. Highway 6 in Iowa County, near Belle Plaine, Iowa. Variables investigated included ACC surface preparation, PCC thickness, synthetic fiber reinforcement usage, joint spacing, and joint sealing. This report documents the planning, equipment selection, and construction of the project built in 1994.

Estudi de la contaminació per nitrats a les aigües subterrànies de Catalunya: l'Alt Penedès, el Baix Camp, el Baix Empordà, el Baix Penedès, la Garrotxa, el Maresme, Osona, el Pla de l'Estany, la Segarra, el Segrià, el Tarragonès i l'Urgell

La contaminació per nitrats de les aigües subterrànies és un dels problemes mediambientals i de salut pública que més afecten els nostres aqüífers. És per això que un dels eixos del nostre estudi és fer la màxima difusió de l’estat de la qualitat de l’aigua dels aqüífers de diferents àrees de Catalunya. En el present estudi es tracta la contaminació per nitrats a les aigües de 945 punts de mostreig (sobretot d’aigua procedent de pous, d’algunes mines i d’algunes fonts) de Catalunya, situats en 12 comarques diferents, totes elles amb algun o una gran part dels seus municipis englobats en una zona vulnerable. D’aquests punts de mostreig s’ha fet un recull de dades de la concentració de nitrats des de l’any 2003 fins el 2012 per tal d’estudiar-ne l’evolució i la incidència de la pluviometria, així com conèixer en quines comarques les variables externes: superfície agrària útil (SAU), explotacions agràries i cabana porcina i bovina poden haver incidit directament en la contaminació. També s’estudia fins a quin punt, aquest deteriorament, ha afectat la mineralització de l’aigua o afecta a llocs d’aigües més mineralitzades. A partir dels resultats obtinguts s’ha arribat a les conclusions que la concentració mitjana de nitrats a les aigües subterrànies en la majoria de comarques estudiades és elevada, superior als 50 mg/l que estableix la normativa vigent; que ha tendit a l’estabilitat en els últims deu anys; que afecta llocs d’aigües molt mineralitzades i que la pluviometria incideix notablement en la concentració de nitrats. S’ha observat que les variables externes superfície agrària útil (SAU), explotacions agràries i cabana porcina i bovina incideixen directament en la contaminació, excepte al Maresme. Finalment es presenten diferents usos alternatius als de l’aigua de consum per aquestes aigües contaminades amb nitrats i que han posat en pràctica diferents municipis de les comarques estudiades.

The transtheoretical model in weight management: Validation of the Processes of Change Questionnaire

Objective: The processes of change implied in weight management remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify these processes by validating a questionnaire designed to assess processes of change (the P-Weight) in line with the transtheoretical model. The relationship of processes of change with stages of change and other external variables is also examined. Methods: Participants were 723 people from community and clinical settings in Barcelona. Their mean age was 32.07 (SD = 14.55) years; most of them were women (75.0%), and their mean BMI was 26.47 (SD = 8.52) kg/m2. They all completed the P-Weight and the stages of change questionnaire (SWeight), both applied to weight management, as well as two subscales from the Eating Disorders Inventory-2 and Eating Attitudes Test-40 questionnaires about the concern with dieting. Results: A 34-item version of the PWeight was obtained by means of a refinement process. The principal components analysis applied to half of the sample identified four processes of change. A confirmatory factor analysis was then carried out with the other half of the sample, revealing that the model of four freely correlated first-order factors showed the best fit (GFI = 0.988, AGFI = 0.986, NFI = 0.986, and SRMR = 0.0559). Corrected item-total correlations (0.322-0.865) and Cronbach"s alpha coefficients (0.781-0.960) were adequate. The relationship between the P-Weight and the S-Weight and the concern with dieting measures from other questionnaires supported the validity of the scale. Conclusion: The study identified processes of change involved in weight management and reports the adequate psychometric properties of the P-Weight. It also reveals the relationship between processes and stages of change and other external variables.

Emergent geomorphic-vegetation interactions on a subalpine alluvial fan

Following perturbation, an ecosystem (flora, fauna, soil) should evolve as a function of time at a rate conditioned by external variables (relief, climate, geology). More recently, biogeomorphologists have focused upon the notion of co-development of geomorphic processes with ecosystems over very short through to very long (evolutionary) timescales. Alpine environments have been a particular focus of this co-development. However, work in this field has tended to adopt a simplified view of the relationship between perturbation and succession, including: how the landform and ecosystem itself conditions the impact of a perturbation to create a complex spatial response impact; and how perturbations are not simply ecosystem destroyers but can be a significant source of ecosystem resources. What this means is that at the within landform scale, there may well be a complex and dynamic topographic and sedimentological template that co-develops with soil, flora and fauna. Here, we present and test a conceptual model of this template for a subalpine alluvial fan. We combine detailed floristic inventory with soil inventory, determination of edaphic variables and analysis of historical aerial imagery. Spatial variation in the probability of perturbation of sites on the fan surface was associated with down fan variability in the across-fan distribution of fan ages, fan surface channel characteristics and fan surface sedimentology. Floristic survey confirmed that these edaphic factors distinguished site floristic richness and plant communities up until the point that the soil-vegetation system was sufficiently developed to sustain plant communities regardless of edaphic conditions. Thus, the primary explanatory variable was the estimated age of each site, which could be tied back into perturbation history and its spatial expression due to the geometry of the fan: distinct plant communities were emergent both across fan and down fan, a distribution maintained by the way in which the fan dissipates potentially perturbing events.

Acceptance and Use of Information Technology among Nurses in Psychiatric Hospitals

Hoitajien informaatioteknologian hyväksyntä ja käyttö psykiatrisissa sairaaloissa Informaatioteknologian (IT) käyttö ei ole ollut kovin merkittävässä roolissa psykiatrisessa hoitotyössä, vaikka IT sovellusten on todettu vaikuttaneen radikaalisti terveydenhuollon palveluihin ja hoitohenkilökunnan työprosesseihin viime vuosina. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on kuvata psykiatrisessa hoitotyössä toimivan hoitohenkilökunnan informaatioteknologian hyväksyntää ja käyttöä ja luoda suositus, jonka avulla on mahdollista tukea näitä asioita psykiatrisissa sairaaloissa. Tutkimus koostuu viidestä osatutkimuksesta, joissa on hyödynnetty sekä tilastollisia että laadullisia tutkimusmetodeja. Tutkimusaineistot on kerätty yhdeksän akuuttipsykiatrian osaston hoitohenkilökunnan keskuudessa vuosien 2003-2006 aikana. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) –teoriaa on hyödynnetty jäsentämään tutkimusprosessia sekä syventämään ymmärrystä saaduista tutkimustuloksista. Tutkimus osoitti kahdeksan keskeistä tekijää, jotka saattavat tukea psykiatrisessa sairaalassa toimivien hoitajien tietoteknologiasovellusten hyväksyntää ja hyödyntämistä, kun nämä tekijät otetaan huomioon uusia sovelluksia käyttöönotettaessa. Tekijät jakautuivat kahteen ryhmään; ulkoiset tekijät (resurssien suuntaaminen, yhteistyö, tietokonetaidot, IT koulutus, sovelluksen käyttöön liittyvä harjoittelu, potilas-hoitaja suhde), sekä käytön helppous ja sovelluksen käytettävyys (käytön ohjeistus, käytettävyyden varmistaminen). TAM teoria todettiin käyttökelpoiseksi tulosten tulkinnassa. Kehitetty suositus sisältää ne toimenpiteet, joiden avulla on mahdollista tukea sekä organisaation johdon että hoitohenkilökunnan sitoutumista ja tätä kautta varmistaa uuden sovelluksen hyväksyntä ja käyttö hoitotyössä. Suositusta on mahdollista hyödyntää käytännössä kun uusia tietojärjestelmiä implementoidaan käyttöön psykiatrisissa sairaaloissa.

Factors associated with active aging in Finland, Poland, and Spain

BACKGROUND: Continuous population aging has raised international policy interest in promoting active aging (AA). AA theoretical models have been defined from a biomedical or a psychosocial perspective. These models may be expanded including components suggested by lay individuals. This paper aims to study the correlates of AA in three European countries, namely, Spain, Poland, and Finland using four different definitions of AA. METHODS: The EU COURAGE in Europe project was a cross-sectional general adult population survey conducted in a representative sample of the noninstitutionalized population of Finland, Poland, and Spain. Participants (10,800) lived in the community. This analysis focuses on individuals aged 50 years old and over (7,987). Four definitions (two biomedical, one psychosocial, and a complete definition including biomedical, psychosocial, and external variables) of AA were analyzed. RESULTS: Differences in AA were found for country, age, education, and occupation. Finland scored consistently the highest in AA followed by Spain and Poland. Younger age was associated with higher AA. Higher education and occupation was associated with AA. Being married or cohabiting was associated with better AA compared to being widowed or separated in most definitions. Gender and urbanicity were not associated with AA, with few exceptions. Men scored higher in AA only in Spain, whereas there was no gender association in the other two countries. Being widowed was only associated with lower AA in Poland and not being married was associated with lower AA in Poland and Finland but not Spain. CONCLUSIONS: Associations with education, marital status, and occupation suggest that these factors are the most important components of AA. These association patterns, however, seem to vary across the three countries. Actions to promote AA in these countries may be addressed at reducing inequalities in occupation and education or directly tackling the components of AA lacking in each country.

Relations entre le programme de promotion des habiletés d’adaptation pour les enfants de 6-7 ans "Les amis de Zippy" et le climat de classe

Le programme d’enseignement des habiletés d’adaptation Les amis de Zippy vise la promotion de la santé mentale des élèves du premier cycle du primaire. La présente étude est une analyse secondaire réalisée à partir des données d’évaluation des effets du programme. L’objectif général vérifie si l’appartenance au groupe d’intervention est associée à une meilleure qualité du climat relationnel de classe à la fin de l’année scolaire, tel que perçu par les enseignants, tout en contrôlant pour la qualité du climat avant la réalisation du programme. La qualité du climat correspond aux relations entre les élèves et aux relations entre les élèves et l’enseignant. L’effet modérateur de la gestion de comportements et les pratiques pédagogiques est aussi analysé. L’échantillon est constitué de 35 enseignants auto-sélectionnés, répartis entre deux groupes non aléatoires. Les échelles suivantes du QES pour le primaire, version enseignant, sont utilisées : relations entre les élèves, relations entre les élèves et les enseignants, gestion des comportements et pratiques pédagogiques. Les résultats, obtenus grâce à des régressions linéaires multiples, montrent que généralement, l’appartenance au groupe n’explique pas significativement la qualité du climat de classe. Cependant, un effet d’interaction entre le climat de classe et la gestion de comportements est identifié. Lorsque les enseignants gèrent plus difficilement leur classe, le programme Les amis de Zippy est associé à un climat relationnel entre les élèves et l’enseignant moins favorable que dans le groupe témoin. Puisque ces résultats préliminaires peuvent être attribuables à des variables externes non contrôlées, ils devront être approfondis par des études subséquentes.

L’évaluation de la compétence professionnelle des futurs maitres du Québec à intégrer les technologies de l'information et des communications (TIC) : maitrise et usages

Au Québec, la compétence professionnelle à intégrer les technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) est une compétence professionnelle à acquérir par les étudiants en enseignement. Cependant, son acquisition est problématique à plusieurs niveaux. Afin d’évaluer et mieux comprendre la compétence, cette thèse présente trois objectifs : 1) décrire le degré de maitrise des TIC et leurs usages dans les salles de classe 2) identifier les facteurs qui influencent l’intégration des TIC en fonction de la compétence professionnelle, et finalement 3) décrire le niveau d’atteinte des composantes de la compétence. Pour atteindre les objectifs de l’étude, une méthodologie mixte fut employée. Ce sont 2065 futurs enseignants du Québec provenant de neuf universités québécoises qui ont complété le questionnaire en plus de 34 participants à des groupes de discussion (n = 5). Cette thèse rédigée sous forme d’articles, répondra à chacun des objectifs visés. Dans le but de mieux comprendre l’utilisation actuelle des TIC par les futurs maitres, le premier article fournira un aperçu de la maitrise d’outils technologiques susceptibles d’être utilisés lors des stages. Le deuxième article visera à identifier les variables externes ainsi que les différentes composantes de la compétence qui ont une influence sur l’intégration des TIC lors des stages. Dans le troisième article, afin de comprendre où se situent les forces et les faiblesses des futurs maitres quant à la compétence professionnelle à intégrer les TIC, une description du niveau d’atteinte de chacune des composantes sera réalisée afin d’en dégager une appréciation globale. Les principaux résultats montrent que pour la moitié des répondants, seuls cinq outils sur 12 sont intégrés en stage et ce sont principalement les outils peu complexes qui sont bien maitrisés. Le logiciel de présentation Power Point, est le plus fréquemment utilisé. Les données considérées dans le premier article suggèrent aussi l’importance d’augmenter, de façon générale, la maitrise technique des futurs enseignants. Les résultats du second article ont permis de constater que la « prévision d’activités faisant appel aux TIC » est une variable prédictive majeure pour l’intégration des TIC. L’analyse des résultats suggèrent le besoin d’enseigner aux futurs maitres comment développer le réflexe d’inclure les TIC dans leurs plans de leçons. De plus, l’appropriation de la sixième composante de la compétence joue un rôle important sur la probabilité d’intégrer les TIC. Les résultats du troisième article indiquent que les composantes 2, 4, 5 et 6 de la compétence sont partiellement maitrisées. La mieux maitrisée est la première composante. Finalement, la troisième composante de la compétence s’est avérée être encore non atteinte et reste à être développer par les futurs enseignants. Cette thèse nous apprend que des efforts considérables restent encore à accomplir quant à la maitrise de la compétence professionnelle à intégrer les TIC. Ces efforts doivent être accomplis à la fois par les futurs enseignants ainsi que par les universités au niveau de la structure des cours de TIC en formation initiale des maitres.

Estudio prospectivo del proceso de reinserción en Colombia

For more than 60 years, Colombia has been suffering an internal conflict, full of a constant violence known today as terrorism. The actual government from President Alvaro Uribe Velez has been developing during his administration, strategies looking for better conditions for those who decide to give away the weapons over the process known as “Reinsercion” or “Reincorporacion” for all the terrorist groups in Colombia. During the investigation, specifically at the work field with the actors from the Reinsercion, through conversations during all the meetings done, where identified the internal and external variables from the surroundings that affected somehow the Reinsercion Process. 85% of the system variables are in the Zone of Conflict, where a big amount of them have some kind of influence over the others, but not all of them are in the zone of the strategic vari ables. This way, there are many front works, important decisions to be taken, awareness on the population to generate, so that all the steps that are to be done toward a solution, reach fruitful results. On the other hand, when analyzing the relation betwe en the actors, the terrorist groups have shown a strong level of convergence from the first moment on the investigation, it could be identify that through the strategic route, this actor confronts the objectives from the other actors of the system. Next, i t will be presented the 4 possible scenarios to happen in the process of Reinsercion in Colombia, and the one with more probability is describe. - Scenario 1: A new Horizon - Scenario 2: Unavoidable Renegotiations - Scenario 3: Everything keeps the same way As the group of experts expressed, this is the scenario with the mayor probability to happen, therefore, as people that have already given up the weapons, perceive the process as a strategy with a lots of difficulties because just a few of the promises that gave the government are really being accomplished. There hasn‟t been a real change in the political structure, and there may be 3 or 4 more governments more and the influence of the narcotrafic could maintain.

Historias y Realidades: ¿Qué hacen los directivos?

El propósito central del estudio consiste en descifrar, entender, contextualizar y reinventar el trabajo directivo actual. En el inicio del texto se busca comprender las realidades sobre el trabajo directivo desde la perspectiva y estudios de dos autores principales, Henry Mintzberg y Stefan Tengblad, los cuales exponen desde otro ángulo el día a día de los directivos; posteriormente se presenta la influencia que tiene el contexto nacional en los diferentes comportamientos y modelos de dirección, haciendo una comparación entre los directivos Suecos y Estado Unidenses para concluir las variables culturales, económicas, políticas y sociales que modifican y personalizan el trabajo directivo; finalmente en la última sección, después de comprender el trabajo directivo desde su naturaleza y sus fuentes externas de influencia, se propone reinventarlo o desde diferentes postulados y modelos, entendiendo que no existe una solución o fórmula mágica, sino unas herramientas que cada directivo debe definir y construir a lo largo de su vida.