Electoral observation: Evidence from Mozambique

Electoral fraud is a common problem in young democracies. Election observers constitute one possible remedy. Yet, quantitative evidence of the exact effects of observers is scarce. Data on the random assignment of observers during Mozambique’s 2009 general elections is used to estimate the impact that observers have on ballot fraud. It is shown that the presence of national observers reduces high levels of turnout and manipulation of ballots. The findings contribute to the understanding of the behavior of politicians and have implications for the implementation of observer missions.

Elections in 2009? Progress and obstacles in the construction of peace in the Ivory Coast

In 2002 in the Ivory Coast three months of armed conflict ended with the division of the country. Two regions were separated by an interposition line controlled by the French Forces Licorne. This significant peace process was maintained over time, but characterized for lack of mutual confidence and political immobility, which led to an impasse and the continuation of Laurent Gbagbo in the presidency. Moreover, the peace building process was less successful because the different political agreements failed to address some of the main national problems, such as land property and identity issues. The following paper aims first to analyze the main facts and causes that instigated the conflict since the coup d’état in 2002. Secondly, the paper will analyze the peace process and point out the key elements of the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement (2007): the creation of a new and unique armed forces structure, as well as the identification of the population and implementation of an electoral process. The main goal is to provide the International Catalan Institute for Peace (ICIP) a working tool in order to send an electoral observation mission to this African country by November 2009.

Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Electoral Platforms, Implemented Policies, and Abstention

Recent studies of American politics evidence that political polarization of both the electorate and the political elite have moved 'almost in tandem for the past half century' (McCarty et al., 2003, p.2), and that party polarization has steadily increased since the 1970s. On the other hand, the empirical literature on party platforms and implemented policies has consistently found an imperfect but nonnegligible correlation between electoral platforms and governmental policies: while platforms tend to be polarized, policies are moderate or centrist. However, existing theoretical models of political competition are not manifestly compatible with these observations. In this paper, we distinguish between electoral platforms and implemented policies by incorporating a non-trivial policy-setting process. It follows that voters may care not only about the implemented policy but also about the platform they support with their vote. We find that while parties tend to polarize their positions, the risk of alienating their constituency prevents them from radicalizing. The analysis evidences that the distribution of the electorate, and not only the (expected) location of a pivotal voter, matters in determining policies. Our results are consistent with the observation of polarized platforms and moderate policies, and the alienation and indifference components of abstention.

Electoral platforms, implemented policies and abstention

Recent studies of American politics evidence that political polarization of both the electorate and the political elite have moved 'almost in tandem for the past half century' (McCarty et al., 2003, p.2), and that party polarization has steadily increased since the 1970s. On the other hand, the empirical literature on party platforms and implemented policies has consistently found an imperfect but nonnegligible correlation between electoral platforms and governmental policies: while platforms tend to be polarized, policies are moderate or centrist. However, existing theoretical models of political competition are not manifestly compatible with these observations.In this paper, we distinguish between electoral platforms and implemented policies by incorporating a non-trivial policy-setting process. It follows that voters may care not only about the implemented policy but also about the platform they support with their vote. We find that while parties tend to polarize their positions, the risk of alienating their constituency prevents them from radicalizing. The analysis evidences that the distribution of the electorate, and not only the (expected) location of a pivotal voter, matters in determining policies. Our results are consistent with the observation of polarized platforms and moderate policies, and the alienation and indifference components of abstention.

Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

El liderazgo carismático religioso como elemento fundamental en la permanencia del movimiento independiente de renovación absoluta (MIRA) en el panorama electoral colombiano (2000-2014)

El propósito de esta investigación es explorar los efectos del liderazgo carismático religioso sobre el desempeño electoral y la supervivencia del movimiento político MIRA en Colombia. Para ello, emplea una metodología cualitativa, que se vale principalmente de entrevistas a profundidad y observación no participante, para acercarse a las prácticas religiosas y a las actitudes políticas de los fieles de la Iglesia de Dios Ministerial de Jesucristo Internacional. A partir de la información recabada a lo largo de este estudio, se pretende demostrar que hay una relación entre el tamaño de la congregación religiosa y el número de votos que obtiene el movimiento MIRA. Ello, gracias a que el papel que María Luisa Piraquive desempeña dentro de la comunidad religiosa contribuye a la legitimación del accionar del movimiento político y al surgimiento de un voluntariado activo dentro de este, que se comporta disciplinada y comprometidamente con los objetivos de dicha organización.

Building peace by supporting post-conflict electoral processes

Les élections post-conflit ou élections de sortie de crise organisées sous l’égide de la communauté internationale en vue de rétablir la paix dans les pays sortant de violents conflits armés ont un bilan mixte caractérisé par le succès ou l’échec selon les cas. Ce bilan mitigé représente le problème principal auquel cette recherche tente de répondre à travers les questions suivantes : l’assistance électorale étrangère est-elle efficace comme outil de rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés post-conflit? Qu’est ce qui détermine le succès ou l’échec des élections post-conflit à contribuer efficacement au rétablissement de la paix dans les sociétés déchirées par la guerre? Pour résoudre cette problématique, cette thèse développe une théorie de l’assistance électorale en période post-conflit centrée sur les parties prenantes à la fois du conflit armé et du processus électoral. Cette théorie affirme que l’élément clé pour le succès des élections post-conflit dans le rétablissement de la paix est le renforcement de la capacité de négociation des parties prenantes à la fois dans le processus de paix et dans le processus électoral post-conflit. Dans les situations post-conflit, une assistance électorale qui se voudrait complète et efficace devra combiner à la fois le processus électoral et le processus de paix. L’assistance électorale sera inefficace si elle se concentre uniquement sur les aspects techniques du processus électoral visant à garantir des élections libres, transparentes et équitables. Pour être efficace, l’accent devra également être mis sur les facteurs supplémentaires qui peuvent empêcher la récurrence de la guerre, tels que l’habilité des individus et des groupes à négocier et à faire des compromis sur les grandes questions qui peuvent menacer le processus de paix. De fait, même des élections transparentes comme celles de 1997 au Liberia saluées par la communauté internationale n’avaient pas réussi à établir des conditions suffisantes pour éviter la reprise des hostilités. C’est pourquoi, pour être efficace, l’assistance électorale dans les situations de post-conflit doit prendre une approche globale qui priorise l’éducation civique, la sensibilisation sur les droits et responsabilités des citoyens dans une société démocratique, le débat public sur les questions qui divisent, la participation politique, la formation au dialogue politique, et toute autre activité qui pourrait aider les différentes parties à renforcer leur capacité de négociation et de compromis. Une telle assistance électorale fera une contribution à la consolidation de la paix, même dans le contexte des élections imparfaites, comme celles qui se sont détenues en Sierra Leone en 2002 ou au Libéria en 2005. Bien que la littérature sur l’assistance électorale n’ignore guère l’importance des parties prenantes aux processus électoraux post-conflit (K. Kumar, 1998, 2005), elle a fortement mis l’accent sur les mécanismes institutionnels. En effet, la recherche académique et professionnelle est abondante sur la réforme des lois électorales, la reforme constitutionnelle, et le développement des administrations électorales tels que les commissions électorales, ainsi que l’observation électorale et autres mécanismes de prévention de la fraude électorale, etc. (Carothers & Gloppen, 2007). En d’autres termes, les décideurs et les chercheurs ont attribué jusqu’à présent plus d’importance à la conception et au fonctionnement du cadre institutionnel et des procédures électorales. Cette thèse affirme qu’il est désormais temps de prendre en compte les participants eux-mêmes au processus électoral à travers des types d’assistance électorale qui favoriseraient leur capacité à participer à un débat pacifique et à trouver des compromis aux questions litigieuses. Cette approche plus globale de l’assistance électorale qui replace l’élection post-conflit dans le contexte plus englobant du processus de paix a l’avantage de transformer le processus électoral non pas seulement en une expérience d’élection de dirigeants légitimes, mais aussi, et surtout, en un processus au cours duquel les participants apprennent à régler leurs points de vue contradictoires à travers le débat politique dans un cadre institutionnel avec des moyens légaux et légitimes. Car, si le cadre institutionnel électoral est important, il reste que le résultat du processus électoral dépendra essentiellement de la volonté des participants à se conformer au cadre institutionnel et aux règles électorales.

Observation Of D0 Meson Nuclear Modifications In Au+au Collisions At Sqrt[s(nn)] = 200 Gev.

We report the first measurement of charmed-hadron (D(0)) production via the hadronic decay channel (D(0) → K(-) + π(+)) in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)] = 200 GeV with the STAR experiment. The charm production cross section per nucleon-nucleon collision at midrapidity scales with the number of binary collisions, N(bin), from p+p to central Au+Au collisions. The D(0) meson yields in central Au + Au collisions are strongly suppressed compared to those in p+p scaled by N(bin), for transverse momenta p(T) > 3 GeV/c, demonstrating significant energy loss of charm quarks in the hot and dense medium. An enhancement at intermediate p(T) is also observed. Model calculations including strong charm-medium interactions and coalescence hadronization describe our measurements.

Observation of muon intensity variations by season with the MINOS far detector

The temperature of the upper atmosphere affects the height of primary cosmic ray interactions and the production of high-energy cosmic ray muons which can be detected deep underground. The MINOS far detector at Soudan, MN, has collected over 67 X 10(6) cosmic ray induced muons. The underground muon rate measured over a period of five years exhibits a 4% peak-to-peak seasonal variation which is highly correlated with the temperature in the upper atmosphere. The coefficient, alpha(T), relating changes in the muon rate to changes in atmospheric temperature was found to be alpha(T) 0: 873 +/- 0: 009(stat) +/- 0.010(syst). Pions and kaons in the primary hadronic interactions of cosmic rays in the atmosphere contribute differently to alpha(T) due to the different masses and lifetimes. This allows the measured value of alpha(T) to be interpreted as a measurement of the K/pi ratio for E(p) greater than or similar to 7 TeV of 0.12(-0.05)(+0.07), consistent with the expectation from collider experiments.

Observation of double electron-positron pair production by gamma rays reexamined

An experiment was conducted to observe triple- and quadruple-escape peaks, at a photon energy equal to 6.128 MeV, in the spectra recorded with a high-purity Ge detector working in coincidence with six bismuth germanate detectors. The peak intensities may be explained having recourse to only the bremsstrahlung cascade process of consecutive electron-positron pair creation; i.e., the contribution of simultaneous double pair formation (and other cascade effects) is much smaller. The experimental peak areas are in reasonably good agreement with those predicted by Monte Carlo simulations done with the general-purpose radiation-tran sport code PENELOPE.

First Direct Observation of Muon Antineutrino Disappearance

This Letter reports the first direct observation of muon antineutrino disappearance. The MINOS experiment has taken data with an accelerator beam optimized for (nu) over bar (mu) production, accumulating an exposure of 1.71 x 10(20) protons on target. In the Far Detector, 97 charged current (nu) over bar (mu) events are observed. The no-oscillation hypothesis predicts 156 events and is excluded at 6.3 sigma. The best fit to oscillation yields vertical bar Delta(m) over bar (2)vertical bar = [3.36(-0.40)(+0.46)(stat) +/- 0.06(sys)] x 10(-3) eV(2), sin(2)(2 (theta) over bar) = 0.86(-0.12)(+0.11)(stat) +/- 0.01(syst). The MINOS nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) measurements are consistent at the 2.0% confidence level, assuming identical underlying oscillation parameters.

Observation of the suppression of the flux of cosmic rays above 4x10(19) eV

The energy spectrum of cosmic rays above 2.5 x 10(18) eV, derived from 20 000 events recorded at the Pierre Auger Observatory, is described. The spectral index gamma of the particle flux, J proportional to E(-gamma), at energies between 4 x 10(18) eV and 4 x 10(19) eV is 2.69 +/- 0.02(stat) +/- 0.06(syst), steepening to 4.2 +/- 0.4(stat) +/- 0: 06 (syst) at higher energies. The hypothesis of a single power law is rejected with a significance greater than 6 standard deviations. The data are consistent with the prediction by Greisen and by Zatsepin and Kuz'min.

Experimental observation of a complex periodic window

The existence of a special periodic window in the two-dimensional parameter space of an experimental Chua's circuit is reported. One of the main reasons that makes such a window special is that the observation of one implies that other similar periodic windows must exist for other parameter values. However, such a window has never been experimentally observed, since its size in parameter space decreases exponentially with the period of the periodic attractor. This property imposes clear limitations for its experimental detection.

Observation of charge-dependent azimuthal correlations and possible local strong parity violation in heavy-ion collisions

Parity (P)-odd domains, corresponding to nontrivial topological solutions of the QCD vacuum, might be created during relativistic heavy-ion collisions. These domains are predicted to lead to charge separation of quarks along the orbital momentum of the system created in noncentral collisions. To study this effect, we investigate a three-particle mixed-harmonics azimuthal correlator which is a P-even observable, but directly sensitive to the charge-separation effect. We report measurements of this observable using the STAR detector in Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at root s(NN) = 200 and 62 GeV. The results are presented as a function of collision centrality, particle separation in rapidity, and particle transverse momentum. A signal consistent with several of the theoretical expectations is detected in all four data sets. We compare our results to the predictions of existing event generators and discuss in detail possible contributions from other effects that are not related to P violation.