Capacidad predictiva del euroscore II en una cohorte de pacientes de cirugía cardiovascular en una institución de cuarto nivel de Bogotá

El EuroSCORE II es una de las escalas más empleadas como predictor de riesgo de mortalidad en los servicios de cirugía cardiovascular. Esta ha sido validada en diferentes hospitales alrededor del mundo demostrando una adecuada capacidad de discriminación. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar el valor predictivo de la escala de riesgo EuroSCORE II en los pacientes sometidos a Cirugía Cardiovascular en una institución de cuarto nivel de Bogotá. Metodología: Estudio de prueba diagnóstica observacional y retrospectivo de la cohorte de pacientes en una institución de cuarto nivel durante los años 2012 a 2014. Se realizó el cálculo del EuroSCORE II para cada paciente, comparando la mortalidad predicha versus la observada, de forma global y por grupo de riesgo. Resultados: Del total de la población que tuvo intervención cardiaca mayor en una institución de cuarto nivel en la cohorte estudiada se presentaron 58 casos de muerte en los treinta días posteriores a la intervención, que corresponde al 7,46%. La mortalidad esperada calculada con el EuroSCORE II fue del 9,26%, lo cual indica un buen poder de predicción para esta población. Por otro lado, la curva ROC evidencia con un valor de 0.757 del área bajo la curva, que el modelo El EuroSCORE II es un buen modelo predictivo con un adecuado valor de discriminación. Se evidenció que las variables estado crítico preoperatorio y función del ventrículo izquierdo tienen mayor peso estadístico en nuestra población objeto, con una significancia del 0,001, seguido de infarto agudo de miocardio, sexo y peso de la intervención con una significancia del 0,01. Adicionalmente, el Euroscore II tiene mejor valor predictivo cuando se realiza un solo procedimiento o revascularización, en comparación a cuando se realiza procedimientos mixtos. Se recomienda realizar un estudio multicéntrico donde se incluyan pacientes con diferentes características demográficas

Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP

Objective: To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of Sao Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). Methods:A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests. Results: There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0396), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). Conclusion: In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Valve surgery in active infective endocarditis: a simple score to predict in-hospital prognosis

Aims Surgery for infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with high mortality. Our objectives were to describe the experience with surgical treatment for IE in Spain, and to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Methods Prospective cohort of 1000 consecutive patients with IE. Data were collected in 26 Spanish hospitals. Results Surgery was performed in 437 patients (43.7%). Patients treated with surgery were younger and predominantly male. They presented fewer comorbid conditions and more often had negative blood cultures and heart failure. In-hospital mortality after surgery was lower than in the medical therapy group (24.3 vs 30.7%, p = 0.02). In patients treated with surgery, endocarditis involved a native valve in 267 patients (61.1%), a prosthetic valve in 122 (27.9%), and a pacemaker lead with no clear further valve involvement in 48 (11.0%). The most common aetiologies were Staphylococcus (186, 42.6%), Streptococcus (97, 22.2%), and Enterococcus (49, 11.2%). The main indications for surgery were heart failure and severe valve regurgitation. A risk score for in-hospital mortality was developed using 7 prognostic variables with a similar predictive value (OR between 1.7 and 2.3): PALSUSE: prosthetic valve, age ≥ 70, large intracardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, urgent surgery, sex [female], EuroSCORE ≥ 10. In-hospital mortality ranged from 0% in patients with a PALSUSE score of 0 to 45.4% in patients with PALSUSE score > 3. Conclusions The prognosis of IE surgery is highly variable. The PALSUSE score could help to identify patients with higher in-hospital mortality.

Primary isolated aortic valve surgery in octogenarians.

We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI): state of the art techniques and future perspectives.

Transcatheter aortic valve therapies are the newest established techniques for the treatment of high risk patients affected by severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis. The transapical approach requires a left anterolateral mini-thoracotomy, whereas the transfemoral method requires an adequate peripheral vascular access and can be performed fully percutaneously. Alternatively, the trans-subclavian access has been recently proposed as a third promising approach. Depending on the technique, the fine stent-valve positioning can be performed with or without contrast injections. The transapical echo-guided stent-valve implantation without angiography (the Lausanne technique) relies entirely on transoesophageal echocardiogramme imaging for the fine stent-valve positioning and it has been proved that this technique prevents the onset of postoperative contrast-related acute kidney failure. Recent published reports have shown good hospital outcomes and short-term results after transcatheter aortic valve implantation, but there are no proven advantages in using the transfemoral or the transapical technique. In particular, the transapical series have a higher mean logistic Euroscore of 27-35%, a procedural success rate above 95% and a mean 30-day mortality between 7.5 and 17.5%, whereas the transfemoral results show a lower logistic Euroscore of 23-25.5%, a procedural success rate above 90% and a 30-day mortality of 7-10.8%. Nevertheless, further clinical trials and long-term results are mandatory to confirm this positive trend. Future perspectives in transcatheter aortic valve therapies would be the development of intravascular devices for the ablation of the diseased valve leaflets and the launch of new stent-valves with improved haemodynamic, different sizes and smaller delivery systems.

Comparison of clinical and angiographic prognostic risk scores in elderly patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome and referred for percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

Predictores de cambio en la función ventricular izquierda posterior a implante valvular aórtico transcateter comparado con reemplazo valvular aórtico quirúrgico en el hospital universitario fundación Cardioinfantil instituto de cardiología – Bogotá

Objetivos: Identificar predictores de recuperación de la función ventricular izquierda y comparar los hallazgos ecocardiográficos en pacientes con estenosis aórtica crítica sometidos a reemplazo quirúrgico de la válvula aórtica (RVA) o implantación de válvula aórtica transcatéter (TAVI). Métodos: Cuarenta y cuatro pacientes tratados con RVA se compararon con 34 pacientes con TAVI, los datos ecocardiográficos fueron retrospectivamente obtenidos antes de la intervención y previo al alta. Resultados: Se analizaron retrospectivamente pacientes tratados en la FCI - IC desde 2009 - 2015 (n = 78 pacientes, con una media de edad 70,29 ± 11,63, EuroSCORE logístico 3,75 (3-8,55) en RVA y 20,4 (15 , 47-23,32) en TAVI. Ambos grupos mostraron una disminución en los gradientes de la válvula aórtica, más en pacientes de TAVI, con un gradiente transaórtico pico (24,5 vs 18,5, p = 0,001) y medio (14 vs 10, p = 0,002) En comparación con RVA, TAVI presentó un mayor número de pacientes con insuficiencia aórtica paravalvular (47,1% frente a 2,3% p = 0.000). En total, el 61,5% presentó mejoría precoz de la función ventricular, el predictor en severo compromiso de la función del ventrículo izquierdo fue un alto índice de masa ventricular izquierda. Conclusiones: La implantación transcatéter de válvula aórtica es una alternativa al reemplazo quirúrgico de la válvula aórtica en pacientes con estenosis aórtica y alto riesgo quirúrgico. La recuperación postoperatoria precoz de la función ventricular izquierda en pacientes con severo compromiso de la función ventricular estuvo asociada a alto índice de masa ventricular izquierda.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation with a self-expanding nitinol bioprosthesis: Prediction of the Need for Permanent Pacemaker Using Simple Baseline and Procedural Characteristics

Objective: To ascertain incidence and predictors of new permanent pacemaker (PPM) following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with the self-expanding aortic bioprosthesis. Background: TAVI with the Medtronic Corevalve (MCV) Revalving System (Medtronic, Minneapolis, MN) has been associated with important post-procedural conduction abnormalities and frequent need for PPM. Methods: Overall, 73 consecutive patients with severe symptomatic AS underwent TAVI with the MCV at two institutions; 10 patients with previous pacemaker and 3 patients with previous aortic valve replacement were excluded for this analysis. Clinical, echocardiographic, and procedural data were collected prospectively in a dedicated database. A standard 12-lead ECG was recorded in all patients at baseline, after the procedure and predischarge. Decision to implant PPM was taken according to current guidelines. Logistic multivariable modeling was applied to identify independent predictors of PPM at discharge. Results: Patients exhibited high-risk features as evidenced by advanced age (mean = 82.1 +/- 6.2 years) and high surgical scores (logistic EuroSCORE 23.0 +/- 12.8%, STS score 9.4 +/- 6.9%). The incidence of new PPM was 28.3%. Interventricular septum thickness and logistic Euroscore were the baseline independent predictors of PPM. When procedural variables were included, the independent predictors of PPM were interventricular septum thickness (OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.320.85) and the distance between noncoronary cusp and the distal edge of the prosthesis (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.031.83). Conclusions: Conduction abnormalities are frequently observed after TAVI with self-expandable bioprosthesis and definitive pacing is required in about a third of the patients, with a clear association with depth of implant and small interventricular septum thickness. (c) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Previous Percutaneous Coronary Intervention as Risk Factor for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has increased as the initial revascularization strategy in chronic coronary artery disease. Consequently, more patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have history of coronary stent. Objective: Evaluate the impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality after CABG in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. Methods: Between May/2007 and June/2009, 1099 consecutive patients underwent CABG on cardiopulmonary bypass. Patients with no PCI (n=938, 85.3%) were compared with patients with previous PCI (n=161, 14.6%). Logistic regression models and propensity score matching analysis were used to assess the risk-adjusted impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality. Results: Both groups were similar, except for the fact that patients with previous PCI were more likely to have unstable angina (16.1% x 9.9%, p=0.019). In-hospital mortality after CABG was higher in patients with previous PCI (9.3% x 5.1%, p=0.034) and it was comparable with EuroSCORE and 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet risk score. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, previous PCI emerged as an independent predictor of postoperative in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI 1.02-3.68, p=0.044) as strong as diabetes (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.24, p=0.028). After computed propensity score matching based on preoperative risk factors, in-hospital mortality remained higher among patients with previous PCI (odds ratio 3.46, 95% CI 1.10-10.93, p=0.034). Conclusions: Previous PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality after CABG. This fact must be considered when PCI is indicated as initial alternative in patients with more severe coronary artery disease. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(1):586-595)

Fatores de risco pré-operatórios para mediastinite após cirurgia cardíaca: análise de 2768 pacientes

INTRODUÇÃO: A esternotomia mediana longitudinal é a via de acesso mais utilizada no tratamento das doenças cardíacas. As infecções profundas da ferida operatória no pós-operatório das cirurgias cardiovasculares são uma complicação séria, com alto custo durante o tratamento. Diferentes estudos têm encontrado fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite e as variáveis pré-operatórias têm tido especial destaque. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é identificar fatores de risco pré-operatórios para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite em pacientes submetidos a revascularização do miocárdio e a substituição valvar. MÉTODOS: Este estudo observacional representa uma coorte de 2768 pacientes operados consecutivamente. O período considerado para análise foi de maio de 2007 a maio de 2009 e não houve critérios de exclusão. Foi realizada análise univariada e multivariada pelo modelo de regressão logística das 38 variáveis pré-operatórias eleitas. RESULTADOS: Nesta série, 35 (1,3%) pacientes evoluíram com mediastinite e 19 (0,7%) com osteomielite associada. A idade média dos pacientes foi de 59,9 ± 13,5 anos e o EuroSCORE de 4,5 ± 3,6. A mortalidade hospitalar foi de 42,8%. Na análise multivariada, foram identificadas três variáveis como preditoras independentes de mediastinite: balão intra-aórtico (OR 5,41, 95% IC [1,83 -16,01], P=0,002), hemodiálise (OR 4,87, 95% IC [1,41 - 16,86], P=0,012) e intervenção vascular extracardíaca (OR 4,39, 95% IC [1,64 - 11,76], P=0,003). CONCLUSÃO: O presente estudo demonstrou que necessidade do suporte hemodinâmico pré-operatório com balão intra-aórtico, hemodiálise e intervenção vascular extracardíaca são fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite após cirurgia cardíaca.

Blood transfusion in cardiac surgery is a risk factor for increased hospital length of stay in adult patients

Abstract Background Allogeneic red blood cell (RBC) transfusion has been proposed as a negative indicator of quality in cardiac surgery. Hospital length of stay (LOS) may be a surrogate of poor outcome in transfused patients. Methods Data from 502 patients included in Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study were analyzed to assess the relationship between RBC transfusion and hospital LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and enrolled in the TRACS study. Results According to the status of RBC transfusion, patients were categorized into the following three groups: 1) 199 patients (40%) who did not receive RBC, 2) 241 patients (48%) who received 3 RBC units or fewer (low transfusion requirement group), and 3) 62 patients (12%) who received more than 3 RBC units (high transfusion requirement group). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, the following factors were predictive of a prolonged hospital length of stay: age higher than 65 years, EuroSCORE, valvular surgery, combined procedure, LVEF lower than 40% and RBC transfusion of > 3 units. Conclusion RBC transfusion is an independent risk factor for increased LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This finding highlights the adequacy of a restrictive transfusion therapy in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: http://NCT01021631.

Intervenção Coronariana Percutânea prévia como fator de risco para Revascularização Miocárdica

FUNDAMENTO: A Intervenção Coronariana Percutânea (ICP) vem aumentando na doença arterial coronariana crônica. Consequentemente, cada vez mais pacientes submetidos a Cirurgia de Revascularização Miocárdica (CRM) apresentam stent coronariano. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a influência do antecedente de stent coronariano na mortalidade hospitalar após CRM. MÉTODOS: Análise prospectiva com 1.099 pacientes consecutivos submetidos a CRM com circulação extracorpórea, entre maio/2007 e junho/2009. Pacientes sem ICP prévia (n = 938; 85,3%) foram comparados com pacientes com ICP prévia (n = 161; 14,6%), utilizando modelos de regressão logística e análise de pareamento de amostras. RESULTADOS: Ambos os grupos apresentavam semelhança em relação aos fatores de risco, exceto pela maior presença de pacientes com angina instável no grupo com ICP prévia (16,1% vs. 9,9%; p = 0,019). A mortalidade hospitalar após CRM foi maior entre os pacientes com ICP prévia (9,3% vs. 5,1%, p = 0,034), e foi semelhante à esperada em relação ao EuroSCORE e ao 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet score. Na análise com regressão logística multivariada a ICP prévia emergiu como fator de risco independente para mortalidade hospitalar pós-operatória (odds ratio 1,94; IC 95% 1,02-3,68; p = 0,044) tão forte quanto diabetes (odds ratio 1,86; IC 95% 1,07-3,24; p = 0,028). Após o pareamento dos grupos, a mortalidade hospitalar continuou sendo maior entre os pacientes com ICP prévia, com odds ratio 3,46 ; IC 95% 1,10-10,93; p = 0,034. CONCLUSÃO: A ICP prévia em pacientes com doença coronariana multiarterial é fator de risco independente para mortalidade hospitalar após CRM. Tal fato deve ser considerado quando a ICP for indicada como alternativa inicial em pacientes com doença arterial coronariana mais avançada. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2012; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)