Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Nino affected population of South American fur seals, Arctocephalus australis

The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750,000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However, a climatological phenomenon-the severe 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-was responsible for the decline of 72% Of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently, there is no precise information on global population size or on the species` conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality-equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories, and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

The El Nino of 1972-1973 in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Beginning in February 1972 the usual seasonal cooling of the surface water of the eastern Pacific Ocean in the region of the Peru Current and along the equator failed to develop. By July tropical coastal and equatorial island stations and ships crossing the equator were recording sea-surface temperatures which were 6° to 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) above the long-term mean. The anomalies spread over most of the eastern tropical Pacific and westward into the central equatorial Pacific through September. During October surface temperatures at coastal stations along South America were returning to normal, but in November and December 1972 temperatures rose rapidly again, with a near-record temperature anomaly of 8.1°F (4.2°C) above the long-term mean recorded at Puerto Chieama, Peru (7°42'S-79°27'W). After January 1973 sea-surface temperatures began returning to normal over most of the eastern tropical Pacific, and by March 1973 the El Nino had completed its cycle. Monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific are discussed to show the extent and magnitude of warming. Annual temperature profiles at several South American coastal and equatorial island stations are compared with temperature profiles for the 1957-1958 and 1965 EI Nino years. Characteristics of the temperature anomaly profiles at Puerto Chicama during several very warm years for the 1925-1972 period are also compared. Finally, meteorological factors contributing to a relaxation of the southeast trade winds and to the decreased unwilling along the coast of South America in 1972-1973 are examined. SPANISH: A comienzos de febrero de 1972, no se registró el enfriamiento común estacional del agua superficial del Océano Pacífico oriental en la región de la Corriente del Perú y a lo largo del ecuador. En julio las estaciones tropicales, costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales, y los barcos que cruzaban la linea ecuatorial registraron temperaturas superficiales del mar de 6° a 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) más altas que la media a largo plazo. Las anomalías se esparcieron sobre la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical, y al oeste en el Pacífico central ecuatorial. En octubre, las temperaturas superficiales de las estaciones costaneras a lo largo de Sudamérica volvieron a la normalidad, pero en noviembre y diciembre de 1972, las temperaturas de nuevo ascendieron rápidamente con una anomalía de temperatura que alcanzó 8.1°F (4.2°C) sobre la media a largo plazo registrada en Puerto Chicama, Perú (7°42'S-79°27'W). Después de enero 1973 las temperaturas de la superficie del mar volvieron rápidamente a la normalidad en la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical y en marzo de 1973 el Niño había completado su ciclo. Se discuten las anomalías mensuales de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico oriental tropical para indicar la extensión y magnitud del calentamiento. Los perfiles anuales de temperatura en varias estaciones costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales sudamericanas se comparan con los perfiles de temperatura de los años en que ocurrió el Niño en 1957-1958 y 1965. Se comparan también las características de los perfiles de las anomalías de temperatura en Puerto Chicama durante varios años muy cálidos para el período de 1925-1972. Finalmente, se examinan los factores meteorológicos que contribuyen al debilitamiento de los vientos alisios del sudeste y a la reducción del afloramiento a lo largo de la costa sudamericana en 1972-1973. (PDF contains 48 pages.)

El Nino Suppresses Aantarctic Warming

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004], and provides new evidence that the terrestrial cooling is caused by a simultaneous ENSO driven change in atmospheric circulation, sourced in the Amundsen Sea and West Antarctica.

Environmental aspects and challenges of oilseed produced biodiesel in Southeast Asia

Research on alternative fuel for the vehemently growing number of automotivesis intensified due to environmental reasons rather than turmoil in energy price and supply. From the policy and steps to emphasis the use of biofuel by governments all around the world, this can be comprehended that biofuel have placed itself as a number one substitute for fossil fuels. These phenomena made Southeast Asia a prominent exporter of biodiesel. But thrust in biodiesel production from oilseeds of palm and Jatropha curcas in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand is seriously threatening environmental harmony. This paper focuses on this critical issue of biodiesels environmental impacts, policy, standardization of this region as well as on the emission of biodiesel in automotive uses. To draw a bottom line on feasibilities of different feedstock of biodiesel, a critical analysis on oilseed yield rate, land use, engine emissions and oxidation stability is reviewed. Palm oil based biodiesel is clearly ahead in all these aspects of feasibility, except in the case of NOx where it lags from conventional petro diesel.

Effect of depithing on the safety and environmental aspects of bagasse stockpiling

Large scale sugarcane bagasse storage in uncovered stockpiles has the potential to result in adverse impacts on the environment and surrounding communities through hazards associated with nuisance dust, groundwater seepage, spontaneous combustion and generation of contaminated leachates. Managing these hazards will assist in improved health and safety outcomes for factory staff and reduced potential environmental impacts on surrounding communities. Removal of the smaller fibres (pith) from bagasse prior to stockpiling reduced the dust number of bagasse by 50% and modelling suggests peak ground level PM10 dust emissions would reduce by 70%. Depithed bagasse has much lower water holding capacity (~43%) than whole bagasse. This experimental and modelling study investigated the physical properties of depithed and whole bagasse. Dust dispersion modelling was undertaken to determine the likely effects associated with storage of whole and depithed sugarcane bagasse.