Classic and new approaches to evaluate risk assessment for public health related to exposure to Halogenated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons present in ludic waters

Risk assessment for public health related to exposure to Halogenated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons present in ludic waters

Incidence, risk factors and estimates of a woman's risk of developing secondary lower limb lymphedema and lymphedema-specific supportive care needs in women treated for endometrial cancer

Objectives: Few studies have assessed the risk and impact of lymphedema among women treated for endometrial cancer. We aimed to quantify cumulative incidence of, and risk factors for developing lymphedema following treatment for endometrial cancer and estimate absolute risk for individuals. Further, we report unmet needs for help with lymphedema-specific issues. Methods: Women treated for endometrial cancer (n = 1243) were followed-up 3–5 years after diagnosis; a subset of 643 completed a follow-up survey that asked about lymphedema and lymphedema-related support needs. We identified a diagnosis of secondary lymphedema from medical records or self-report. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors and estimates. Results: Overall, 13% of women developed lymphedema. Risk varied markedly with the number of lymph nodes removed and, to a lesser extent, receipt of adjuvant radiation or chemotherapy treatment, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (pre-diagnosis). The absolute risk of developing lymphedema was > 50% for women with 15 + nodes removed and 2–3 additional risk factors, 30–41% for those with 15 + nodes removed plus 0–1 risk factors or 6–14 nodes removed plus 3 risk factors, but ≤ 8% for women with no nodes removed or 1–5 nodes but no additional risk factors. Over half (55%) of those who developed lymphedema reported unmet need(s), particularly with lymphedema-related costs and pain. Conclusion: Lymphedema is common; experienced by one in eight women following endometrial cancer. Women who have undergone lymphadenectomy have very high risks of lymphedema and should be informed how to self-monitor for symptoms. Affected women need greater levels of support.

Environmental risk factors for canine toxoplasmosis in a deprived district of Botucatu, SP, Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii that can infect a large variety of animals, including humans. The present study aimed to evaluate the frequency of anti-T. gondii antibodies in dogs from a peripheral district of Botucatu and to establish the association among some epidemiological variables in order to evaluate risk factors for toxoplasmosis infection. Serum samples from dogs were screened using an indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test. Anti-T. gondii antibody prevalence was 56%. The highest titer was 1024 (1.79%) and the most frequent titers were 16 (57.14%) and 64 (33.93%). The chi-square (X-2) test revealed significant association among variables such as dog access to street, ingestion of raw meat and presence of synantropic animals in the domestic environment. These results demonstrate that toxoplasmosis is present in dogs from Jardim Santa Elisa district.

Risk factors for facial melasma in women: a case-control study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors associated with death in Brazilian children with severe dengue: a case-control study

Objective: The purpose of this case-control study was to evaluate risk factors associated with death in children with severe dengue. Methods: The clinical condition of hospitalized patients with severe dengue who died (cases, n = 18) was compared with that of hospitalized patients with severe dengue who survived (controls, n = 77). The inclusion criteria for this study were age under 13 years; hospital admission in São Luis, northeastern Brazil; and laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of dengue. Results: Severe bleeding (hemoptysis), a defining criterion for dengue severity, was the factor most strongly associated with death in our study. We also found that epistaxis and persistent vomiting, both included as warning signs in the World Health Organization (WHO) classification of dengue, were strongly associated with death. No significant association was observed between any of the laboratory findings and death. Conclusions: The finding that epistaxis and persistent vomiting were also associated with death in children with severe dengue was unexpected and deserves to be explored in future studies. Because intensive care units are often limited in resource-poor settings, any information that can help to distinguish patients with severe dengue with a higher risk to progress to death may be crucial.

Risk factors for early dislocation after total hip arthroplasty: a matched case-control study

To evaluate risk factors for early dislocation after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Extracapsular extension but not the tumour burden of lymph node metastases is an independent adverse risk factor in lymph node-positive bladder cancer

To evaluate risk factors in lymph node-positive bladder cancer.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Lameness and foot lesions in Swiss dairy cows: II. Risk factors.

The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors associated with foot lesions and lameness in Swiss dairy cows. Potential risk factors were recorded by means of examination of 1'449 Swiss cows and the management systems of 78 farms during routine claw-trimming, and during personal interviews with the associated farmers. Statistical analysis of animal-based and herd level risk factors were performed using multivariate logistic regression models. The risk of being lame was increased in cows affected by digital dermatitis complex, heel-horn erosion, interdigital hyperplasia, Rusterholz' sole ulcer, deep laceration, double sole and severe hemorrhages. Cleanliness, BCS, affection with other foot lesions, breed, importance of claw health to the farmer, frequency of routine claw-trimming, producing according to the guidelines of the welfare label program RAUS, and silage feeding were shown to be associated with the occurrence of some of the evaluated foot lesions and lameness. The identified risk factors may help to improve management and the situation of lameness and claw health in dairy cows in Switzerland and other alpine areas with similar housing and pasturing systems.

Incidence, etiology and risk factors of neonatal seizures Harris County, Texas, 1992--1994

This study was conducted to determine the incidence and etiology of neonatal seizures, and evaluate risk factors for this condition in Harris County, Texas, between 1992 and 1994. Potential cases were ascertained from four sources: discharge diagnoses at local hospitals, birth certificates, death certificates, and a clinical study of neonatal seizures conducted concurrent with this study at a large tertiary care center in Houston, Texas. The neonatal period was defined as the first 28 days of life for term infants, and up to 44 weeks gestation for preterm infants.^ There were 207 cases of neonatal seizures ascertained among 116,048 live births, yielding and incidence of 1.8 per 1000. Half of the seizures occurred by the third day of life, 70% within the first week, and 93% within the first 28 days of life. Among 48 preterm infants with seizures 15 had their initial seizure after the 28th day of life. About 25% of all seizures occurred after discharge from the hospital of birth.^ Idiopathic seizures occurred most frequently (0.5/1000 births), followed by seizures attributed to perinatal hypoxia/ischemia (0.4/1000 births), intracranial hemorrhage (0.2/1000 births), infection of the central nervous system (0.2/1000 births), and metabolic abnormalities (0.1/1000 births).^ Risk factors were evaluated based on birth certificate information, using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Factors considered included birth weight, gender, ethnicity, place of birth, mother's age, method of delivery, parity, multiple birth and, among term infants, small birth weight for gestational age (SGA). Among preterm infants, very low birth weight (VLBW, $<$1500 grams) was the strongest risk factor, followed by birth in private/university hospitals with a Level III nursery compared with hospitals with a Level II nursery (RR = 2.9), and male sex (RR = 1.8). The effect of very low birth weight varied according to ethnicity. Compared to preterm infants weighing 2000-2999 grams, non-white VLBW infants were 12.0 times as likely to have seizures; whereas white VLBW infants were 2.5 times as likely. Among term infants, significant risk factors included SGA (RR = 1.8), birth in Level III nursery private/university hospitals versus hospitals with Level II nursery (RR = 2.0), and birth by cesarean section (RR = 2.2). ^

Evaluation of risk factors for long term changes in refractive error among adult patients at a Dallas Texas private setting A retrospective chart-review study

Background. Over 39.9% of the adult population forty or older in the United States has refractive error, little is known about the etiology of this condition and associated risk factors and their entailed mechanism due to the paucity of data regarding the changes of refractive error for the adult population over time.^ Aim. To evaluate risk factors over a long term, 5-year period, in refractive error changes among persons 43 or older by testing the hypothesis that age, gender, systemic diseases, nuclear sclerosis and baseline refractive errors are all significantly associated with refractive errors changes in patients at a Dallas, Texas private optometric office.^ Methods. A retrospective chart review of subjective refraction, eye health, and self-report health history was done on patients at a private optometric office who were 43 or older in 2000 who had eye examinations both in 2000 and 2005. Aphakic and pseudophakic eyes were excluded as well as eyes with best corrected Snellen visual acuity of 20/40 and worse. After exclusions, refraction was obtained on 114 right eyes and 114 left eyes. Spherical equivalent (sum of sphere + ½ cylinder) was used as the measure of refractive error.^ Results. Similar changes in refractive error were observed for the two eyes. The 5-year change in spherical power was in a hyperopic direction for younger age groups and in a myopic direction for older subjects, P<0.0001. The gender-adjusted mean change in refractive error in right eyes of persons aged 43 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, and 75 or older at baseline was +0.43D, +0.46 D, -0.09 D, and -0.23D, respectively. Refractive change was strongly related to baseline nuclear cataract severity; grades 4 to 5 were associated with a myopic shift (-0.38 D, P< 0.0001). The mean age-adjusted change in refraction was +0.27 D for hyperopic eyes, +0.56 D for emmetropic eyes, and +0.26 D for myopic eyes.^ Conclusions. This report has documented refractive error changes in an older population and confirmed reported trends of a hyperopic shift before age 65 and a myopic shift thereafter associated with the development of nuclear cataract.^

Evaluating the Risk in Selection Problems

The procedure used should guarantee that the risk of decision asserted from the observations is at most some specified value P*.

Novel vaccine acceptance in emerging infectious diseases: a case study of Hendra virus vaccine uptake in Australia

Background: The development of a horse vaccine against Hendra virus has been hailed as a good example of a One Health approach to the control of human disease. Although there is little doubt that this is true, it is clear from the underwhelming uptake of the vaccine by horse owners to date (approximately 10%) that realisation of a One Health approach requires more than just a scientific solution. As emerging infectious diseases may often be linked to the development and implementation of novel vaccines this presentation will discuss factors influencing their uptake; using Hendra virus in Australia as a case study. Methods: This presentation will draw on data collected from the Horse owners and Hendra virus: A Longitudinal cohort study To Evaluate Risk (HHALTER) study. The HHALTER study is a mixed methods research study comprising a two-year survey-based longitudinal cohort study and qualitative interview study with horse owners in Australia. The HHALTER study has investigated and tracked changes in a broad range of issues around early uptake of vaccination, horse owner uptake of other recommended disease risk mitigation strategies, and attitudes to government policy and disease response. Interviews provide further insights into attitudes towards risk and decision-making in relation to vaccine uptake. A combination of quantitative and qualitative data analysis will be reported. Results: Data collected from more than 1100 horse owners shortly after vaccine introduction indicated that vaccine uptake and intention to vaccinate was associated with a number of risk perception factors and financial cost factors. In addition, concerns about side effects and veterinarians refusing to treat unvaccinated horses were linked to uptake. Across the study period vaccine uptake in the study cohort increased to more than 50%, however, concerns around side effects, equine performance and breeding impacts, delays to full vaccine approvals, and attempts to mandate vaccination by horse associations and event organisers have all impacted acceptance. Conclusion: Despite being provided with a safe and effective vaccine for Hendra virus that can protect horses and break the transmission cycle of the virus to humans, Australian horse owners have been reluctant to commit to it. General issues pertinent to novel vaccines, combined with challenges in the implementation of the vaccine have led to issues of mistrust and misconception with some horse owners. Moreover, factors such as cost, booster dose schedules, complexities around perceived risk, and ulterior motives attributed to veterinarians have only served to polarise attitudes to vaccine acceptance.

Controle da Hanseníase: Detecção precoce através do exame de contatos e avaliação do tratamento dos pacientes submetidos a 12 doses de poliquimioterapia (PQT/OMS)

O diagnóstico precoce e o tratamento são imprescindíveis para o controle da hanseníase, pois visam eliminar o mais precocemente possível as fontes de transmissão. O principal critério de cura da doença é o tempo de tratamento, relacionado às doses fixas da poliquimioterapia. O tempo de tratamento dos pacientes multibacilares foi reduzido de 24 para 12 doses em até 18 meses em 1998. Os objetivos desta tese foram: avaliar a detecção de casos de hanseníase entre os contatos dos pacientes e avaliar fatores de risco associados à piora das incapacidades físicas nos pacientes após a alta do tratamento poliquimioterápico com as 12 doses mensais. Dois artigos foram elaborados. O primeiro artigo avaliou características dos pacientes com hanseníase e de seus contatos associadas ao risco de adoecimento entre os contatos. O segundo artigo avaliou fatores de risco relacionados à piora das incapacidades físicas dos pacientes com hanseníase multibacilar, submetidos ao tratamento com 12 doses fixas da poliquimioterapia. Os resultados mostraram que o risco para hanseníase, relacionado aos contatos foi o tipo de convivência com o caso índice. Entre os fatores dos casos índices, a carga bacilar foi o único associado ao adoecimento dos contatos. Além desses fatores, os contatos que apresentam relação de consangüinidade com o caso índice e os contatos dos pacientes com menor nível de escolaridade mostraram maior chance de se apresentarem doentes no momento do diagnóstico do caso índice. A cicatriz BGC e a vacina recebida após o diagnóstico do caso índice contribuíram independentemente como fatores de proteção. A neuropatia piorou em 40% dos pacientes durante o período de 10 anos após a alta do tratamento. Esta piora foi associada à presença de incapacidades físicas e ao número de lesões cutâneas no momento do diagnóstico assim como à presença de neurite durante o acompanhamento.

Epidemiologia das infecções causadas por Staphylococcus aureus resistente a meticilina com perfil comunitário (CA-MRSA) em pacientes atendidos em um hospital terciário no Rio de Janeiro

O Staphylococcus aureus resistente a meticilina (MRSA) foi inicialmente descrito como um patógeno associado a infecções relacionadas à assistência em saúde; porém, um clone de MRSA, o CA-MRSA emergiu na comunidade e está atualmente incrementando nos hospitais. O objetivo desta tese foi descrever aspectos relacionados com a epidemiologia das infecções por cepas CA-MRSA no Hospital Universitário Pedro Ernesto da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (HUPE/UERJ), avaliando especificamente fatores de risco relacionado com as infecções por CA-MRSA. Usando informações das bases de dados do laboratório de microbiologia, da farmácia e da Comissão para Controle da Infecção Hospitalar do HUPE/UERJ foi realizado um estudo retrospectivo de infecções/colonizações por cepas de S. aureus (fevereiro 2005 a Julho 2011). Foi realizado um estudo caso e controle, utilizando como casos os pacientes com infecções por cepas CA-MRSA. Na avaliação da susceptibilidade aos antimicrobianos usados em infecções graves por MRSA (vancomicina, teicoplanina, daptomicina e linezolida), foram determinadas as concentrações inibitórias mínimas (CIM) das amostras por diferentes metodologias (testes de difusão em agar, microdiluição em caldo e E-test). Nas analises das tendências temporais da apresentação dos subtipos de MRSA, usando um critério fenotípico para classificação das cepas MRSA, foi observada uma diminuição do número de cepas de MRSA multirresistente (HA-MRSA) (p<0.05). Também foi observada uma tendência ao aumento de cepas não-multirresistentes (CA-MRSA), mas sem alcançar a significância estatística (p = 0.06) igual que os S. aureus sensíveis a meticilina (MSSA) (p = 0.48). Não houve associação entre o subtipo de MRSA e a mortalidade devida à infecção por cepas MRSA. Uma idade acima de 70 anos (OR: 2.46, IC95%: 0.99 - 6.11), a presença de pneumonia adquirida no hospital (OR: 4.94, IC95%: 1.65 -14.8), a doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (OR: 6.09, IC95% 1.16 31.98) e a leucemia (OR: 8.2, IC95%: 1.25 54.7) foram fatores de risco associadas à mortalidade nas infecções por cepas de S. aureus. Usando curvas de Kaplan-Meier, foi observada uma tendência ao aumento da mortalidade em infecções causadas por MSSA na primeira semana, porém sem alcançar significância estatística (p = 0.07). Não foram observadas amostras MRSA com susceptibilidade intermediaria a vancomicina, linezolida, daptomicina ou teicoplanina. A dinâmica das infecções por S. aureus no HUPE/UERJ mudou durante o período de estudo, com menor número de episódios infecciosos causados por cepas de MRSA multirresistentes. Existe uma tendência ao aumento das cepas não-multirresistentes de MRSA entanto que a taxa de infecções por MSSA permaneceu estável no período do estudo. O perfil de resistência dos estafilococos não teve associação com a mortalidade