Resolving conflict in bipolar societies: The fate of political settlements in Fiji and Northern Ireland

Ethnically divided societies that might be described as ‘balanced bicommunal’ (where there are two communities, each of which comes close to representing half of the population) pose a particular challenge to conventional principles of collective decision-making, and commonly threaten political stability. This article analyses the experience of two such societies – Northern Ireland and Fiji – with a view to exploring whether there are common processes in the route by which political stability has been pursued. We assess the manner in which a distinctive relationship with Great Britain and its political culture has interacted with local conditions to produce a highly competitive, bipolar party system. This leads to consideration of the devices that have been adopted in an effort to bridge the gap between the communities: the Fiji constitution as amended in 1997, and Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998. We focus, in particular, on the use of unusual (preferential voting) formulas for the election of parliamentarians and of an inclusive principle in the selection of ministers, and consider the contribution of these institutional devices to the attainment of political stability. We find that, in both cases, the intervention of forces from outside the political system had a decisive impact, though in very different ways. In addition to being underpinned by solid institutional design, for political settlements to work effectively, some minimal level of trust between rival elites is required.

Religious differences in electoral turnout among women in Northern Ireland

Peer reviewed

Small Steps or Giant Leaps? Defining Reconciliation in the Transition from Conflict in Northern Ireland

The context of Northern Ireland in the transition of conflict has produced a range of efforts to bring about reconciliation. However, definitions and understandings of the nature of reconciliation differ. This paper draws together how reconciliation has been defined in theory in Northern Ireland and elsewhere, examines some models of practice in the light of that theory and illustrates the process of reconciliation through general initiatives in Northern Ireland and specific projects seeking to reconcile at community level. It is concluded that, while political and public processes can set a context and space for engagement to take place, reconciliation is fundamentally about personal encounter and relationship, which have to take place in a range of settings and at all levels of a society that has experienced conflict.

Archives of Working-Class Life: The Labour Movement, Working-Class Cultures and Conflict in Northern Ireland since 1945'

With Dr Seán Byers (83-page report funded by Irish Department of Foreign Affairs, in collaboration with Trademark Belfast, published online on 30 September 2016).

Breaking patterns of conflict in Northern Ireland: new perspectives

Central to reaching peace and settlement in Northern Ireland was a sequence of British–Irish intergovernmental discussions and negotiations, dating from the beginning of the 1980s. British and Irish state cooperation and intervention has remained central to the stability of the settlement reached in 1998. The motives of state actors, however, have been unclear, and the role of the state in the political process has been the subject of some scholarly controversy. This paper looks at the types of evidence that can help to resolve such questions. It focuses on the value of elite interviews, arguing that they can constitute an important and irreplaceable body of evidence when used critically, but it also highlights the risks of excessive reliance on this type of source. It goes on to describe a major research project in University College Dublin whose aim was to record the experiences and interpretations of the actors who engaged in British–Irish negotiations over the last four decades. It discusses the resulting elite interviews and witness seminars and the methodological and ethical difficulties encountered. It describes how these were overcome, and outlines the conditions of confidentiality imposed.

The Peace Processes in the Basque Country and Northern Ireland (1994-2006): a Comparative Approach

The peace process in Northern Ireland demonstrates that new sovereignty formulas need to be explored in order to meet the demands of the populations and territories in conflict. The profound transformation of the classic symbolic elements of the nation-state within the context of the European Union has greatly contributed to the prospects for a resolution of this old conflict. Today’s discussions are focused on the search for instruments of shared sovereignty that are adapted to a complex and plural social reality. This new approach for finding a solution to the Irish conflict is particularly relevant to the Basque debate about formulating creative and modern solutions to similar conflicts over identity and sovereignty. The notion of shared sovereignty implemented in Northern Ireland –a formula for complex interdependent relations– is of significant relevance to the broader international community and is likely to become an increasingly potent and transcendent model for conflict resolution and peace building.

Electoral Systems and Ethnic Conciliation: A Structured, Focused Analysis of Vote-Pooling in Northern Ireland Elections 1998-2011

This research project examines the role of electoral system rules in affecting the extent of conciliatory behavior and cross-ethnic coalition making in Northern Ireland. It focuses on the role of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in shaping party and voter incentives in a post-conflict divided society. The research uses a structured, focused comparison of the four electoral cycles since the Belfast Agreement of 1998. This enables a systematic examination of each electoral cycle using a common set of criteria focused on conciliation and cross-ethnic coalition making. Whilst preference voting is assumed to benefit moderate candidates, in Northern Ireland centrist and multi-ethnic parties outside of the dominant ethnic communities have received little electoral success. In Northern Ireland the primary effect of STV has not been to encourage inter-communal voting but to facilitate intra-community and intra-party moderation. STV has encouraged the moderation of the historically extreme political parties in each of the ethnic bloc. Patterns across electoral cycles suggest that party elites from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein have moderated their policy positions due to the electoral system rules. Therefore they have pursued lower-preference votes from within their ethnic bloc but in doing so have marginalized parties of a multi-ethnic or non-ethnic orientation.

Intra-Group Competition and Inter-Group Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflictual settings. The first of these by Cukierman and Tomassi (1998) labeled the ‘information rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The second labeled the ‘bargaining rationale’ borrowing from Hamlin and Jennings (2007) agrees with the conventional wisdom that doves are more likely to secure peace, but post-conflict there are good reasons for hawks to be rationally selected. The third found in Jennings and Roelfsema (2008) is labeled the social psychological rationale. This captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity, so can apply to group choices which do not impinge upon bargaining power. As in the bargaining rationale, dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the expressive rationale is discussed which predicts that regardless of the underlying structure of the game (informational, bargaining, psychological) the large group nature of decision-making by making individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions which may be invariant with the mode of group interaction, be it conflictual or peaceful. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

Dealing with the Legacy of Ethnic Conflict: Confronting ‘Othering’ through Transformative Adult Education—A Northern Ireland Case Study

Despite its peace process, Northern Ireland remains a deeply divided society. The legacy of a 30-year conflict has ensured that the state continues to be prone to outbreaks of violence over contentious issues such as Orange Order parading and the flying of national flags. This paper argues that in order to address this legacy, there is a need to confront the Othering processes that have helped to generate and sustain division. It will argue that programmes of adult education can play an important role in helping the conflicting groups to reimagine their ‘exclusive’ notions of the nation to one capable of incorporating the Other.

A state-of-the-art review and feasibility analysis of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland

In many countries wind energy has become an indispensable part of the electricity generation mix. The opportunity for ground based wind turbine systems are becoming more and more constrained due to limitations on turbine hub heights, blade lengths and location restrictions linked to environmental and permitting issues including special areas of conservation and social acceptance due to the visual and noise impacts. In the last decade there have been numerous proposals to harness high altitude winds, such as tethered kites, airfoils and dirigible based rotors. These technologies are designed to operate above the neutral atmospheric boundary layer of 1,300 m, which are subject to more powerful and persistent winds thus generating much higher electricity capacities. This paper presents an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art of high altitude wind power, evaluates the technical and economic viability of deploying high altitude wind power as a resource in Northern Ireland and identifies the optimal locations through considering wind data and geographical constraints. The key findings show that the total viable area over Northern Ireland for high altitude wind harnessing devices is 5109.6 km2, with an average wind power density of 1,998 W/m2 over a 20-year span, at a fixed altitude of 3,000 m. An initial budget for a 2MW pumping kite device indicated a total cost £1,751,402 thus proving to be economically viable with other conventional wind-harnessing devices.