Integrating predictive control and economic optimisation

In most commercially available predictive control packages, there is a separation between economic optimisation and predictive control, although both algorithms may be part of the same software system. This method is compared in this article with two alternative approaches where the economic objectives are directly included in the predictive control algorithm. Simulations are carried out using the Tennessee Eastman process model.

The Framework of Trade in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance

This paper establishes an overview of the variables and constraints that affected trade in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. It explores the origins of COMECON, the demographic and resource distribution of the member nations, and the role of trade in a centrally planned economy. The paper’s primary focus is on the emergence of a bilateral trade structure, the faulty price mechanism, and the nonconvertibility of currencies. The paper documents the origins and relationships between the constraints of trade within COMECON, and argues that ultimately, these constraints prevented COMECON from fully achieving its economic objectives.

Economic Approaches of the Internal Market. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 13/April 2008

What is ‘the’ EU internal market, as economists see it? The present BEER paper attempts to survey and help readers understand various ‘economic’ approaches to the internal market idea. The paper starts with a conceptual discussion of what ‘the’ internal market is (in an economic perspective). Six different economic meanings of the internal market are presented, with the sixth one being the economic benchmark in an ideal setting. Subsequently, the question is asked what the internal market (i.e. its proper functioning) is good for. Put differently, the internal market in the EU Treaty is a means, but a means to what? Beyond the typical economic growth objectives of the Rome Treaty (still valid today, with some qualifications), other Treaty objectives have emerged. Economists typically think in means-end relationships and the instrumental role of the internal market for Treaty objectives is far from clear. The ‘new’ Commission internal market strategy of 2007 proposes a more goal-oriented internal market policy. Such a vision is more selective in picking intermediate objectives to which ‘the’ internal market should be instrumental, but it risks to ignore the major deficits in today’s internal market: services and labour! The means-end relationships get even more problematic once one begins to scrutinise all the socio-economic objectives of the current (Amsterdam/Nice) Treaty or still other intermediate objectives. The internal market (explicitly including the relevant common regulation) then becomes a ‘jack of all trades’ for the environment, a high level of social protection, innovation or ‘Social Europe’. These means/ends relationships often are ill-specified. The final section considers the future of the internal market, by distinguishing three strategies: incremental strategies (including the new internal market strategy of November 2007); the internal market as the core of the Economic Union serving the ‘proper functioning of the monetary union’; and deepening and widening of the internal market as justified by the functional subsidiarity test. Even though the latter two would seem to be preferable from an economic point of view, they currently lack political legitimacy and are therefore unlikely to be pursued in the near future.

Transações com partes relacionadas : determinantes e impactos no desempenho das empresas

A literatura internacional que analisa os fatores impactantes das transações com partes relacionadas concentra-se no Reino Unido, nos EUA e no continente asiático, sendo o Brasil um ambiente pouco investigado. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo investigar tanto os fatores impactantes dos contratos com partes relacionadas, quanto o impacto dessas transações no desempenho das empresas brasileiras. Estudos recentes que investigaram as determinantes das transações com partes relacionadas (TPRs), assim como seus impactos no desempenho das empresas, levaram em consideração as vertentes apresentadas por Gordon, Henry e Palia (2004): (a) de conflitos de interesses, as quais apoiam a visão de que as TPRs são danosas para os acionistas minoritários, implicando expropriação da riqueza deles, por parte dos controladores (acionistas majoritários); e (b) transações eficientes que podem ser benéficas às empresas, atendendo, desse modo, aos objetivos econômicos subjacentes delas. Esta pesquisa apoia-se na vertente de conflito de interesses, com base na teoria da agência e no fato de que o cenário brasileiro apresenta ter como característica uma estrutura de propriedade concentrada e ser um país emergente com ambiente legal caracterizado pela baixa proteção aos acionistas minoritários. Para operacionalizar a pesquisa, utilizou-se uma amostra inicial composta de 70 empresas com ações listadas na BM&FBovespa, observando o período de 2010 a 2012. Os contratos relacionados foram identificados e quantificados de duas formas, de acordo com a metodologia aplicada por Kohlbeck e Mayhew (2004; 2010) e Silveira, Prado e Sasso (2009). Como principais determinantes foram investigadas proxies para captar os efeitos dos mecanismos de governança corporativa e ambiente legal, do desempenho das empresas, dos desvios entre direitos sobre controle e direitos sobre fluxo de caixa e do excesso de remuneração executiva. Também foram adicionadas variáveis de controle para isolar as características intrínsecas das firmas. Nas análises econométricas foram estimados os modelos pelos métodos de Poisson, corte transversal agrupado (Pooled-OLS) e logit. A estimação foi feita pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO), e para aumentar a robustez das estimativas econométricas, foram utilizadas variáveis instrumentais estimadas pelo método dos momentos generalizados (MMG). As evidências indicam que os fatores investigados impactam diferentemente as diversas medidas de TPRs das empresas analisadas. Verificou-se que os contratos relacionados, em geral, são danosos às empresas, impactando negativamente o desempenho delas, desempenho este que é aumentado pela presença de mecanismos eficazes de governança corporativa. Os resultados do impacto das medidas de governança corporativa e das características intrínsecas das firmas no desempenho das empresas são robustos à presença de endogeneidade com base nas regressões com variáveis instrumentais.

La reconnaissance des qualifications professionnelles comme condition à l’immigration au Québec? : cadre juridique et enjeux politiques d’une réforme de procédure en amont

Le Canada, l'Australie et l'Union européenne sont des destinations convoitées par des immigrants hautement qualifiés dont le nombre augmente chaque année. La mobilité croissante de ces travailleurs, soutenue par des politiques favorables à leur intégration à l'échelle nationale, pose des défis de grande envergure, alors que celles-ci tentent de conjuguer des objectifs économiques avec le redressement démographique à long terme. La reconnaissance des titres de compétences étrangers (RTCE) figure toujours parmi les principaux défis de cette gestion des flux migratoires, s’imposant dans les processus d'admission aux professions réglementées au Québec comme dans les autres juridictions provinciales, nationales et communautaires. Notre recherche vise à expliciter la corrélation entre le modèle de sélection économique choisi par le Québec particulièrement et la difficile intégration en emploi des nouveaux résidents permanents qualifiés. Nous examinons l’utilité de réformer la procédure administrative de la demande d’immigration en amont pour y inclure une étape obligatoire de RTCE par les organismes réglementaires compétents. Étudiant des dispositifs juridiques en vigueur à cet effet en Australie et en Union européenne, nous cherchons à déterminer si la transposition d'une telle rigueur de sélection est réaliste et souhaitable dans le contexte spécifique québécois.

La médecine génomique en santé internationale : le rôle des projets internationaux de science ouverte en génomique

Certaines applications thérapeutiques de la médecine génomique sont susceptibles de mener à une amélioration considérable de la santé des populations des pays en développement dans les années à venir. La mise en place de politiques d’innovation efficaces demeure toutefois cruciale afin d’assurer la réalisation des promesses de la révolution génomique. Dans le domaine biomédical, la commercialisation des fruits de la recherche s’est établie comme le paradigme dominant au sein du système d’innovation. Plusieurs études récentes ont cependant démontré que l’emphase mise sur la commercialisation et la protection de la propriété intellectuelle a donné lieu à des résultats décevants. Certains acteurs du système d’innovation avancent donc désormais qu’il est nécessaire d’aller au-delà de la commercialisation de la recherche et de mettre en place des politiques basées sur le paradigme de la valorisation de la recherche, qui favorise l’atteinte d’objectifs sociaux ainsi qu’économiques. L’objectif de notre mémoire est de documenter l’impact des politiques d’innovation de projets internationaux de science ouverte en génomique médicale sur le développement des capacités en recherche et développement en génomique et l’accès à la médecine génomique dans les pays en développement. Nous avons ainsi réalisé une étude de cas impliquant quatre projets internationaux de science ouverte en génomique médicale. Les résultats de notre étude de cas ont démontré que ces projets jouent un rôle important dans le développement des capacités en recherche et en développement en génomique dans les pays en développement, mais qu’ils y jouent un rôle beaucoup plus limité sur le plan de l’accès aux applications de la médecine génomique.

”Public Health Protection through Air Quality Controls”

Health is an important aspect of everybody’s life. Today, there is an increasing recognition and commitment to the pursuit of health both within government and beyond. Any attempt on the part of the " State to protect and promote people’s health, in turn, must be accompanied by effective controls on air quality, as air constitutes ‘ one of the important elements of man’s life and the consequences of air pollution covers a very wide spectrum ranging from material ---damage to personal discomfort and illness. The broad social and economic objectives adumbrated in the Directive Principles of State Policy including the commitment to improve public health underlying in Article 47 and the obligation to preserve and protect-the natural environment cast under Article 48A of the Constitution are being used as versatile weapons by the State to regulate the public health scenario. Preservation and maintenance of air quality is a significant area within the sphere of public health, where the regulatory arm of the law is not adequately touched and in this arena urgent State intervention through legislative and administrative action is called for in the well-being of the society. Judiciary also plays a pivotal role in this arena in the larger interest of the society and for the benefit of the present and future generations. The research study is an attempt to analyze how far the existing legal system, for maintaining air quality and in controlling air pollution, is effective in protecting public health. The study also analyzes the limitations of the control mechanisms. The study focuses on industrial air pollution, indoor and personal air pollution, vehicular pollution and noise pollution which are today appearing as the major public health hazards affecting the air quality. However, this is not to overlook the importance of controls required under other areas of public health.

Gestaltpädagogische Elemente in der Berufspädagogik. Potentielle Erträge gestaltpädagogischer Ansätze für die berufliche Bildung. Konzepte, Fundierung, Realisierungsformen.

Gestaltpädagogische Elemente in der Berufspädagogik Potentielle Erträge gestaltpädagogischer Ansätze für die berufliche Bildung - Konzepte, Fundierung, Realisierungsformen - Zusammenfassung: Berufsausbilder, Berufsschullehrer und Trainer in der Aus- und Weiterbildung werden heute mit vielfältigen Veränderungen konfrontiert. Aufgrund des Technikeinsatzes zeigt sich in vie-len Unternehmen ein Wandel der beruflich organisierten Arbeit. Die wirtschaftlichen, techni-schen und sozialen Systemzusammenhänge werden zunehmend komplexer, dynamischer, enger vernetzt und normativ unbestimmter. Die technologische Entwicklung, vor allem der Kommunikationsmedien, hat eine Temposteigerung der Informationsübermittlung zur Folge, die gleichzeitig das Wissen erhöht. Mit der Forderung nach Schlüsselqualifikationen und der Wiederentdeckung ganzheitlicher Arbeitssituationen ist das Bestreben nach Bildungskonzep-ten verbunden, die mit der Herausbildung von Kompetenzen, wie vernetztes, system- und handlungsbezogenes Denken in komplexen Kontexten, Abstraktionsvermögen, systemati-sches Verständnis von Organisationsinterdependenzen, Selbstständigkeit, Selbstverantwor-tung, soziale, methodische und kommunikative Kompetenz und Innovationskraft korrespon-dieren. Unter dem Blickwinkel der Gestaltpädagogik fällt auf, dass die Berufspädagogik Methoden und Techniken in der betrieblichen Aus- und Weiterbildung nutzt, die wesentliche Elemente der Gestaltpädagogik enthalten. Eine konkrete theoretische Fundierung und Einbettung in die Berufspädagogik fehlt jedoch bisher. Die primäre Zielsetzung der Arbeit ist, die theoretischen Grundlagen der Gestaltpädagogik herauszuarbeiten und sie mit der Berufspädagogik in Verbindung zu bringen. An Beispielen wird aufgezeigt, wie gestaltpädagogische Aspekte in die betriebliche Aus- und Weiterbildung einfließen. Dabei werden unter anderem auch die Grenzen und Potentiale der Gestaltpädago-gik für die Berufspädagogik betrachtet. Die theoretische und praktische Relevanz der Arbeit ergibt sich daraus, dass erstmals berufs-pädagogische Vorgehensweisen der Praxis im Hinblick auf gestaltpädagogische Aspekte un-tersucht wurden. Die wesentlichen Forschungsergebnisse dieser Arbeit lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: In der betrieblichen Aus- und Weiterbildung kommen Methoden und Vorgehensweisen zum Einsatz, die oberflächlich betrachtet gestaltpädagogischen Charakter haben. Jedoch werden die gestaltpädagogischen Grundgedanken, wie z.B. eine ganzheitlich umfassende Persönlich-keitsentwicklung, persönlich bedeutsames Lernen, Förderung der sozialen Interaktionsfähig-keit oder die Förderung der Autonomie in der betrieblichen Bildungsarbeit auf ein Minimum reduziert. Die gestaltpädagogischen Methoden und Vorgehensweisen werden überwiegend auf ökonomische Zwecke hin ausgerichtet und funktionalisiert eingesetzt. Man kann sagen, dass sich die betriebliche Praxis mit der Aneinanderreihung von kreativen Übungen zufrieden gibt, und eine Tendenz zu erlebnisaktivierenden Vorgehensweisen zu erkennen ist.

Novel developments in process optimisation using predictive control

In industrial practice, constrained steady state optimisation and predictive control are separate, albeit closely related functions within the control hierarchy. This paper presents a method which integrates predictive control with on-line optimisation with economic objectives. A receding horizon optimal control problem is formulated using linear state space models. This optimal control problem is very similar to the one presented in many predictive control formulations, but the main difference is that it includes in its formulation a general steady state objective depending on the magnitudes of manipulated and measured output variables. This steady state objective may include the standard quadratic regulatory objective, together with economic objectives which are often linear. Assuming that the system settles to a steady state operating point under receding horizon control, conditions are given for the satisfaction of the necessary optimality conditions of the steady-state optimisation problem. The method is based on adaptive linear state space models, which are obtained by using on-line identification techniques. The use of model adaptation is justified from a theoretical standpoint and its beneficial effects are shown in simulations. The method is tested with simulations of an industrial distillation column and a system of chemical reactors.

Programa alfabetização solidária: um estudo sobre a experiência no município de Lagoa de Pedras/RN (1997 - 2003)

The educational reform of the 90 s was tainted by the objectives of the fiscal adjustments, resulting in the redefinition of the state s role in the financing and offering of teaching services, and bringing about a shuffling of the responsibility between the public and private sectors to promote education to young people and adults. The 90 s also highlighted the proliferation of providers and the multiplication of Educational Programs for Youths and Adults (EJA), implemented through partnerships between governmental and nongovernmental agencies. During this period of time, the agenda of educational responsibilities concerning analphabetism was organized in a process of decentralized of the state, with the following political, social, and economic objectives: to reduce the public deficit, increasing public savings and the financial capacity of the state to concentrate resources in areas considered indispensable to direct intervention; to increase the efficiency of the social services moffered or funded by the state, giving citizens more at a lower cost, and spreading services to more remote areas, expanding access to reach those most in need; to increase the participation of citizens in public management, stimulating communitarian acts as well as developing efforts towards the effective coordination of public figures in the implementation of associated social services. Thus, Assistance Programs co-financed by the government try to deal with the problem of analphabetism. Within the sphere of the 90 s educational policy decentralization, we come to see how the agenda dedicated to the reduction of analphabetism was formed by the Solidarity Alphabetization Program (PAS). Between 1997 and 2003, the latter agenda s decentralizing proposal was integrated in the management partnership for the operationalization of tasks and resources faced with the execution of the formal objectives. In this study, we identify the dimensions of the implantation and progress of the tasks carried out by PAS, in the municipality of Lagoa de Pedras/RN. However, we consider these Programs to assist in the process without guaranteeing the reduction of the causes or substituting the responsibility of the system once the monetary resources for program maintenance provided by the partners is exhausted

Comércio internacional e meio ambiente: estímulo à produção sustentável ou mero protecionismo comercial a posição do Brasil em dois casos de litígio

The World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1994 as a result of the Uruguay Round, and has as its principal aim advocate for the maintenance of free trade between nations. The preamble of its Constitutive Agreement specifically cites as an institution the goal of achieving sustainable development and the pursuit of protecting and preserving the environment, bringing into the sphere of world trade the idea that concern for the environmental cause is not restricted only the group of environmentalists, but rather has entered the economic landscape in a way not only ideological, but also pragmatic. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1947, part of the GATT 1994, contains a device that allows the adoption of trade restrictive measures, provided that such measures aimed at protecting the environment - Article XX. The Settlement Body (DSB) is part of the WTO and acts in dissolving disputes between the countries motivated by trade. It examines two cases where countries have imposed restrictive trade measures with environmental justification. The first case was closed in 1996, with award of damages given to Brazil, on the breakdown of U.S. environmental legislation imposed on imported gasoline from Brazil - and the second, begun in 2005 and closed in 2007, coming out victorious again Brazil is on the import ban on retreaded tires to Brazil. The objective is to answer the question: how the environment is treated in the midst of trade discussions - which is aimed at its protection or its use with economic objectives in disguise? For the preparation of this work, extensive documentary research was undertaken with the virtual site of the WTO to review the entire production of legal cases and subsequent analysis of the key issue for the work, and literature of authors who have studied the tense relationship between trade international environment. The first case, it could be seen that the political movement performed by the U.S. with the aim of achieving acceptable standards of air quality was an institutional effort to ensure the quality of air, and thus would be inappropriate to say that the regulation of gasoline was merely a disguised trade barrier.However, a careful analysis of the implementation and operation of gasoline regulation may reveal intentions disguised trade and U.S. environmental argument did not hold. The weight of this environment was relegated, since there were clearly outside interests to the environmental cause. The second case, it was realized that, despite clear attempts by the EC to promote ecological dumping, send when brought to Brazil, supposedly a country with weaker environmental structure on surveillance, a residue that, pursuant to internal policies, as could not be sent to their own landfills, the Brazilian discourse remained focused on the environmental cause, and this sort there was the existence of disguised trade barriers, but of importance, at least a priori, the discussion of foreign forces on the environment environment because there is no way to legally justify the reversal of the total understanding of the first judging body, the sight of all the arguments presented by Brazil and the nonsubmission of new facts upon appeal. Still, quite heartening to reflect on the role of trade liberalization on the environment in general, because, while they do not reach a definitive conclusion will reveal positions in both directions, both for and against, the that only adds to the discussions and makes this a very fertile topic for future research

Sustainable urban energy planning: The case study of a tropical city

The urbanization of modern societies has imposed to the planners and decision-makers a more precise attention to facts not considered before. Several aspects, such as the energy availability and the deleterious effect of pollution on the populations, must be considered in the policy decisions of cities urbanization. The current paradigm presents centralized power stations supplying a city, and a combination of technologies may compose the energy mix of a country, such as thermal power plants, hydroelectric plants, wind systems and solar-based systems, with their corresponding emission pattern. A goal programming multi-objective optimization model is presented for the electric expansion analysis of a tropical city, and also a case study for the city of Guaratinguetá, Brazil, considering a particular wind and solar radiation patterns established according to actual data and modeled via the time series analysis method. Scenarios are proposed and the results of single environmental objective, single economic objective and goal programming multi-objective modeling are discussed. The consequences of each dispatch decision, which considers pollutant emission exportation to the neighborhood or the need of supplementing electricity by purchasing it from the public electric power grid, are discussed. The results revealed energetic dispatch for the alternatives studied and the optimum environmental and economic solution was obtained. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Towards a new balance of trade in agriculture

Trade in agriculture is linked to a whole range of economic, environmental, societal and future interests. For this reason, international regulation of trade in agricultural goods is highly contentious. While mainly directed towards an opening of markets, the WTO Agreement on Agriculture also has some entry points for ‘non trade concerns’. However, the agreement still looks like a casual patchwork that allows rather unsystematic ally for exemptions, without explicitly exposing the grounds that allow for them. The question arises of how the agreement could be drafted in a more structured way, in order to make sure that the economic objectives are efficiently pursued, and at the same time that human rights and environmental concerns are adequately taken account of? The concept of sustainable development provides for a methodical ‘seven step’ framework that gives guidance on integrated decision making processes. In this paper, this framework is partially applied to the Agreement on Agriculture. This working paper served as an introductory note to a brainstorming workshop on the subject that took place on 27 March 2009 at the World Trade Institute, University of Bern.

A methodology proposal to obtain operational parameter forecasts and operational risk assessment in container terminals

Las terminales de contenedores son sistemas complejos en los que un elevado número de actores económicos interactúan para ofrecer servicios de alta calidad bajo una estricta planificación y objetivos económicos. Las conocidas como "terminales de nueva generación" están diseñadas para prestar servicio a los mega-buques, que requieren tasas de productividad que alcanzan los 300 movimientos/ hora. Estas terminales han de satisfacer altos estándares dado que la competitividad entre terminales es elevada. Asegurar la fiabilidad de las planificaciones del atraque es clave para atraer clientes, así como reducir al mínimo el tiempo que el buque permanece en el puerto. La planificación de las operaciones es más compleja que antaño, y las tolerancias para posibles errores, menores. En este contexto, las interrupciones operativas deben reducirse al mínimo. Las principales causas de dichas perturbaciones operacionales, y por lo tanto de incertidumbre, se identifican y caracterizan en esta investigación. Existen una serie de factores que al interactuar con la infraestructura y/o las operaciones desencadenan modos de fallo o parada operativa. Los primeros pueden derivar no solo en retrasos en el servicio sino que además puede tener efectos colaterales sobre la reputación de la terminal, o incluso gasto de tiempo de gestión, todo lo cual supone un impacto para la terminal. En el futuro inmediato, la monitorización de las variables operativas presenta gran potencial de cara a mejorar cualitativamente la gestión de las operaciones y los modelos de planificación de las terminales, cuyo nivel de automatización va en aumento. La combinación del criterio experto con instrumentos que proporcionen datos a corto y largo plazo es fundamental para el desarrollo de herramientas que ayuden en la toma de decisiones, ya que de este modo estarán adaptadas a las auténticas condiciones climáticas y operativas que existen en cada emplazamiento. Para el corto plazo se propone una metodología con la que obtener predicciones de parámetros operativos en terminales de contenedores. Adicionalmente se ha desarrollado un caso de estudio en el que se aplica el modelo propuesto para obtener predicciones de la productividad del buque. Este trabajo se ha basado íntegramente en datos proporcionados por una terminal semi-automatizada española. Por otro lado, se analiza cómo gestionar, evaluar y mitigar el efecto de las interrupciones operativas a largo plazo a través de la evaluación del riesgo, una forma interesante de evaluar el effecto que eventos inciertos pero probables pueden generar sobre la productividad a largo plazo de la terminal. Además se propone una definición de riesgo operativo junto con una discusión de los términos que representan con mayor fidelidad la naturaleza de las actividades y finalmente, se proporcionan directrices para gestionar los resultados obtenidos. Container terminals are complex systems where a large number of factors and stakeholders interact to provide high-quality services under rigid planning schedules and economic objectives. The socalled next generation terminals are conceived to serve the new mega-vessels, which are demanding productivity rates up to 300 moves/hour. These terminals need to satisfy high standards because competition among terminals is fierce. Ensuring reliability in berth scheduling is key to attract clients, as well as to reduce at a minimum the time that vessels stay the port. Because of the aforementioned, operations planning is becoming more complex, and the tolerances for errors are smaller. In this context, operational disturbances must be reduced at a minimum. The main sources of operational disruptions and thus, of uncertainty, are identified and characterized in this study. External drivers interact with the infrastructure and/or the activities resulting in failure or stoppage modes. The later may derive not only in operational delays but in collateral and reputation damage or loss of time (especially management times), all what implies an impact for the terminal. In the near future, the monitoring of operational variables has great potential to make a qualitative improvement in the operations management and planning models of terminals that use increasing levels of automation. The combination of expert criteria with instruments that provide short- and long-run data is fundamental for the development of tools to guide decision-making, since they will be adapted to the real climatic and operational conditions that exist on site. For the short-term a method to obtain operational parameter forecasts in container terminals. To this end, a case study is presented, in which forecasts of vessel performance are obtained. This research has been entirely been based on data gathered from a semi-automated container terminal from Spain. In the other hand it is analyzed how to manage, evaluate and mitigate disruptions in the long-term by means of the risk assessment, an interesting approach to evaluate the effect of uncertain but likely events on the long-term throughput of the terminal. In addition, a definition for operational risk evaluation in port facilities is proposed along with a discussion of the terms that better represent the nature of the activities involved and finally, guidelines to manage the results obtained are provided.

Towards a new design of South American integration? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series, Special Issue January 2013

The design of South American integration is becoming different. This has been quite common in the trajectory of over six decades of initiatives aimed at generating institutional frameworks to facilitate regional integration. However, even when it has become apparent that the previous design is undergoing a new process of change, it would be difficult to predict for how long the one that is beginning to take shape will remain in effect. The experience of recent decades suggests great caution in forecasts that are optimistic about any eventual longevity. Several factors are contributing to this redesign. Some are external to the region while others are endogenous. The combination of these factors will influence the future design of South American integration. If past lessons are correctly capitalized and certain advantage is derived from the leeway provided by a decentralized international system with multiple options, we can anticipate that what will predominate in the region will be multidimensional integration agreements (with political and economic objectives at the same time) and with cross-memberships and commitments. If this were the case, the actual impact on regional governance, social and productive integration and the competitive insertion at a global scale will depend largely on the following factors: the quality and sustainability of the strategy for development and global and regional insertion of each country; the combination of a reasonable degree of flexibility and predictability in the commitments made and their corresponding ground rule, and the density of the network of cross-interests that can be achieved as a result of the respective regional integration agreements, reflected in multiple transnational social and production networks.