Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Intraplate earthquake swarm in Belo Jardim, NE Brazil: reactivation of a major Neoproterozoic shear zone (Pernambuco Lineament)

Intraplate earthquakes in stable continental areas have been explained basically by reactivation of pre-existing zones of weakness, stress concentration, or both. Zones of weakness are usually identified as sites of the last major orogeny, provinces of recent alkaline intrusions, or stretched crust in ancient rifts. However, it is difficult to identify specific zones of weakness and intraplate fault zones are not always easily correlated with known geological features. Although Northeastern Brazil is one of the most seismically active areas in the country (magnitudes 5 roughly every 5 yr), with hypocentral depths shallower than similar to 10 km and seismic zones as long as 30-40 km, no clear relationship with the known surface geology can be usually established with confidence, and a clear identification of zones of weakness has not yet been possible. Here we present the first clear case of seismic activity occurring as reactivation of an old structure in Brazil: the Pernambuco Lineament, a major Neoproterozoic shear zone. The 2004 earthquake swarm of Belo Jardim (magnitudes up to 3.1) and the recurrent activities in the nearby towns of Sao Caetano and Caruaru (magnitudes up to 4.0 and 3.8), show that the Pernambuco Lineament is a weak zone. A local seismic network showed that the Belo Jardim swarm of 2004 November occurred by normal faulting on a North dipping, E-W oriented fault plane in close agreement with the E-W trending structures within the Pernambuco Lineament. The Belo Jardim activity was concentrated in a 1.5 km (E-W) by 2 km (downdip) fault area, and average depth of 4.5 km. The nearby Caruaru activity occurs as both strike-slip and normal faulting, also consistent with local structures of the Pernambuco Lineament. The focal mechanisms of Belo Jardim, Caruaru and S. Caetano, indicate E-W compressional and N-S extensional principal stresses. The NS extension of this stress field is larger than that predicted by numerical models such as those of Coblentz & Richardson and we propose that additional factors such as flexural stresses from the nearby Sergipe-Alagoas marginal basin could also affect the current stress field in the Pernambuco Lineament.

The Sao Vicente earthquake of 2008 April and seismicity in the continental shelf off SE Brazil: further evidence for flexural stresses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Refined Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters: Methods, Applications and Scaling Relationships

The objective of this work of thesis is the refined estimations of source parameters. To such a purpose we used two different approaches, one in the frequency domain and the other in the time domain. In frequency domain, we analyzed the P- and S-wave displacement spectra to estimate spectral parameters, that is corner frequencies and low frequency spectral amplitudes. We used a parametric modeling approach which is combined with a multi-step, non-linear inversion strategy and includes the correction for attenuation and site effects. The iterative multi-step procedure was applied to about 700 microearthquakes in the moment range 1011-1014 N•m and recorded at the dense, wide-dynamic range, seismic networks operating in Southern Apennines (Italy). The analysis of the source parameters is often complicated when we are not able to model the propagation accurately. In this case the empirical Green function approach is a very useful tool to study the seismic source properties. In fact the Empirical Green Functions (EGFs) consent to represent the contribution of propagation and site effects to signal without using approximate velocity models. An EGF is a recorded three-component set of time-histories of a small earthquake whose source mechanism and propagation path are similar to those of the master event. Thus, in time domain, the deconvolution method of Vallée (2004) was applied to calculate the source time functions (RSTFs) and to accurately estimate source size and rupture velocity. This technique was applied to 1) large event, that is Mw=6.3 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (Central Italy), 2) moderate events, that is cluster of earthquakes of 2009 L’Aquila sequence with moment magnitude ranging between 3 and 5.6, 3) small event, i.e. Mw=2.9 Laviano mainshock (Southern Italy).

Earthquakes in western Iberia: improving the understanding of lithospheric deformation in a slowly deforming region

Mainland Portugal, on the southwestern edge of the European continent, is located directly north of the boundary between the Eurasian and Nubian plates. It lies in a region of slow lithospheric deformation (< 5 mm yr(-1)), which has generated some of the largest earthquakes in Europe, both intraplate (mainland) and interplate (offshore). Some offshore earthquakes are nucleated on old and cold lithospheric mantle, at depths down to 60 km. The seismicity of mainland Portugal and its adjacent offshore has been repeatedly classified as diffuse. In this paper, we analyse the instrumental earthquake catalogue for western Iberia, which covers the period between 1961 and 2013. Between 2010 and 2012, the catalogue was enriched with data from dense broad-band deployments. We show that although the plate boundary south of Portugal is diffuse, in that deformation is accommodated along several distributed faults rather than along one long linear plate boundary, the seismicity itself is not diffuse. Rather, when located using high-quality data, earthquakes collapse into well-defined clusters and lineations. We identify and characterize the most outstanding clusters and lineations of epicentres and correlate them with geophysical and tectonic features (historical seismicity, topography, geologically mapped faults, Moho depth, free-air gravity, magnetic anomalies and geotectonic units). Both onshore and offshore, clusters and lineations of earthquakes are aligned preferentially NNE-SSW and WNW-ESE. Cumulative seismic moment and epicentre density decrease from south to north, with increasing distance from the plate boundary. Only few earthquake lineations coincide with geologically mapped faults. Clusters and lineations that do not match geologically mapped faults may correspond to previously unmapped faults (e.g. blind faults), rheological boundaries or distributed fracturing inside blocks that are more brittle and therefore break more easily than neighbour blocks. The seismicity map of western Iberia presented in this article opens important questions concerning the regional seismotectonics. This work shows that the study of low-magnitude earthquakes using dense seismic deployments is a powerful tool to study lithospheric deformation in slowly deforming regions, such as western Iberia, where high-magnitude earthquakes occur with long recurrence intervals.

Multifrequency VLBI Observations of Selected Active Galactic Nuclei

In this dissertation, active galactic nuclei (AGN) are discussed, as they are seen with the high-resolution radio-astronomical technique called Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). This observational technique provides very high angular resolution (_ 10−300 = 1 milliarcsecond). VLBI observations, performed at different radio frequencies (multi-frequency VLBI), allow to penetrate deep into the core of an AGN to reveal an otherwise obscured inner part of the jet and the vicinity of the AGN’s central engine. Multi-frequency VLBI data are used to scrutinize the structure and evolution of the jet, as well as the distribution of the polarized emission. These data can help to derive the properties of the plasma and the magnetic field, and to provide constraints to the jet composition and the parameters of emission mechanisms. Also VLBI data can be used for testing the possible physical processes in the jet by comparing observational results with results of numerical simulations. The work presented in this thesis contributes to different aspects of AGN physics studies, as well as to the methodology of VLBI data reduction. In particular, Paper I reports evidence of optical and radio emission of AGN coming from the same region in the inner jet. This result was obtained via simultaneous observations of linear polarization in the optical and in radio using VLBI technique of a sample of AGN. Papers II and III describe, in detail, the jet kinematics of the blazar 0716+714, based on multi-frequency data, and reveal a peculiar kinematic pattern: plasma in the inner jet appears to move substantially faster that that in the large-scale jet. This peculiarity is explained by the jet bending, in Paper III. Also, Paper III presents a test of the new imaging technique for VLBI data, the Generalized Maximum Entropy Method (GMEM), with the observed (not simulated) data and compares its results with the conventional imaging. Papers IV and V report the results of observations of the circularly polarized (CP) emission in AGN at small spatial scales. In particular, Paper IV presents values of the core CP for 41 AGN at 15, 22 and 43 GHz, obtained with the help of the standard Gain transfer (GT) method, which was previously developed by D. Homan and J.Wardle for the calibration of multi-source VLBI observations. This method was developed for long multi-source observations, when many AGN are observed in a single VLBI run. In contrast, in Paper V, an attempt is made to apply the GT method to single-source VLBI observations. In such observations, the object list would include only a few sources: a target source and two or three calibrators, and it lasts much shorter than the multi-source experiment. For the CP calibration of a single-source observation, it is necessary to have a source with zero or known CP as one of the calibrators. If the archival observations included such a source to the list of calibrators, the GT could also be used for the archival data, increasing a list of known AGN with the CP at small spatial scale. Paper V contains also calculation of contributions of different sourced of errors to the uncertainty of the final result, and presents the first results for the blazar 0716+714.

Nonuniformity of the constitutive law parameters for shear rupture and quasistatic nucleation to dynamic rupture: a physical model of earthquake generation processes.

Based on the recent high-resolution laboratory experiments on propagating shear rupture, the constitutive law that governs shear rupture processes is discussed in view of the physical principles and constraints, and a specific constitutive law is proposed for shear rupture. It is demonstrated that nonuniform distributions of the constitutive law parameters on the fault are necessary for creating the nucleation process, which consists of two phases: (i) a stable, quasistatic phase, and (ii) the subsequent accelerating phase. Physical models of the breakdown zone and the nucleation zone are presented for shear rupture in the brittle regime. The constitutive law for shear rupture explicitly includes a scaling parameter Dc that enables one to give a common interpretation to both small scale rupture in the laboratory and large scale rupture as earthquake source in the Earth. Both the breakdown zone size Xc and the nucleation zone size L are prescribed and scaled by Dc, which in turn is prescribed by a characteristic length lambda c representing geometrical irregularities of the fault. The models presented here make it possible to understand the earthquake generation process from nucleation to unstable, dynamic rupture propagation in terms of physics. Since the nucleation process itself is an immediate earthquake precursor, deep understanding of the nucleation process in terms of physics is crucial for the short-term (or immediate) earthquake prediction.

The Role of Corals on Tsunami Dynamics in an Island Setting: A Case Study of Tutuila Island

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Une analyse en milieu de travail : Étude de cas d'une firme de sondage

[français] L’objectif de cette recherche est d’analyser l’organisation interne d’une firme de sondage sous l’angle des sphères du milieu de travail telles qu’identifiées par Bélanger, Giles et Murray (2004), soient : la gestion de la production, l’organisation du travail et la relation à l’emploi. Plus spécifiquement, nous chercherons à savoir comment se comporte la firme enquêtée face à la gestion de la flexibilité organisationnelle et quel est l’impact de celle-ci sur les trois sphères du travail. L’analyse utilise la méthodologie de l’étude de cas et fait appel à divers types de matériaux : des observations ponctuelles, des entrevues informelles et les bases de données administratives ainsi que les rapports d’évaluation des entrevues téléphoniques effectuées par les intervieweurs. De même, l’analyse des résultats utilise à la fois des méthodes plus classiques telles que les corrélations ainsi que des représentations graphiques et des analyses qualitatives. L’analyse permet de repérer une logique de fonctionnement à l’œuvre dans les différentes sphères de l’emploi : l’importante standardisation des processus de travail (dans le champ de la gestion de la production), la réduction des marges de manœuvre (dans le champ de l’organisation du travail) et la non reconnaissance de l’expertise des intervieweurs (dans le champ de la relation à l’emploi). Les contradictions repérées dans l’analyse, entre les sphères de l’emploi et les objectifs de flexibilité, montrent que les structures mises en place bloquent, dans une certaine mesure, la capacité d’initiative et d’adaptation que la flexibilité exige. La recherche a montré que ce qu’on demande aux intervieweurs est à la fois le reflet des exigences de la flexibilité, tel que constaté dans ce mémoire, mais aussi, des exigences sociales face à la méthodologie de sondage. Tout porte à déduire que celles-ci peuvent engendrer un plafonnement de la performance des employés. Mots-clés : centres d’appels, intervieweurs, firmes de sondage, flexibilité organisationnelle, gestion de la production, organisation du travail, relation à l’emploi, travail émotionnel.

The source of the 1722 Algarve earthquake: evidence from MCS and tsunami data

The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37 degrees 01'N, 7 degrees 49'W.

INTEGRAL and XMM-Newton observations towards the unidentified MeV source GRO J1411-64.

The COMPTEL unidentified source GRO J1411-64 was observed by INTEGRAL, and its central part, also by XMM-Newton. The data analysis shows no hint for new detections at hard X-rays. The upper limits in flux herein presented constrain the energy spectrum of whatever was producing GRO J1411-64, imposing, in the framework of earlier COMPTEL observations, the existence of a peak in power output located somewhere between 300-700 keV for the so-called low state. The Circinus Galaxy is the only source detected within the 4$\sigma$ location error of GRO J1411-64, but can be safely excluded as the possible counterpart: the extrapolation of the energy spectrum is well below the one for GRO J1411-64 at MeV energies. 22 significant sources (likelihood $> 10$) were extracted and analyzed from XMM-Newton data. Only one of these sources, XMMU J141255.6-635932, is spectrally compatible with GRO J1411-64 although the fact the soft X-ray observations do not cover the full extent of the COMPTEL source position uncertainty make an association hard to quantify and thus risky. The unique peak of the power output at high energies (hard X-rays and gamma-rays) resembles that found in the SED seen in blazars or microquasars. However, an analysis using a microquasar model consisting on a magnetized conical jet filled with relativistic electrons which radiate through synchrotron and inverse Compton scattering with star, disk, corona and synchrotron photons shows that it is hard to comply with all observational constrains. This and the non-detection at hard X-rays introduce an a-posteriori question mark upon the physical reality of this source, which is discussed in some detail.

A comprehensive study of the 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake: possible implications on Earth rotation and investigations on the coseismic and postseismic stress diffusion associated with the seismic rupture

In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.

Observations on the behavior of buildings in the Romania earthquake of March 4, 1977 /

Includes bibliographical references (p. 150).