Design energy spectra for Turkey

This work proposes design energy spectra in terms of velocity, derived through linear dynamic analyses on Turkish registers and intended for regions with design peak acceleration 0.3 g or higher. In the long and mid period ranges the analyses are linear, taking profit of the rather insensitivity of the spectra to the structural parameters other than the fundamental period; in the short period range, the spectra are more sensitive to the structural parameters and nonlinear analyses would be required. The selected records are classified in eight groups according to the design input acceleration, the soil type, the earthquake magnitude and the near-source effects. For each of these groups, median and characteristic spectra are proposed (50% and 95% percentiles). These spectra have an initial linear growing branch in the short period range, a horizontal branch in the mid period range and a descending branch in the long period range.

Catalogue of U.S. Geological Survey strong-motion records, 1992 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Sediments of Lake Vens (SW European Alps, France) record large-magnitude earthquake events

We studied sediment cores from Lake Vens (2,327 m asl), in the Tinée Valley of the SW Alps, to test the paleoseismic archive potential of the lake sediments in this particularly earthquake-sensitive area. The historical earthquake catalogue shows that moderate to strong earthquakes, with intensities of IX–X, have impacted the Southern Alps during the last millennium. Sedimentological (X-ray images, grain size distribution) and geochemical (major elements and organic matter) analyses show that Lake Vens sediments consist of a terrigenous, silty material (minerals and organic matter) sourced from the watershed and diatom frustules. A combination of X-ray images, grain-size distribution, major elements and magnetic properties shows the presence of six homogenite-type deposits interbedded in the sedimentary background. These sedimentological features are ascribed to sediment reworking and grain sorting caused by earthquake-generated seiches. The presence of microfaults that cross-cut the sediment supports the hypothesis of seismic deposits in this system. A preliminary sediment chronology is provided by 210Pb measurement and AMS 14C ages. According to the chronology, the most recent homogenite events are attributable to damaging historic earthquakes in AD 1887 (Ligure) and 1564 (Roquebillière). Hence, the Lake Vens sediment recorded large-magnitude earthquakes in the region and permits a preliminary estimate of recurrence time for such events of ~400 years.

Seismically-induced landslides by a low-magnitude earthquake: The Mw 4.7 Ossa De Montiel event (central Spain)

The Ossa de Montiel (2015/02/23, Mw 4.7) earthquake struck the central part of Spain and was felt far from the epicenter (> 300 km). Even though ground shaking was slight (Imax = V, EMS-98 scale), the earthquake triggered many small rock falls, most at distances of 20–30 km from the epicenter, greater than previously recorded in S Spain (16 km) for earthquakes of similar magnitudes. The comparative analysis of available data for this event with records from other quakes of the Betic cordillera (S and SE Spain) seems to indicate a slower pattern of ground-motion attenuation in central Spain. This could explain why slope instabilities occurred at larger distances. Instability was more frequent, and occurred at larger distances, in road cuts than in natural slopes, implying that such slope types are highly susceptible to seismically induced landslides.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.

The 1531 Lisbon Earthquake: A Tsunami In the Tagus Estuary?

On 26 January 1531, a strong-magnitude earthquake heavily impacted Lisbon downtown. Immediately after the earthquake, the eyewitnesses reported large waves in the Tagus estuary, mainly north of the city and along the northern bank of the river. Descriptions include large impacts on ships anchored in the estuary and even morphological changes in the riverbed. We present a synthesis of the available information concerning both the earthquake and the water disturbance as a basis for the discussion of the probable tectonic source and the magnitude of the associated river oscillations. We hypothesize that the initial disturbance of the water can be attributed to the coseismic deformation of the estuary riverbed, and we use a nonlinear shallow water model to simulate the tsunami propagation and inundation. We show that the Vila Franca de Xira fault is the most probable source of the 1531 event. The largest inundation effects of the model correlate well with the historical descriptions: the impact is relevant in the inner Tagus estuary, but inundation in downtown Lisbon is small.

Multidimensional scaling visualization of earthquake phenomena

Earthquakes are associated with negative events, such as large number of casualties, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, or emergence of tsunamis. In this paper, we apply the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis to earthquake data. MDS is a set of techniques that produce spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that, objects perceived to be similar/distinct in some sense are placed nearby/distant on the MDS maps. The interpretation of the charts is based on the resulting clusters since MDS produces a different locus for each similarity measure. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analyzed. The events, characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions, are divided into groups, either according to the Flinn–Engdahl seismic regions of Earth or using a rectangular grid based in latitude and longitude coordinates. Space-time and Space-frequency correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among events. MDS has the advantage of avoiding sensitivity to the non-uniform spatial distribution of seismic data, resulting from poorly instrumented areas, and is well suited for accessing dynamics of complex systems. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools, for understanding the global behavior of earthquakes.

Brief communication: Report on the impact of the 27 February 2010 earthquake (Chile, Mw 8.8) on rockfalls in the Las Cuevas valley, Argentina

Numerous rockfalls were detected in the Las Cuevas valley, Argentina, after the 27 February 2010 earthquake in Chile. Live rockfalls were observed during aftershocks of 11 March 2010. Many rockfall source areas coincide with known thrust fault and some areas presented a rockfall activity even after the tremors. Some rockfalls crossed the National Road 7 but no damages to houses or vehicles were reported. This study illustrates how the 27 February 2010 earthquake impacted on unstable slopes in a valley far from the earthquakes epicentre. It is an interesting addition to previous studies on landslides caused by earthquakes because of the high magnitude of the event and of its aftershocks.

The 2005 Pakistan earthquake revisited: Methods for integrated landslide assessment

Five years after the 2005 Pakistan earthquake that triggered multiple mass movements, landslides continue to pose a threat to the population of Azad Kashmir, especially during heavy monsoon rains. The thousands of landslides that were triggered by the 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005 were not just due to a natural phenomenon but largely induced by human activities, namely, road building, grazing, and deforestation. The damage caused by the landslides in the study area (381 km2) is estimated at 3.6 times the annual public works budget of Azad Kashmir for 2005 of US$ 1 million. In addition to human suffering, this cost constitutes a significant economic setback to the region that could have been reduced through improved land use and risk management. This article describes interdisciplinary research conducted 18 months after the earthquake to provide a more systemic approach to understanding risks posed by landslides, including the physical, environmental, and human contexts. The goal of this research is twofold: to present empirical data on the social, geological, and environmental contexts in which widespread landslides occurred following the 2005 earthquake; and, second, to describe straightforward methods that can be used for integrated landslide risk assessments in data-poor environments. The article analyzes limitations of the methodologies and challenges for conducting interdisciplinary research that integrates both social and physical data. This research concludes that reducing landslide risk is ultimately a management issue, based in land use decisions and governance.

Present-day deformation of the Pyrenees revealed by GPS surveying and earthquake focal mechanisms until 2011

The Pyrenean mountain range is a slowly deforming belt with continuous and moderate seismic activity. To quantify its deformation field, we present the velocity field estimated from a GPS survey of the Pyrenees spanning 18 yr. The PotSis and ResPyr networks, including a total of 85 GPS sites, were installed and first measured in 1992 and 1995 1997, respectively, and remeasured in 2008 and 2010. We obtain a deformation field with velocities less than 1 mm yr−1 across the range. The estimated velocities for individual stations do not differ significantly from zero with 95 per cent confidence. Even so, we estimate a maximum extensional horizontal strain rate of 2.0 ± 1.7 nanostrain per year in a N S direction in the western part of the range. We do not interpret the vertical displacements due to their large uncertainties. In order to compare the horizontal strain rates with the seismic activity, we analyse a set of 194 focal mechanisms using three methods: (i) the 'r' factor relating their P and T axes, (ii) the stress tensors obtained by fault slip inversion and (iii) the strain-rate tensors. Stress and strain-rate tensors are estimated for: (i) the whole data set, (ii) the eastern and western parts of the range separately, and (iii) eight zones, which are defined based on the seismicity and the tectonic patterns of the Pyrenees. Each of these analyses reveals a lateral variation of the deformation style from compression and extension in the east to extension and strike-slip in the west of the range. Although the horizontal components of the strain-rate tensors estimated from the seismic data are slightly smaller in magnitude than those computed from the GPS velocity field, they are consistent within the 2σ uncertainties. Furthermore, the orientations of their principal axes agree with the mapped active faults.

The intracratonic Caraibas-Itacarambi earthquake of December 09, 2007 (4.9 m(b)), Minas Gerais State, Brazil

On December 9, 2007, a 4.9 m(b) earthquake occurred in the middle of the Sao Francisco Craton, in a region with no known previous activity larger than 4 m(b). This event reached intensity VII MM (Modified Mercalli) causing the first fatal victim in Brazil. The activity had started in May 25, 2007 with a 3.5 magnitude event and continued for several months, motivating the deployment of a local 6-station network. A three week seismic quiescence was observed before the mainshock. Initial absolute hypocenters were calculated with best fitting velocity models and then relative locations were determined with hypoDD. The aftershock distribution indicates a 3 km long rupture for the mainshock. The fault plane solution, based on P-wave polarities and hypocentral trend, indicates a reverse faulting mechanism on a N30 degrees E striking plane dipping about 40 degrees to the SE. The rupture depth extends from about 0.3 to 1.2 km only. Despite the shallow depth of the mainshock, no surface feature could be correlated with the fault plane. Aeromagnetic data in the epicentral area show short-wavelength lineaments trending NNE-SSW to NE-SW which we interpret as faults and fractures in the craton basement beneath the surface limestone layer. We propose that the Caraibas-Itacarambi seismicity is probably associated with reactivation of these basement fractures and faults under the present E-W compressional stress field in this region of the South American Plate. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.