The industrialized countries: summary of economic forecasts for 1990-1991

Includes bibliography

The industrialized countries: summary of economic forecasts for 1991-1992

Includes bibliography

Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective.

Land use at privatized Australian airports : classification and analyses

In recent years the air transport industry has experienced unprecedented growth, driven by strong local and global economies. Whether this growth can continue in the face of anticipated oil crises; international economic forecasts and recent influenza outbreaks is yet to be seen. One thing is certain, airport owners and operators will continue to be faced with challenging environments in which to do business. In response, many airports recognize the value in diversifying their revenue streams through a variety of landside property developments within the airport boundary. In Australia it is the type and intended market of this development that is a point of contention between private airport corporations and their surrounding municipalities. The aim of this preliminary research is to identify and categorize on-airport development occurring at the twenty-two privatized Australian airports which are administered under the Airports Act [1996]. This new knowledge will assist airport and municipal planners in understanding the current extent and category of on-airport land use, allowing them to make better decisions when proposing development both within airport master plans and beyond the airport boundary in local town and municipal plans.

Engineering Fundamentals of Energy Efficiency

Using energy more efficiently is essential if carbon emissions are to be reduced. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy efficiency improvements represent the largest and least costly savings in carbon emissions, even when compared with renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. Yet, how should future priorities be directed? Should efforts be focused on light bulbs or diesel engines, insulating houses or improving coal-fired power stations? Previous attempts to assess energy efficiency options provide a useful snapshot for directing short-term responses, but are limited to only known technologies developed under current economic conditions. Tomorrow's economic drivers are not easy to forecast, and new technical solutions often present in a disruptive manner. Fortunately, the theoretical and practical efficiency limits do not vary with time, allowing the uncertainty of economic forecasts to be avoided and the potential of yet to be discovered efficient designs to be captured. This research aims to provide a rational basis for assessing all future developments in energy efficiency. The global fow of energy through technical devices is traced from fuels to final services, and presented as an energy map to convey visually the scale of energy use. An important distinction is made between conversion devices, which upgrade energy into more useable forms, and passive systems, from which energy is lost as low temperature heat, in exchange for final services. Theoretical efficiency limits are calculated for conversion devices using exergy analysis, and show a 89% potential reduction in energy use. Efforts should be focused on improving the efficiency of, in relative order: biomass burners, refrigeration systems, gas burners and petrol engines. For passive systems, practical utilisation limits are calculated based on engineering models, and demonstrate energy savings of 73% are achievable. Significant gains are found in technical solutions that increase the thermal insulation of building fabrics and reduce the mass of vehicles. The result of this work is a consistent basis for comparing efficiency options, that can enable future technical research and energy policy to be directed towards the actions that will make the most difference.

Affordable Housing in Iowa: Meeting New Challenges, 2007

Iowa faces a signifi cant challenge over the next decade. In the words of a recent report, “The state faces the danger of worker and skill gaps that could undermine its businesses, erode the earning power of its workers, and slow its economic growth.” (Iowa Works Campaign, 2006) Iowa’s economic and demographic stability depends on attracting new immigrants and slowing the departure of residents. Eroding housing affordability and quality will make this more difficult. Housing alone cannot solve the problem, but it must be part of the solution. This study examines trends in the state’s major housing markets, analyzes the achievements of housing programs in the recent past, and incorporates input from more than 80 housing experts across the state. The second part of this study (included on the attached CD) analyzes housing’s impact on the economy. We developed three major policy recommendations.

Estudo paramétrico do processo de injeção de solventes em poços horizontais para reservatórios de óleos pesados

The world has many types of oil that have a range of values of density and viscosity, these are characteristics to identify whether an oil is light, heavy or even ultraheavy. The occurrence of heavy oil has increased significantly and pointing to a need for greater investment in the exploitation of deposits and therefore new methods to recover that oil. There are economic forecasts that by 2025, the heavy oil will be the main source of fossil energy in the world. One such method is the use of solvent vaporized VAPEX which is known as a recovery method which consists of two horizontal wells parallel to each other, with a gun and another producer, which uses as an injection solvent that is vaporized in order to reduce the viscosity of oil or bitumen, facilitating the flow to the producing well. This method was proposed by Dr. Roger Butler, in 1991. The importance of this study is to analyze how the influence some operational reservoir and parameters are important in the process VAPEX, such as accumulation of oil produced in the recovery factor in flow injection and production rate. Parameters such as flow injection, spacing between wells, type of solvent to be injected, vertical permeability and oil viscosity were addressed in this study. The results showed that the oil viscosity is the parameter that showed statistically significant influence, then the choice of Heptane solvent to be injected showed a greater recovery of oil compared to other solvents chosen, considering the spacing between the wells was shown that for a greater distance between the wells to produce more oil

Democracy Reconsidered : Britain, France, Sweden, and the EU

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether some positions in democratic theory should be adjusted or abandoned in view of internationalisation; and if adjusted, how. More specifically it pursues three different aims: to evaluate various attempts to explain levels of democracy as consequences of internationalisation; to investigate whether the taking into account of internationalisation reveals any reason to reconsider what democracy is or means; and to suggest normative interpretations that cohere with the adjustments of conceptual and explanatory democratic theory made in the course of meeting the other two aims. When empirical methods are used, the scope of the study is restricted to West European parliamentary democracies and their international affairs. More particularly, the focus is on the making of budget policy in Britain, France, and Sweden after the Second World War, and recent budget policy in the European Union. The aspects of democracy empirically analysed are political autonomy, participation, and deliberation. The material considered includes parliamentary debates, official statistics, economic forecasts, elections manifestos, shadow budgets, general election turnouts, regulations of budget decision-making, and staff numbers in government and parliament budgetary divisions. The study reaches the following conclusions among others. (i) The fact that internationalisation increases the divergence between those who make and those who are affected by decisions is not by itself a democratic problem that calls for political reform. (ii) That international organisations may have authorities delegated to them from democratic states is not sufficient to justify them democratically. Democratisation still needs to be undertaken. (iii) The fear that internationalisation dissolves a social trust necessary for political deliberation within nations seems to be unwarranted. If anything, views argued by others in domestic budgetary debate are taken increasingly serious during internationalisation. (iv) The major difficulty with deliberation seems to be its inability to transcend national boundaries. International deliberation at state level has not evolved in response to internationalisation and it is undeveloped in international institutions. (v) Democratic political autonomy diminishes during internationalisation with regard to income redistribution and policy areas taken over by international organisations, but it seems to increase in public spending. (vi) In the area of budget policy-making there are no signs that governments gain power at the expense of parliaments during internationalisation. (vii) To identify crucial democratic issues in a time of internationalisation and to make room for theoretical virtues like general applicability and normative fruitfulness, democracy may be defined as a kind of politics where as many as possible decide as much as possible.

The transformation of agriculture in Ukraine: From collective farms to agroholdings. OSW Commentary No. 127, 06.02.2014

In recent years, Ukraine’s agriculture has been consistently improving and has been the only part of the country’s economy to buck the recession. According to preliminary estimates, in 2013 agricultural production increased by 13.7% - in contrast to a 4.7% decline in the industrial sector. According to official statistics, Ukraine’s industrial production was up 40% in the final months of 2013 when compared to the same period of 2012. This translated into an unexpected gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth (+3.7%) and prevented an annual drop in GDP. Crop production, and particularly the production of grain, hit a record high: in 2013, Ukraine produced 63 million tonnes of grain, outperforming its best ever harvest of 2011 (56.7 million tonnes). The value of Ukraine’s agricultural and food exports increased from US$4.3 billion in 2005 to US$17.9 billion in 2012, and currently accounts for a quarter of Ukraine’s total exports. Economic forecasts suggest that in the current marketing year (July 2013 - June 2014) Ukraine will sell more than 30 million tonnes of grain to foreign markets, making it the world’s second biggest grain exporter, after the United States.

Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession. OSW Commentary No. 96, 2012-11-21

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia. Poor economic growth is expected to result in lower than projected budget revenues, which in turn could lead to the sequestration of the budget in December. The decline evident across the key economic indicators in the second half of 2012 brings to a close a period of relative economic stability and two years of economic growth, which had been seen as a significant personal achievement of President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions. The health of the Ukrainian economy largely depends on the state of the country’s export- -oriented industries. The current economic forecasts for foreign markets are not very optimistic. It is impossible to determine whether the current economic downturn is likely to be merely temporary or whether it heralds the onset of a prolonged economic crisis. The limited capacity to deal with the growing economic problems may mean that Kiev will need to seek financial support from abroad. This is particularly significant with regard to external debt servicing, since in 2013 Ukraine will need to pay back around 9 billion USD, including over 5.5 billion USD to the International Monetary Fund. In order to overcome the recession and stabilise public finances, the government may be forced to take a series of unpopular measures, including raising the price of natural gas and utilities. These measures have been stipulated by the IMF as a condition of further financial assistance and the disbursement of the 12 billion USD stabilisation loan granted to Ukraine in July 2010. The only alternative for Western loans and economic reforms appears to be financial support from Russia. The price for Moscow’s help might however turn out to be very high, and precipitate a turn in Kiev’s foreign policy towards a gradual re-integration of former Soviet republics under Moscow-led geopolitical projects.

Iowa Spirits Price Book, July 2016

Iowa Spirits Price Book is produced monthly details of the current prices of liquors in Iowa. Formerly titled Iowa Liquor Quarterly Spirits Price Book.

ABD Promos, July 2016, Vol. 16, no.7

The ABD Promos Newsletter is produced monthly and details Division announcements, holiday schedules, broker promotions and a newly listed codes clip out section.