Resonance studies of artificial earth satellites

Orbit determination from artificial satellite observations is a key process in obtaining information about the Earth and its environment. A study of the perturbations experienced by these satellites enables knowledge to be gained of the upper atmosphere, the gravity field, ocean tides, solid-Earth tides and solar radiation. The gravity field is expressed as a double infinite series of associated Legendre functions (tesseral harmonics). In contemporary global gravity field models the overall geoid is well determined. An independent check on these gravity field harmonics of a particular order may be made by analysis of satellites that pass through resonance of that order. For such satellites the perturbations of the orbital elements close to resonance are analysed to derive lumped harmonic coefficients. The orbital parameters of 1984-106A have been determined at 43 epochs, during which time the satellite was close to 14th order resonance. Analysis of the inclination and eccentricity yielded 6 lumped harmonic coefficients of order 14 whilst analysis of the mean motion yielded additional pairs of lumped harmonics of orders 14, 28 and 42, with the 14th order harmonics superseding those obtained from analysis of the inclination. This thesis concentrates in detail on the theoretical changes of a near-circular satellite orbit perturbed by the Earth's gravity field under the influence of minimal air-drag whilst in resonance with the Earth. The satellite 1984-106A experienced the interesting property of being temporarily trapped with respect to a secondary resonance parameter due to the low air-drag in 1987. This prompted the theoretical investigation of such a phenomenon. Expressions obtained for the resonance parameter led to the determination of 8 lumped harmonic coefficients, coincidental to those already obtained. All the derived lumped harmonic values arc used to test the accuracy of contemporary gravity field models and the underlying theory in this thesis.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Comparação de modelos para o cálculo de pertubações orbitais devidas à maré terrestre

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Pertubações orbitais devidas a maré terrestre

Pós-graduação em Física - FEG

Análise das séries temporais de monitoramento de nível d'água em poços no aqüífero Rio Claro

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

A mathematical view of water table fluctuations in a shallow aquifer in Brazil

Detailed monitoring of the groundwater table can provide important data about both short- and long-term aquifer processes, including information useful for estimating recharge and facilitating groundwater modeling and remediation efforts. In this paper, we presents results of 4 years (2002 to 2005) of monitoring groundwater water levels in the Rio Claro Aquifer using observation wells drilled at the Rio Claro campus of São Paulo State University in Brazil. The data were used to follow natural periodic fluctuations in the water table, specifically those resulting from earth tides and seasonal recharge cycles. Statistical analyses included methods of time-series analysis using Fourier analysis, cross-correlation, and R/S analysis. Relationships could be established between rainfall and well recovery, as well as the persistence and degree of autocorrelation of the water table variations. We further used numerical solutions of the Richards equation to obtain estimates of the recharge rate and seasonable groundwater fluctuations. Seasonable soil moisture transit times through the vadose zone obtained with the numerical solution were very close to those obtained with the cross-correlation analysis. We also employed a little-used deep drainage boundary condition to obtain estimates of seasonable water table fluctuations, which were found to be consistent with observed transient groundwater levels during the period of study.

A practical MEMS gravimeter

The ability to measure tiny variations in the local gravitational acceleration allows – amongst other applications – the detection of hidden hydrocarbon reserves, magma build-up before volcanic eruptions, and subterranean tunnels. Several technologies are available that achieve the sensitivities required (tens of μGal/√Hz), and stabilities required (periods of days to weeks) for such applications: free-fall gravimeters, spring-based gravimeters, superconducting gravimeters, and atom interferometers. All of these devices can observe the Earth tides; the elastic deformation of the Earth’s crust as a result of tidal forces. This is a universally predictable gravitational signal that requires both high sensitivity and high stability over timescales of several days to measure. All present gravimeters, however, have limitations of excessive cost (£70 k) and high mass (<8 kg). In this thesis, the building of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gravimeter with a sensitivity of 40 μGal/√Hz in a package size of only a few cubic centimetres is discussed. MEMS accelerometers – found in most smart phones – can be mass-produced remarkably cheaply, but most are not sensitive enough, and none have been stable enough to be called a ‘gravimeter’. The remarkable stability and sensitivity of the device is demonstrated with a measurement of the Earth tides. Such a measurement has never been undertaken with a MEMS device, and proves the long term stability of the instrument compared to any other MEMS device, making it the first MEMS accelerometer that can be classed as a gravimeter. This heralds a transformative step in MEMS accelerometer technology. Due to their small size and low cost, MEMS gravimeters could create a new paradigm in gravity mapping: exploration surveys could be carried out with drones instead of low-flying aircraft; they could be used for distributed land surveys in exploration settings, for the monitoring of volcanoes; or built into multi-pixel density contrast imaging arrays.

The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observations: characteristics and intercomparison

In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv) occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The latter give valuable insight even to diurnal variation of ozone in the polar winter stratosphere.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.

A new treatise on the use of the globes : or, A philosophical view of the earth and heavens /

"Comprehending, an account of the figure, magnitude, and motion of the earth; with the natural changes of its surface, caused by floods, earthquakes, &c. together with the principles of meteorology and astronomy; with the theory of the tides, &c. Preceded by an extensive selection of astronomical, and other definitions; and illustrated by a great variety of problems, questions, for the examination of the student, &c. &c. Designed for the instruction of youth."

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Electrochemistry of Heteroleptic Tris(phthalocyaninato) Rare Earth(III) Complexes

The electrochemical characteristics of a series of heteroleptic tris(phthalocyaninato) complexes with identical rare earths or mixed rare earths (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc) [M = Eu...Lu, Y; H2Pc = unsubstituted phthalocyanine, H2(OOPc) = 3,4,12,13,21,22,30,31-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine] and (Pc)Eu(OOPc)Er(OOPc) have been recorded and studied comparatively by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in CH2Cl2 containing 0.1 M tetrabutylammonium perchlorate (TBAP). Up to five quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and four one-electron reductions have been revealed. The half-wave potentials of the first, second and fifth oxidations depend on the size of the metal center, but the fifth changes in the opposite direction to that of the first two. Moreover, the difference in redox potentials of the first oxidation and first reduction for (Pc)M(OOPc)M(OOPc), 0.85−0.98 V, also decreases linearly along with decreasing rare earth ion radius, clearly showing the rare earth ion size effect and indicating enhanced π−π interactions in the triple-deckers connected by smaller lanthanides. This order follows the red-shift seen in the lowest energy band of triple-decker compounds. The electronic differences between the lanthanides and yttrium are more apparent for triple-decker sandwich complexes than for the analogous double-deckers. By comparing triple-decker, double-decker and mononuclear [ZnII] complexes containing the OOPc ligand, the HOMO−LUMO gap has been shown to contract approximately linearly with the number of stacked phthalocyanine ligands.

Sandwich complexes of naphthalocyanine with the rare earth metals

Over the past two decades and in particular the past five years, numerous sandwich-type rare earth complexes containing naphthalocyanine ligands have been synthesized. The more extended delocalized π-electron system of naphthalocyanine in comparison with phthalocyanine generates unique physical, spectroscopic, electrochemical and photoelectrochemical properties which have aroused significant research interest in these compounds. This review summarizes recent progress in research on this important class of molecular materials and overviews the current status of the field.

Comparative Electrochemical Study of Unsubstituted and Substituted Bis(phthalocyaninato) Rare Earth(III) Complexes

The electrochemistry of homoleptic substituted phthalocyaninato rare earth double-decker complexes M(TBPc)2 and M(OOPc)2 [M = Y, La...Lu except Pm; H2TBPc = 3(4),12(13),21(22),30(31)-tetra-tert-butylphthalocyanine, H2OOPc = 3,4,12,13,21,22,30,31-octakis(octyloxy)phthalocyanine] has been comparatively studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) in CH2Cl2 containing 0.1 M tetra-n-butylammonium perchlorate (TBAP). Two quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and three or four quasi-reversible one-electron reductions have been revealed for these neutral double-deckers of two series of substituted complexes, respectively. For comparison, unsubstituted bis(phthalocyaninato) rare earth analogues M(Pc)2 (M = Y, La...Lu except Pm; H2Pc = phthalocyanine) have also been electrochemically investigated. Two quasi-reversible one-electron oxidations and up to five quasi-reversible one-electron reductions have been revealed for these neutral double-decker compounds. The three bis(phthalocyaninato)cerium compounds display one cerium-centered redox wave between the first ligand-based oxidation and reduction. The half-wave potentials of the first and second oxidations and first reduction for double-deckers of the tervalent rare earths depend on the size of the metal center. The difference between the redox potentials of the second and third reductions for MIII(Pc)2, which represents the potential difference between the first oxidation and first reduction of [MIII(Pc)2]−, lies in the range 1.08−1.37 V and also gradually diminishes along with the lanthanide contraction, indicating enhanced π−π interactions in the double-deckers connected by the smaller, lanthanides. This corresponds well with the red-shift of the lowest energy band observed in the electronic absorption spectra of reduced double-decker [MIII(Pc′)2]− (Pc′ = Pc, TBPc, OOPc).