Analysis and Coordination of Expert Statements in the Problems of Intellectual Information Search

* This work was financially supported by RFBF-04-01-00858.

Interval Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

In the work [1] we proposed an approach of forming a consensus of experts’ statements in pattern recognition. In this paper, we present a method of aggregating sets of individual statements into a collective one for the case of forecasting of quantitative variable.

Measure Refutations and Metrics on Statements of Experts (Logical Formulas) in the Models for Some Theory

* This work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 04-01-00858a.

Multidimensional Heterogeneous Variable Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grant N07-01-00331a.

Kustannusrakenteen simulointi ja optimointi

Primääripakatun tuotteen liiketoiminnallisen arvoketjun kustannusrakenteen tunnistaminen tuo merkittävää lisäarvoa pakkausliiketoiminnan suunnittelua koskevaan päätöksentekoon. Tämän konstruktiivisen tutkimuksen tavoitteena on rakentaa pakkaustuotannon liiketoiminnallisen arvoketjun simulointimalli, jonka avulla voidaan analysoida pakkaustuotannon arvoketjun kustannusrakennetta lähtien pakkausraaka-aineen valmistuksesta ja päättyen kaupan vähittäismyyntiin. Käytettävä tutkimusaineisto koostuu jonoteoriaan ja tuotannonsuunnitteluun liittyvästä kirjallisuudesta, tieteellisistä artikkeleista sekä asiantuntijalausunnoista. Tutkimuksen yhteydessä rakennetun simulointimallin avulla määritettiin erään primääripakatun tuotteen konvertointivaiheen optimaalinen valmistuseräkoko ja liiketoiminnallisen arvoketjun kustannusrakenne. Arvoketjuanalyysissä primääripakatun tuotteen kustannustekijöiksi määritettiin pakkausmateriaali, pakkausvalmistus, pakattava tuote, pakkauksen täyttö ja suljenta sekä pakatun tuotteen jakelulogistiikka ja vähittäismyynti. Arvoketjuanalyysin johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että primääripakatulle esimerkkituotteelle kohdistuvista kustannuksista noin 97 % on brand ownerin ja vähittäismyynnin aiheuttamia ja noin 3 % varsinaisesta tuotteen pakkaamisesta aiheutuvia.

Innovatiivisuus ja yhteistoiminnallinen oppiminen liike-elämässä ja opetuksessa

Innovativity and cooperative learning in business life and teaching The study comprises four articles and a summary, which analyse the concepts of innovation and innovativity and the cooperative learning connected to the innovation processes of companies. Th e study comments on what is innovativity. Another point of inspection is how the cooperative learning theory constructed on the basis of educational science lends it self to inspecting business innovations. At the end, we ponder upon how the concepts of innovativity can be used to inspect teachers’ activities. The studied business innovations were chosen on after considering expert statements. The key personnel in the innovation process were interviewed. The concept of innovation is inspected especially with the aid of concept analysis. The pedagogical innovativity study based on the view of education specialists in quantitative and the data was collected with a questionnaire created on the basis of previous research and literature. Different research methods were used in the studies, thus mixed methods were used for the whole of the doctoral thesis. The starting point for the whole, grounded theory, has to be understood here as a research strategy as well as a research method and data analysis method. The results show that innovativity is creativity that demands versatile learning and has positive eff ects on the process or event in practice. The results also show that in successful innovation businesses cooperative learning is something that has been found instead of searched. Cooperative learning can be seen as characteristic for innovation businesses. The five stage division of cooperative learning creates a useful method of analysing learning in innovation businesses. Innovativity connected to cooperative learning seems to make the creation of innovations possible. In addition to this, the results also show that a teacher’s innovativity is connected to reforms and an attitude that embraces them. Versatile learning in the individual and community is a prerequisite for innovativity. It is important that the teacher has a continuous will to renew teaching methods and combine work and teaching methods. The basic requirements are pedagogical vocational profi ciency and resourcefulness in everyday work.

Мера опровержимости высказываний экспертов, расстояния в многозначной логике и процессы адаптации

В работе определяются и доказываются свойства расстояний на высказываниях экспертов в многозначной логике и изучается мера опровержимости таких высказываний. Получены обобщения на общий случай результатов, доказанных ранеее в случае 2-значного и 3-значного исчислений [1].

On Coordination of Experts’ Estimations of Quantitative Variable

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grants N07-01-00331a, 08-07-00136a

Appropriateness of methadone maintenance treatment for opiate addiction: evaluation by an expert panel.

With some 30,000 dependent persons, opiate addiction constitutes a major public health problem in Switzerland. The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) has long played a leading role in the prevention and treatment of opiate addiction and in research on effective means of containing the epidemic of opiate addiction and its consequences. Major milestones on that path have been the successive "Methadone reports" published by that Office and providing guidance on the care of opiate addiction with substitution treatment. In view of updating the recommendations for the appropriateness of substitution treatment for opiate addiction, in particular for the prescription of methadone, the FOPH commissioned a multi-component project involving the following elements. A survey of current attitudes and practices in Switzerland related to opiate substitution treatment Review of Swiss literature on methadone substitution treatment Review of international literature on methadone substitution treatment National Methadone Substitution Conference Multidisciplinary expert panel to evaluate the appropriateness of substitution treatment. The present report documents the process and summarises the results of the latter element above. The RAND appropriateness method (RAM) was used to distil from literature-based evidence and systematically formulated expert opinion, areas where consensus exist on the appropriateness (or inappropriateness) of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and areas where disagreement or uncertainty persist and which should be further pursued. The major areas which were addressed by this report are Initial assessment of candidates for MMT Appropriate settings for initiation of MMT (general and special cases) Appropriateness of methadone supportive therapy Co-treatments and accompanying measures Dosage schedules and pharmacokinetic testing Withdrawal from MMT Miscellaneous questions Appropriateness of other (non-methadone) substitution treatment Summary statements for each of the above categories are derived from the panel meeting and presented in the report. In the "first round", agreement was observed for 31% of the 553 theoretical scenarios evaluated. The "second round" rating, following discussion of divergent ratings, resulted in a much higher agreement among panellists, reaching 53% of the 537 scenarios. Frank disagreement was encountered for 7% of all scenarios. Overall 49% of the clinical situations (scenarios) presented were considered appropriate. The areas where at least 50% of the situations were considered appropriate were "initial assessment of candidates for MMT", the "appropriate settings for initiation of MMT", the "appropriate settings for methadone supportive treatment" and "Appropriateness of other (non-methadone) substitution treatment". The area where there was the least consensus on appropriateness concerned "appropriateness of withdrawal from MMT" (6%). The report discusses the implications and limitations of the panel results and provides recommendations for the dissemination, application, and future use of the criteria for the appropriateness of MMT. The RAND Appropriateness Method proved to be an accepted and appreciated method to assess the appropriateness of methadone maintenance treatment for opiate addicts. In the next step, the results of the expert panel process must now be combined with those of the Swiss and international literature reviews and the survey of current attitudes and practices in Switzerland, to be synthesized into formal practice guidelines. Such guidelines should be disseminated to all concerned, promoted, used and rigorously evaluated for compliance and outcome.

La relation complexe du juge et de l'expert-psychiatre

L'expertise psychiatrique est requise au tribunal dans plusieurs situations juridiques tant en matière criminelle que civile et elle est soumise aux mêmes règles de preuve que n'importe quelle expertise. Pourtant, la psychiatrie et son objet sont tout à fait particuliers. La relation que peuvent entretenir le juge et l'expert-psychiatre est teintée par plusieurs éléments de nature sociale et professionnelle, mais aussi simplement juridique et procédural. Alors que les juristes parlent de cette relation comme d'une usurpation du rôle du juge par l'expert-psychiatre, les psychiatres, au contraire, croient que leur expertise est totalement pervertie dans le processus judiciaire. Mais la réalité n'est pourtant pas univoque: si l'expertise psychiatrique est de façon générale une preuve parmi les autres, elle peut également occuper une place centrale dans le mécanisme décisionnel.

Psoriasis beyond the skin: an expert group consensus on the management of psoriatic arthritis and common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis

BACKGROUND Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and co-morbidities of psoriasis represent a significant clinical and economic burden for patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Often these co-morbidities may go unrecognized or undertreated. While published data are available on the incidence and impact of some of them, practical guidance for dermatologists on detection and management of these co-morbidities is lacking. OBJECTIVE To prepare expert recommendations to improve the detection and management of common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. METHODS A systematic literature review was conducted on some common co-morbidities of psoriasis-cardiovascular (CV) diseases (including obesity, hypertension, hyperglycaemia and dyslipidaemia), psychological co-morbidities (including depression, alcohol abuse and smoking) and PsA-to establish the incidence and impact of each. Data gaps were identified and a Delphi survey was carried out to obtain consensus on the detection and management of each co-morbidity. The expert panel members for the Delphi survey comprised 10 dermatologists with substantial clinical expertise in managing moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients, as well as a cardiologist and a psychologist (see appendix) with an interest in dermatology. Agreement was defined using a Likert scale of 1-7. Consensus regarding agreement for each statement was defined as ≥75% of respondents scoring either 1 (strongly agree) or 2 (agree). RESULTS The expert panel members addressed several topics including screening, intervention, monitoring frequency, and the effects of anti-psoriatic treatment on each co-morbidity. Consensus was achieved on 12 statements out of 22 (3 relating to PsA, 4 relating to psychological factors, 5 relating to CV factors). The panel members felt that dermatologists have an important role in screening their psoriasis patients for PsA and in assessing them for psychological and CV co-morbidities. In most cases, however, patients should be referred for specialist management if other co-morbidities are detected. CONCLUSION This article provides useful and practical guidance for the detection and management of common co-morbidities in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis.

Expert systems for crash data collection.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations, Washington, D.C.

The FTC cigarette test method for determining tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide yields of U.S. cigarettes : report of the NCI expert committee.

"T667"--P. [4] of cover.

Practical guide for the diagnosis and management of asthma : based on the Expert Panel report 2 : guidelines for the diagnosis and management of asthma.

"October 1997."

Kansas nonmonetary expert system prototype /

"Contract number 99-7-4646-04-142-01."