Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Continuous-time formulation of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulations

We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time

RUMOR PROCESSES ON N

We study four discrete-time stochastic systems on N, modeling processes of rumor spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumor. The appetite for spreading or hearing the rumor is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand-based on the distribution of the random variables-whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumor is positive or not.

Optimal control strategy for fed-batch enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass based on epidemic modeling

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The white epidemic and the asepsis of refined earthenware in Belle Epoque Sao Paulo

The article examines Brazilian refined earthenwares known as faianca fina (fine faience) and relates ideas about its production to the contextual backdrop of hygienist discourses in the city of Sao Paulo in the early twentieth century. Based on an analysis of glaze components, moisture expansion processes, and technological aspects of the production of earthenware recovered from the Petybon archeological site, it is suggested that the establishment of factories and the production and consumption of white ceramics in the city of Sao Paulo were partially a consequence of the vigorous hygienization policies and modernity projects then advocated by Sao Paulo's elites.

All in the Family? Parental Roles in the Epidemic of Childhood Obesity

Childhood obesity is a serious global health challenge. Families and consumption are at the nexus of the problem, as childhood weight issues depend significantly on family-related influences (genetic predispositions, physical activities, and household food consumption practices). This article focuses on how a family socializes a child toward or away from obesity. It advances a family consumer socialization framework to characterize key elements and processes. Biological predispositions, parent/family inputs, elements of child development, parent-child interactions, and intergenerational transfer are all major contributors to weight status and life course potentials. Time is also a crucial component, here represented in two forms -- linear and cyclical. Drawing on extensive research from other disciplines and related consumer research, five “Foundational Properties” are distilled, representing fundamental tenets underpinning the family’s role in this problem. Each property is then used to chart promising opportunities for consumer researchers and others interested in advancing knowledge on this pressing concern.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Too Much to Belong: Latina/o Racialization, Obesity Epidemic Discourse, and Unassimilable Corporeal Excess

This project examines the discursive constructions of Latina/o bodies as excessive in order to examine how Latinas/os are excluded from belonging to the U.S. nation-state. By approaching Latina/o Studies from a Fat Studies perspective, it works to more adequately address the role of embodiment in determining processes of racialization that directly impact Latinas/os in the United States, especially in light of the role of race and racism in “obesity epidemic” discourse. This dissertation argues that cultural and even physiological explanations about the Latina/o propensity for “overweight” and “obesity” create a discourse that marks the Latina/o body as demonstrating an unassimilable corporeal excess. In turn, the rhetoric of “diversity” and “multiculturalism” are rendered inapplicable to Latinas/os, as demonstrated by both nativist and seemingly pro-immigrant discourses that posit Latina/o physical excess in the form of fatness as detrimental and even dangerous to the U.S. nation-state.

Geochemistry Of Acid Mine Drainage From A Coal Mining Area And Processes Controlling Metal Attenuation In Stream Waters, Southern Brazil.

Acid drainage influence on the water and sediment quality was investigated in a coal mining area (southern Brazil). Mine drainage showed pH between 3.2 and 4.6 and elevated concentrations of sulfate, As and metals, of which, Fe, Mn and Zn exceeded the limits for the emission of effluents stated in the Brazilian legislation. Arsenic also exceeded the limit, but only slightly. Groundwater monitoring wells from active mines and tailings piles showed pH interval and chemical concentrations similar to those of mine drainage. However, the river and ground water samples of municipal public water supplies revealed a pH range from 7.2 to 7.5 and low chemical concentrations, although Cd concentration slightly exceeded the limit adopted by Brazilian legislation for groundwater. In general, surface waters showed large pH range (6 to 10.8), and changes caused by acid drainage in the chemical composition of these waters were not very significant. Locally, acid drainage seemed to have dissolved carbonate rocks present in the local stratigraphic sequence, attenuating the dispersion of metals and As. Stream sediments presented anomalies of these elements, which were strongly dependent on the proximity of tailings piles and abandoned mines. We found that precipitation processes in sediments and the dilution of dissolved phases were responsible for the attenuation of the concentrations of the metals and As in the acid drainage and river water mixing zone. In general, a larger influence of mining activities on the chemical composition of the surface waters and sediments was observed when enrichment factors in relation to regional background levels were used.

Construction Of A Manual Of Work Processes And Techniques From Centro De Dispensação De Medicamentos De Alto Custo (cedmac), Hospital De Clínicas, Unicamp.

The Centers for High Cost Medication (Centros de Medicação de Alto Custo, CEDMAC), Health Department, São Paulo were instituted by project in partnership with the Clinical Hospital of the Faculty of Medicine, USP, sponsored by the Foundation for Research Support of the State of São Paulo (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP) aimed at the formation of a statewide network for comprehensive care of patients referred for use of immunobiological agents in rheumatological diseases. The CEDMAC of Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (HC-Unicamp), implemented by the Division of Rheumatology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, identified the need for standardization of the multidisciplinary team conducts, in face of the specificity of care conducts, verifying the importance of describing, in manual format, their operational and technical processes. The aim of this study is to present the methodology applied to the elaboration of the CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual as an institutional tool, with the aim of offering the best assistance and administrative quality. In the methodology for preparing the manuals at HC-Unicamp since 2008, the premise was to obtain a document that is participatory, multidisciplinary, focused on work processes integrated with institutional rules, with objective and didactic descriptions, in a standardized format and with electronic dissemination. The CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual was elaborated in 10 months, with involvement of the entire multidisciplinary team, with 19 chapters on work processes and techniques, in addition to those concerning the organizational structure and its annexes. Published in the electronic portal of HC Manuals in July 2012 as an e-Book (ISBN 978-85-63274-17-5), the manual has been a valuable instrument in guiding professionals in healthcare, teaching and research activities.

Agrin And Perlecan Mediate Tumorigenic Processes In Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma is the most common type of cancer in the oral cavity, representing more than 90% of all oral cancers. The characterization of altered molecules in oral cancer is essential to understand molecular mechanisms underlying tumor progression as well as to contribute to cancer biomarker and therapeutic target discovery. Proteoglycans are key molecular effectors of cell surface and pericellular microenvironments, performing multiple functions in cancer. Two of the major basement membrane proteoglycans, agrin and perlecan, were investigated in this study regarding their role in oral cancer. Using real time quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR), we showed that agrin and perlecan are highly expressed in oral squamous cell carcinoma. Interestingly, cell lines originated from distinct sites showed different expression of agrin and perlecan. Enzymatically targeting chondroitin sulfate modification by chondroitinase, oral squamous carcinoma cell line had a reduced ability to adhere to extracellular matrix proteins and increased sensibility to cisplatin. Additionally, knockdown of agrin and perlecan promoted a decrease on cell migration and adhesion, and on resistance of cells to cisplatin. Our study showed, for the first time, a negative regulation on oral cancer-associated events by either targeting chondroitin sulfate content or agrin and perlecan levels.

In vitro Microfluidic Model For The Study Of Vaso-occlusive Processes.

Vaso-occlusion, responsible for much of the morbidity of sickle-cell disease, is a complex multicellular process, apparently triggered by leukocyte adhesion to the vessel wall. The microcirculation represents a major site of leukocyte-endothelial interactions and vaso-occlusive processes. We have developed a biochip with subdividing interconnecting microchannels that decrease in size (40 μm to 10 μm in width), for use in conjunction with a precise microfluidic device, to mimic cell flow and adhesion through channels of sizes that approach those of the microcirculation. The biochips were utilized to observe the dynamics of the passage of neutrophils and red blood cells, isolated from healthy and sickle-cell anemia (SCA) individuals, through laminin or endothelial adhesion molecule-coated microchannels at physiologically relevant rates of flow and shear stress. Obstruction of E-selectin/intercellular adhesion molecule 1-coated biochip microchannels by SCA neutrophils was significantly greater than that observed for healthy neutrophils, particularly in the microchannels of 40-15 μm in width. Whereas SCA red blood cells alone did not significantly adhere to, or obstruct, microchannels, mixed suspensions of SCA neutrophils and red blood cells significantly adhered to and obstructed laminin-coated channels. Results from this in vitro microfluidic model support a primary role for leukocytes in the initiation of SCA occlusive processes in the microcirculation. This assay represents an easy-to-use and reproducible in vitro technique for understanding molecular mechanisms and cellular interactions occurring in subdividing microchannels of widths approaching those observed in the microvasculature. The assay could hold potential for testing drugs developed to inhibit occlusive mechanisms such as those observed in SCA and thrombotic diseases.