Környezeti kockázatok felmérése. Paraméterek bizonytalanságának hatása a kockázatkezelési döntéshozatalra = Assessment of environmental risks – effects of parameter uncertainty to the risk management decisions

A környezeti kockázatok megfelelő felmérése és kezelése napjaink egyik legfontosabb kérdése, nemcsak a szakmai, hanem a széles értelemben vett közvélemény számára. A szerző cikkében azt vizsgálja, hogy a környezeti kockázatok felmérésének milyen megközelítései vannak. Kulcskérdésként pedig arra koncentrál, hogy a kockázatkezelési döntéseket hogyan befolyásolja a becslések bizonytalansága. Először a környezeti kockázat definícióját adja meg, majd azt mutatja be, hogy a környezeti kockázatok kezelésére vonatkozó megközelítések milyen párhuzamban állnak a pénzügyi rendszerrel, mint komplex rendszerre vonatkozó megközelítésekkel. Végül a jelenleg legnagyobb kockázatoknak tartott környezeti kockázatokat ismerteti röviden. A cikk második részében kockázatkezelési alternatívákat mutat be, és azt, hogy a kockázatkezelési lépések kiválasztását befolyásolja a bizonytalanság. Ezt illusztrálandó Brouwer-Blois (2008) modelljét használva a soklépéses szimulációt és alternatív döntési kritériumot – a kritikus (extrém) költség-hatás mutatót – alkalmazza. _____________ Adequate assessment and management of environmental risks is a key question nowadays also for professional experts and also for the overall public. In this article the author examines the different approaches concerning environmental risks. He concentrates as a key question the influence on risk management decisions of uncertainties raised by our estimations. First he analyses the definition of environmental risks, and he shows the similarities and differences between approaches concerning environmental risks and risks threatening financial system, and finally he gives short overview on the most current environmental risks. In the second part of the paper he presents risk management alternatives and analyses the influential power of uncertainty on risk management decisions. In order to illustrate this phenomenon the author applies the model of Brouwer-Blois (2008) with multistep simulation and an alternative decisive criterion, the ranking based on critical (extreme) cost to effect measure.

Environmental impacts on soil and groundwater at airports: origin, contaminants of concern and environmental risks

Environmental impacts of airports are similar to those of many industries, though their operations expand over a very large area. Most international impact assessment studies and environmental management programmes have been giving less focus on the impacts to soil and groundwater than desirable. This may be the result of the large attention given to air and noise pollution, relegating other environmental descriptors to a second role, even when the first are comparatively less relevant. One reason that contributes to such ‘‘biased’’ evaluation is the lack of systematic information about impacts to soil and groundwater from airport activities, something the present study intends to help correct. Results presented here include the review of over seven hundred documents and online databases, with the objective of obtaining the following information to support environmental studies: (i) which operations are responsible for chemical releases?; (ii) where are these releases located?; (iii) which contaminants of concern are released?; (iv) what are the associated environmental risks? Results showed that the main impacts occur as a result of fuel storage, stormwater runoff and drainage systems, fuel hydrant systems, fuel transport and refuelling, atmospheric deposition, rescue and fire fighting training areas, winter operations, electrical substations, storage of chemical products by airport owners or tenants, and maintenance of green areas. A new method for ranking environmental risks of organic substances, based on chemical properties, is proposed and applied. Results show that the contaminants with the highest risks are the perfluorochemicals, benzene, trichloroethylene and CCl4.

Trace metals in size-fractionated particulate matter in a Portuguese hospital: exposure risks assessment and comparisons with other countries

Hospitals are considered as a special and important type of indoor public place where air quality has significant impacts on potential health outcomes. Information on indoor air quality of these environments, concerning exposures to particulate matter (PM) and related toxicity, is limited though. This work aims to evaluate risks associated with inhalation exposure to ten toxic metals and chlorine (As, Ni, Cr, Cd, Pb, Mn, Se, Ba, Al, Si, and Cl) in coarse (PM2.5–10) and fine (PM2.5) particles in a Portuguese hospital in comparison with studies representative of other countries. Samples were collected during 1 month in one urban hospital; elemental PM characterization was determined by proton-induced X-ray emission. Noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were assessed according to the methodology provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA; Region III Risk-Based Concentration Table) for three different age categories of hospital personnel (adults, >20, and <65 years) and patients (considering nine different age groups, i.e., children of 1–3 years to seniors of >65 years). The estimated noncarcinogenic risks due to occupational inhalation exposure to PM2.5-bound metals ranged from 5.88×10−6 for Se (adults, 55–64 years) to 9.35×10−1 for As (adults, 20–24 years) with total noncarcinogenic risks (sum of all metals) above the safe level for all three age categories. As and Cl (the latter due to its high abundances) were the most important contributors (approximately 90 %) to noncarcinogenic risks. For PM2.5–10, noncarcinogenic risks of all metals were acceptable to all age groups. Concerning carcinogenic risks, for Ni and Pb, they were negligible (<1×10−6) in both PM fractions for all age groups of hospital personnel; potential risks were observed for As and Cr with values in PM2.5 exceeding (up to 62 and 5 times, respectively) USEPA guideline across all age groups; for PM2.5–10, increased excess risks of As and Cr were observed particularly for long-term exposures (adults, 55–64 years). Total carcinogenic risks highly (up to 67 times) exceeded the recommended level for all age groups, thus clearly showing that occupational exposure to metals in fine particles pose significant risks. If the extensive working hours of hospital medical staff were considered, the respective noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were increased, the latter for PM2.5 exceeding the USEPA cumulative guideline of 10−4. For adult patients, the estimated noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were approximately three times higher than for personnel, with particular concerns observed for children and adolescents.

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.

Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

The role of gender and framing in shaping community activists' perceptions of environmental risks

campaign to oppose projects proposed in their local community. The social constructionist perspective advocates that these motivations are driven by activists’ interpretation of reality, such that activists will assign multiple meanings to and frame environmental issues in a way that reflects their view of reality. Past research suggest that these are also influenced by patterns of shared meaning and interpretation that develop over time in protest movements that shape activists’ perceptions of the environmental risks and impacts associated with construction activity. This paper explores the role of gender distinctions in shaping perceptions of environmental risk and how this affects their framing of the environmental, social, cultural/ historical impacts associated with a construction project. Using Snow and Benford’s (1988) 3-prong analytical tool for framing: diagnostic framing, prognostic framing and motivational framing, this paper presents findings from the content analysis of in-depth interviews of 24 activists protesting against a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The research adopts a single case study approach, and is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24-hour community picket in Australia.

Community protest groups' perceptions of environmental risks using social contagion theory

Local communities are vulnerable to the potential environmental risks associated with construction activity. Currently, little is understood about how perceptions of environmental risks are shaped and spread within a community. A better understanding of this process can help bridge the gap between developers and communities and bring about more sustainable development practices. This paper reports a research methodology which uses social contagion theory to investigate this process. The research adopts a single case study approach of a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The case study is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24 hour community picket in the New South Wales.

Environmental impact assessment of agrochemicals for fish production - a review paper

The environmental impact of agro-chemicals for fish production was extensively reviewed. The positive contribution of agro- chemicals and the devastating effect on aquaculture was x-rayed to alert users to this obvious environmental problem. Lime and fertilizers are commonly used in fish farming to increase pH of pond soil and water and to increase alkalinity and hardness, reduce humic acid content and to initiate primary and secondary productivity. Devastating effect of lime on environment is likely to be minimal. In the case of fertilizers, over utilization of this agro-chemical could impair water quality as phytoplankton bloom become excessive which consequently raises BOD. The use of Therapeutants in aquaculture was discovered to be more popular in Europe and North America than in the tropics (Africa). Commonly used therapeutants include antibiotics and antimicrobials. For fish pathology chemicals like formalin, potassium permanganate, Dipterex and malachite green are widely in use. Effluent from farms where these chemicals are commonly in use can distort the aquatic ecosystem. The changes in water quality, aquatic community structure and productivity caused by intensive aquaculture are typical of the impacts of pollution from a wide variety of sources like sewage, agricultural run-off and effluent discharges from industry

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.