Classi cation of new electricity customers based on surveys and smart metering data

This paper proposes a process for the classifi cation of new residential electricity customers. The current state of the art is extended by using a combination of smart metering and survey data and by using model-based feature selection for the classifi cation task. Firstly, the normalized representative consumption profi les of the population are derived through the clustering of data from households. Secondly, new customers are classifi ed using survey data and a limited amount of smart metering data. Thirdly, regression analysis and model-based feature selection results explain the importance of the variables and which are the drivers of diff erent consumption profi les, enabling the extraction of appropriate models. The results of a case study show that the use of survey data signi ficantly increases accuracy of the classifi cation task (up to 20%). Considering four consumption groups, more than half of the customers are correctly classifi ed with only one week of metering data, with more weeks the accuracy is signifi cantly improved. The use of model-based feature selection resulted in the use of a signifi cantly lower number of features allowing an easy interpretation of the derived models.

Customer information system data pre-processing with feature selection techniques for non-technical losses prediction in an electricity market

Non-technical losses (NTL) identification and prediction are important tasks for many utilities. Data from customer information system (CIS) can be used for NTL analysis. However, in order to accurately and efficiently perform NTL analysis, the original data from CIS need to be pre-processed before any detailed NTL analysis can be carried out. In this paper, we propose a feature selection based method for CIS data pre-processing in order to extract the most relevant information for further analysis such as clustering and classifications. By removing irrelevant and redundant features, feature selection is an essential step in data mining process in finding optimal subset of features to improve the quality of result by giving faster time processing, higher accuracy and simpler results with fewer features. Detailed feature selection analysis is presented in the paper. Both time-domain and load shape data are compared based on the accuracy, consistency and statistical dependencies between features.

Definition of MV Load Diagrams via Weighted Evidence Accumulation Clustering using Subsampling

A definition of medium voltage (MV) load diagrams was made, based on the data base knowledge discovery process. Clustering techniques were used as support for the agents of the electric power retail markets to obtain specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. Each customer class resulting from the clustering operation is represented by its load diagram. The Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) were applied to an electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database in order to form the customer’s classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns. The WEACS approach is a clustering ensemble combination approach that uses subsampling and that weights differently the partitions in the co-association matrix. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, all the final data partitions produced by the different variations of the method are combined and the Ward Link algorithm is used to obtain the final data partition. Experiment results showed that WEACS approach led to better accuracy than many other clustering approaches. In this paper the WEACS approach separates better the customer’s population than Two-step clustering algorithm.

Determination of electricity consumers’ load profiles via weighted evidence accumulation clustering using subsampling

With the electricity market liberalization, the distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity consumers. A fair insight on the consumers’ behavior will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In order to form the different consumers’ classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns we use electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database and two approaches: Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) for combining partitions in a clustering ensemble. While EAC uses a voting mechanism to produce a co-association matrix based on the pairwise associations obtained from N partitions and where each partition has equal weight in the combination process, the WEACS approach uses subsampling and weights differently the partitions. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, we combine the partitions obtained in the WEACS approach with the ALL clustering ensemble construction method and we use the Ward Link algorithm to obtain the final data partition. The characterization of the obtained consumers’ clusters was performed using the C5.0 classification algorithm. Experiment results showed that the WEACS approach leads to better results than many other clustering approaches.

A Data-mining-based Methodology to support MV Electricity Customers' Characterization

This paper presents an electricity medium voltage (MV) customer characterization framework supportedby knowledge discovery in database (KDD). The main idea is to identify typical load profiles (TLP) of MVconsumers and to develop a rule set for the automatic classification of new consumers. To achieve ourgoal a methodology is proposed consisting of several steps: data pre-processing; application of severalclustering algorithms to segment the daily load profiles; selection of the best partition, corresponding tothe best consumers’ segmentation, based on the assessments of several clustering validity indices; andfinally, a classification model is built based on the resulting clusters. To validate the proposed framework,a case study which includes a real database of MV consumers is performed.

Detection and Identification of Abnormalities in Customer Consumptions in Power Distribution Systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Data mining contributions to characterize MV consumers and to improve the suppliers-consumers settlements

This paper deals with the establishment of a characterization methodology of electric power profiles of medium voltage (MV) consumers. The characterization is supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD). Data Mining techniques are used with the purpose of obtaining typical load profiles of MV customers and specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. In order to form the different customers’ classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns, a hierarchical clustering algorithm and a clustering ensemble combination approach (WEACS) are used. Taking into account the typical consumption profile of the class to which the customers belong, new tariff options were defined and new energy coefficients prices were proposed. Finally, and with the results obtained, the consequences that these will have in the interaction between customer and electric power suppliers are analyzed.

Typical load profiles in the smart grid context – a clustering methods comparison

The present research paper presents five different clustering methods to identify typical load profiles of medium voltage (MV) electricity consumers. These methods are intended to be used in a smart grid environment to extract useful knowledge about customer’s behaviour. The obtained knowledge can be used to support a decision tool, not only for utilities but also for consumers. Load profiles can be used by the utilities to identify the aspects that cause system load peaks and enable the development of specific contracts with their customers. The framework presented throughout the paper consists in several steps, namely the pre-processing data phase, clustering algorithms application and the evaluation of the quality of the partition, which is supported by cluster validity indices. The process ends with the analysis of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed framework, a case study with a real database of 208 MV consumers is used.

Data mining techniques to support the classification of MV electricity customers

This paper describes a methodology that was developed for the classification of Medium Voltage (MV) electricity customers. Starting from a sample of data bases, resulting from a monitoring campaign, Data Mining (DM) techniques are used in order to discover a set of a MV consumer typical load profile and, therefore, to extract knowledge regarding to the electric energy consumption patterns. In first stage, it was applied several hierarchical clustering algorithms and compared the clustering performance among them using adequacy measures. In second stage, a classification model was developed in order to allow classifying new consumers in one of the obtained clusters that had resulted from the previously process. Finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge are presented and discussed.

An integrated system to support electricity tariff contract definition

This paper presents an integrated system that helps both retail companies and electricity consumers on the definition of the best retail contracts and tariffs. This integrated system is composed by a Decision Support System (DSS) based on a Consumer Characterization Framework (CCF). The CCF is based on data mining techniques, applied to obtain useful knowledge about electricity consumers from large amounts of consumption data. This knowledge is acquired following an innovative and systematic approach able to identify different consumers’ classes, represented by a load profile, and its characterization using decision trees. The framework generates inputs to use in the knowledge base and in the database of the DSS. The rule sets derived from the decision trees are integrated in the knowledge base of the DSS. The load profiles together with the information about contracts and electricity prices form the database of the DSS. This DSS is able to perform the classification of different consumers, present its load profile and test different electricity tariffs and contracts. The final outputs of the DSS are a comparative economic analysis between different contracts and advice about the most economic contract to each consumer class. The presentation of the DSS is completed with an application example using a real data base of consumers from the Portuguese distribution company.

Multi-agent Simulation of Bilateral Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff. © 2014 IEEE.

Multi-agent simulation of bilateral contracting in competitive electricity markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff. © 2014 IEEE.

Determining the Adjustment Baseline Parameters to Define an Accurate Customer Baseline Load

Demand response is an energy resource that has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and of smart grids. New business models and methods designed to integrate demand response in electricity markets and of smart grids have been published, reporting the need of additional work in this field. In order to adequately remunerate the participation of the consumers in demand response programs, improved consumers’ performance evaluation methods are needed. The methodology proposed in the present paper determines the characterization of the baseline approach that better fits the consumer historic consumption, in order to determine the expected consumption in absent of participation in a demand response event and then determine the actual consumption reduction. The defined baseline can then be used to better determine the remuneration of the consumer. The paper includes a case study with real data to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Multi-agent Simulation of Bilateral Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff.