Productivity growth in electric energy retail in Colombia. A bootstrapped malmquist indices approach

This paper offers a productivity growth estimate for electric energy commercialization firms in Colombia, using a non-parametric Malmquist bootstrap methodology. The estimation and methodology serve two main purposes. First, in Colombia Commercialization firms are subject to a price-cap regulation scheme, a non-common arrangement in the international experience for this part of the industry. Therefore the paper’s result suggest an estimate of the productivity factor to be used by the regulator, not only in Colombia but in other countries where commercialization is a growing part of the industry (renewable energy, for instance). Second, because of poor data collection from regulators and firms themselves, regulation based on a single estimation of productivity seems inappropriate and error-prone. The nonparametric Malmquist bootstrap estimation allows an assessment of the result in contrast to a single one estimation. This would open an opportunity for the regulator to adopt a narrower and more accurate productivity estimation or override an implausible result and impose a productivity factor in the price-cap to foster the development of the industry.

Análise termodinâmica e termoeconômica do aproveitamento do gás natural em sistemas de cogeração de energia de usinas de açúcar e álcool

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Resilience in critical infrastructures : the case of the Queensland electricity industry

The reliability of Critical Infrastructure is considered to be a fundamental expectation of modern societies. These large-scale socio-technical systems have always, due to their complex nature, been faced with threats challenging their ongoing functioning. However, increasing uncertainty in addition to the trend of infrastructure fragmentation has made reliable service provision not only a key organisational goal, but a major continuity challenge: especially given the highly interdependent network conditions that exist both regionally and globally. The notion of resilience as an adaptive capacity supporting infrastructure reliability under conditions of uncertainty and change has emerged as a critical capacity for systems of infrastructure and the organisations responsible for their reliable management. This study explores infrastructure reliability through the lens of resilience from an organisation and system perspective using two recognised resilience-enhancing management practices, High Reliability Theory (HRT) and Business Continuity Management (BCM) to better understand how this phenomenon manifests within a partially fragmented (corporatised) critical infrastructure industry – The Queensland Electricity Industry. The methodological approach involved a single case study design (industry) with embedded sub-units of analysis (organisations), utilising in-depth interviews and document analysis to illicit findings. Derived from detailed assessment of BCM and Reliability-Enhancing characteristics, findings suggest that the industry as a whole exhibits resilient functioning, however this was found to manifest at different levels across the industry and in different combinations. Whilst there were distinct differences in respect to resilient capabilities at the organisational level, differences were less marked at a systems (industry) level, with many common understandings carried over from the pre-corporatised operating environment. These Heritage Factors were central to understanding the systems level cohesion noted in the work. The findings of this study are intended to contribute to a body of knowledge encompassing resilience and high reliability in critical infrastructure industries. The research also has value from a practical perspective, as it suggests a range of opportunities to enhance resilient functioning under increasingly interdependent, networked conditions.

Overhead electricity line connector tester

Assessment of the condition of connectors in the overhead electricity network has traditionally relied on the heat dissipation or voltage drop from existing load current (50Hz) as a measurable parameter to differentiate between satisfactory and failing connectors. This research has developed a technique which does not rely on the 50Hz current and a prototype connector tester has been developed. In this system a high frequency signal is injected into the section of line under test and measures the resistive voltage drop and the current at the test frequency to yield the resistance in micro-ohms. From the value of resistance a decision as to whether a connector is satisfactory or approaching failure can be made. Determining the resistive voltage drop in the presence of a large induced voltage was achieved by the innovative approach of using a representative sample of the magnetic flux producing the induced voltage as the phase angle reference for the signal processing rather than the phase angle of the current, which can be affected by the presence of nearby metal objects. Laboratory evaluation of the connector tester has validated the measurement technique. The magnitude of the load current (50Hz) has minimal effect on the measurement accuracy. Addition of a suitable battery based power supply system and isolated communications, probably radio and refinement of the printed circuit board design and software are the remaining development steps to a production instrument.

Towards low emissions in the electricity generation sector : creating a coherent legal model for Australia

Australia’s efforts to transition to a low-emissions economy have stagnated following the successive defeats of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This failure should not, however, be regarded as the end of Australia’s efforts to make this transition. In fact, the opportunity now exists for Australia to refine its existing arrangements to enable this transition to occur more effectively. The starting point for this analysis is the legal arrangements applying to the electricity generation sector, which is the largest sectoral emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Without an effective strategy to mitigate this sector’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change, it is unlikely that Australia will be able to transition towards a low-emissions economy. It is on this basis that this article assesses the dominant national legal arrangement – the Renewable Energy Target – underpinning the electricity generation sector's efforts to become a low-emissions sector.

The value of smart metering household electricity consumption

Smart metering presents opportunities for business model creation. However the viability of many potential business models in a smart metering scenario may be dictated by privacy regulation and data sharing arrangements. An understanding by businesses of customers’ preferences for the visualisation of their electricity consumption and the degree to which they are willing to share it, is valuable. We present results from two interviews exploring data visualisation and willingness to share personal electricity consumption information. Participants displayed a high willingness to share and a preference for access to additional information when visualising their electricity consumption.