Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children

PURPOSE: Screening programs to detect visual abnormalities in children vary among countries. The aim of this study is to describe experts' perception of best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. METHODS: A qualitative focus group technique was applied during the Portuguese national orthoptic congress to obtain the perception of an expert panel of 5 orthoptists and 2 ophthalmologists with experience in visual screening for children (mean age 53.43 years, SD ± 9.40). The panel received in advance a script with the description of three tuning competencies dimensions (instrumental, systemic, and interpersonal) for visual screening. The session was recorded in video and audio. Qualitative data were analyzed using a categorical technique. RESULTS: According to experts' views, six tests (35.29%) have to be included in a visual screening: distance visual acuity test, cover test, bi-prism or 4/6(Δ) prism, fusion, ocular movements, and refraction. Screening should be performed according to the child age before and after 3 years of age (17.65%). The expert panel highlighted the influence of the professional experience in the application of a screening protocol (23.53%). They also showed concern about the false negatives control (23.53%). Instrumental competencies were the most cited (54.09%), followed by interpersonal (29.51%) and systemic (16.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Orthoptists should have professional experience before starting to apply a screening protocol. False negative results are a concern that has to be more thoroughly investigated. The proposed framework focuses on core competencies highlighted by the expert panel. Competencies programs could be important do develop better screening programs.

Reply to letter to the Editor: Expert opinion on best practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children

The aim of this study was to describe experts’ perception of best-practice guidelines and competency framework for visual screening in children. This study uses qualitative data and shows individual/ group conceptualization. The use of evidence from qualitative studies has traditionally been a fundamental source of knowledge in the clinical and social sciences.

Pragmatic approach to nutrition in the ICU: Expert opinion regarding which calorie protein target.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Since the publications of the ESPEN guidelines on enteral and parenteral nutrition in ICU, numerous studies have added information to assist the nutritional management of critically ill patients regarding the recognition of the right population to feed, the energy-protein targeting, the route and the timing to start. METHODS: We reviewed and discussed the literature related to nutrition in the ICU from 2006 until October 2013. RESULTS: To identify safe, minimal and maximal amounts for the different nutrients and at the different stages of the acute illness is necessary. These amounts might be specific for different phases in the time course of the patient's illness. The best approach is to target the energy goal defined by indirect calorimetry. High protein intake (1.5 g/kg/d) is recommended during the early phase of the ICU stay, regardless of the simultaneous calorie intake. This recommendation can reduce catabolism. Later on, high protein intake remains recommended, likely combined with a sufficient amount of energy to avoid proteolysis. CONCLUSIONS: Pragmatic recommendations are proposed to practically optimize nutritional therapy based on recent publications. However, on some issues, there is insufficient evidence to make expert recommendations.

EORTC-ROG expert opinion: radiotherapy volume and treatment guidelines for neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction and the stomach.

PURPOSE: The Gastro-Intestinal Working Party of the EORTC Radiation Oncology Group (GIWP-ROG) developed guidelines for target volume definition in neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) and the stomach. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Guidelines about the definition of the clinical target volume (CTV) are based on a systematic literature review of the location and frequency of local recurrences and lymph node involvement in adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach. Therefore, MEDLINE was searched up to August 2008. Guidelines concerning prescription, planning and treatment delivery are based on a consensus between the members of the GIWP-ROG. RESULTS: In order to support a curative resection of GEJ and gastric cancer, an individualized preoperative treatment volume based on tumour location has to include the primary tumour and the draining regional lymph nodes area. Therefore we recommend to use the 2nd English Edition of the Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma of the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association which developed the concept of assigning tumours of the GEJ and the stomach to anatomically defined sub-sites corresponding respectively to a distinct lymphatic spread pattern. CONCLUSION: The GIWP-ROG defined guidelines for preoperative irradiation of adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach to reduce variability in the framework of future clinical trials.

Expertises croisées dans la dégénérescence maculaire liée à l'âge. Focus sur la physiopathologie, l'angiogenèse, les données pharmacologiques et cliniques [Review and expert opinion in age related macular degeneration. Focus on the pathophysiology, angiogenesis and pharmacological and clinical data].

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is a pathological aging of the macula, brought about by the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. It induces geographic atrophy of the retina and/or choroidal neovascularization. In the latter, abnormal vessels develop from the choriocapillaris, with the involvement of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor). The VEGF family includes several factors, including VEGF-A, B, C, D, F and PlGF (placental growth factor). Their biological properties and their affinities to the VEGFR1, VEGFR2 and VEGFR3 receptors found on endothelial cells differ. Exudative AMD involves mainly VEGF-A and VEGF-R2. Anti-VEGF agents used in ophthalmology (ranibizumab, bevacizumab and aflibercept) are designed to primarily target this pathway. In vitro, all have sufficient affinity to their ligands. Their therapeutic efficacy must therefore be judged based on clinical criteria. In clinical practice, the minimum number of injections required for a satisfactory result appears to be comparable with all the three. The few available studies on therapeutic substitutions of anti-VEGF compounds suggest that some patients may benefit from substituting the anti-VEGF in cases of an unsatisfactory response to an initial molecule. Although local side effects, including increased risk of geographic atrophy, and systemic effects, including vascular accidents, have been suggested, these risks remain low, specially compared to the benefits of the treatment. Differences in safety between anti-VEGF are theoretically possible but unproven.

European expert opinion on the management of invasive candidiasis in adults.

This report discusses the present status of antifungal therapy and treatment options for candidaemia, considered by experts in the field in Europe. A conference of 26 experts from 13 European countries was held to discuss strategies for the treatment and prevention of invasive candidiasis, with the aim of providing a review on optimal management strategies. Published and unpublished comparative trials on antifungal therapy were analysed and discussed. Commonly asked questions about the management of candidaemia were selected, and possible responses to these questions were discussed. Panellists were then asked to respond to each question by using a touchpad answering system. After the initial conference, the viewpoint document has been reviewed and edited to include new insights and developments since the initial meeting. For many situations, consensus on treatment could not be reached, and the responses indicate that treatment is likely to be modified on a patient-to-patient basis, depending on factors such as degree of illness, prior exposure to azole antifungals, and the presence of potentially antifungal drug-resistant Candida species.

Practical guidance and considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine or carbamazepine to eslicarbazepine acetate--Expert opinion.

There is currently a lack of guidance on methodology and special considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine (OXC) or carbamazepine (CBZ) to eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL), if deemed clinically necessary. An advisory panel of epilepsy experts was convened to share their experience on the use of adjunctive ESL in clinical practice and to provide practical recommendations to help address this gap. When changing over from OXC to ESL, an OXC:ESL dose ratio of 1:1 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and the changeover can take place overnight. No changes to comedication are required. Since CBZ has a different mechanism of action to ESL and is a stronger inducer of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, the transitioning of patients from CBZ to ESL requires careful consideration on a patient-by-patient basis. In general, a CBZ:ESL dose ratio of 1:1.3 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and patients should be transitioned over a minimum period of 1-2weeks. Special considerations include adjustment of titration schedule and target dose in elderly patients and those with hepatic or renal impairment and potential adjustment of comedications metabolized by CYP enzymes. In summary, due to structural distinctions between ESL, OXC, and CBZ, which affect mechanism of action and tolerability, there are clinical situations in which it may be appropriate to consider transitioning patients from OXC or CBZ to ESL. Changing patients over from OXC to ESL is generally more straightforward than transitioning patients from CBZ to ESL, which requires careful consideration.

Exploration of implicit theories in the formation of expert opinion in portuguese criminal law

This dissertation examines different aspects involved in the formation of psychologists’ expert opinion in the Portuguese criminal justice system, more precisely, as this opinion is reflected in assessment reports. The present dissertation is comprised of three qualitative studies, the first sought to provide a general portrait of a sample of 106 forensic psychological reports as to their overall quality as measured in terms of relevance and coherence. Results show that the formal markers of quality are present in the sample analysed, a certain number of weaknesses have been observed, notably concerning the internal coherence of the reports as well as the relevance of the information reported on. The second study explored the opinions of 17 Portuguese judges and state prosecutors concerning the use they make of this type of forensic report. It appears that they consider these reports to be useful and very credible, specially so when they have been produced under the auspices of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences, which is the state forensic institution. Furthermore, it appears that judges and prosecutors were particularly interested in data that allowed for a personalised portrait of the assessee. The third study sought to better comprehend the conceptual bases on which psychologists construct their reports. To this end, an exploratory study was undertaken with a sample of key-actors; the analysis of their interviews shows that they define their judicial mandate as well as the basic concepts that are associated to this mandate in different ways. A theoretical framework provided by an implicit theories model was used to help understand these results.

What makes a Salmonella strain epidemic? An expert opinion workshop

An expert opinion workshop was held on the subject of the cause, identification and control of new and emerging Salmonella strains. Experts were invited to complete questionnaires, contribute to structured discussions and take part in cluster group tasks. Outputs of the workshop included that, with current surveillance methods, it might take up to 2.5 years from the first introduction of a new strain into the UK livestock population to its identification as a human epidemic strain. In order to reduce the time to detection and provide more effective control options, several recommendations were made, including better back-tracing of human cases to their source, which would require more effective communication between those responsible for human and veterinary surveillance.

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

Expert opinion as an instrument for assessing investment in primary education

Includes bibliography