Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Influence of polyvascular disease on cardiovascular event rates. Insights from the REACH Registry

Cardiovascular event rates have been shown to increase substantially with the number of symptomatic disease locations. We sought to assess the risk profile, management and subsequent event rates of polyvascular disease patients. Consecutive outpatients were assessed for atherosclerotic risk factors and medications in the REACH Registry. A total of 19,117 symptomatic patients in Europe completed a 2-year follow-up: 77.2% with single arterial bed disease (coronary artery or cerebrovascular or peripheral arterial disease) and 22.8% with polyvascular disease (>/= 1 disease location). Polyvascular disease patients were older (68.5 +/- 9.4 vs 66.3 +/- 9.9 years, p < 0.0001), more often current or former smokers (64.9% vs 58.7%, p < 0.0001), and more often suffered from hypertension (59.5% vs 46.6%, p < 0.0001) and diabetes (34.5% vs 25.9%, p < 0.0001) than single arterial bed disease patients. Despite more intense medical therapy, risk factors (smoking, hypertension, low fasting glucose, and low fasting total cholesterol) were less often controlled in polyvascular disease patients. This was associated with substantially more events over 2 years compared with single arterial bed disease patients (cMACCE [cardiovascular death/non-fatal stroke/non-fatal MI] odds ratio, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.45-1.83], p < 0.0001). In conclusion, polyvascular disease patients have more cardiovascular risk factors, and the prognosis for these patients is significantly worse than for patients with single arterial bed disease. This suggests a need to improve detection and consequent medical treatment of polyvascular disease.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Complication and failure rates in patients treated for chronic periodontitis and restored with single crowns on teeth and/or implants

Objectives: To assess the biological and technical complication rates of single crowns on vital teeth (SC-V), endodontically treated teeth without post and core (SC-E), with a cast post and core (SC-PC) and on implants (SC-I). Material and methods: From 392 patients with chronic periodontitis treated and documented by graduate students during the period from 1978 to 2002, 199 were reexamined during 2005 for this retrospective cohort study, and 64 of these patients were treated with SCs. Statistical analysis included Kaplan–Meier survival functions and event rates per 100 years of object-time. Poisson regression was used to compare the four groups of crowns with respect to the incidence rate ratio of failures, and failures and complications combined over 10 years and the entire observation period. Results: Forty-one (64%) female and 23 (36%) male patients participated in the reexamination. At the time of seating the crowns, the mean patient age was 46.8 (range 24–66.3) years. One hundred and sixty-eight single unit crowns were incorporated. Their mean follow-up time was 11.8 (range 0.8–26.4) years. During the time of observation, 22 biological and 11 technical complications occurred; 19 SC were lost. The chance for SC-V (56) to remain free of any failure or complication was 89.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.1–95.4) after 10 years, 85.8% (95% CI 66–94.5) for SC-E (34), 75.9% for SC-PC (39), (95% CI 58.8–86.7) and 66.2% (95% CI 45.1–80.7) for SC-I (39). Over 10 years, 95% of SC-I remained free of failure and demonstrated a cumulative incidence of failure or complication of 34%. Compared with SC-E, SC-I were 3.5 times more likely to yield failures or complications and SC-PC failed 1.7 times more frequently than did SC-E. SC-V had the lowest rate of failures or complications over the 10 years. Conclusions: While SCs on vital teeth have the best prognosis, those on endodontically treated teeth have a slightly poorer prognosis over 10 years. Crowns on teeth with post and cores and implant-supported SCs displayed the highest incidence of failures and complications.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Building a "brain attack" team to administer thrombolytic therapy for acute ischemic stroke

Before tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) was licensed for use in Canada, in February 1999, the Calgary Regional Stroke Program spearheaded the development and organization of local resources to use thrombolytic therapy in patients who had experienced acute ischemic stroke. In 1996 special permission was obtained from the Calgary Regional Health Authority to use intravenously administered tPA for acute ischemic stroke, and ethical and scientific review boards approved the protocols. After 3 years our efforts have resulted in improved patient outcomes, shorter times from symptom onset to treatment and acceptable adverse event rates. Areas for continued improvement include the door-to-needle time and broader education of the public about the symptoms of acute ischemic stroke.

Unusual charged Higgs boson signals at CERN LEP 2

We have made a detailed study of the signals expected at CERN LEP 2 from charged scalar bosons whose dominant decay channels are into four fermions. The event rates as well as kinematics of the final states are discussed when such scalars are either pair produced or are generated through a tree-level interaction involving a charged scalar, the W, and the Z. The backgrounds in both cases are discussed. We also suggest the possibility of reconstructing the mass of such a scalar at LEP 2.

Identifying Barriers and Practical Solutions to Conducting Site-Based Research in North America: Exploring Acute Heart Failure Trials As a Case Study.

Although the prognosis of ambulatory heart failure (HF) has improved dramatically there have been few advances in the management of acute HF (AHF). Despite regional differences in patient characteristics, background therapy, and event rates, AHF clinical trial enrollment has transitioned from North America and Western Europe to Eastern Europe, South America, and Asia-Pacific where regulatory burden and cost of conducting research may be less prohibitive. It is unclear if the results of clinical trials conducted outside of North America are generalizable to US patient populations. This article uses AHF as a paradigm and identifies barriers and practical solutions to successfully conducting site-based research in North America.

Unfractioned heparin therapy in infants and children

Unfractionated heparin is frequently used in tertiary pediatric centers for the prophylaxis and treatment of thromboembolic disease. Recent evidence suggests that the clinical outcomes of unfractionated heparin therapy in children are poor, as determined by target-range achievement and adverse-event rates. These reports of poor outcomes may be related to an age-dependent mechanism of action of unfractionated heparin. Furthermore, several published studies have indicated that unfractionated heparin–monitoring assays currently in clinical use have significant limitations that likely affect the safety and efficacy of anticoagulant management. This review summarizes the growing body of evidence suggesting that pediatric-specific recommendations for unfractionated heparin therapy management are required to improve clinical outcomes related to this commonly prescribed medication.

Association of European population levels of thrombotic and inflammatory factors with risk of coronary heart disease: the MONICA Optional Haemostasis Study

Aims Classical risk factors do not fully explain international differences in risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We therefore measured thrombotic and inflammatory markers in a substudy of the WHO MONICA project and correlated these with CHD event rates.

Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA Project

Background. The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996). Methods. A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period. Results. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase. Conclusions. It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

Compact cosmic ray detector for unattended atmospheric ionisation monitoring

Two vertical cosmic ray telescopes for atmospheric cosmic ray ionization event detection are compared. Counter A, designed for low power remote use, was deployed in the Welsh mountains; its event rate increased with altitude as expected from atmospheric cosmic ray absorption. Independently, Counter B’s event rate was found to vary with incoming particle acceptance angle. Simultaneous colocated comparison of both telescopes exposed to atmospheric ionization showed a linear relationship between their event rates.

The magnetized steel and scintillator calorimeters of the MINOS experiment

The Main Injector Neutrino Oscillation Search (MINOS) experiment uses an accelerator-produced neutrino beam to perform precision measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters in the ""atmospheric neutrino"" sector associated with muon neutrino disappearance. This long-baseline experiment measures neutrino interactions in Fermilab`s NuMI neutrino beam with a near detector at Fermilab and again 735 km downstream with a far detector in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in northern Minnesota. The two detectors are magnetized steel-scintillator tracking calorimeters. They are designed to be as similar as possible in order to ensure that differences in detector response have minimal impact on the comparisons of event rates, energy spectra and topologies that are essential to MINOS measurements of oscillation parameters. The design, construction, calibration and performance of the far and near detectors are described in this paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.