Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Diversity and Equitability Ordering Profiles Applied to the Study of Forest Structure

Diversity and Equitability Ordering Profiles Applied to the Study of Forest Structure

A Quantitative Exploration of Social Networks: Verifying the Legitimacy and Equitability of Social Networks in Recruiting

In this digital age organizations must focus on connecting with candidates and aspire for innovation in recruiting practices to remain competitive. This author investigated social networking to determine whether or not it provides reliable candidate information when recruiting for hire. Online media such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter and MySpace, have become an integrated part of social and professional lives. Analysis of social networking revealed use for recruiting but posed challenges and advantages for organizations. A quantitative cross-sectional survey of social network members (N=136) indicated discrepancy in generational use of social networks and concerns regarding the validity and reliability of candidate information. Social networking promotes innovation in recruiting, however, by itself might not endorse equitability, validity and reliability.

Análise de fatores geográficos e climáticos relacionados à distribuição de Phlebotominae (Diptera: Psychodidae) em área de transmissão de leishmaniose tegumentar americana no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil

A leishmaniose tegumentar americana (LTA) é uma doença que acomete pele e mucosas causada por parasitos dermotrópicos do gênero Leishmania Ross, 1903. Os parasitos são transmitidos através da picada de pequenos dípteros da família Psychodidae, os flebotomíneos. O município de Cariacica, Espírito Santo, Brasil, esteve nos últimos cinco anos (2009 a 2013) entre os cinco que apresentaram maior número de casos notificados no estado, segundo a Secretaria de Estado de Saúde (SESA-ES, 2014). A localidade de Roda D’Água demonstra grande importância, por concentrar elevado número de casos, contribuindo com grande parte das notificações do município. Avaliando os casos da doença na região, registrados nos prontuários médicos do serviço de referência, na Unidade de Medicina Tropical da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, observou-se que estes ocorriam a até 550 m de altitude, numa área que vai de 20 a 718 m. A hipótese mais provável seria a de que o fenômeno fosse relacionado aos vetores, já que o homem e os animais estariam presentes em todas as altitudes. De fevereiro de 2002 a janeiro de 2004 foram realizadas coletas mensais de flebotomíneos em Roda D’Água, que aconteciam simultaneamente em três níveis de altitude, sendo: nível 1 - até 250 m; nível 2 - entre 250 e 500m e nível 3 - acima de 500m. Em cada nível as coletas aconteciam em dois ambientes: mata e peridomicílio. As capturas eram feitas em armadilhas de Shannon modificadas e por busca ativa em repouso, com capturador de Castro. Avaliou-se o comportamento das espécies quanto à pluviosidade (períodos seco e chuvoso) e às estações do ano. Analisaram-se estatisticamente as principais espécies antropofílicas de importância epidemiológica (Falqueto, 1995). Foram calculados os índices ecológicos abundância, riqueza, diversidade, equitabilidade e dominância. Coletou-se um total de 13233 flebotomíneos, com identificação de 23 espécies. A espécie predominante foi Nyssomyia intermedia (61,12%), seguida por Pintomyia fischeri (18,20%) e Migonemyia migonei (8,68%), todas antropofílicas. Somou-se a estas a espécie Pintomyia monticola, que representou 1,67% do total de espécimes coletados e também é altamente antropofílica. As demais espécies somaram 10,10% do total de flebotomineos. A altitude influenciou a distribuição das quatro espécies analisadas, tendo Ny. intermedia e Pi. fischeri sido mais abundantes no nível 2, Mg. migonei mais abundante no nível 1 e Pi. monticola no nível 3. Em relação ao ambiente, as espécies Ny. intermedia e Mg. migonei foram estatisticamente mais abundantes no peridomicílio e Pi. monticola na mata. A distribuição de Pi. fisheri não apresentou diferença significativa entre os dois ambientes, porém foi a única afetada pelas chuvas e estações do ano, sendo a espécie mais encontrada no período seco e no inverno. Nyssomyia intermedia parece ser a principal espécie vetora da LTA em Roda D’Água, com Mg. migonei provavelmente tendo papel secundário. Pi. fisheri não parece estar envolvido localmente na transmissão da doença para humanos, apesar de já ter sido incriminado em outras regiões. A distribuição de Pi. monticola em relação à altitude e ao ambiente indica ser improvável sua participação na transmissão da LTA naquela região.

Mudanças temporais na abundância e diversidade da fauna de peixes do infralitoral raso de uma praia, sul do Brasil

Abundance and diversity of the fish fauna in the shallow infralittoral region of Atami Beach, Paraná, Brazil, were studied through monthly collections between July 1998 and June 1999. A total of 7553 fishes from 70 species and 26 families, mainly juvenile forms, was captured in the area. The mean captures in number of species, number of fish and biomass were larger from the end of spring to the middle of autumn; seasonal tendency in richness, diversity (number) and equitability indices were not observed. The largest mean dissimilarity in the composition of the ichthyofauna occurred between June and May in comparison to the period between July and October. The species that contributed most to this dissimilarity were Selene setapinnis (Mitchill, 1815), Conodon nobilis (Linnaeus, 1758) and Stellifer rastrifer (Jordan, 1889). Three great groups reflecting patterns of temporal occurrence of the most abundant species were identified.

Structure of Poduromorpha (Collembola) communities in "restinga" environments in Brazil

The objectives of this work were to evaluate the richness and diversity of the Poduromorpha fauna in two biotopes in Restinga de Maricá, RJ, Brazil, to identify the characteristic species of each biotope and to determine the relationships between the community structure and the abiotic environmental parameters. Representatives of the Poduromorpha (Collembola) order were studied under an ecological viewpoint in halophyte-psammophyte vegetation and foredune zone in preserved areas of Restinga de Maricá, a sand dune environment in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The foredune zone showed the highest diversity, richness and equitability of springtail species. Differences in the fundamental, accessory and accidental species in each environment were encountered. Paraxenylla piloua was found to be an indicator species of the halophyte-psammophyte vegetation, while Friesea reducta, Pseudachorutes difficilis and Xenylla maritima were indicators of the foredune zone. The canonical correspondence analysis indicated pH, organic matter content and soil humidity as the most important factors influencing the spatiotemporal distribution of the species.

Unexpected effects of pigeon-peas (Cajanus cajan) in the restoration of rupestrian fields

Several degraded areas can be found along the Highway MG-010 that crosses the Espinhaço Mountain Biosphere Reserve in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Restoration by planting the legume Cajanus cajan was implemented in some of these areas. The present study compares plant species richness, diversity, abundance, equitability, similarity, and soil composition between restored and non-restored areas, in an attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of C. cajan in the restoration process in the mountain environment. Each treatment (restored and non-restored) had four sampling areas, each with three 300 m² plots. We counted and identified every individual plant found within these plots. We also collected soil from the superficial layer (0-10 cm) of each sampling area in both treatments. The areas where C. cajan was planted revealed lower species richness, diversity, and plant abundance. The soil of these areas also contained higher levels of Phosphorus and Magnesium. Plant equitability and similarity between plots and other soil components (pH, Nitrogen, Aluminum, Calcium, Potassium, H+Al, sum of bases - SB, cation exchange capacity - CTC, base saturation - V%, aluminum saturation - M%) did not differ between the two treatments. Contrary to the expectations, soil enhancement in the quartzitic soil poor in nutrients in the rupestrian fields can facilitate the invasion by exotic plants, which are not adapted to the lack of nutrients. As it appears, the use of C. cajan in restoration projects represents a mistake and future restoration plans should avoid the use of exotic species, given that they may cause negative effects on the native plant community, as demonstrated here in the rupestrian fields.

Inter-annual variations in the floristic and population structure of an herbaceous community of "caatinga" vegetation in Pernambuco, Brazil

The influence of climatic variations on the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation was examined in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. A total of 105 1 × 1 m-plots were established, of which 35 were in a level micro-habitat, 35 in a riparian micro-habitat, and 35 in a stony microhabitat. During two consecutive years all herbaceous plants in these plots were counted, measured (height and diameter), and collected for identification. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index and the equitability were calculated for each year, as well as the density, frequency, dominance, total basal area and importance index for each species. The total annual pluviometric was 819.5 and 448.8 mm in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The herbaceous flora in the study area was composed of 71 species, of which 58 were sampled in the plots. The families with the greatest species richness were Malvaceae (8 species), Euphorbiaceae (7), Poaceae (6), Convolvulaceae (4), Fabaceae (4), and Portulacaceae (4). The diversity indices were 2.66 and 3.01 nats ind-1 in 2002 and 2003, respectively. The density, frequency, dominance and importance value of herbaceous populations, as well as, the height and diameter of plants were low in the dryer year. The riparian group was the most isolated of the microhabitats examined, both in terms of its floristic and its population structure. Annual seasonal climatic variations greatly modified these populations structure during the course of this study, emphasizing the fact that long-term studies are needed in order to better understand the dynamics of the herbaceous component of the "caatinga" vegetation.

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

We examined the relationships between environmental variations in lotic ecosystems with the seasonal dynamics of macroalgae communities at different spatial scales: drainage basin of two rivers (Rio das Pedras and Rio Marrecas), shading (open and shaded stream segments), mesohabitat (riffles and pools), and microhabitats. Data collections were made on a monthly basis between January and December/2007. A total of 16 taxa were encountered (13 species and 3 vegetative groups). All of the biotic parameters (richness, abundance, diversity, equitability, and dominance) were found to be highly variable at all of the spatial scales evaluated. On the other hand, abiotic variables demonstrated differences only at mesohabitat (in terms of current velocity) and shaded habitat (in terms of irradiance) scales. The seasonality of the macroalgae community structure was strongly influenced by microhabitat variables (current velocity, substrate H', and irradiance), demonstrating their importance over time and at different scales. Regional variables (temperature, oxygen saturation, specific conductance, pH, and turbidity) were found to have little influence on the temporal dynamics of the macroalgae communities evaluated.

STRUCTURE OF THE SHRUB-ARBOREAL COMPONENT OF AN ATLANTIC FOREST FRAGMENT ON A HILLOCK IN THE CENTRAL LOWLAND OF RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

The present study describes and evaluates the horizontal and vertical structures of a lowland forest fragment on a hillock in the municipality of Silva Jardim, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil (22 degrees 31`56 `` S and 42 degrees 20`46 `` W). Twenty plots (10x2m) totaling 0.5ha were laid out following the slope grade using DBH >= 5cm as the inclusion criterion. A total of 734 individuals were encountered, yielding a total density of 1468 ind./ha and a total basal area of 10783m(2). The richness values (129 species/41 families), Shannon-Wiener diversity (4.22) and equitability (0.87) indices indicated an accentuated floristic heterogeneity and low ecological dominance. Lauraceae, Myrtaceae, Fabaceae and Euphorbiaceae showed the greatest species richness, corroborating other studies that indicated these species as the most representative of Atlantic Forest areas in southeastern Brazil. The species with the greatest importance values (VI) were Aparisthmium cordatum, Guapira opposita, Lacistema pubescens, Xylopia sericea, Tapirira guianensis and Piptocarpha macropoda. The high diversity observed was influenced by earlier anthropogenic actions and by the current successional stage. The forest fragment studied demonstrated closer floristic similarity to areas inventoried in a close-by biological reserve than to fragments dispersed throughout the coastal plain. Similarities in soil type, degree of soil saturation and use-history of forest resources all support these relationships. The fragmented physiognomy of the central lowland in this region and the use-history of the landscape make these small remnant forest areas important in terms of establishing strategies for landscape restoration and species conservation.

Estrutura e dinâmica do fitoplânctone bacterioplâncton em cultivos de camarão no Rio Grande do Norte-Brasil: impacto sobre o ambiente natural

This work aimed to study the structure and dynamic of Phytoplankton and Bacterioplankton in a complete cycle of shrimp cultivation (Litopenaeus vannamei) and determine the environmental factors responsible for the structural changes of these communities. The study was realized in a saltwater shrimp farm (Macaíba, RN), between September/2005 and February/2006, and in a freshwater shrimp farm (Ceará Mirim, RN), between May/2007 and September 2007. The samplings were collected weekly in saltwater farm and every fifteen days in freshwater farm. Total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and environmental parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, depth and water transparency) were measured. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the phytoplankton and bacterioplankton were carried out. The Shannon-Wiener ecologic indexes of diversity and the Pielou equitability indexes were calculated to the phytoplankton. Bacterial density was determined by epifluorescence microscopy. The data were statistically analyzed by Pearson correlation and t-Test. Chlorophycea were predominat in salt water and in the captation/drainage point (24 to 99%). Diatoms had higher wealth. The species Choricystis minor had the highest occurrence (100%) and dominance (90-100%), thus showing its adaptation to the high temperatures, salinity and low water transparency conditions. Filamentous Cyanobacteria like Oscillatoria sp., Pseudoanabaena sp. and Phormidium sp. had constant levels. The negative correlation between chlorophycea and water transparency, and the positive correlation between chlorophyll a and salinity, showed that the phytoplankton was well adapted to the low transparency and to the high salinity. The bacterioplankton was negatively correlated with the total phosphorus and salinity. In freshwater, Cyanobacteria were predominant (>80%), presenting some producers of toxins species like Microcystis sp., Aphanizomenon sp., Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii e Anabaena circinalis. Cyanobacterial density and total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations exceeded the maximum value allowed by legislation. The means of total phosphorus varied from 264 to 627 Wg.L-1 and the means of chlorophyll a oscillated between 22 and 182 Wg.L-1. The phytoplankton species were selected by low availability of the light, high pH, temperature and high availability of total phosphorus. The bacterioplankton showed high densities (5,13 x 107 to 8,50 x107 Bac.mL-1). The studied environments (ponds and rivers) presented a high level of trophic state based on the high concentrations of chlorophyll a and total phosphorus and cyanobacteria dominance. The composition of species in the ponds and rivers was similar, as well as high concentrations of total phosphorus and chlorophyll a, highlighting the pollution caused by the discharges of the farms in natural environment

Bioecologia da ictiofauna marinha descartada pelo arrasto camaroeiro em praias da Bacia Potiguar, Brasil

The composition of ichthyofauna discarded by trawling shrimping, their reproductive status and feeding ecology were studied on the beaches of Basin Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Fish were collected monthly in the year of 2012. During biometrics, portions of the digestive tract and of gonads were removed, fixed in formalin 10% and Bouin, respectively, for be submitted to histological processing by the techniques of hematoxylin-eosin. Stomach content analyzes were performed using the methods of Frequency of Occurrence and Volumetric and was calculated the repletion index. Throughout the study period were recorded a total of 49 species. The fish assemblages differed between sections monitoring, with the highest abundance, biomass and indices of richness and diversity in sections B, D and C. Already the excerpt A, showed higher values for dominance and equitability. In the cluster analysis according to the faunal similarity was observed the formation of three groups: group I formed by excerpts B and D, group II by excerpt C and group III formed by excerpt A. The assessment of reproductive stage revealed that the fish assemblages discarded by trawling are composed mainly of juveniles. Regarding the feeding ecology, the species Larimus breviceps, Menticirrhus littoralis and Pomadasys corvinaeformis characterized as carnivorous with tendency to carcinofagia. Already Conodon nobilis characterized as carnivorous with tendency to piscivory, but all proved generalist-opportunistic with increase of feeding activity during drought. The dendrogram of grouping of the species developed based on the food items used shows the formation of four groups: Group I consists of species that feed mainly of "gastropod" and "sediment"; group II of "teleost fish"; the group III of "crustacea" and group IV of "echinodermata" and "bivalve". The anatomical and histological characteristics of the digestive tract were consistent with the dietary habits of the analyzed species. In this context, the Costa Branca of Rio Grande do Norte can be considered a feeding site and recruitment for juveniles, which, opportunistically, utilize resources associated with the background

Characterization of a plankton community in a fish farm

Aim: The objective of this study was to analyze the composition of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities related to the dynamics of a fish farm; Methods: Samples were collected every other day, within a period of twenty consecutive days, during the dry and rainy seasons. Two samples were collected upstream from the fish pond (reservoir); the other four samples were collected in the fish farm area; Results: Rotifera and Chlorophyceae species were found in high densities at almost all sampling sites during both seasons under analysis. The higher phytoplankton species richness from site P3 to P6 was influenced by the management employed within the fish farm. The zooplankton community showed low values of density, species richness and equitability during the dry season; Conclusions: The continuous water flow and the addition of fertilizers (organic and inorganic) in the fish ponds had an influence on the plankton community, leading to a reduction in water quality and Cyanobacteria dominance.

Influence of management on plankton community of fishponds during the dry and rainy seasons

Aim: The present investigation aims at evaluating attention to the occurrence and abundance of planktonic communities in fishponds and their relationships to the management employed; Methods: Seven fishponds (V1-V7) fertilized with different treatments were analyzed by monthly sampling, taken between July and December/07, during both dry and rainy seasons; Results: Euglenophyceae and Chlorophyceae were most representative during the studied period. In the fishpond with organic fertilizer Cyanobacteria was more than 65 and 90% of total phytoplankton abundance in September and August, mainly represented by Microcystis sp. (14,595 and 22,500 ind.L-1, respectively). An inverse relationship occurred between Copepoda and Cladocera, and Copepoda and Rotifera were present in all fishponds during the both seasons. Diversity (H') and species richness was low and equitability indices generally showed the highest values for zooplankton. The lowest values were observed for phytoplankton during the rainy season; Conclusions: The use of organic fertilizer and the random emptying of the fishponds affected directly and species diversity and richness, with dominance of Cyanobacteria emphasizing the need to adopt a management technique to increase fishponds productivity and consequently, fish production.

Efeitos da dessecação com glyphosate e chlorimuron-ethyl na comunidade infestante e na produtividade da soja

O efeito de dessecantes sobre o período anterior à interferência (PAI) pode auxiliar na tomada de decisão para o manejo das plantas daninhas. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi verificar se a adição de chlorimuron-ethyl ao glyphosate, para dessecação em pré-semeadura, altera a extensão do PAI na soja. O experimento foi realizado em Jaboticabal-SP, Brasil, submetendo-se o cultivar Monsoy 7908RR a oito períodos de convivência com plantas daninhas, além de testemunhas no mato e no limpo, nos quais foram aplicados dois grupos de tratamentos: glyphosate e glyphosate + chlorimuron-ethyl. em cada período, foram calculados o índice de importância relativa e os índices de diversidade e equitabilidade; por meio da análise de regressão dos dados de produtividade de grãos, determinou-se o PAI. Digitaria insularis, Acanthospermum hispidum, Raphanus raphanistrum e Commelina benghalensis apresentaram maior importância relativa. Os índices de diversidade e equitabilidade oscilaram durante os períodos, e a diferença entre as plantas daninhas fundamentou-se no acúmulo de massa seca. O PAI na soja no tratamento com glyphosate foi de 37 dias após a semeadura (DAS) e de 51 DAS naquele com glyphosate + chlorimuron-ethyl. A adição de chlorimuron-ethyl ao glyphosate permite que a cultura conviva mais tempo com as plantas daninhas sem que ocorra redução significativa na produtividade.