Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Shift of peak in summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and its association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation

The annual cycle of rainfall over the Korean Peninsula is marked by two peaks: one during July and the other during August. Since the mid-1970s, the maximum rainfall over the Korean Peninsula has shifted from July to August. This shift in rainfall peak was caused by a significant increase of August rainfall after the mid-1970s. The basic reason for this shift has been traced to a change in teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and August rainfall. The relationship between August rainfall over Korea and ENSO changed from 1954-1975 (PI) to 1976-2002 (PII). The variability of August rainfall was significantly associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation over the eastern equatorial Pacific during PI, but this relationship is absent during the PII period. In El Nino years during PI, low-level westerly and southerly wind anomalies are dominant around the East China Sea, which relates to strong August rainfall. In La Nina years during PI, easterly and northerly wind anomalies are dominant. During the PII period, however, westerly and southerly wind anomalies around the East China Sea were responsible for the high August rainfall over the East Asian region, even though La Nina SST conditions were in effect over the eastern Pacific.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

All flavours of El Nino have similar early subsurface origins

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, characterized by anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific, affects climate across the globe(1). El Ninos occur every 2-7 years, whereas the El Nino/Southern Oscillation itself varies on decadal timescales in frequency and amplitude, with a different spatial pattern of surface anomalies(2) each time the tropical Pacific undergoes a regime shift. Recent work has shown that Bjerknes feedback(3,4) (coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean through changes in equatorial winds driven by changes in sea surface temperature owing to suppression of equatorial upwelling in the east Pacific) is not necessary(5) for the development of an El Nino. Thus it is unclear what remains constant through regimes and is crucial for producing the anomalies recognized as El Nino. Here we show that the subsurface process of discharging warm waters always begins in the boreal summer/autumn of the year before the event (up to 18 months before the peak) independent of regimes, identifying the discharge process as fundamental to the El Nino onset. It is therefore imperative that models capture this process accurately to further our theoretical understanding, improve forecasts and predict how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation may respond to climate change.

El Nino and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Nino. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120-150E, 20-30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average. We find that during El Nino, when the convection over the equatorial central Pacific intensifies, there is a high propensity for intensification of convection over NWTP. Thus, El Nino appears to have an impact on the rainfall over the Indian region via its impact on the convection over the West Pacific, particularly over NWTP. This occurred in June 2014, which suggests that the large deficit in June 2014, could be primarily attributed to the El Nino acting via intensification of convection over NWTP.

Survey of El Nino 1957-58 in its relation to tropical pacific meteorology

ENGLISH: The survey aims at demonstrating the close relationship between anomalies of sea temperature observed along the tropical Pacific coast of the Americas and those observed in the oceanwide tropical belt. The survey also covers the variations, from 1952 to the present, of the trade-wind circulations which prove to be responsible for the major part of the anomalies in sea surface temperature. Finally, the thermal feedback effects of the oceanic anomalies upon the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere are treated in a preliminary fashion. SPANISH: El estudio trata de demostrar la estrecha relación que existe entre las anomalías observadas de la temperatura del mar a lo largo de la costa tropical de las Américas y las observadas en la faja tropical de todo el océano. El estudio incluye también las variaciones, desde 1952 hasta el presente, de la circulación de los vientos alisios que demuestra ser responsable por la mayor parte de las anomalías de temperatura de la superficie del mar. Finalmente los efectos termales de las anomalías oceánicas sobre la circulación en gran escala de la atmósfera son tratados en forma preliminar. (PDF contains 62 pages.)

The El Nino of 1972-1973 in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Beginning in February 1972 the usual seasonal cooling of the surface water of the eastern Pacific Ocean in the region of the Peru Current and along the equator failed to develop. By July tropical coastal and equatorial island stations and ships crossing the equator were recording sea-surface temperatures which were 6° to 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) above the long-term mean. The anomalies spread over most of the eastern tropical Pacific and westward into the central equatorial Pacific through September. During October surface temperatures at coastal stations along South America were returning to normal, but in November and December 1972 temperatures rose rapidly again, with a near-record temperature anomaly of 8.1°F (4.2°C) above the long-term mean recorded at Puerto Chieama, Peru (7°42'S-79°27'W). After January 1973 sea-surface temperatures began returning to normal over most of the eastern tropical Pacific, and by March 1973 the El Nino had completed its cycle. Monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific are discussed to show the extent and magnitude of warming. Annual temperature profiles at several South American coastal and equatorial island stations are compared with temperature profiles for the 1957-1958 and 1965 EI Nino years. Characteristics of the temperature anomaly profiles at Puerto Chicama during several very warm years for the 1925-1972 period are also compared. Finally, meteorological factors contributing to a relaxation of the southeast trade winds and to the decreased unwilling along the coast of South America in 1972-1973 are examined. SPANISH: A comienzos de febrero de 1972, no se registró el enfriamiento común estacional del agua superficial del Océano Pacífico oriental en la región de la Corriente del Perú y a lo largo del ecuador. En julio las estaciones tropicales, costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales, y los barcos que cruzaban la linea ecuatorial registraron temperaturas superficiales del mar de 6° a 8°F (3.3°-4.4°C) más altas que la media a largo plazo. Las anomalías se esparcieron sobre la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical, y al oeste en el Pacífico central ecuatorial. En octubre, las temperaturas superficiales de las estaciones costaneras a lo largo de Sudamérica volvieron a la normalidad, pero en noviembre y diciembre de 1972, las temperaturas de nuevo ascendieron rápidamente con una anomalía de temperatura que alcanzó 8.1°F (4.2°C) sobre la media a largo plazo registrada en Puerto Chicama, Perú (7°42'S-79°27'W). Después de enero 1973 las temperaturas de la superficie del mar volvieron rápidamente a la normalidad en la mayoría del Pacífico oriental tropical y en marzo de 1973 el Niño había completado su ciclo. Se discuten las anomalías mensuales de las temperaturas de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico oriental tropical para indicar la extensión y magnitud del calentamiento. Los perfiles anuales de temperatura en varias estaciones costeras y de las islas ecuatoriales sudamericanas se comparan con los perfiles de temperatura de los años en que ocurrió el Niño en 1957-1958 y 1965. Se comparan también las características de los perfiles de las anomalías de temperatura en Puerto Chicama durante varios años muy cálidos para el período de 1925-1972. Finalmente, se examinan los factores meteorológicos que contribuyen al debilitamiento de los vientos alisios del sudeste y a la reducción del afloramiento a lo largo de la costa sudamericana en 1972-1973. (PDF contains 48 pages.)

Bibliography of El Nino and associated publications

ENGLISH: Citations from the fields of biological, physical and chemical oceanography, meteorology and marine fisheries are used to compile a new bibliography on El Nino phenomena and associated publications. An alphanumeric coding procedure relating this bibliography to a newly microfilmed version of the contents of this bibliography is described. SPANISH: Se emplean las anotaciones del campo biológico, físico y químico de la oceanografía, la rneteorología y la pesca marina para compilar una nueva bibliografía sobre el fenómeno del Niño, y publicaciones afines. Se describe el procedimiento de un código alfanumérico relacionando esta bibliografía a una versión recientemente microfilmada del contenido de ésta. (PDF contains 53 pages.)

The impacts of El Nino on Philippine fisheries

The El Nino phenomenon is an "anomalous climatic condition in the tropical Pacific region which occurs every two to seven years and affects the global climate". There is a greater increase in the water surface temperature of the eastern tropical and central tropical Pacific during an El Nino episode relative to that of the western tropical Pacific. The phenomenon causes fluctuations in rainfall, resulting in drought in some areas and heavy rainfall in others. During the El Nino of 1990-1992, the damage caused by the drought in the Philippines was estimated to be P4.1 billion (PhP24 = US$1). While the damage to agriculture is well documented, the impact on fisheries has not been considered. The impacts of the El Nino episode of 1997-1998 were assessed in the Philippines by the filed personnel of the Department of Agriculture and representatives of the private sector in the 15 regions of the country. Data on the losses caused by the phenomenon were obtained from interviews, surveys and reports of local government units and provincial agricultural offices for the period October 1997-June 1998. The effects of El Nino on aquaculture, marine fisheries and inland fisheries were determined.

Hydrologic variability related to El Nino in the Pacific Northwest [abstract]

A preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken to evaluate whether the effect of El Nino events is apparent in variables related to hydrologic behavior. Annual precipitation, temperature and streamflow were used for three locations in Oregon representing coastal, Willamette Valley/Cascade and eastern Oregon regions. The mean and variance for periods of El Nino occurrence vs. those with no El Nino were computed. Numerical differences were observed but were not consistent across all stations. The coastal area showed a decrease in mean precipitation and increase in mean streamflow during El Nino events. Other stations showed a positive increase in mean for both precipitation and streamflow for El Nino events. Variance of precipitation was greater in the coastal area but smaller in other areas and vice versa for streamflow during El Nino events. Statistical analyses indicated no significant differences of means, variances or distributions using nonparametric tests for El Nino vs. non-El Nino series.