An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Designing for grassroots food production : an event-based urban agriculture community

As urbanisation of the global population has increased above 50%, growing food in urban spaces increases in importance, as it can contribute to food security, reduce food miles, and improve people’s physical and mental health. Approaching the task of growing food in urban environments is a mixture of residential growers and groups. Permablitz Brisbane is an event-centric grassroots community that organises daylong ‘working bee’ events, drawing on permaculture design principles in the planning and design process. Permablitz Brisbane provides a useful contrast from other location-centric forms of urban agriculture communities (such as city farms or community gardens), as their aim is to help encourage urban residents to grow their own food. We present findings and design implications from a qualitative study with members of this group, using ethnographic methods to engage with and understand how this group operates. Our findings describe four themes that include opportunities, difficulties, and considerations for the creation of interventions by Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) designers.

Stability and Limit Oscillations of a Control Event-Based Sampling Criterion

This paper investigates the presence of limit oscillations in an adaptive sampling system. The basic sampling criterion operates in the sense that each next sampling occurs when the absolute difference of the signal amplitude with respect to its currently sampled signal equalizes a prescribed threshold amplitude. The sampling criterion is extended involving a prescribed set of amplitudes. The limit oscillations might be interpreted through the equivalence of the adaptive sampling and hold device with a nonlinear one consisting of a relay with multiple hysteresis whose parameterization is, in general, dependent on the initial conditions of the dynamic system. The performed study is performed on the time domain.

TLM2.0 based timing accurate modeling method for complex NoC systems

Scalability and efficiency of on-chip communication of emerging Multiprocessor System-on-Chip (MPSoC) are critical design considerations. Conventional bus based interconnection schemes no longer fit for MPSoC with a large number of cores. Networks-on-Chip (NoC) is widely accepted as the next generation interconnection scheme for large scale MPSoC. The increase of MPSoC complexity requires fast and accurate system-level modeling techniques for rapid modeling and veri-fication of emerging MPSoCs. However, the existing modeling methods are limited in delivering the essentials of timing accuracy and simulation speed. This paper proposes a novel system-level Networks-on-Chip (NoC) modeling method, which is based on SystemC and TLM2.0 and capable of delivering timing accuracy close to cycle accurate modeling techniques at a significantly lower simulation cost. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the proposed method. ©2010 IEEE.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

A petri net based timing model for hardware/software co-design of digital systems

We have recently proposed an extension to Petri nets in order to be able to directly deal with all aspects of embedded digital systems. This extension is meant to be used as an internal model of our co-design environment. After analyzing relevant related work, and presenting a short introduction to our extension as a background material, we describe the details of the timing model we use in our approach, which is mainly based in Merlin's time model. We conclude the paper by discussing an example of its usage. © 2004 IEEE.