Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

Shift of peak in summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and its association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation

The annual cycle of rainfall over the Korean Peninsula is marked by two peaks: one during July and the other during August. Since the mid-1970s, the maximum rainfall over the Korean Peninsula has shifted from July to August. This shift in rainfall peak was caused by a significant increase of August rainfall after the mid-1970s. The basic reason for this shift has been traced to a change in teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and August rainfall. The relationship between August rainfall over Korea and ENSO changed from 1954-1975 (PI) to 1976-2002 (PII). The variability of August rainfall was significantly associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation over the eastern equatorial Pacific during PI, but this relationship is absent during the PII period. In El Nino years during PI, low-level westerly and southerly wind anomalies are dominant around the East China Sea, which relates to strong August rainfall. In La Nina years during PI, easterly and northerly wind anomalies are dominant. During the PII period, however, westerly and southerly wind anomalies around the East China Sea were responsible for the high August rainfall over the East Asian region, even though La Nina SST conditions were in effect over the eastern Pacific.

The effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on Ashes series results in Australia

An analysis of the results of those "Ashes" cricket test matches between England and Australia which are played in Australia suggests a correlation between these results and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In those years with a positive ENSO, results favour Australia, whereas in those years with a negative ENSO, results are more even. A potential mechanism is presented for this apparent correlation.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation

This 20th anniversary edition of PAGES news explores the elusive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a paleo-perspective. The initiative for this special section came out of a 2011 PMIP workshop. In a mini section, a newly introduced format in the PAGES newsletter, four articles on data assimilation address methods of combining observations and model simulations. Finally, this newsletter also features several reports on the 2013 2nd Young Scientists Meeting held in Goa, India.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and forest fires in the southwestern United States

Fire statistics (area burned) and fire-scar chronologies from tree rings show reduced fire activity during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in forests of Arizona and New Mexico. This relationship probably stems from increased fuel moisture after a wet winter and spring, but also could involve climatic controls on lightning activity at the onset of the monsoon season.

Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Nino Southern Oscillation case study

The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997–1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Variation in yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) catches related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events at the entrance to the Gulf of California

Fishery catch data on yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) were examined to study the effects of El Niño events between 1990 and 1999 for an area in the northeastern tropical Pacific (18−24°N, 112−104°W). The data were extracted from a database of logbook records from the Mexican tuna purse-seine f leet. Latitudinal distribution of the catches increased from south to north for the 10-year period. Highest catches and effort were concentrated between 22°N and 23°N. This area accumulated 48% of the total catch over the 10year period. It was strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. At least two periods of exceptionally high catches occurred following El Niño events in 1991 and 1997. Peaks of catches were triggered by the arrival of positive anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) to the area. A delay of two to four months was observed between the occurrence of maximum SST anomalies at the equator and peaks of catch. Prior to these two events, negative SST anomalies were the dominant feature in the study area and catch was extremely low. This trend of negative SST anomalies with low catches followed by positive SST anomalies and high catches may be attributed to northward yellowfin tuna migration patterns driven by El Niño forcing, a result that contrasts with the known behavior of decreasing relative abundance of these tuna after El Niño events in the eastern Pacific. However, this decrease in relative abundance may be the result of a local or subregional effect.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific

Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947-1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of ~2-3, ~4.5, ~7 and ~9-12-year cycles in the diatom record and an w11e13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns. Sediment grain size could not be correlated to the sunspot cycle although a peak in the grain size data centered around the mid-1970s may be related to the 1976-1977 Pacific climate shift, which occurred when the PDO index shifted from negative (cool conditions) to positive (warm conditions). Additional evidence of the PDO regime shift is found in wavelet and cross-wavelet results for Skeletonema costatum, a weakly silicified variant of S. costatum, annual precipitation and April to June precipitation. Higher spring (April/May) values of the North Pacific High pressure index during sunspot minima suggest that during this time, increased cloud cover and concomitant suppression of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system led to strengthened coastal upwelling and enhanced diatom production earlier in the year. These results suggest that the 11-year solar cycle, amplified by cloud cover and upwelling changes, as well as ENSO, exert significant influence on marine primary productivity in the northeast Pacific. The expression of these cyclic phenomena in the sedimentary record were in turn modulated by the phase of PDO, as indicated by the change in period of ENSO and suppression of the solar signal in the record after the 1976-1977 regime shift. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.