Evaluation of the main energy scenarios for the global energy transition

Energy scenarios are used as a tool to examine credible future states and pathways. The one who constructs a scenario defines the framework in which the possible outcomes exist. The credibility of a scenario depends on its compatibility with real world experiences, and on how well the general information of the study, methodology, and originality and processing of data are disclosed. In the thesis, selected global energy scenarios’ transparency and desirability from the society’s point of view were evaluated based on literature derived criteria. The global energy transition consists of changes to social conventions and economic development in addition to technological development. Energy solutions are economic and ethical choices due to far-reaching impacts of energy decision-making. Currently the global energy system is mostly based on fossil fuels, which is unsustainable over the long-term due to various reasons: negative climate change impacts, negative health impacts, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, resource-use conflicts with water management and food supply, loss of biodiversity, challenge to preserve ecosystems and resources for future generations, and inability of fossil fuels to provide universal access to modern energy services. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage cannot be regarded as sustainable energy solutions due to their inherent risks and required long-term storage. The energy transition is driven by a growing energy demand, decreasing costs of renewables, modularity and scalability of renewable technologies, macroeconomic benefits of using renewables, investors’ risk awareness, renewable energy related attractive business opportunities, almost even distribution of solar and wind resources on the planet, growing awareness of the planet’s environmental status, environmental movements and tougher environmental legislation. Many of the investigated scenarios identified solar and wind power as a backbone for future energy systems. The scenarios, in which the solar and wind potentials were deployed in largest scale, met best the set out sustainability criteria. In future research, energy scenarios’ transparency can be improved by better disclosure on who has ordered the study, clarifying the funding, clearly referencing to used sources and indicating processed data, and by exploring how variations in cost assumptions and deployment of technologies influence on the outcomes of the study.

A New Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap for a Sustainable Energy Transition in the Region. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 3, February 2013

This paper addresses the urgent need for a sustainable energy transition in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region. It analyses the unsustainable burden of universal energy subsidies and calls for new development paths unlocking the huge potential for low-cost energy efficiency and demand-side management as well as for renewable energy. It argues that a new structure of regional and interconnected energy markets is needed. It then proposes some original approaches regarding the financing of this sustainable energy transition and finally calls for an ambitious, Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap, which should contribute not only to the economic and environmental development of the region, but also to its social and political stability.

Energy Transition in Europe’s Power House. Alleingang, avant-garde or blackout? IES Policy Brief Issue 2012/03/October 2012

Summary. The transformation of Germany’s energy sector will further exacerbate current network fluctuations and intensify the need for modifications in Europe’s power system. Cross-border power transfers will have to increase in order to overcome national limitations for absorbing large volumes of intermittent renewables like wind and solar power. In order to establish such an infrastructure on a European scale, the energy transition needs to be guided by an economic approach designed to prevent further fractures in the Internal Electricity Market. Moreover, constructive negotiations with neighbouring countries on market designs and price signals will be important preconditions for a successful energy transition in Europe.

Energy Transition by 2050: A Multifaceted Challenge for Europe. European Policy Brief No. 8, May 2012

This paper serves as a background for the International High Level Energy Conference organised by Egmont - Royal Institute for International Relations - and the Development Group in Brussels on 10th May 2012

Catalysing the Irish Energy Transition: Capacities and Challenges

The transition to a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the 
year 2050” has been conceptualised as the “national transition objective” in the Irish Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill, passed in late 2015. This has raised a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised and resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. This paper assesses the utility of framings informed by the transitions (MLP) and technological innovation systems perspectives in contributing to transformative societal processes, by examining their application in an Irish case study on policy and technology. Through a qualitative exploration of the broader societal and policy context of the energy sector and a more detailed examination of the innovation systems of selected niche technologies (bioenergy and electric vehicles), the Irish case study sought to identify potential catalysts for a sustainability transition in the energy sector in Ireland: where these exist, how these are being built or enabled, and barriers to change. Following a discussion on the theoretical approaches used, a description will be given of how these were applied in the conducting of the research on transition in Ireland case study and the key findings which emerged. A critical reflection will then be made on the utility of these perspectives (as applied) to contribute to broader processes of societal transformation in Ireland.

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries

Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.

Achieving EU energy targets – Impacts of evolutionary and revolutionary transition paths on power systems

Ambitious energy targets set by EU put pressures to increase share of renewable electricity supply in this and next decades and therefore, some EU member countries have boosted increasing renewable energy generation capacity by implementing subsidy schemes on national level. In this study, two different change approaches to increase renewable energy supply and increase self-sufficiency of supply are assessed with respect to their impacts on power system, electricity market and electricity generation costs in Finland. It is obtained that the current electricity generation costs are high compared to opportunities of earnings from present-day investor’s perspective. In addition, the growth expectations of consumptions and the price forecasts do not stimulate investing in new generation capacity. Revolutionary transition path is driven by administrative and political interventions to achieve the energy targets. Evolutionary transition path is driven by market-based mechanisms, such as market itself and emission trading scheme. It is obtained in this study that in the revolutionary transition path operation of market-based mechanisms is distorted to some extent and it is likely that this path requires providing more public financial resources compared to evolutionary transition path. In the evolutionary transition path the energy targets are not achieved as quickly but market-based mechanisms function better and investment environment endures more stable compared to revolutionary transition path.

Mapping Ireland’s Energy Pathways: Characterizing and Catalyzing Transition

In 2015 Ireland has arguably begun to make its first bold steps in confronting the challenges of energy transition, with the objective of a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the
year 2050” expressed in the 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill and the 2015 Energy Bill acknowledging that energy transformation relied on a new breed of ‘energy citizens’. These represent the first formal articulation of Ireland’s ambition to engage in a radical, long-term and far-reaching transition process, and raises a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised, resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. A range of perspectives on these issues is provided in the growing body of literature on transition theories (Rotmans et al 2001, Markard et al 2012) and the inter-disciplinary EPA-funded CC Transitions project, based at Queen’s University Belfast, represents an attempt to translate this into the context of Ireland’s institutions and technological profile. By relating this to international research on sustainability transitions, which conceptualises transitions as multi-level, multi-phase and multi-actor processes, this paper will explore the opportunities of alternative pathways that could take Ireland towards a more progressing, inclusive and effective low carbon future. Drawing on a number of case studies it will highlight some of the capacities for transition required in Irish society: where these exist, how they are being built or enabled, and the barriers to wider social change.

New stakeholders, spaces and instruments of analysis in the context of energy relationships: Case studies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

Legitimacy Building in Public Disclosures on Strategic Energy Investments

Renewable energy investments play a key role in energy transition. While studies have suggested that social acceptance may form a barrier for renewable energy investments, the ways in which companies perceive and attempt to gain the acceptance have received little attention. This study aims to fill the gap by exploring how large electric utilities justify their strategic investments in their press releases and how do the justifications differ between renewable and non-renewable energy investments. The study bases on legitimacy theory and aims at contributing to the research on legitimation in institutional change. As its research method, the study employs an inductive mixed method content analysis. The study has two parts: a qualitative content analysis that explores and identifies the themes and legitimation strategies of the press releases and a quantitative computer-aided analysis that compares renewable and non-renewable energy investments. The sample of the study consists of 396 press releases representing the strategic energy investments of 34 electric utilities from the list of the world’s 250 largest and financially most successful energy companies. The data is collected from the period of 2010–2014. The study reveals that most important justifications for strategic energy investments are fit with the strategy and environmental and social benefits. Justifications address especially the expectations of market. Investments into non-renewable energy are justified more and they use more arguments addressing the proprieties and performance of power plants whereas renewable energy investments are legitimized by references to past actions and commonly accepted morals and norms. The findings support the notion that validity-addressing and propriety-addressing legitimation strategies are used differently in stable and unstable institutional settings.

Simple Question, Complex Answer : Pathways Towards a 50% Decrease in Building Energy Use

Addressing building energy use is a pressing issue for building sector decision makers across Europe. In Sweden, some regions have adopted a target of reducing energy use in buildings by 50% until 2050. However, building codes currently do not support as ambitious objectives as these, and novel approaches to addressing energy use in buildings from a regional perspective are called for. The purpose of this licentiate thesis was to provide a deeper understanding of most relevant issues with regard to energy use in buildings from a broad perspective and to suggest pathways towards reaching the long-term savings objective. Current trends in building sector structure and energy use point to detached houses constructed before 1981 playing a key role in the energy transition, especially in the rural areas of Sweden. In the Swedish county of Dalarna, which was used as a study area in this thesis, these houses account for almost 70% of the residential heating demand. Building energy simulations of eight sample houses from county show that there is considerable techno-economic potential for energy savings in these houses, but not quite enough to reach the 50% savings objective. Two case studies from rural Sweden show that savings well beyond 50% are achievable, both when access to capital and use of high technology are granted and when they are not. However, on a broader scale both direct and indirect rebound effects will have to be expected, which calls for more refined approaches to energy savings. Furthermore, research has shown that the techno-economic potential is in fact never realised, not even in the most well-designed intervention programmes, due to the inherent complexity of human behaviour with respect to energy use. This is not taken account of in neither current nor previous Swedish energy use legislation. Therefore an approach that considers the technical prerequisites, economic aspects and the perspective of the many home owners, based on Community-Based Social Marketing methodology, is suggested as a way forward towards reaching the energy savings target.

The uncertain future of the coal energy industry in Germany. OSW COMMENTARY #188, 2015-10-20

Germany’s current energy strategy, known as the “energy transition”, or Energiewende, involves an accelerated withdrawal from the use of nuclear power plants and the development of renewable energy sources (RES). According to the government’s plans, the share of RES in electricity production will gradually increase from its present rate of 26% to 80% in 2050. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by 80–95% by 2050 when compared to 1990 levels. However, coal power plants still predominate in Germany’s energy mix – they produced 44% of electricity in 2014 (26% from lignite and 18% from hard coal). This makes it difficult to meet the emission reduction objectives, lignite combustion causes the highest levels of greenhouse gas emissions. In order to reach the emission reduction goals, the government launched the process of accelerating the reduction of coal consumption. On 2 July, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy published a plan to reform the German energy market which will be implemented during the present term of government. Emission reduction from coal power plants is the most important issue. This problem has been extensively discussed over the past year and has transformed into a conflict between the government and the coal lobby. The dispute reached its peak when lignite miners took to the streets in Berlin. As the government admits, in order to reach the long-term emission reduction objectives, it is necessary to completely liquidate the coal energy industry in Germany. This is expected to take place within 25 to 30 years. However, since the decision to decommission nuclear power plants was passed, the German ecological movement and the Green Party have shifted their attention to coal power plants, demanding that these be decommissioned by 2030 at the latest.

Socio-technical transitions and policy change - Advocacy coalitions in Swiss energy policy

Policies and politics are an integral part of socio-technical transitions but have not received much attention in the transitions literature so far. Drawing on the advocacy coalition framework, our paper addresses this gap with a study on actors and coalitions in Swiss energy policy. Our results show that advocacy coalitions in Switzerland have largely remained stable despite the Fukushima shock. However, heterogeneity of beliefs has increased and in 2013, even a majority of actors expressed their support for the energy transition – an indication that major policy change might be ahead. It seems that in socio-technical transitions, changes in the policy issue and in the actor base also work toward policy change, next to changes in core beliefs. We make suggestions how the advocacy coalition framework can inform analysis and theory building in transition studies. We also present first ideas about the interplay of socio-technical systems and policy systems.