An Online Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Changepoint Models

Changepoint models are widely used to model the heterogeneity of sequential data. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the static parameters of such models. The SMC online EM algorithm has a cost per time which is linear in the number of particles and could be particularly important when the data is representable as a long sequence of observations, since it drastically reduces the computational requirements for implementation. We present an asymptotic analysis for the stability of the SMC estimates used in the online EM algorithm and demonstrate the performance of this scheme using both simulated and real data originating from DNA analysis.

An Online Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Changepoint Models

Changepoint models are widely used to model the heterogeneity of sequential data. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the static parameters of such models. The SMC online EM algorithm has a cost per time which is linear in the number of particles and could be particularly important when the data is representable as a long sequence of observations, since it drastically reduces the computational requirements for implementation. We present an asymptotic analysis for the stability of the SMC estimates used in the online EM algorithm and demonstrate the performance of this scheme using both simulated and real data originating from DNA analysis.

Weighted least squares with expectation-maximization algorithm for burst detection in U.K. water distribution systems

Flow measurement data at the district meter area (DMA) level has the potential for burst detection in the water distribution systems. This work investigates using a polynomial function fitted to the historic flow measurements based on a weighted least-squares method for automatic burst detection in the U.K. water distribution networks. This approach, when used in conjunction with an expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm, can automatically select useful data from the historic flow measurements, which may contain normal and abnormal operating conditions in the distribution network, e.g., water burst. Thus, the model can estimate the normal water flow (nonburst condition), and hence the burst size on the water distribution system can be calculated from the difference between the measured flow and the estimated flow. The distinguishing feature of this method is that the burst detection is fully unsupervised, and the burst events that have occurred in the historic data do not affect the procedure and bias the burst detection algorithm. Experimental validation of the method has been carried out using a series of flushing events that simulate burst conditions to confirm that the simulated burst sizes are capable of being estimated correctly. This method was also applied to eight DMAs with known real burst events, and the results of burst detections are shown to relate to the water company's records of pipeline reparation work. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

An approach to operational modal analysis using the expectation maximization algorithm

This paper presents the Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) applied to operational modal analysis of structures. The EM algorithm is a general-purpose method for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) that in this work is used to estimate state space models. As it is well known, the MLE enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view, which make it very attractive in practice. However, the EM algorithm has two main drawbacks: its slow convergence and the dependence of the solution on the initial values used. This paper proposes two different strategies to choose initial values for the EM algorithm when used for operational modal analysis: to begin with the parameters estimated by Stochastic Subspace Identification method (SSI) and to start using random points. The effectiveness of the proposed identification method has been evaluated through numerical simulation and measured vibration data in the context of a benchmark problem. Modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using SSI and the EM algorithm. On the whole, the results show that the application of the EM algorithm starting from the solution given by SSI is very useful to identify the vibration modes of a structure, discarding the spurious modes that appear in high order models and discovering other hidden modes. Similar results are obtained using random starting values, although this strategy allows us to analyze the solution of several starting points what overcome the dependence on the initial values used.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Modal Parameters in Structures Using the Expectation Maximization Algorithm

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. The benchmark structure is a four-story, two-bay by two-bay steel-frame scale model structure built in the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. This paper focuses on Phase I of the analytical benchmark studies. A MATLAB-based finite element analysis code obtained from the IASC-ASCE SHM Task Group web site is used to calculate the dynamic response of the prototype structure. A number of 100 simulations have been made using this MATLAB-based finite element analysis code in order to evaluate the proposed identification method. There are several techniques to realize system identification. In this work, stochastic subspace identification (SSI)method has been used for comparison. SSI identification method is a well known method and computes accurate estimates of the modal parameters. The principles of the SSI identification method has been introduced in the paper and next the proposed MLE with EM algorithm has been explained in detail. The advantages of the proposed structural identification method can be summarized as follows: (i) the method is based on maximum likelihood, that implies minimum variance estimates; (ii) EM is a computational simpler estimation procedure than other optimization algorithms; (iii) estimate more parameters than SSI, and these estimates are accurate. On the contrary, the main disadvantages of the method are: (i) EM algorithm is an iterative procedure and it consumes time until convergence is reached; and (ii) this method needs starting values for the parameters. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using both the SSI method and the proposed MLE + EM method. The numerical results show that the proposed method identifies eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes reasonably well even in the presence of 10% measurement noises. These modal parameters are more accurate than the SSI estimated modal parameters.

Operational Modal Analysis using Expectation Maximization Algorithm

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Expectation Maximization algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated applying the proposed identification method to a set of 100 simulated cases. The numerical results show that the proposed method estimates all the modal parameters reasonably well in the presence of 30% measurement noise even. Finally, advantages and disadvantages of the method have been discussed.

String-averaging expectation-maximization for maximum likelihood estimation in emission tomography

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An online expectation-maximisation algorithm for nonnegative matrix factorisation models

In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other unknown static parameters. We also propose a sequential Monte Carlo approximation of our online EM algorithm. We show the performance of the proposed method with two numerical examples. © 2012 IFAC.

A Monte Carlo expectation maximisation algorithm for multiple target tracking

In this paper, we present an expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in multiple target models (MTT) with Gaussian linear state-space dynamics. We show that estimation of sufficient statistics for EM in a single Gaussian linear state-space model can be extended to the MTT case along with a Monte Carlo approximation for inference of unknown associations of targets. The stochastic approximation EM algorithm that we present here can be used along with any Monte Carlo method which has been developed for tracking in MTT models, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm with a simulation. © 2012 ISIF (Intl Society of Information Fusi).

Using the EM algorithm to estimate the state space model for OMAX

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Expectation Maximization algorithm that is applied to the estimation of modal parameters from system input and output data. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the simulated structure are estimated applying the proposed identification method to a set of 100 simulated cases. The numerical results show that the proposed method estimates the modal parameters with precision in the presence of 20% measurement noise even. Finally, advantages and disadvantages of the method have been discussed.

A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes.

Design and analysis of distributed utility maximization algorithm for multihop wireless network with inaccurate feedback

Distributed network utility maximization (NUM) is receiving increasing interests for cross-layer optimization problems in multihop wireless networks. Traditional distributed NUM algorithms rely heavily on feedback information between different network elements, such as traffic sources and routers. Because of the distinct features of multihop wireless networks such as time-varying channels and dynamic network topology, the feedback information is usually inaccurate, which represents as a major obstacle for distributed NUM application to wireless networks. The questions to be answered include if distributed NUM algorithm can converge with inaccurate feedback and how to design effective distributed NUM algorithm for wireless networks. In this paper, we first use the infinitesimal perturbation analysis technique to provide an unbiased gradient estimation on the aggregate rate of traffic sources at the routers based on locally available information. On the basis of that, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm to solve the distributed NUM problem with inaccurate feedback. We then prove that the proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum solution of distributed NUM with perfect feedback under certain conditions. The proposed algorithm is applied to the joint rate and media access control problem for wireless networks. Numerical results demonstrate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design and analysis of distributed utility maximization algorithm for multihop wireless network with inaccurate feedback

Distributed network utility maximization (NUM) is receiving increasing interests for cross-layer optimization problems in multihop wireless networks. Traditional distributed NUM algorithms rely heavily on feedback information between different network elements, such as traffic sources and routers. Because of the distinct features of multihop wireless networks such as time-varying channels and dynamic network topology, the feedback information is usually inaccurate, which represents as a major obstacle for distributed NUM application to wireless networks. The questions to be answered include if distributed NUM algorithm can converge with inaccurate feedback and how to design effective distributed NUM algorithm for wireless networks. In this paper, we first use the infinitesimal perturbation analysis technique to provide an unbiased gradient estimation on the aggregate rate of traffic sources at the routers based on locally available information. On the basis of that, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm to solve the distributed NUM problem with inaccurate feedback. We then prove that the proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum solution of distributed NUM with perfect feedback under certain conditions. The proposed algorithm is applied to the joint rate and media access control problem for wireless networks. Numerical results demonstrate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.