Patterns in the lottery game

The present study is based on the analysis and results of a close to 5 years’ study in the frame which we used a “Lottery Game” in the "Decision Making Skills" subject taught at Corvinus Business School, Corvinus University of Budapest. In the frame of the "game", the students (Hungarians (n=231) and foreigners (n=267) alike) have to mark 6 numbers on a 7x7 lottery ticket. The winner is the student whose numbers differ the most from those of all the other students’. Upon analyzing the results (irrespectively of nationality) the authors have noted something notable: the winning combinations - rather than being located randomly on the ticket, characteristically resemble a geometric form. In our study we wanted to detect the relevance of geometry in this kind of choices. It is hypothesized that in such games (lottery type, related to numeric combination choice), where the players decide upon their strategy (choice of numbers) by also taking into consideration others’ expected choices, the winning strategy is characteristically some consciously chosen scheme or pattern as opposed to a random one. The study presents the results of the available samples (Hungarian students: n=231, foreign students: n=267), the winning combinations, the most often designated numbers, as well as the least “popular” numbers and their presentation on a "heat map". In the case of the majority of the winning tickets we found the use of conscious strategic choice to be more useful. These conscious strategic decisions were reflected in identifiable geometric forms. Based on the results, we hypothesize that in the "hidden lottery" game – in contrast with random choice – the most effective strategy of choice is the conscious ordered one in which the player marks the numbers on the lottery ticket in some modified geometric pattern. The goal of the paper is to propose further research on the field.

Is Foxtel most at risk in the new Game of Screens?

If the experience in other major television markets like the United States and Canada is anything to go by, the omens are mixed for Foxtel.

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Evolution of Cooperation in the Snowdrift Game with Incomplete Information and Heterogeneous Population

Differently from previous studies of tag-based cooperation, we assume that individuals fail to recognize their own tag. Due to such incomplete information, the action taken against the opponent cannot be based on similarity, although it is still motivated by the tag displayed by the opponent. We present stability conditions for the case when individuals play unconditional cooperation, unconditional defection or conditional cooperation. We then consider the removal of one or two strategies. Results show that conditional cooperators are the most resilient agents against extinction and that the removal of unconditional cooperators may lead to the extinction of unconditional defectors.

“A Labour Leader in a Frothy Scoundrel”: Farce and Social Justice in the Popular Dramaturgy of George Shiels

In the financially precarious period which followed the partition of Ireland (1922) the Northern Irish playwright George Shiels kept The Abbey Theatre, Dublin, open for business with a series of ‘box-office’ successes. Literary Dublin was not so appreciative of his work as the Abbey audiences dubbing his popular dramaturgy mere ‘kitchen comedy’. However, recent analysts of Irish theatre are beginning to recognise that Shiels used popular theatre methods to illuminate and interrogate instances of social injustice both north and south of the Irish border. In doing so, such commentators have set up a hierarchy between the playwright’s early ‘inferior’ comedies and his later ‘superior’ works of Irish Realism. This article rejects this binary by suggesting that in this early work Shiels’s intent is equally socially critical and that in the plays Paul Twyning, Professor Tim and The Retrievers he is actively engaging with the farcical tradition in order to expose the marginalisation of the landless classes in Ireland in the post-colonial jurisdictions.

Structural characterization and biological activity of polysaccharides from infusions used in the popular tradition

The use of plants with medicinal purposes is an ancient practice still very common in developing regions, and is rapidly spreading in industrialized countries. This fact is evidenced by the large number of ethnobotanical studies found in the literature referring that these plants are often used as decoctions and infusions. In most studies the reported biological activities are attributed to the presence of phenolic compounds, due to their antioxidant properties, and to polysaccharides, with its anti-tumoral properties. In “Trás-os-Montes” region, some of the most popular infusions used by the popular medicine are prepared with the dried leaves of Fraxinus angustifolia, the dried shoots of Mentha suaveolens, and the dried inflorescences of Pterospartum tridentatum. However, there are no studies about the polysaccharides present in these infusions. Thus, through the structural characterization of the polysaccharides present in the infusions of F. angustifolia, M. suaveolens, and P. tridentatum, the present PhD thesis intends to evaluate the possible relation between polysaccharides and the immunostimulatory activity that these infusions might present. In a preliminary phase, infusions of F. angustifolia were prepared according to the popular tradition, and it was observed that the obtained water soluble material contained approximately 85% of material non-retained in C18 cartridges, with hydrophilic characteristics, with the remaining 15% comprising retained-material with hydrophobic characteristics. It was also shown that the infusions only contained between 2 and 4% of high molecular weight material (HMWM), which comprised approximately 30% of carbohydrate material. Sugar and methylation analysis of the HMWM suggested the presence of pectic polysaccharides, together with type II arabinogalactans, mannans, and xyloglucans. However, the amount of material obtained is to low for the fractionation, and structural analysis of the polysaccharides present. The 4 h decoction, divided in two periods of 2 h, with water renewal, allowed to increase the HMWM yield, relatively to the infusions traditional infusions. It was also observed that the decoction also allowed to increase the HMWM proportion of carbohydrate material, due to an increase in the proportion of uronic acid present, although the neutral sugar residues seemed to be detected in similar proportions. Therefore, in all the experiments subsequently performed, the HMWM used was obtained through the decoction of F. angustifolia dried leaves, M. suaveolens dried shoots, and P. tridentatum dried inflorescences. x After the fractionation, through ethanol precipitation, and anion exchange chromatography, of the polysaccharides from the HMWM obtained by the decoction of the vegetable material of the distinct studied plants, it was observed the presence of high proportions of pectic polysaccharides, containing type I arabinogalactans, together with minor proportions of type II arabinogalactans, mannans, and xyloglucans. The presence of pectic polysaccharides in the extracts from F. angustifolia was also evidenced through endo-polygalacturonase treatment, and ESI-MS and ESI-MS/MS experiments. The detection of linked pentose and uronic acid residues, also seemed to suggest the presence of xylogalacturonan domains in the pectic polysaccharides from F. angustifolia. The extracts from F. angustifolia dried leaves also contained type II arabinogalactans that exhibited a higher structural diversity than those detected in the M. suaveolens, and P. tridentatum extracts, particularly in the substitution degree of the galactan backbone, and in the extension of the (1→5)-Araf side chains. Moreover, for all the plants studied, it was also observed that the type II arabinogalactans, extracted during the 2nd 2h of the extraction process, exhibited a substitution degree of the galactan backbone higher than those extracted during the 1st 2h. The extracts from P. tridentatum dried inflorescences contained higher proportions of mannans, and also of xyloglucans, both presenting a substitution degree higher than those, which were detected in lower proportion in the extracts of F. angustifolia and M. suaveolens. Through ESI-MS and ESI-MS/MS it was possible to evidence that the mannans present in the extracts of P. tridentatum presented acetyl groups on the O-2 of the mannosyl residues. It was also evidenced that the P. tridentatum mannans were more extensively acetylated than the mannans detected in the coffee infusion, LBG, and other non-conventional mannan sources. Moreover, it was detected the presence of oligosaccharides comprising hexose residues linked to non acetylated pentose residues, suggesting the possible presence of arabinose residues in the mannans from P. tridentatum extracts. The immunostimulatory activity of three fractions isolated from the extracts of F. angustifolia, M. suaveolens, and P. tridentatum, was tested and an increase in the NO production by macrophages, without compromising their cellular viability, was observed. The type I, and type II arabinogalactans detected in the extracts from F. angustifolia, and M. suaveolens seem to have contributed for the observed immunostimulatory activity. For the fraction from P. tridentatum, the mannans acetylation, and the presence of type I, and type II arabinogalactans seemed to contribute for the macrophage immunostimulatory activity observed. The possible presence of storage xyloglucans from the inflorescences seeds, also seems to have contributed for the immunostimulatory activity registered when the macrophages were stimulated with higher extract concentrations. The results obtained allow to conclude that the extracts of F. angustifolia dried leaves, M. suaveolens dried shoots, and P. tridentatum dried inflorescences contained high proportions of pectic polysaccharides, exhibiting type I arabinogalactans, together with other polysaccharides, such as type II arabinogalactans, mannans, and xyloglucans. This polysaccharide mixture seems to have contributed to the immunostimulatory activity of fractions isolated from the extracts of the studied plants. Therefore, as the same type of polysaccharides seem to be present in the decoctions and in the infusions, it seems possible that the polysaccharides might contribute for the therapeutic properties frequently associated by the popular tradition to the infusions of these plants.