Fuel ethanol price drivers in the Atlantic basin : Brazil & the U.S. traders perspectives

Como a oportunidade de exportação de etanol combustível é muito recente, o agronegócio carece de literatura para formação de gestores e estrategistas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever o mecanismo de formação de preços de etanol tanto no Brasil como nos Estados Unidos da America. Decupei as variáveis que impactam na formação de preços, custo de produção de etanol de cana-de-açúcar, custo da logística e desidratação no Caribe, custo do etanol de milho e fiz algumas análises de cenários de formação de preços das principais variáveis e consegui organizar este conhecimento em um gráfico que contém no eixo superior preço do etanol hidratado na usina no Brasil e no eixo inferior o preço do bushel de milho em Chicago cujas interceções nas retas da taxa do dólar e do preço do gás natural, fornecem no eixo Y o preço do produto no porto de Nova York, ficando uma visualização simples das possibilidades da janela de exportação. A metodologia permite assumir diferentes cenários de oferta, demanda e preços e estabelecer diferentes estratégias de comercialização.

An Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, November 2006

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country’s vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Competitiveness of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol compared to US corn ethanol

Corn ethanol produced in the US and sugarcane ethanol produced in Brazil are the world`s leading sources of biofuel. Current US biofuel policies create both incentives and constraints for the import of ethanol from Brazil and together with the cost competitiveness and greenhouse gas intensity of sugarcane ethanol compared to corn ethanol will determine the extent of these imports. This study analyzes the supply-side determinants of cost competitiveness and compares the greenhouse gas intensity of corn ethanol and sugarcane ethanol delivered to US ports. We find that while the cost of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil is lower than that of corn ethanol in the US, the inclusion of transportation costs for the former and co-product credits for the latter changes their relative competitiveness. We also find that the relative cost of ethanol in the US and Brazil is highly sensitive to the prevailing exchange rate and prices of feedstocks. At an exchange rate of US$1=R$2.15 the cost of corn ethanol is 15% lower than the delivered cost of sugarcane ethanol at a US port. Sugarcane ethanol has lower GHG emissions than corn ethanol but a price of over $113 per ton of CO(2) is needed to affect competitiveness. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Economical analysis of ethanol steam reformer for hydrogen production associated with a sugarcane industry

An expressive amount of produced hydrogen is generated by customers in-situ such as petrochemical, fertilizer and sugarcane industries. However, the most utilized feedstock is natural gas, a non-renewable and fossil fuel. The introduction of biohydrogen production process associated in a sugarcane industry is an alternative to diminish emissions and contribute to create a CO2 cycle, where the plants capture this gas by photosynthesis process and produces sucrose for ethanol production. The cost of production of ethanol has dramatically decreased (from about US$ 700/m3 in 1970s to US$ 200/m3 today), becoming this a good option at near term, inclusively for its utilization by customers localized in main regions (localized especially in regions such as Southeastern Brazil) Also in near future, it will possible the utilization of fuel cells as form of distributed generation. Its utilization could occur specially in peak hours, diminishing the cost of investments in newer transmission systems. A technical and economic analysis of steam reformer of ethanol to hydrogen production associated with sugarcane industry was recently performed. This technique will also allow the use of ethanol when its price is relatively low. This study was based on a previous R&D study (sponsored by CEMIG - State of Minas Gerais Electricity Company) where thermodynamic and economic analyses were developed, based in the development of two ethanol steam reformers prototypes.x In this study an analysis was performed considering the use of bagasse as source of heat in the steam reforming process. Its use could to diminish the costs of hydrogen production, especially at large scale, obtaining cost-competitive production and permitting that sugarcane industry produces hydrogen in large scale beyond ethylic alcohol, anhydrous alcohol (or ethanol) and sugar.

In-situ DRIFT/MS study of the conversion of ethanol on mixed Mg/Si oxides

Due to the high price of natural oil and harmful effects of its usage, as the increase in emission of greenhouse gases, the industry focused in searching of sustainable types of the raw materials for production of chemicals. Ethanol, produced by fermentation of sugars, is one of the more interesting renewable materials for chemical manufacturing. There are numerous applications for the conversion of ethanol into commodity chemicals. In particular, the production of 1,3-butadiene whose primary source is ethanol using multifunctional catalysts is attractive. With the 25% of world rubber manufacturers utilizing 1,3-butadiene, there is an exigent need for its sustainable production. In this research, the conversion of ethanol in one-step process to 1,3-butadiene was studied. According to the literature, the mechanisms which were proposed to explain the way ethanol transforms into butadiene require to have both acid and basic sites. But still, there are a lot of debate on this topic. Thus, the aim of this research work is a better understanding of the reaction pathways with all the possible intermediates and products which lead to the formation of butadiene from ethanol. The particular interests represent the catalysts, based on different ratio Mg/Si in comparison to bare magnesia and silica oxides, in order to identify a good combination of acid/basic sites for the adsorption and conversion of ethanol. Usage of spectroscopictechniques are important to extract information that could be helpful for understanding the processes on the molecular level. The diffuse reflectance infrared spectroscopy coupled to mass spectrometry (DRIFT-MS) was used to study the surface composition of the catalysts during the adsorption of ethanol and its transformation during the temperature program. Whereas, mass spectrometry was used to monitor the desorbed products. The set of studied materials include MgO, Mg/Si=0.1, Mg/Si=2, Mg/Si=3, Mg/Si=9 and SiO2 which were also characterized by means of surface area measurements.

Numerical investigation of effects of addition of ethanol to gasoline on Laminar Flame Speed (LFS), autoignition, and wall quenching

Since the advent of automobiles, alcohol has been considered a possible engine fuel1,2. With the recent increased concern about the high price of crude oil due to fluctuating supply and demand and environmental issues, interest in alcohol based fuels has increased2,3. However, using pure alcohols or blends with conventional fuels in high percentages requires changes to the engine and fuel system design2. This leads to the need for a simple and accurate conventional fuels-alcohol blends combustion models that can be used in developing parametric burn rate and knock combustion models for designing more efficient Spark Ignited (SI) engines. To contribute to this understanding, numerical simulations were performed to obtain detailed characteristics of Gasoline-Ethanol blends with respect to Laminar Flame Speed (LFS), autoignition and Flame-Wall interactions. The one-dimensional premixed flame code CHEMKIN® was applied to simulate the burning velocity and autoignition characteristics using the freely propagating model and closed homogeneous reactor model respectively. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to obtain detailed flow, temperature, and species fields for Flame-wall interactions. A semi-detailed validated chemical kinetic model for a gasoline surrogate fuel developed by Andrae and Head4 was used for the study of LFS and Autoignition. For the quenching study, a skeletal chemical kinetic mechanism of gasoline surrogate, having 50 species and 174 reactions was used. The surrogate fuel was defined as a mixture of pure n-heptane, isooctane, and toluene. For LFS study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied from 0 to 85%, initial pressure from 4 to 8 bar, initial temperature from 300 to 900K, and dilution from 0 to 32%. Whereas for Autoignition study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied between 0 to 85%, initial pressure was varied between 20 to 60 bar, initial temperature was varied between 800 to 1200K, and the dilution was varied between 0 to 32% at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 to represent the in-cylinder conditions of a SI engine. For quenching study three Ethanol blends, namely E0, E25 and E85 are described in detail at an initial pressure of 8 atm and 17 atm. Initial wall temperature was taken to be 400 K. Quenching thicknesses and heat fluxes to the wall were computed. The laminar flame speed was found to increase with ethanol concentration and temperature but decrease with pressure and dilution. The autoignition time was found to increase with ethanol concentration at lower temperatures but was found to decrease marginally at higher temperatures. The autoignition time was also found to decrease with pressure and equivalence ratio but increase with dilution. The average quenching thickness was found to decrease with an increase in Ethanol concentration in the blend. Heat flux to the wall increased with increase in ethanol percentage in the blend and at higher initial pressures. Whereas the wall heat flux decreased with an increase in dilution. Unburned Hydrocarbon (UHC) and CO % was also found to decrease with ethanol concentration in the blend.

Testosterone Therapy Differently Regulates The Anti- And Pro-inflammatory Cytokines In The Plasma And Prostate Of Rats Submitted To Chronic Ethanol Consumption (uchb).

Ethanol consumption damages the prostate, and testosterone is known by anti-inflammatory role. The cytokines were investigated in the plasma and ventral prostate of UChB rats submitted or not to testosterone therapy by ELISA and Western blot, respectively. Additionally, inflammatory foci and mast cells were identified in the ventral prostate slides stained by hematoxylin and eosin and toluidine blue, respectively. Inflammatory foci were found in the ethanol-treated animals and absent after testosterone therapy. Plasma levels of IL-6 and IL-10 were not changed while TNFα and TFG-β1 were increased in the animals submitted testosterone therapy. Regarding to ventral prostate, IL-6 did not alter, while IL-10, TNFα, and TFG-β1 were increased after testosterone therapy. Ethanol increases NFR2 in addition to high number of intact and degranulated mast cell which were reduced after testosterone therapy. So, ethanol and testosterone differentially modulates the cytokines in the plasma and prostate.

Influence Of Substrate Steps On The Catalytic Properties Of Pt Layers: The Ethanol Electrooxidation Reaction.

The ethanol oxidation reaction (EOR) is investigated on Pt/Au(hkl) electrodes. The Au(hkl) single crystals used belong to the [n(111)x(110)] family of planes. Pt is deposited following the galvanic exchange of a previously deposited Cu monolayer using a Pt(2+) solution. Deposition is not epitaxial and the defects on the underlying Au(hkl) substrates are partially transferred to the Pt films. Moreover, an additional (100)-step-like defect is formed, probably as a result of the strain resulting from the Pt and Au lattice mismatch. Regarding the EOR, both vicinal Pt/Au(hkl) surfaces exhibit a behavior that differs from that expected for stepped Pt; for instance, the smaller the step density on the underlying Au substrate, the greater the ability to break the CC bond in the ethanol molecule, as determined by in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy measurements. Also, we found that the acetic acid production is favored as the terrace width decreases, thus reflecting the inefficiency of the surface array to cleave the ethanol molecule.

Long-term Prospects For The Environmental Profile Of Advanced Sugar Cane Ethanol.

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Ethanol Modulates The Synthesis And Catabolism Of Retinoic Acid In The Rat Prostate.

All-trans retinoic acid (atRA) maintains physiological stability of the prostate, and we reported that ethanol intake increases atRA in the rat prostate; however the mechanisms underlying these changes are unknown. We evaluated the impact of a low- and high-dose ethanol intake (UChA and UChB strains) on atRA metabolism in the dorsal and lateral prostate. Aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) subtype 1A3 was increased in the dorsal prostate of UChA animals while ALDH1A1 and ALDH1A2 decreased in the lateral prostate. In UChB animals, ALDH1A1, ALDH1A2, and ALDH1A3 increased in the dorsal prostate, and ALDH1A3 decreased in the lateral prostate. atRA levels increased with the low activity of CYP2E1 and decreased with high CYP26 activity in the UChB dorsal prostate. Conversely, atRA was found to decrease when the activity of total CYP was increased in the UChA lateral prostate. Ethanol modulates the synthesis and catabolism of atRA in the prostate in a concentration-dependent manner.

Androgen Therapy Reverses Injuries Caused By Ethanol Consumption In The Prostate: Testosterone As A Possible Target To Ethanol-related Disorders.

Chronic ethanol consumption leads to reproductive damages, since it can act directly in the tissues or indirectly, causing a hormonal imbalance. Prostate is a hormone-dependent gland and, consequently, susceptible to ethanol. The potential of testosterone therapy in the ethanol-related disorders was investigated in the prostate microenvironment. UChB rats aged 90 days were divided into 2 experimental groups (n=20): C: drinking water only and EtOH: drinking 10% (v/v) ethanol at >2 g/kg body weight/day+water. At 150 days old, 10 rats from each group received subcutaneous injections of testosterone cypionate (5 mg/kg body weight) diluted in corn oil every other day for 4 weeks, constituting T and EtOH+T, while the remaining animals received corn oil as vehicle. Animals were euthanized at 180 days old, by decapitation. Blood was collected to obtain hormone concentrations and ventral prostate was dissected and processed for light microscope and molecular analyses. Ventral prostate weight, plasma testosterone and DHT and intraprostatic testosterone concentrations were increased after testosterone treatment. Plasma estradiol level was reduced in the EtOH+T. Inflammatory foci, metaplasia and epithelial atrophy were constantly found in the prostate of EtOH and were not observed after hormonal therapy. No differences were found in the expression of AR, ERβ and DACH-1. Additionally, testosterone treatment down-regulated ERα and increased the e-cadherin and α-actinin immunoreactivities. Testosterone was able to reverse damages caused by ethanol consumption in the prostate microenvironment and becomes a possible target to be investigated to ethanol-related disorders.