Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.

Update analysis on the international crisis and its impact on the Mexican economy

The aim of this study is to analyze the current state of the Mexican economy in the face of the international crisis. Two questions are asked: Is the international crisis over? Is the Mexican economy strong and resilient enough to face the crisis in the eurozone? The first of these questions is answered in the first part. The answer to the second question is discussed in the second part of this study. Also examined are the large number of short, medium and long term problems that the Mexican economy will have to face in 2012 and perhaps 2013.

Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro

O presente trabalho analisa o comportamento da volatilidade do crescimento do produto brasileiro entre 1980 e 2008, cuja trajetória apresenta um declínio de 70% desde 1991. Através da análise do comportamento do PIB, de seus componentes e de seus determinantes, objetiva-se apontar as razões pela qual a volatilidade do crescimento caiu de forma significativa no período considerado. A baixa volatilidade do crescimento do produto traz conseqüências positivas para o bem-estar da sociedade, para a distribuição de renda e para o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. Diferentes estudos foram realizados para apontar as causas do declínio desta volatilidade em diversos países nas últimas três décadas, fenômeno que nos Estados Unidos passou a ser conhecido como The Great Moderation. Dados os benefícios deste processo, entender as suas razões é imprescindível para a formulação de políticas econômicas que garantam a sustentabilidade da moderação dos ciclos econômicos. Este trabalho concentra-se nos fatores nominais (choques de demanda) para explicar o processo de redução da volatilidade do crescimento brasileiro. De um lado, a ausência de restrições externas ao crescimento econômico e o ciclo de prosperidade mundial dos últimos cinco anos garantiram a contribuição da parcela externa. Por outro lado, a condução de políticas macroeconômicas mais sólidas, refletindo em uma maior estabilidade de variáveis como o nível de preços, respondem pelos fatores internos.

Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Consistency restrictions on maximal electric-field strength in quantum field theory

Quantum field theory with an external background can be considered as a consistent model only if backreaction is relatively small with respect to the background. To find the corresponding consistency restrictions on an external electric field and its duration in QED and QCD, we analyze the mean-energy density of quantized fields for an arbitrary constant electric field E, acting during a large but finite time T. Using the corresponding asymptotics with respect to the dimensionless parameter eET(2), one can see that the leading contributions to the energy are due to the creation of particles by the electric field. Assuming that these contributions are small in comparison with the energy density of the electric background, we establish the above-mentioned restrictions, which determine, in fact, the time scales from above of depletion of an electric field due to the backreaction.

Curbing agricultural exceptionalism: The EU's response to external challenge

From 1948 to 1994, the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the GATT. We analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for EU policy making. We argue that, in particular, two major changes in GATT institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism. First, the Uruguay Round was a 'single undertaking' in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture. The EU had keenly supported this new decision rule in the GATT. Within the EU this led to the MacSharry reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992, paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the GATT. Second, under the new quasi-judicial dispute settlement procedure, countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with WTO rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions. This has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the EU to submit its farm policy to WTO disciplines.

IS QFT WITH EXTERNAL BACKGROUNDS A CONSISTENT MODEL?

We discuss consistency of the concept of external background in QFT. Different restrictions on magnitude of magnetic and electric fields are analyzed. The back reaction due to strong electric field is calculated and restrictions on the magnitude and duration of such a field are obtained. The problem of consistency of Dirac equation with a superstrong Coulomb field is discussed.

Decision-Making Processes in Voluntary Football Clubs in Relation to External Counselling

Introduction Recruiting and retaining volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment is a major problem for Swiss sports clubs. With the inclusion of external counselling for the change and systematisation of volunteer management, sports clubs have a possibility to develop and defuse problems in spite of existing barriers and gaps in knowledge. To what extent is external counselling for personnel problems effective? It is often observed that standardised counselling inputs lead to varying consequences for sports clubs. It can be assumed that external impulses are interpreted and transformed differently into the workings of the club. However, this cannot be solely attributed to the situational or structural conditions of the clubs. It is also important to consider the underlying decision-making processes of a club. According to Luhmann’s organisational sociological considerations (2000), organisations (sports clubs) have to be viewed as social systems consisting of (communicated) decisions. This means that organisations are continually reproduced by decision-making processes. All other (observable) factors such as an organisation’s goals, recruiting strategies, support schemes for volunteers etc., have to be seen as an outcome of the operation of prior organisational decisions. Therefore: How do decision-making processes in sports clubs work in the context of the implementation of external counselling? Theoretical Framework An examination of the actual situation in sports clubs shows that decisions frequently appear to be shaped by inconsistency, unexpected outcomes, and randomness (Amis & Slack, 2003). Therefore, it must be emphasised that these decisions cannot be analysed according to any rational decision-making model. Their specific structural characteristics only permit a limited degree of rationality – bounded rationality. Non-profit organisations in particular are shaped by a specific mode of decisionmaking that Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) have called the “garbage can model”. As sport clubs can also be conceived as “organised anarchies”, this model seems to offer an appropriate approach to understanding their practices and analysing their decision-making processes. The key concept in the garbage can model is the assumption that decision-making processes in organisations consist of four “streams”: (a) problems, (b) actors, (c) decision-making opportunities, and (d) solutions. Method Before presenting the method of the analysis of the decision-making processes in sports clubs, the external counselling will be described. The basis of the counselling is generated by a sports clubs’ capability to change. Due to the specific structural characteristics and organisational principles, change processes in sports clubs often merge with barriers and restrictions. These need to be considered when developing counselling guidelines for a successful planning and realisation of change processes. Furthermore, important aspects of personnel management in sports clubs and especially volunteer management must be implied in order to elaborate key elements for the counselling to recruit new volunteers (e.g., approach, expectations). A counselling of four system-counselling workshops was conceptualised by considering these specific characteristics. The decision-making processes in the sports clubs were analysed during the counselling and the implementation process. A case study is designed with the appropriate methodological approach for such explorative research. The approach adopted for these single case analyses was oriented toward the research program of behavioural decision-making theory (garbage can model). This posits that in-depth insights into organisational decision-making processes can only be gained through relevant case studies of existing organisational situations (Skille, 2013). Before, during and after the intervention, questionnaires and guided interviews were conducted with the project teams of the twelve par-ticipating football clubs to assess the different components of the “streams” in the context of external counselling. These interviews have been analysed using content analysis following guidelines as for-mulated by Mayring (2010). Results The findings show that decision-making processes in football clubs occur differently in the context of external counselling. Different initial positions and problems are the triggers for these decision-making processes. Furthermore, the implementation of the solutions and the external counselling is highly dependent on the commitment of certain people as central players within the decision-mak-ing process. The importance of these relationships is confirmed by previous findings in regard to decision-making and change processes in sports clubs. The decision-making processes in sports clubs can be theoretically analysed using behavioural decision-making theory and the “garbage can model”. Bounded rationality characterises all “streams” of the decision-making processes. Moreo-ver, the decision-making process of the football clubs can be well illustrated in the framework, and the interplay of the different dimensions illustrates the different decision-making practices within the football clubs. References Amis, J., & Slack, T. (2003). Analysing sports organisations: Theory and practice. In B. Houlihan (Eds.), Sport & Society (pp. 201–217). London, England: Sage. Cohen, M.D., March, J.G., & Olsen, J.P. (1972). A garbage can model of organisational choice. Ad-ministrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25. Luhmann, N. (2000). Organisation und Entscheidung. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Skille, E. Å. (2013). Case study research in sport management: A reflection upon the theory of science and an empirical example. In S. Söderman & H. Dolles (Eds.), Handbook of research on sport and business (pp. 161–175). Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.

Pure Business, Law Enforcement or Sheer Politics? The EU’s WTO Complaints against Chinese Export Restrictions on Raw Materials. EU Diplomacy Paper 06/2013

In light of the growing international competition among states and globally operating companies for limited natural resources, export restrictions on raw materials have become a popular means for governments to strive for various goals, including industrial development, natural resource conservation and environmental protection. For instance, China as a major supplier of many raw materials has been using its powerful position to both economic and political ends. The European Union (EU), alongside economic heavyweights such as the US, Japan and Mexico, launched two high-profile cases against such export restrictions by China at the WTO in 2009 and 2012. Against this background, this paper analyses the EU’s motivations in the initiation of trade disputes on export restrictions at WTO, particularly focusing on the two cases with China. It argues that the EU's WTO complaints against export restrictions on raw materials are to a large extent motivated by its economic and systemic interests rather than political interests. The EU is more likely to launch a WTO complaint, the stronger the potential and actual impact on its economy, the more ambiguous the WTO rules and the stronger the internal or external lobbying by member states or companies. This argumentation is based on the analysis of pertinent factors such as the economic impact, the ambiguity of WTO law on export restrictions and the pressure by individual member states on the EU as well as the role of joint complaints at the WTO and political considerations influencing the EU’s decision-making process.

Interval data without sign restrictions in DEA

Conventional DEA models assume deterministic, precise and non-negative data for input and output observations. However, real applications may be characterized by observations that are given in form of intervals and include negative numbers. For instance, the consumption of electricity in decentralized energy resources may be either negative or positive, depending on the heat consumption. Likewise, the heat losses in distribution networks may be within a certain range, depending on e.g. external temperature and real-time outtake. Complementing earlier work separately addressing the two problems; interval data and negative data; we propose a comprehensive evaluation process for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of DMUs in DEA. In our general formulation, the intervals may contain upper or lower bounds with different signs. The proposed method determines upper and lower bounds for the technical efficiency through the limits of the intervals after decomposition. Based on the interval scores, DMUs are then classified into three classes, namely, the strictly efficient, weakly efficient and inefficient. An intuitive ranking approach is presented for the respective classes. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the evaluation of bank branches. © 2013.

The influence of external forces on a monopolistic market:a statistical physics perspective

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‘New’ migrant identities: unravelling opportunities and restrictions

Labour and capital mobility from globalisation has given rise to significant increases in the reliance of migrant labour in established gateways, but also in new migration destinations. Many aspects of migrant incorporation in new migration destinations have received some attention, not least regarding employer and employee relations. Less attention has been focused on the construction of migrant as a marker of identification, although identities, particularly regarding gender and ethnicity, in the workplace have received considerable attention. This article aims to illuminate knowledge on how migration produces social change thereby responding to a call from Batnitzky et al. (2009, p. 1290) for additional attention on what ‘the practical and symbolic effects of migration are as people move across different structures and institutions of social control….’ Mindful of Goffman’s (1969, 1983) emphasis on individual interactions and experiences, it examines what it means to be a migrant in terms of everyday encounters and experiences. It investigates the array and interplay of internal and external processes that create migrant identities and the implications of this for social integration.

The paper argues that one of the paradoxes of globalisation, and of the associated increased levels of migrant labour, is the construction of the migrant identity that ultimately impedes social integration. It shows how the application of migrant identity (internally and externally) bestows a particular status that affects (options for) individual behaviour and subsequent actions and outcomes. The paper argues that while migrants value the migrant identity status because of the benefits that it brings, this status can also cause high levels of dissatisfaction among migrants and it can exclude migrants from wider benefits of full citizenship. Migrants have individual identification processes, but external forces, including social structures and institutions, also affect migrant identity. These forces help to shape individual expectations and standards, contributing to identity interruption and dissonance.

The paper is structured as follows: it uses social identity theory as a means of understanding what it is to be a ‘migrant’ in a new destination, while simultaneously recognising the inevitability of this generic label - migrants are an extremely heterogeneous group, made up of individuals with different experiences, values and so forth. The analysis considers the significance of context and of social interactions, thus paying attention to how identity is constructed and performed by the individual and also assigned by others. Empirical evidence is used to examine how having a migrant status affects individual prospects. The paper evaluates the extent to which patterns and processes of migration present an opportunity for social change, positive or negative.

Preservation Of The External Jugular Vein In Bilateral Radical Neck Dissections: Technique In Two Cases And Review Of The Literature.

Context. The possibility of cephalic venous hypertension with the resultant facial edema and elevated cerebrospinal fluid pressure continues to challenge head and neck surgeons who perform bilateral radical neck dissections during simultaneous or staged procedures. Case Report. The staged procedure in patients who require bilateral neck dissections allows collateral venous drainage to develop, mainly through the internal and external vertebral plexuses, thereby minimizing the risks of deleterious consequences. Nevertheless, this procedure has disadvantages, such as a delay in definitive therapy, the need for a second hospitalization and anesthesia, and the risk of cutting lymphatic vessels and spreading viable cancer cells. In this paper, we discuss the rationale and feasibility of preserving the external jugular vein. Considering the limited number of similar reports in the literature, two cases in which this procedure was accomplished are described. The relevant anatomy and technique are reviewed and the patients' outcomes are discussed. Conclusion. Preservation of the EJV during bilateral neck dissections is technically feasible, fast, and safe, with clinically and radiologically demonstrated patency.

Combined External Pressure And Cu-substitution Studies On Bafe2as2 Single Crystals.

We report a combined study of external pressure and Cu-substitution on BaFe2As2 single crystals grown by the in-flux technique. At ambient pressure, the Cu-substitution is known to suppress the spin density wave (SDW) phase in pure BaFe2As2(TSDW ≈ 140 K) and to induce a superconducting (SC) dome with a maximum transition temperature [Formula: see text]. This [Formula: see text] is much lower than the Tc ∼ 15-28 K achieved in the case of Ru, Ni and Co substitutions. Such a lower Tc is attributed to a Cu(2+) magnetic pair-breaking effect. The latter is strongly suppressed by applied pressure, as shown herein, Tc can be significantly enhanced by applying high pressures. In this work, we investigated the pressure effects on Cu(2+) magnetic pair-breaking in the BaFe2-xCuxAs2 series. Around the optimal concentration (xopd = 0.11), all samples showed a substantial increase of Tc as a function of pressure. Yet for those samples with a slightly higher doping level (over-doped regime), Tc presented a dome-like shape with maximum Tc ≃ 8 K. Remarkably interesting, the under-doped samples, e.g. x = 0.02 display a maximum pressure induced Tc ≃ 30 K which is comparable to the maximum Tc's found for the pure compound under external pressures. Furthermore, the magnetoresistance effect as a function of pressure in the normal state of the x = 0.02 sample also presented an evolution consistent with the screening of the Cu(2+) local moments. These findings demonstrate that the Cu(2+) magnetic pair-breaking effect is completely suppressed by applying pressure in the low concentration regime of Cu(2+) substituted BaFe2As2.