Ross River virus transmission, infection, and disease: a cross-disciplinary review

Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.

Mosquito isolates of Ross River virus from Cairns, Queensland, Australia

During 1996-1998 60,619 mosquitoes were collected around Cairns, Australia and processed for Alphavirus isolation. Thirty-three isolates of Ross River (RR) virus were made from 9 species, Aedes imprimens, Aedes kochi, Aedes notoscriptus, Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, Mansonia septempunctata, Verrallina (formerly Aedes) carmenti, and Verrallina lineatus. Attempts to isolate RR virus from 121 Aedes aegypti were unsuccessful. Twenty six (79%) of the isolates came from within 1 km of a colony of spectacled flying-foxes, Pteropus conspicillatus. The minimum infection rate for these mosquitoes was 1.0 compared with 0.2 per 1,000 for mosquitoes trapped at all other sites. Ross River virus has not previously been isolated from Ae. imprimens, Cx. gelidus, Ma. septempunctata, Ve. carmenti, or Ve. lineatus. This is also the first isolation of an arbovirus from Cx. gelidus in Australia. In conclusion, the vector status of Ve. carmenti, Ae. aegypti and Mn. septempunctata warrants further study. This study also provides evidence that P. conspicillatus may be a reservoir host.

Geographic variation of notified Ross River virus infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (X (2)((df = 2)) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

Epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for detection of antibodies to Ross River virus in vertebrate sera

We describe the development of an epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the sensitive and rapid detection of antibodies to Ross River virus (RRV) in human sera and known vertebrate host species. This ELISA provides an alternative method for the serodiagnosis of RRV infections.

A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Detection of a new mumps virus genotype during parotitis epidemic of 2006-2007 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Nucleotide sequence analyses of the SH gene of 18 mumps virus isolates collected in the 2006-2007 parotitis epidemic in the state of São Paulo identified a new genotype, designated genotype M. This new designation fulfills all the parameters required to define a new mumps virus genotype. The parameters were established by an expert panel in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2005. This information will enhance the mumps virus surveillance program both at the national and global levels

Characterization of Dengue Virus Type 2: New Insights on the 2010 Brazilian Epidemic

Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes 1, 2, and 3 have been causing yearly outbreaks in Brazil. In this study, we report the reintroduction of DENV2 in the coast of Sao Paulo State. Partial envelope viral genes were sequenced from eighteen patients with dengue fever during the 2010 epidemic. Phylogenetic analysis showed this strain belongs to the American/Asian genotype and was closely related to the virus that circulated in Rio de Janeiro in 2007 and 2008. The phylogeny also showed no clustering by clinical presentation, suggesting that the disease severity could not be explained by distinct variants or genotypes. The time of the most recent common ancestor of American/Asian genotype and the Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (SP/RJ) monophyletic cluster was estimated to be around 40 and 10 years, respectively. Since this virus was first identified in Brazil in 2007, we suggest that it was already circulating in the country before causing the first documented outbreak. This is the first description of the 2010 outbreak in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and should contribute to efforts to control and monitor the spread of DENVs in endemic areas.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An epidemic of violence?: Changing patterns in reported rapes in Victoria

Victoria Police statistics show that, since the late 1980s, there has been a significant increase in reported rapes in that State. One interpretation of this trend is that there has been an increase in the underlying incidence of sexual violence in the community. An alternative explanation is that rape victims have become more willing to report to the police, in response to factors such as improved provision of support services to sexual assault victims, reforms to substantive and procedural law, and changes in police attitudes and procedures. In order to rest these competing interpretations data were collected and analysed on the characteristics of rapes reported to the Victoria Police in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This analysis showed that: (I) most of the additional offences reported in the early 1990s were allegations of rapes committed by family members, spouses and other intimates; and (2) an increasing number of reports related to offences which had been committed at feast one year prior to a report being made to the police. It is argued that these changing patterns are consistent with a significant increase in the reporting rate for rape. More generally, the research reported in this paper highlights the limitations of reported crime statistics as measures of the level of social violence, and points to the need for crime researchers to develop alternative methodologies for measuring and interpreting trends.

A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic

In this work we show that the dengue epidemic in the city of Singapore organized itself into a scale-free network of transmission as the 2000-2005 outbreaks progressed. This scale-free network of cluster comprised geographical breeding places for the aedes mosquitoes, acting as super-spreaders nodes in a network of transmission. The geographical organization of the network was analysed by the corresponding distribution of weekly number of new cases. Therefore, our hypothesis is that the distribution of dengue cases reflects the geographical organization of a transmission network, which evolved towards a power law as the epidemic intensity progressed until 2005. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.