Analysis and Coordination of Expert Statements in the Problems of Intellectual Information Search

* This work was financially supported by RFBF-04-01-00858.

Interval Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

In the work [1] we proposed an approach of forming a consensus of experts’ statements in pattern recognition. In this paper, we present a method of aggregating sets of individual statements into a collective one for the case of forecasting of quantitative variable.

Measure Refutations and Metrics on Statements of Experts (Logical Formulas) in the Models for Some Theory

* This work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 04-01-00858a.

Multidimensional Heterogeneous Variable Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grant N07-01-00331a.

Tekstit viraston työssä : Tutkimus etuuspäätösten kielestä ja konteksteista

Texts in the work of a city department: A study of the language and context of benefit decisions This dissertation examines documents granting or denying the access to municipal services. The data consist of decisions on transport services made by the Social Services Department of the City of Helsinki. The circumstances surrounding official texts and their language and production are studied through textual analysis and interviews. The dissertation describes the textual features of the above decisions, and seeks to explain such features. Also explored are the topics and methods of genre studies, especially the relationship between text and context. Although the approach is linguistic, the dissertation also touches on research in social work and administrative decision making, and contributes to more general discussion on the language and duties of public administration. My key premise is that a text is more than a mere psycholinguistic phenomenon. Rather, a text is also a physical object and the result of certain production processes. This dissertation thus not only describes genre-specific features, but also sheds light on the work that generates the texts examined. Textual analysis and analyses of discursive practices are linked through an analysis of intertextuality: written decisions are compared with other application documents, such as expert statements and the applications themselves. The study shows that decisions are texts governed by strict rules and written with modest resources. Textwork is organised as hierarchical mass production. The officials who write decisions rely on standard phrases extracted from a computer system. This allows them to produce texts of uniform quality which have been approved by the department s legal experts. Using a computer system in text production does not, however, serve all the needs of the writers. This leads to many problems in the texts themselves. Intertextual analysis indicates that medical argumentation weighs most heavily in an application process, although a social appraisal should be carried out when deciding on applications for transport services. The texts reflect a hierarchy in which a physician ranks above the applicant, and the department s own expert physician ranks above the applicant s physician. My analysis also highlights good, but less obvious practices. The social workers and secretaries who write decisions must balance conflicting demands. They use delicate linguistic means to adjust the standard phrases to suit individual cases, and employ subtle strategies of politeness. The dissertation suggests that the customer contact staff who write official texts should be allowed to make better use of their professional competence. A more general concern is that legislation and new management strategies require more and more documentation. Yet, textwork is only rarely taken into account in the allocation of resources. Keywords: (Critical) text analysis, genre analysis, administration, social work, administrative language, texts, genres, context, intertextuality, discursive practices

Мера опровержимости высказываний экспертов, расстояния в многозначной логике и процессы адаптации

В работе определяются и доказываются свойства расстояний на высказываниях экспертов в многозначной логике и изучается мера опровержимости таких высказываний. Получены обобщения на общий случай результатов, доказанных ранеее в случае 2-значного и 3-значного исчислений [1].

On Coordination of Experts’ Estimations of Quantitative Variable

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grants N07-01-00331a, 08-07-00136a

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Deficiencies of scope statements in ITLET standardization

To execute good design one not only needs to know what to do and how to do it, but also why it should be done. For a standardization expert the rationale of a standardization project may be found in the proposal for a new work item or terms of reference, but rarely in the scope statement. However, it is also commonplace that the rationale of the project is not clearly stated in any of these parts. If the rationale is not surfaced in the early phases of a project, it is left to the design, sense-making and negotiation cycles of the design process to orient the project towards a goal. This paper explores how scope statements are used to position standardization projects in the IT for Learning, Education and Training (ITLET) domain, and how scope and rationale are understood in recent projects in European and international standardization. Based on two case-studies the paper suggests some actions for further research and improvement of the process.

Construction of Neural Network Classification Expert Systems Using Switching Theory Algorithms

A new family of neural network architectures is presented. This family of architectures solves the problem of constructing and training minimal neural network classification expert systems by using switching theory. The primary insight that leads to the use of switching theory is that the problem of minimizing the number of rules and the number of IF statements (antecedents) per rule in a neural network expert system can be recast into the problem of minimizing the number of digital gates and the number of connections between digital gates in a Very Large Scale Integrated (VLSI) circuit. The rules that the neural network generates to perform a task are readily extractable from the network's weights and topology. Analysis and simulations on the Mushroom database illustrate the system's performance.

Responding to desire to die statements from patients with advanced disease:recommendations for health professionals

It is not uncommon for patients with advanced incurable disease to express a desire to hasten their death. Health professionals often have difficulty responding to such statements, and find it challenging to ascertain why these statements are made. Health professionals may struggle to determine whether a 'desire to die' statement (DTDS) is about a request for hastened death, a sign of psychosocial distress, or merely a passing comment that is not intended to be heard literally as a death wish. Given the lack of guidelines to assist health professionals with this issue, we have prepared multidisciplinary recommendations for responding to a DTDS, underpinned by key principles of therapeutic communication and a systematic review of empirical literature. Where the relevant literature was lacking, the recommendations were drafted by the authors (clinicians and/ or academics from the following disciplines: nursing, medicine, psychiatry, psychology, sociology, aged care and theology), based on their expert opinion. Multiple drafts of the recommendations were circulated to the authors for refinement until consensus was reached. Strategies for advancing the evidence base for the maturation of guidelines in this area are offered.

Methodologies for the Development of the Management of Cough: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND: This series of guidance documents on cough, which will be published over time, is a hybrid of two processes: (1) evidence-based guidelines and (2) trustworthy consensus statements based on a robust and transparent process.

METHODS: The CHEST Guidelines Oversight Committee selected a nonconflicted Panel Chair and jointly assembled an international panel of experts in each clinical area with few, if any, conflicts of interest. PICO (population, intervention, comparator, outcome)-based key questions and parameters of eligibility were developed for each clinical topic to inform the comprehensive literature search. Existing guidelines, systematic reviews, and primary studies were assessed for relevance and quality. Data elements were extracted into evidence tables and synthesized to provide summary statistics. These, in turn, are presented to support the evidence-based graded recommendations. A highly structured consensus-based Delphi approach was used to provide expert advice on all guidance statements. Transparency of process was documented.

RESULTS: Evidence-based guideline recommendations and consensus-based suggestions were carefully crafted to provide direction to health-care providers and investigators who treat and/or study patients with cough. Manuscripts and tables summarize the evidence in each clinical area supporting the recommendations and suggestions.

CONCLUSIONS: The resulting guidance statements are based on a rigorous methodology and transparency of process. Unless otherwise stated, the recommendations and suggestions meet the guidelines for trustworthiness developed by the Institute of Medicine and can be applied with confidence by physicians, nurses, other health-care providers, investigators, and patients.

La relation complexe du juge et de l'expert-psychiatre

L'expertise psychiatrique est requise au tribunal dans plusieurs situations juridiques tant en matière criminelle que civile et elle est soumise aux mêmes règles de preuve que n'importe quelle expertise. Pourtant, la psychiatrie et son objet sont tout à fait particuliers. La relation que peuvent entretenir le juge et l'expert-psychiatre est teintée par plusieurs éléments de nature sociale et professionnelle, mais aussi simplement juridique et procédural. Alors que les juristes parlent de cette relation comme d'une usurpation du rôle du juge par l'expert-psychiatre, les psychiatres, au contraire, croient que leur expertise est totalement pervertie dans le processus judiciaire. Mais la réalité n'est pourtant pas univoque: si l'expertise psychiatrique est de façon générale une preuve parmi les autres, elle peut également occuper une place centrale dans le mécanisme décisionnel.

Psoriasis beyond the skin: an expert group consensus on the management of psoriatic arthritis and common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis

BACKGROUND Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and co-morbidities of psoriasis represent a significant clinical and economic burden for patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Often these co-morbidities may go unrecognized or undertreated. While published data are available on the incidence and impact of some of them, practical guidance for dermatologists on detection and management of these co-morbidities is lacking. OBJECTIVE To prepare expert recommendations to improve the detection and management of common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. METHODS A systematic literature review was conducted on some common co-morbidities of psoriasis-cardiovascular (CV) diseases (including obesity, hypertension, hyperglycaemia and dyslipidaemia), psychological co-morbidities (including depression, alcohol abuse and smoking) and PsA-to establish the incidence and impact of each. Data gaps were identified and a Delphi survey was carried out to obtain consensus on the detection and management of each co-morbidity. The expert panel members for the Delphi survey comprised 10 dermatologists with substantial clinical expertise in managing moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients, as well as a cardiologist and a psychologist (see appendix) with an interest in dermatology. Agreement was defined using a Likert scale of 1-7. Consensus regarding agreement for each statement was defined as ≥75% of respondents scoring either 1 (strongly agree) or 2 (agree). RESULTS The expert panel members addressed several topics including screening, intervention, monitoring frequency, and the effects of anti-psoriatic treatment on each co-morbidity. Consensus was achieved on 12 statements out of 22 (3 relating to PsA, 4 relating to psychological factors, 5 relating to CV factors). The panel members felt that dermatologists have an important role in screening their psoriasis patients for PsA and in assessing them for psychological and CV co-morbidities. In most cases, however, patients should be referred for specialist management if other co-morbidities are detected. CONCLUSION This article provides useful and practical guidance for the detection and management of common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis.

Expert systems for crash data collection.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations, Washington, D.C.