Campanha negativa nas eleições legislativas de 2011: uma análise do discurso político

Esta dissertação pretende observar o fenómeno das campanhas negativas nas eleições portuguesas, usando como caso de estudo a campanha eleitoral das eleições legislativas de 2011. Procurou-se analisar o discurso político dos partidos nesta campanha eleitoral, recorrendo à análise de conteúdo. Para apoiar a interpretação dos resultados foram realizadas entrevistas aos directores de campanha ou outros actores políticos com um papel relevante na definição e implementação da estratégia eleitoral do BE, CDU, CDS, PS e PSD. Os resultados indicam que a campanha eleitoral de 2011 foi essencialmente positiva: a maior parte do discurso dos partidos focou-se na apresentação e defesa das suas ideias, programas e qualidades e não na crítica aos adversários. As campanhas negativas incidiram sobretudo sobre conteúdos políticos e os ataques não foram personalizados. Os resultados indicam ainda que as teorias que explicam a utilização de campanhas negativas noutros países não se aplicam em Portugal. Segundo os entrevistados, apesar do confronto de ideias ser essencial, as campanhas negativas não resultam em Portugal, ao contrário do que acontece noutros países.

Principios de la actividad electoral en la era digital : una aproximación al control administrativo colombiano de la propaganda electoral en Internet

El desarrollo tecnológico y la expansión de las formas de comunicación en Colombia, no solo trajeron consigo grandes beneficios, sino también nuevos retos para el Estado Moderno. Actualmente, la oferta de espacios de difusión de propaganda electoral ha aumentado, mientras persiste un marco legal diseñado para los medios de comunicación del Siglo XX. Por tanto, este trabajo no solo realiza un diagnóstico de los actuales mecanismos de control administrativo sobre la propaganda electoral en Internet, sino también propone unos mecanismos que garanticen los principios de la actividad electoral, siendo esta la primera propuesta en Colombia. Por el poco estudio del tema, su alcance es exploratorio, se basa en un enfoque jurídico-institucional. Se utilizaron métodos cualitativos de recolección de datos (trabajo de archivo y entrevistas) y de análisis (tipologías, comparaciones, exegesis del marco legal), pero también elementos cuantitativos como análisis estadísticos.

Elections 2.0 : reflections on the 2010 federal election and the future of Australian electoral law

This article analyses the 2010 federal election and the impact the internet and social media had on electoral law, and what this may mean for electoral law in the future. Four electoral law issues arising out of the 2010 election as a result of the internet are considered, including online enrolment, regulation of online advertising and comment, fundraising and the role of lobby groups, especially when it comes to crowdsourcing court challenges. Finally, the article offers some suggestions as to how the parliament and the courts should respond to these challenges.

Politicians as experts, electoral control, and fiscal restraints

We establish an argument for fiscal restraints which is based on the idea that politicians are experts in the meaning of the credence good literature. A budget maximizing politician is better informed than the electorate about the necessary spending to ensure the states ability to provide services for the economy. Voters, being able to observe the budget but not the necessary level of spending, attenuate the government’s spending level via electoral control. A fiscal restraint limits the maximum spending a government will choose if the level of spending ensuring the politicians reelection is not sufficient to ensure the state’s ability to provide services to the economy. We determine when such a fiscal restraint improves voter welfare and discuss the role of the opposition in situations where very high levels of spending are required.

Electoral behaviour in the 2010 Australian federal election

All elections are unique, but the Australian federal election of 2010 was unusual for many reasons. It came in the wake of the unprecedented ousting of the Prime Minister who had led the Australian Labor Party to a landslide victory, after eleven years in opposition, at the previous election in 2007. In a move that to many would have been unthinkable, Kevin Rudd’s increasing unpopularity within his own parliamentary party finally took its toll and in late June he was replaced by his deputy, Julia Gillard. Thus the second unusual feature of the election was that it was contested by Australia’s first female prime minister. The third unusual feature was that the election almost saw a first-term government, with a comfortable majority, defeated. Instead it resulted in a hung parliament, for the first time since 1940, and Labor scraped back into power as a minority government, supported by three independents and the first member of the Australian Greens ever to be elected to the House of Representatives. The Coalition Liberal and National opposition parties themselves had a leader of only eight months standing, Tony Abbott, whose ascension to the position had surprised more than a few. This was the context for an investigation of voting behaviour in the 2010 election....

Campaigning for street trees, Sydney Botanic Gardens, 1890s to 1920s

Between the 1890s and 1920s street trees became a more prominent feature in streetscapes across New South Wales, Australia. The Sydney Botanic Gardens, with their extensive nursery system, were responsible for supplying seedlings to councils and municipalities for use as street trees. As such, this institution was a primary mover of what a street tree should be, how they should be used and what plants were best suited to this particular use in urban environments. This paper analyses the nurturing of this use of street trees by the Sydney Botanic Gardens and the Director Joseph Maiden. This institution was a place that moved not just stock and seedlings, but ideas about how nature's inclusion into urban environments had the capacity to influence and enhance the cultivation of civilised citizens. This was affected through access to transnational resources available to the Sydney Botanic Gardens.

The disenfranchisement of prisoners : Roach v Electoral Commissioner & Anor - modernity v feudalism

David Brown takes a road trip to Canberra for the Roach fixture at the High Court where modernity is attempting a fight-back against the resurrection of civil death. With echoes of Hunter S Thompson as rugby league follower, the author recounts a trip to Canberra to observe a case in which Vickie Lee Roach, an Indigenous woman prisoner, challenged (successfully as it later turns out) the Howard government's 2006 legislation disenfranchising all serving prisoners.

May the best Tweeter win : The Twitter strategies of key campaign accounts in the 2012 US election

The 2008 US election has been heralded as the first presidential election of the social media era, but took place at a time when social media were still in a state of comparative infancy; so much so that the most important platform was not Facebook or Twitter, but the purpose-built campaign site my.barackobama.com, which became the central vehicle for the most successful electoral fundraising campaign in American history. By 2012, the social media landscape had changed: Facebook and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Twitter are now well-established as the leading social media platforms in the United States, and were used extensively by the campaign organisations of both candidates. As third-party spaces controlled by independent commercial entities, however, their use necessarily differs from that of home-grown, party-controlled sites: from the point of view of the platform itself, a @BarackObama or @MittRomney is technically no different from any other account, except for the very high follower count and an exceptional volume of @mentions. In spite of the significant social media experience which Democrat and Republican campaign strategists had already accumulated during the 2008 campaign, therefore, the translation of such experience to the use of Facebook and Twitter in their 2012 incarnations still required a substantial amount of new work, experimentation, and evaluation. This chapter examines the Twitter strategies of the leading accounts operated by both campaign headquarters: the ‘personal’ candidate accounts @BarackObama and @MittRomney as well as @JoeBiden and @PaulRyanVP, and the campaign accounts @Obama2012 and @TeamRomney. Drawing on datasets which capture all tweets from and at these accounts during the final months of the campaign (from early September 2012 to the immediate aftermath of the election night), we reconstruct the campaigns’ approaches to using Twitter for electioneering from the quantitative and qualitative patterns of their activities, and explore the resonance which these accounts have found with the wider Twitter userbase. A particular focus of our investigation in this context will be on the tweeting styles of these accounts: the mixture of original messages, @replies, and retweets, and the level and nature of engagement with everyday Twitter followers. We will examine whether the accounts chose to respond (by @replying) to the messages of support or criticism which were directed at them, whether they retweeted any such messages (and whether there was any preferential retweeting of influential or – alternatively – demonstratively ordinary users), and/or whether they were used mainly to broadcast and disseminate prepared campaign messages. Our analysis will highlight any significant differences between the accounts we examine, trace changes in style over the course of the final campaign months, and correlate such stylistic differences with the respective electoral positioning of the candidates. Further, we examine the use of these accounts during moments of heightened attention (such as the presidential and vice-presidential debates, or in the context of controversies such as that caused by the publication of the Romney “47%” video; additional case studies may emerge over the remainder of the campaign) to explore how they were used to present or defend key talking points, and exploit or avert damage from campaign gaffes. A complementary analysis of the messages directed at the campaign accounts (in the form of @replies or retweets) will also provide further evidence for the extent to which these talking points were picked up and disseminated by the wider Twitter population. Finally, we also explore the use of external materials (links to articles, images, videos, and other content on the campaign sites themselves, in the mainstream media, or on other platforms) by the campaign accounts, and the resonance which these materials had with the wider follower base of these accounts. This provides an indication of the integration of Twitter into the overall campaigning process, by highlighting how the platform was used as a means of encouraging the viral spread of campaign propaganda (such as advertising materials) or of directing user attention towards favourable media coverage. By building on comprehensive, large datasets of Twitter activity (as of early October, our combined datasets comprise some 3.8 million tweets) which we process and analyse using custom-designed social media analytics tools, and by using our initial quantitative analysis to guide further qualitative evaluation of Twitter activity around these campaign accounts, we are able to provide an in-depth picture of the use of Twitter in political campaigning during the 2012 US election which will provide detailed new insights social media use in contemporary elections. This analysis will then also be able to serve as a touchstone for the analysis of social media use in subsequent elections, in the USA as well as in other developed nations where Twitter and other social media platforms are utilised in electioneering.

Generations and turnout : The generational effect in electoral participation in Finland

The relationship between age and turnout has been curve-linear as electoral participation first increases with age, remains relatively stable throughout middle-age and then gradually declines as certain physical infirmities set in (see e.g. Milbrath 1965). Alongside this life-cycle effect in voting, recent pooled cross-sectional analyses (see e.g. Blais et al. 2004; Lyons and Alexander 2000) have shown that there is also a generational effect, referring to lasting differences in turnout between various age groups. This study firstly examines the extent to which the generational effect applies in the Finnish context. Secondly, it investigates the factors accounting for that effect. The first article, based on individual-level register data from the parliamentary elections of 1999, shows that turnout differences between the different age groups would be even larger if there were no differences in social class and education. The second article examines simultaneously the effects of age, generation and period in the Finnish parliamentary elections of 1975-2003 based on pooled data from Finnish voter barometers (N = 8,634). The results show that there is a clear life cycle, generational and period effect. The third article examines the role of political socialisation in accounting for generational differences in electoral participation. Political socialisation is defined as the learning process in which an individual adopts various values, political attitudes, and patterns of actions from his or her environment. The multivariate analysis, based on the Finnish national election study 2003 (N=1,270), indicated that if there were no differences in socialisation between the youngest and the older generations, the difference in turnout would be much larger than if only sex and socioeconomic factors are controlled for. The fourth article examines other possible factors related to generational effect in voting. The results mainly apply to the Finnish parliamentary elections of 2003 in which we have data available. The results show that the sense of duty by far accounts for the generational effect in voting. Political interest, political knowledge and non-parliamentary participation also narrowed the differences in electoral participation between the youngest and the second youngest generations. The implication of the findings is that the lower turnout among the current youth is not a passing phenomenon that will diminish with age. Considering voting a civic duty and understanding the meaning of collective action are both associated with the process of political socialisation which therefore has an important role concerning the generational effect in turnout.

Campaigning in Heterogeneous Social Networks: Optimal Control of SI Information Epidemics

We study the optimal control problem of maximizing the spread of an information epidemic on a social network. Information propagation is modeled as a susceptible-infected (SI) process, and the campaign budget is fixed. Direct recruitment and word-of-mouth incentives are the two strategies to accelerate information spreading (controls). We allow for multiple controls depending on the degree of the nodes/individuals. The solution optimally allocates the scarce resource over the campaign duration and the degree class groups. We study the impact of the degree distribution of the network on the controls and present results for Erdos-Renyi and scale-free networks. Results show that more resource is allocated to high-degree nodes in the case of scale-free networks, but medium-degree nodes in the case of Erdos-Renyi networks. We study the effects of various model parameters on the optimal strategy and quantify the improvement offered by the optimal strategy over the static and bang-bang control strategies. The effect of the time-varying spreading rate on the controls is explored as the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign may change over time. We show the existence of a solution to the formulated optimal control problem, which has nonlinear isoperimetric constraints, using novel techniques that is general and can be used in other similar optimal control problems. This work may be of interest to political, social awareness, or crowdfunding campaigners and product marketing managers, and with some modifications may be used for mitigating biological epidemics.

Cost effective campaigning in social networks

Campaigners are increasingly using online social networking platforms for promoting products, ideas and information. A popular method of promoting a product or even an idea is incentivizing individuals to evangelize the idea vigorously by providing them with referral rewards in the form of discounts, cash backs, or social recognition. Due to budget constraints on scarce resources such as money and manpower, it may not be possible to provide incentives for the entire population, and hence incentives need to be allocated judiciously to appropriate individuals for ensuring the highest possible outreach size. We aim to do the same by formulating and solving an optimization problem using percolation theory. In particular, we compute the set of individuals that are provided incentives for minimizing the expected cost while ensuring a given outreach size. We also solve the problem of computing the set of individuals to be incentivized for maximizing the outreach size for given cost budget. The optimization problem turns out to be non trivial; it involves quantities that need to be computed by numerically solving a fixed point equation. Our primary contribution is, that for a fairly general cost structure, we show that the optimization problems can be solved by solving a simple linear program. We believe that our approach of using percolation theory to formulate an optimization problem is the first of its kind. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

La información televisiva en campaña electoral. Análisis de las noticias en ETB y TVE durante las elecciones municipales y autonómicas de mayo de 2003

401 p.

A campanha presidencial de 2006 e as estratégias utilizadas por eleitores para o processamento das informações políticas

Esta é uma tese centrada nas estratégias empregadas pelos eleitores para o processamento das informações sobre a política, no contexto da campanha presidencial brasileira de 2006. Propusemos, neste trabalho, um modelo estatístico para o processamento da informação sobre a política, construído a partir da contribuição de estudos realizados nos campos de conhecimento das ciências sociais, da economia, da psicologia cognitiva e da comunicação, e, sobretudo, a partir das evidências extraídas de nosso desenho de pesquisa. Este combinou métodos qualitativo, quantitativo e a análise das estratégias retóricas empregadas por candidatos e partidos políticos no Horário Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral (HGPE), elemento dinâmico de nosso estudo, por sintetizar os fluxos de informação no ambiente das campanhas políticas. Esse conjunto de abordagens metodológicas, foi empregado para o estudo de caso do eleitor belo-horizontino, inserido no complexo ambiente informacional das campanhas presidenciais. Com informações incompletas, o eleitor precisou escolher em quem acreditar, lidando com a incerteza dos resultados do pleito e com a incerteza em relação ao comportamento futuro dos atores, cioso de que as retóricas da campanha estavam orientadas para a persuasão. O nosso trabalho procurou mapear as estratégias empregadas pelos eleitores na seleção de temas do debate para a atenção e para o processamento das novas informações sobre a política, adquiridas em interações múltiplas ao longo da campanha. Essa complexa tarefa foi destinada à escolha de por quem ser persuadido. Procuramos responder, neste trabalho, a partir das evidências empíricas, várias preocupações deste campo de conhecimento, entre elas: 1) Em meio a tantos temas abordados na disputa entre partidos e candidatos, quais deles e por que o indivíduo escolhe para prestar atenção e acreditar? 2) Que variáveis intermedeiam e qual o seu peso nesse processo de interação com as novas informações para explicar a tomada de decisão? 3) As prioridades da agenda política do eleitor se alteram ao longo da campanha? 4) Os eleitores ampliam o repertório mais geral de informação sobre a política? 5) As percepções sobre avaliação de governo e em relação aos temas prioritários da agenda do eleitor se alteram ao longo da campanha?

Representing Europe's Citizens? Electoral Institutions and the Failure of Parliamentary Representation

Scully, Roger, Farrell, David, Representing Europe's Citizens? Electoral Institutions and the Failure of Parliamentary Representation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp.xiii+230 RAE2008