A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change

We investigate the size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change. This involves examining whether the size results are sensitive to both the number of individual frequencies estimated and the spectral shape adopted under the null hypothesis. The power tests examine whether the test has good power to detect shifts in both spectral position (variance) and spectral shape (autocovariance structure).

Ontogenetic and evolutionary change of external morphology of the neotropical shrimp potimirim (Holthuis, 1954) explained by a molecular phylogeny of the genus

A phylogenetic analysis of a fragment of the mitochondrial gene 16S was used to test the monophyletic status of Potimirim. Existing doubts on the taxonomic status of brasiliana (once P glabra) and P potimirim (once P mexicana) were clarified. Potimirim mexicana and P potimirim are distinct species according to molecular data and appendix masculina morphology. A new species (Potimirim sp. 1) from Puerto Rico was revealed with molecular data, and it is evolutionarily related to P potimirim and P mexicana according to our analysis. We found out three distinct species under the name P glabra. Then, we recommend the application of the name P glabra for the populations of the Pacific slope of Central America and revalidation of P brasiliana for the Brazilian ones. The need for a new name to those "P glabra" of the Caribbean is highlighted, and it was provisionally referred as Potimirim sp. 2. The ontogenetic (juveniles to adults) development of the appendix masculina of P brasiliana was observed and compared to the other species of Potimirim (adults). In the light of our phylogenetic hypothesis, we postulate a pattern of character addition for the evolution of the appendix masculina of Potimirim. This hypothesis is plausible for two key reasons. First. Potimirim is a monophyletic group according to our hypothesis. Second, the shape of appendix masculina found in adults of P. americana is similar and comparable to those found in the earliest juvenile stages of P brasiliana, a derived species according to our phylogeny (P americana, ((P mexicana, Potimirim sp. 1. P potimirim), (P glabra, (brasiliana, Potimirim sp. 2)))). As so, the basal P americana retain the ancestral morphological state of the appendix masculina when compared to the other species of Potimirim. In our interpretation the ontogeny of the appendix masculina recapitulated the proposed phylogeny, giving further support to it.

Citizen science reveals unexpected continental-scale evolutionary change in a model organism

Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis). This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow) was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

MATHEMATICAL STUDIES ON THE EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE OF DNA SEQUENCES

With the aim of understanding the mechanism of molecular evolution, mathematical problems on the evolutionary change of DNA sequences are studied. The problems studied and the results obtained are as follows: (1) Estimation of evolutionary distance between nucleotide sequences. Studying the pattern of nucleotide substitution for the case of unequal substitution rates, a new mathematical formula for estimating the average number of nucleotide substitutions per site between two homologous DNA sequences is developed. It is shown that this formula has a wider applicability than currently available formulae. A statistical method for estimating the number of nucleotide changes due to deletion and insertion is also developed. (2) Biases of the estimates of nucleotide substitutions obtained by the restriction enzyme method. The deviation of the estimate of nucleotide substitutions obtained by the restriction enzyme method from the true value is investigated theoretically. It is shown that the amount of the deviation depends on the nucleotides in the recognition sequence of the restriction enzyme used, unequal rates of substitution among different nucleotides, and nucleotide frequences, but the primary factor is the unequal rates of nucleotide substitution. When many different kinds of enzymes are used, however, the amount of average deviation is generally small. (3) Distribution of restriction fragment lengths. To see the effect of undetectable restriction fragments and fragment differences on the estimate of nucleotide differences, the theoretical distribution of fragment lengths is studied. This distribution depends on the type of restriction enzymes used as well as on the relative frequencies of four nucleotides. It is shown that undetectability of small fragments or fragment differences gives a serious underestimate of nucleotide substitutions when the length-difference method of estimation is used, but the extent of underestimation is small when the site-difference method is used. (4) Evolutionary relationships of DNA sequences in finite populations. A mathematical theory on the expected evolutionary relationships among DNA sequences (nucleons) randomly chosen from the same or different populations is developed under the assumption that the evolutionary change of nucleons is determined solely by mutation and random genetic drift. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author). UMI ^

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

The genetic basis of morphological change in convergent evolution of natural populations: identifying candidate genes behind convergent evolution in blind cavefish astyanax mexicanus

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biology at the Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

Nutritional plasticity and evolutionary divergence in the Drosophila ovary

The environment can modify developmental trajectories and generate a range of distinct phenotypes without altering an organism’s genome, a widespread phenomenon called developmental plasticity. The past decades have seen a resurgent interest in understanding how developmental plasticity contributes to evolutionary processes, as it can produce phenotypic variation among individuals and facilitate diversification among populations that inhabit distinct ecological niches. To better understand the importance of plastic responses for evolutionary change, we need to explore how the environment alters development to produce phenotypic variation and then compare this to how genetic variation influences these same developmental processes.(...)

Evolutionary ecology of learning: insights from fruit flies

Ecologically and evolutionarily oriented research on learning has traditionally been carried out on vertebrates and bees. While less sophisticated than those animals, fruit flies (Drosophila) are capable of several forms of learning, and have an advantage of a short generation time, which makes them an ideal system for experimental evolution studies. This review summarizes the insights into evolutionary questions about learning gained in the last decade from evolutionary experiments on Drosophila. These experiments demonstrate that Drosophila have the genetic potential to evolve substantially improved learning performance in ecologically relevant learning tasks. In at least one set of selected populations the improved learning generalized to another task than that used to impose selection, involving a different behavior, different stimuli, and a different sensory channel for the aversive reinforcement. This improvement in learning ability was associated with reduction in other fitness-related traits, such as larval competitive ability and lifespan, pointing out to evolutionary trade-offs of improved learning. These trade-offs were confirmed by other evolutionary experiments where reduction in learning performance was observed as a correlated response to selection for tolerance to larval nutritional stress or for delayed aging. Such trade-offs could be one reason why fruit flies have not fully used up their evolutionary potential for learning ability. Finally, another evolutionary experiment with Drosophila provided the first direct evidence for the long-standing ideas that learning can under some circumstances accelerate and in other slow down genetically-based evolutionary change. These results demonstrate the usefulness of fruit flies as a model system to address evolutionary questions about learning.

Plastic and evolutionary responses of cell size and number to larval malnutrition in Drosophila melanogaster.

Both development and evolution under chronic malnutrition lead to reduced adult size in Drosophila. We studied the contribution of changes in size vs. number of epidermal cells to plastic and evolutionary reduction of wing size in response to poor larval food. We used flies from six populations selected for tolerance to larval malnutrition and from six unselected control populations, raised either under standard conditions or under larval malnutrition. In the control populations, phenotypic plasticity of wing size was mediated by both cell size and cell number. In contrast, evolutionary change in wing size, which was only observed as a correlated response expressed on standard food, was mediated entirely by reduction in cell number. Plasticity of cell number had been lost in the selected populations, and cell number did not differ between the sexes despite males having smaller wings. Results of this and other experimental evolution studies are consistent with the hypothesis that alleles which increase body size through prolonged growth affect wing size mostly via cell number, whereas alleles which increase size through higher growth rate do so via cell size.

Evolutionary Ecology of Mountain Birch in Subarctic Stress Gradients: Interplay of Biotic and Abiotic Factors in Plant-Plant Interactions and Evolutionary Processes

In nature, variation for example in herbivory, wind exposure, moisture and pollution impact often creates variation in physiological stress and plant productivity. This variation is seldom clear-cut, but rather results in clines of decreasing growth and productivity towards the high-stress end. These clines of unidirectionally changing stress are generally known as ‘stress gradients’. Through its effect on plant performance, stress has the capacity to fundamentally alter the ecological relationships between individuals, and through variation in survival and reproduction it also causes evolutionary change, i.e. local adaptations to stress and eventually speciation. In certain conditions local adaptations to environmental stress have been documented in a matter of just a few generations. In plant-plant interactions, intensities of both negative interactions (competition) and positive ones (facilitation) are expected to vary along stress gradients. The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) suggests that net facilitation will be strongest in conditions of high biotic and abiotic stress, while a more recent ‘humpback’ model predicts strongest net facilitation at intermediate levels of stress. Plant interactions on stress gradients, however, are affected by a multitude of confounding factors, making studies of facilitation-related theories challenging. Among these factors are plant ontogeny, spatial scale, and local adaptation to stress. The last of these has very rarely been included in facilitation studies, despite the potential co-occurrence of local adaptations and changes in net facilitation in stress gradients. Current theory would predict both competitive effects and facilitative responses to be weakest in populations locally adapted to withstand high abiotic stress. This thesis is based on six experiments, conducted both in greenhouses and in the field in Russia, Norway and Finland, with mountain birch (Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii) as the model species. The aims were to study potential local adaptations in multiple stress gradients (both natural and anthropogenic), changes in plant-plant interactions under conditions of varying stress (as predicted by SGH), potential mechanisms behind intraspecific facilitation, and factors confounding plant-plant facilitation, such as spatiotemporal, ontogenetic, and genetic differences. I found rapid evolutionary adaptations (occurring within a time-span of 60 to 70 years) towards heavy-metal resistance around two copper-nickel smelters, a phenomenon that has resulted in a trade-off of decreased performance in pristine conditions. Heavy-metal-adapted individuals had lowered nickel uptake, indicating a possible mechanism behind the detected resistance. Seedlings adapted to heavy-metal toxicity were not co-resistant to others forms of abiotic stress, but showed co-resistance to biotic stress by being consumed to a lesser extent by insect herbivores. Conversely, populations from conditions of high natural stress (wind, drought etc.) showed no local adaptations, despite much longer evolutionary time scales. Due to decreasing emissions, I was unable to test SGH in the pollution gradients. In natural stress gradients, however, plant performance was in accordance with SGH, with the strongest host-seedling facilitation found at the high-stress sites in two different stress gradients. Factors confounding this pattern included (1) plant size / ontogenetic status, with seedling-seedling interactions being competition dominated and host-seedling interactions potentially switching towards competition with seedling growth, and (2) spatial distance, with competition dominating at very short planting distances, and facilitation being strongest at a distance of circa ¼ benefactor height. I found no evidence for changes in facilitation with respect to the evolutionary histories of plant populations. Despite the support for SGH, it may be that the ‘humpback’ model is more relevant when the main stressor is resource-related, while what I studied were the effects of ‘non-resource’ stressors (i.e. heavy-metal pollution and wind). The results have potential practical applications: the utilisation of locally adapted seedlings and plant facilitation may increase the success of future restoration efforts in industrial barrens as well as in other wind-exposed sites. The findings also have implications with regard to the effects of global change in subarctic environments: the documented potential by mountain birch for rapid evolutionary change, together with the general lack of evolutionary ‘dead ends’, due to not (over)specialising to current natural conditions, increase the chances of this crucial forest-forming tree persisting even under the anticipated climate change.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.