Essays in International Trade

Dans ma thèse doctorale, j'étudie trois facteurs importants qui caractérisent le commerce international : les différences technologiques entre les pays, les barrières à l'entrée sous la forme de coûts fixes et la migration internationale. Le premier chapitre analyse si les différences technologiques entre les pays peuvent expliquer la spécialisation dans le commerce international entre les pays. Pour mesurer le niveau de la spécialisation, je calcule les index de concentration pour la valeur des importations et des exportations et décompose la concentration totale dans la marge de produits extensive (nombre de produits commercialisés) et la marge de produits intensive (volume de produits commercialisés). En utilisant des données commerciales détaillées au niveau du produit dans 160 pays, mes résultats montrent que les exportations sont plus concentrées que les importations, que la spécialisation se produit principalement au niveau de la marge intensive du produit, et que les économies plus grandes disposent d'importations et d'exportations plus diversifiées, car elles commercialisent plus de produits. Compte tenu de ces faits, j'évalue la capacité du modèle Eaton-Kortum, le principal modèle de la théorie ricardienne du commerce, pour représenter les preuves empiriques. Les résultats montrent que la spécialisation à travers l'avantage comparatif induit par les différences de technologie peut expliquer les faits qualitatifs et quantitatifs. De plus, j'évalue le rôle des déterminants clés de la spécialisation : le degré de l'avantage comparatif, l'élasticité de la substitution et la géographie. Une implication de ces résultats est qu'il est important d’évaluer jusqu'à quel point la volatilité de production mesurée par la volatilité du PIB est motivée par la spécialisation des exportations et des importations. Étant donné le compromis entre l'ouverture du commerce et la volatilité de production, les bénéfices tirés du commerce peuvent s'avérer plus faibles que ceux estimés précédemment. Par conséquent, les politiques commerciales alternatives telles que l'ouverture graduelle au commerce combinée à la diversification de la production pour réduire la concentration de l'exportation peuvent se révéler être une meilleure stratégie que l'approche du laissez-faire. En utilisant la relation entre la taille du marché et l’entrée de firmes et produits, le deuxième chapitre évalue si les barrières à l'entrée sous la forme de coûts fixes à exporter sont au niveau de la firme ou au niveau du produit. Si les coûts fixes se trouvent au niveau de la firme, la firme multiproduits a un avantage de coût de production par rapport aux autres firmes parce qu’elles peuvent diviser les coûts fixes sur plusieurs produits. Dans ce cas, le commerce international sera caractérisé par peu de firmes qui exportent beaucoup des produits. Si les coûts fixes sont au niveau du produit, l’entrée d’un produit est associée avec l’entrée de plusieurs firmes. La raison est qu’une fois que la première firme entre et paye les coûts fixes du produit, elle crée un effet d’entrainement qui réduit les coûts fixes pour des firmes rivales. Dans ce cas, le commerce international sera caractérisé par plusieurs firmes qui vendent des variétés différentes du même produit. En utilisant des données détaillées provenant de 40 pays exportateurs à travers 180 marchés de destination, mes résultats montrent que les barrières à l'entrée se trouvent principalement au niveau du produit. Un marché plus large favorise l'expansion d'un plus grand nombre d’entreprises au sein d'une catégorie de produit plutôt que de permettre aux entreprises produisant plusieurs produits de croître dans une gamme de produits. En regardant la différence entre le nombre d'exportateurs au sein d'une catégorie de produit dans des destinations données, je trouve que le taux d'entrée de firmes augmente significativement après qu'un produit entre la première fois dans le marché. J'en déduis donc que le premier entrant réduit les coûts fixes pour les firmes suivantes. Mes recherches démontrent également que malgré une plus grande compétition sur le marché du produit, les entreprises disposent de revenus d'exportation supérieurs et sont plus susceptibles de rester sur les marchés internationaux. Ces résultats sont cohérents avec l’hypothèse que l’effet d’entrainement incite l'entrée de firmes rivales et permettent aux entreprises de produire à plus grande échelle. Cette recherche dévoile un nombre de conclusions importantes. D'abord, les politiques commerciales encouragent l'entrée de nouveaux produits, par exemple, en promouvant des produits dans les marchés de destination entraînant ainsi des retombées qui se traduiront par un taux de participation plus élevé de l'entreprise et une croissance de l'exportation. Deuxièmement, les consommateurs du pays importateur peuvent bénéficier de prix plus bas pour le produit en réduisant les barrières techniques du commerce. Troisièmement, lorsque l'on effectue des expérimentations politiques sous la forme de réduction des coûts commerciaux, il est de coutume de considérer uniquement une baisse des coûts marginaux et d'évaluer les répercussions sur le bien-être du consommateur. Cependant, un élément important des accords commerciaux est la réduction des barrières techniques au commerce grâce à la négociation de normes communes pour un produit. Négliger l'existence des barrières à l'entrée et les conséquences des réaffectations de l'industrie affaiblit l'impact des réformes commerciales. Le troisième chapitre prend en compte le rôle de l'information dans la facilitation du commerce international. Les immigrants réduisent les coûts de transaction dans le commerce international en fournissant des informations sur les possibilités d'échange avec leur pays d'origine. En utilisant des données géographiques détaillées sur l'immigration et les importations aux États-Unis entre 1970 et 2005, je quantifie l'incidence qu'ont les nouveaux immigrants sur la demande pour les importations de biens intermédiaires aux États-Unis. Pour établir le lien cause à effet entre le commerce et la migration, j’exploite l'important afflux d'immigrants d'Amérique centrale après l'ouragan Mitch. Les résultats montrent que l'augmentation de dix pour cent d'immigrants a fait croître la demande pour les importations de biens intermédiaires de 1,5 pour cent. Mes résultats sont robustes aux problèmes de la causalité inverse ou la décision d’émigrer est causée par des opportunités de faire du commerce.

Export of radioactive cesium from agricultural fields under simulated rainfall in Fukushima

In this study, we investigated the impact of rainfall on runoff, soil erosion and consequently on the discharge of radioactive cesium in agricultural fields in Fukushima prefecture using a rainfall simulator. Simulated heavy rainfalls (50 mm h-1) generated significant runoff and soil erosion. The average concentration of radioactive cesium (the sum of 134Cs and 137Cs) in the runoff sediments was [similar]3500 Bq kg-1 dry soil, more than double the concentrations measured in the field soils which should be considered in studies using the 137Cs loss to estimate long-term soil erosion. However, the estimated mass of cesium discharged through one runoff event was less than 2% of the cesium inventory in the field. This suggested that cesium discharge via soil erosion is not a significant factor in reducing the radioactivity of contaminated soils in Fukushima prefecture. However, the eroded sediment carrying radioactive cesium will deposit into the river systems and potentially pose a radioactivity risk for aquatic living organisms.

Particle export during a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi in the North-West European continental margin

Coccolithophores, the dominant pelagic calcifiers in the oceans, play a key role in the marine carbon cycle through calcification, primary production and carbon export, the main drivers of the biological CO2 pump. In May 2002 a cruise was conducted on the outer shelf of the North-West European continental margin, from the north Bay of Biscay to the Celtic Sea (47.0 degrees-50.5 degrees N, 5.0 degrees-11.0 degrees W), an area where massive blooms of Emiliania huxleyi are observed annually. Biogeochemical variables including primary production, calcification, partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), particle load, particulate organic and inorganic carbon (POC, PIC) and Th-234, were measured in surface waters to assess particle dynamic and carbon export in relation to the development of a coccolithophore bloom. We observed a marked northward decrease in Chl-a concentration and calcification rates: the bloom exhibited lower values and may be less well developed in the Goban Spur area. The export fluxes of POC and PIC from the top 80 m, determined using the ratios of POC and PIC to Th-234 of particles, ranged from 81 to 323 mg C m(-2) d(-1) and from 30 to 84 mg C m(-2) d(-1), respectively. The highest fluxes were observed in waters presenting a well-developed coccolithophore bloom, as shown by high reflectance of surface waters. This experiment confirms that the occurrence of coccolithophores promotes efficient export of organic and inorganic carbon on the North-West European margin.

India's Engineering Exports: Growth, Concentration and Diversification

The unprecedented increase in competition as well as protectionism in world markets makes it imperative for a country like India to get much more energetically involved in the export business and make the dictum "export and flourish" a really true proposition, as against a somewhat passive "export and perish" approach followed during the last three and a half decades. At present, India needs to evolve new export strategies to cope with the changing international scenario and to ensure a steady improvement in the otherwise sagging export performance. A search for such strategic measures becomes all the more important in view of the all-out efforts of the government for expanding the country's exports to tide over the crippling balance of payment deficits and to generate necessary foreign exchange to meet the import requirements for accelerating the tempo of economic development. The present study is an endeavour in this direction. Taking engineering exports as an example, the study demonstrates alternative ways of understanding indepth export performance analysis and learning lessons for better performance in future

From Market Concentration to Market Diversification: WTO and the Marine Products Exports from Kerala- Using ARIMA

Marine product export does something pivotal in the fish export economy of Kerala. The post WTO period has witnessed a strengthening of food safety and quality standards applied on food products in the developed countries. In the case of the primary importers, like the EU, the US and Japan, market actions will have far reaching reverberations and implications for the marine product exports from developing nations. The article focuses on Kerala’s marine product exports that had been targeting the markets of the EU, the US and Japan, and the concomitant shift in markets owing to the stringent stipulations under the WTO regime. Despite the overwhelming importance of the EU in the marine product exports of the state, the pronounced influence of irregular components on the quantity and value of marine product exports to the EU in the post WTO period raises concern. However, the tendencies of market diversification validated by the forecast generated for the emerging markets of the SEA, the MEA and others, to an extent, allay the pressures on the marine product export sector of the state which had hitherto relied heavily on the markets of the EU, the US and Japan

Export of dissolved organic carbon from an upland peatland during storm events: implications for flux estimates

Most of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported from catchments is transported during storm events. Accurate assessments of DOC fluxes are essential to understand long-term trends in the transport of DOC from terrestrial to aquatic systems, and also the loss of carbon from peatlands to determine changes in the source/sink status of peatland carbon stores. However, many long-term monitoring programmes collect water samples at a frequency (e.g. weekly/monthly) less than the time period of a typical storm event (typically <1–2 days). As widespread observations in catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils have shown that both concentration and flux of DOC increases during storm events, lower frequency monitoring could result in substantial underestimation of DOC flux as the most dynamic periods of transport are missed. However, our intensive monitoring study in a UK upland peatland catchment showed a contrasting response to these previous studies. Our results showed that (i) DOC concentrations decreased during autumn storm events and showed a poor relationship with flow during other seasons; and that (ii) this decrease in concentrations during autumn storms caused DOC flux estimates based on weekly monitoring data to be over-estimated, rather than under-estimated, because of over rather than under estimation of the flow-weighted mean concentration used in flux calculations. However, as DOC flux is ultimately controlled by discharge volume, and therefore rainfall, and the magnitude of change in discharge was greater than the magnitude of decline in concentrations, DOC flux increased during individual storm events. The implications for long-term DOC trends are therefore contradictory, as increased rainfall could increase flux but cause an overall decrease in DOC concentrations from peatland streams. Care needs to be taken when interpreting long-term trends in DOC flux rather than concentration; as flux is calculated from discharge estimates, and discharge is controlled by rainfall, DOC flux and rainfall/discharge will always be well correlated.

Free trade agreements in Latin America since 1990: an evaluation of export diversification

Includes bibliography

Rising concentration in Asia-Latin American value chains: Can small firms turn the tide?

Dynamic Asia has overtaken the European Union as Latin America and the Caribbean’s second largest export market, after the United States. However, the region’s exports to Asia remain concentrated in few commodities involving a small number of large firms. This book explores the present and future scope for the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in biregional trade and value chains and the measures that can be taken to make those chains more inclusive and sustainable. SMEs have a low direct presence in the region’s export flows and their participation in the supplier networks of multinational companies is weak. This volume reviews several supplier development programmes (SDPs) adopted in various countries in Asia and Latin America to increase SME linkages with multinational firms. These programmes, many of which are public-private initiatives, aim to boost SME productivity and enhance their participation in value chains.

Export Supply Chain Organization and Food Safety and Quality Standards: a case study of the Moroccan Fruit and Vegetable Sector

Agri-food supply chains extend beyond national boundaries, partially facilitated by a policy environment that encourages more liberal international trade. Rising concentration within the downstream sector has driven a shift towards “buyer-driven” global value chains (GVCs) extending internationally with global sourcing and the emergence of multinational key economic players that compete with increase emphasis on product quality attributes. Agri-food systems are thus increasingly governed by a range of inter-related public and private standards, both of which are becoming a priori mandatory, especially in supply chains for high-value and quality-differentiated agri-food products and tend to strongly affect upstream agricultural practices, firms’ internal organization and strategic behaviour and to shape the food chain organization. Notably, increasing attention has been given to the impact of SPS measures on agri-food trade and notably on developing countries’ export performance. Food and agricultural trade is the vital link in the mutual dependency of the global trade system and developing countries. Hence, developing countries derive a substantial portion of their income from food and agricultural trade. In Morocco, fruit and vegetable (especially fresh) are the primary agricultural export. Because of the labor intensity, this sector (especially citrus and tomato) is particularly important in terms of income and employment generation, especially for the female laborers hired in the farms and packing houses. Hence, the emergence of agricultural and agrifood product safety issues and the subsequent tightening of market requirements have challenged mutual gains due to the lack of technical and financial capacities of most developing countries.

Large-scale land acquisitions in Peru: Land (re)-concentration, agrarian change and reactions from rural communities

More than 40 years after the agrarian reform, Peru is experiencing a renewed process of concentration of land ownership in the hands of large-scale investors, favoring the development of a sugar cane production cluster along the northern coast. The expansion of the agricultural frontier by means of large irrigation projects – originally developed to benefit medium- and small-scale farmers – is carried out today in order to be sold to large-scale investors for the production of export crops. In the region of Piura the increasing presence of large-scale biofuel investors puts substantial pressure on land and water resources, not only changing the use of and access to land for local communities, but also generating water shortages vis-à-vis the multiple water demands of local food producers. The changes in land relations and the agro-ecosystem, the altering food production regime as well as the increasing proletarization of smallholders, is driving many locals – even those which (initially) welcomed the investment – into resistance activities against the increasing control of land, water and other natural resources in the hands of agribusinesses. The aim of this presentation is to discuss the contemporary political, social and cultural dynamics of agrarian change along the northern Peruvian coast as well as the «reactions from below» emanating from campesino communities, landless laborers, brick producers, pastoralists as well as other marginalized groups. The different strategies, forms and practices of resistance with the goal of the «protection of the territory» shall be explored as well as the reasons for their rather scattered occurrence and the lack of alliances on the land issue. This input shall make a contribution to the on-going debate on individual and communal property rights and the question of what is best in terms of collective defense against land grabbing.

Average nutrient concentration, and growth characteristics of bacteria during USCGC Healy cruises in 2002 and 2004

Standing stocks and production rates for phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria were examined during four expeditions in the western Arctic Ocean (Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin) in the spring and summer of 2002 and 2004. Rates of primary production (PP) and bacterial production (BP) were higher in the summer than in spring and in shelf waters than in the basin. Most surprisingly, PP was 3-fold higher in 2004 than in 2002; ice-corrected rates were 1581 and 458 mg C/m**2/d respectively, for the entire region. The difference between years was mainly due to low ice coverage in the summer of 2004. The spatial and temporal variation in PP led to comparable variation in BP. Although temperature explained as much variability in BP as did PP or phytoplankton biomass, there was no relationship between temperature and bacterial growth rates above about 0°C. The average ratio of BP to PP was 0.06 and 0.79 when ice-corrected PP rates were greater than and less than 100 mg C/m**2/d, respectively; the overall average was 0.34. Bacteria accounted for a highly variable fraction of total respiration, from 3% to over 60% with a mean of 25%. Likewise, the fraction of PP consumed by bacterial respiration, when calculated from growth efficiency (average of 6.9%) and BP estimates, varied greatly over time and space (7% to >500%). The apparent uncoupling between respiration and PP has several implications for carbon export and storage in the western Arctic Ocean.

Methane concentration in sediment cores during METEOR cruise M92

We studied the concurrence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction in surface sediments (0-25 cm below sea floor, cmbsf) at six stations (70, 145, 253, 407, 770 and 1024 m) along the Peruvian margin (12° S). This oceanographic region is characterized by high carbon export to the seafloor, creating an extensive oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) on the shelf, both factors that could favor surface methanogenesis. Sediments sampled along the depth transect traversed areas of anoxic and oxic conditions in the bottom-near water. Net methane production (batch incubations) and sulfate reduction (35S-sulfate radiotracer incubation) were determined in the upper 0-25 cmbsf of multicorer cores from all stations, while deep hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis (> 30 cmbsf, 14C-bicarbonate radiotracer incubation) was determined in two gravity cores at selected sites (78 and 407 m). Furthermore, stimulation (methanol addition) and inhibition (molybdate addition) experiments were carried out to investigate the relationship between sulfate reduction and methanogenesis. Highest rates of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction in the surface sediments, integrated over 0-25 cmbsf, were observed on the shelf (70-253 m, 0.06-0.1 and 0.5-4.7 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively), while lowest rates were discovered at the deepest site (1024 m, 0.03 and 0.2 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively). The addition of methanol resulted in significantly higher surface methanogenesis activity, suggesting that the process was mostly based on non-competitive substrates, i.e., substrates not used by sulfate reducers. In the deeper sediment horizons, where competition was probably relieved due to the decline of sulfate, the usage of competitive substrates was confirmed by the detection of hydrogenotrophic activity in the sulfate-depleted zone at the shallow shelf station (70 m). Surface methanogenesis appeared to be correlated to the availability of labile organic matter (C / N ratio) and organic carbon degradation (DIC production), both of which support the supply of methanogenic substrates. A negative correlation of methanogenesis rates with dissolved oxygen in the bottom-near water was not obvious, however, anoxic conditions within the OMZ might be advantageous for methanogenic organisms at the sediment-water interface. Our results revealed a high relevance of surface methanogenesis on the shelf, where the ratio between surface to deep (below sulfate penetration) methanogenic activity ranged between 0.13 and 105. In addition, methane concentration profiles indicate a partial release of surface methane into the water column as well as a partial consumption of methane by anaerobic methane oxidation (AOM) in the surface sediment. The present study suggests that surface methanogenesis might play a greater role in benthic methane budgeting than previously thought, especially for fueling AOM above the sulfate-methane transition zone.

Export of algal biomass from the melting Arctic sea ice

In the Arctic, under-ice primary production is limited to summer months and is not only restricted by ice thickness and snow cover but also by the stratification of the water column, which constrains nutrient supply for algal growth. RV Polarstern visited the ice-covered Eastern Central basins between 82 to 89°N and 30 to 130°E in summer 2012 when Arctic sea ice declined to a record minimum. During this cruise, we observed a widespread deposition of ice algal biomass of on average 9 g C per m**2 to the deep-sea floor of the Central Arctic basins. Data from this cruise will contribute to assessing the impact of current climate change on Arctic productivity, biodiversity, and ecological function.

(Table 2) Integrated concentration, production and dissolution of silica in the water column of the southern Pacific

An intense diatom bloom developed within a strong meridional silicic acid gradient across the Antarctic Polar Front at 61°S, 170°W following stratification of the water column in late October/early November 1997. The region of high diatom biomass and the silicic acid gradient propogated southward across the Seasonal Ice Zone through time, with the maximum diatom biomass tracking the center of the silicic acid gradient. High diatom biomass and high rates of silica production persisted within the silicic acid gradient until the end of January 1998 (ca. 70 d) driving the gradient over 500 km to the south of its original position at the Polar Front. The bloom consumed 30 to >40 µM Si(OH)4 in the euphotic zone between about 60 and 66°S leaving near surface concentrations <2.5 µM and occasionally <1.0 µM in its wake. Integrated biogenic silica concentrations within the bloom averaged 410 mmol Si/m**2 (range 162-793 mmol Si/m**2). Average integrated silica production on two consecutive cruises in December 1997 and January 1998 that sampled the bloom while it was well developed were 27.5±6.9 and 22.6±20 mmol Si/m**2/d, respectively. Those levels of siliceous biomass and silica production are similar in magnitude to those reported for ice-edge diatom blooms in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, which is considered to be among the most productive regions in the Southern Ocean. Net silica production (production minus dissolution) in surface waters during the bloom was 16-21 mmol Si/m**2/d, which is sufficient for diatom growth to be the cause of the southward displacement of the silicic acid gradient. A strong seasonal change in silica dissolution : silica production rate ratios was observed. Integrated silica dissolution rates in the upper 100-150 m during the low biomass period before stratification averaged 64% of integrated production. During the bloom integrated dissolution rates averaged only 23% of integrated silica production, making 77% of the opal produced available for export to depth. The bloom ended in late January apparently due to a mixing event. Dissolution : production rate ratios increased to an average of 0.67 during that period indicating a return to a predominantly regenerative system. Our observations indicate that high diatom biomass and high silica production rates previously observed in the marginal seas around Antarctica also occur in the deep ocean near the Polar Front. The bloom we observed propagated across the latitudinal band overlying the sedimentary opal belt which encircles most of Antarctica implying a role for such blooms in the formation of those sediments. Comparison of our surface silica production rates with new estimates of opal accumulation rates in the abyssal sediments of the Southern Ocean, which have been corrected for sediment focusing, indicate a burial efficiency of <=4.6% for biogenic silica. That efficiency is considerably lower than previous estimates for the Southern Ocean.