Osakekurssin reagointi tulosvaroitukseen nousu- ja laskumarkkinoilla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää tapahtuuko tulosvaroituksen yhteydessä yli- tai alireagointia nousu- ja laskumarkkinoiden aikana. Tutkimus tehdään tapahtumatutkimuksena, jossa tarkoituksena on tutkia osakkeiden epänormaaleja tuottoja tulosvaroituspäivän ympärillä. Tapahtumaikkunan pituus on yhteensä 11 päivää [-5, +5]. Aineisto koostuu Helsingin pörssin OMXH25 indeksin yritysten julkaisemista tulosvaroituksista vuosien 1997–2009 välillä. Tälle aikavälille osuu 200 päivän liukuvalla keskiarvolla mitattuna kaksi nousu- ja kaksi laskumarkkinaa. Tutkimuksessa ei havaittu selvää yli- tai alireagointia nousu- tai laskumarkkinoilla. Sen sijaan tietty säännöllisyys reagoinnissa tulosvaroituksiin löydettiin: Nousumarkkinoilla, tulosvaroituspäivän jälkeen näkyy selvä positiivinen tuotto kahden päivän ajalta tulosvaroituksen jälkeen, riippumatta siitä onko kyseessä positiivinen vai negatiivinen tulosvaroitus. Vastaavasti laskumarkkinoilla löydettiin selvä negatiivinen epänormaali tuotto kahden päivän ajalta tulosvaroituksen jälkeen.

Adaptation of an apple sooty blotch and flyspeck warning system for the Upper Midwest United States

A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

The development of an early warning system to detect trends in illicit drug use in Australia: The illicit drug reporting-system

Appropriate ways to monitor the availability and use of illicit drugs were examined. Four methods were tested concurrently: (1) a quantitative survey of injecting drug users, (2) a qualitative key informant study of illicit drug users and professionals working in the drug field, (3) examination of existing sources of survey, health and law enforcement data and (4) an ethnographic study of a high risk group of illicit drug users. The first three methods were recommended for inclusion in an ongoing national monitoring system, enabling the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data on a range of illicit drugs in a relatively brief, quick and cost-effective manner. A degree of convergent validity was also noted among these methods, improving the degree of confidence in drug trends. The importance of injecting drug users as a sentinel population of illicit drug users was highlighted, along with optimal methods for qualitative research.

Associations of serious mental illness with earnings: results from the WHO World Mental Health surveys

Background Burden-of-illness data, which are often used in setting healthcare policy-spending priorities, are unavailable for mental disorders in most countries. Aims To examine one central aspect of illness burden, the association of serious mental illness with earnings, in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Method The WMH Surveys were carried out in 10 high-income and 9 low- and middle-income countries. The associations of personal earnings with serious mental illness were estimated. Results Respondents with serious mental illness earned on average a third less than median earnings, with no significant between-country differences (chi(2)(9)=5.5-8.1, P=0.5-0.79). These losses are equivalent to 0.3-0.8% of total national earnings. Reduced earnings among those with earnings and the increased probability of not earning are both important components of these associations: Conclusions These results add to a growing body of evidence that mental disorders have high societal costs. Decisions about healthcare resource allocation should take these costs into consideration.

Closing the gender gap in Bangladesh: Inequality in education, employment and earnings

Assesses the status of women in Bangladesh by analysing the dynamics of female participation in labour force and education as well as gender earnings differentials at the macro level. The study finds evidence of growing commercialisation of women’s work in Bangladesh. Although the bulk of the female labour force is engaged in self-employment activities in the rural area or in low-skilled textile and readymade garment industries in the urban area, women’s participation in high-skill and entrepreneurial jobs as well as various decision-making bodies is also on the rise. While the gender wage differentials have been considerably reduced in many industries, in general women tend to be paid less than men. There have been remarkable improvements in women’s educational attainments compared to men. Further, female access to education is found to be highly correlated with overall female labour force participation, and relative to male participation. The overall results are suggestive of an improvement in the status of women in Bangladesh.

Voluntary disclosure of forward-looking earnings forecasts in Australia

This study examines the voluntary disclosure of future earnings information in annual reports for Australian listed companies. We find that most Australian companies in our sample do not provide quantitative earnings, forecasts in their annual reports, although more than half of the sample do disclose forward-looking information relating to earnings, without specifically disclosing point estimates for the future. These companies mostly supply qualitative information with a positive bias, while the remainder of the sample discloses no forward-looking information relating to earnings. Our findings also suggest that larger companies with less volatile earnings tend to provide more future earnings information than smaller companies with relatively volatile earnings.

Earnings management and economic crises in the brazilian capital market

The 2008 economic crisis challenged accounting, either demanding recognition and measurement criteria well adjusted to this scenario or even questioning its ability to inform appropriately entities' financial situation before the crisis occurred. So, our purpose was to verify if during economic crises listed companies in the Brazilian capital market tended to adopt earnings management (EM) practices. Our sample consisted in 3,772 firm-years observations, in 13 years - 1997 to 2009. We developed regression models considering discretionary accruals as EM proxy (dependent variable), crisis as a macroeconomic factor (dummy variable of interest), ROA, market-to-book, size, leverage, foreign direct investment (FDI) and sector as control variables. Different for previous EM studies two approaches were used in data panel regression models and multiple crises were observed simultaneously. Statistics tests revealed a significant relation between economic crisis and EM practices concerning listed companies in Brazil in both approaches used.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Information and investor behavior surrounding earnings announcements

Preliminary version

Working hours and earnings: are mates’ answers coherent?

As surveys about time allocation among couples are extremely expensive, one way of reducing costs could be to query only one member of the coupler with the same set of questions about him/her and about his/her partner. In this paper we show that after carrying out a survey in this way, the responses given by one partner do not always fit the same econometric model as those obtained from the other.

Acute Otitis Media a Reliable Warning Sign for Primary Immunodeficiencies?- A Critical Appraisal

Acute otitis media (AOM) is the most common infection in childhood, resulting from both anatomic and immunologic specificities of this age group. Recurrent AOM has been defined as one of the warning signs for primary immunodeficiencies (PID), In this study we evaluated the strength of recurrent AOM as clinical predictor of PID. Methods: Retrospective study (August 2010 - December 2013) which included all patients referred to PID appointment because of recurrent AOM (= 8 AOM episodes/year). Syndromic patients or those presenting with another warning sign for PID were excluded. Clinical, demographic and laboratory results were analized and statistical analysis was made using SPSS 20. Results: Seventy-five patients were included (median age 37,8 months; 62,7% male gender), corresponding to 15% of all first appointments. Other comorbidities were present in 20% of the patients and 17% had ORL surgery prior to PID referral. In most patients, the immunologic screening consisted on the evaluation of humoral function, but in selected cases other studies were performed (namely complement and lymphocyte immunophenotyping). A PID was identified in 12 children (16,0%) and the majority of these patients had other distinctive feature (personal or familiar antecedent of infection or auto-immunity, 66,7%, p<0,05). Nine children (12,0%) underwent prophylactic cotrimoxazole. The average length of follow-up was 11,2 months. Conclusion: Despite being a very frequent cause of immunologic screening, in this study recurrent AOM was not found to be a good predictor of underlying PID, unless the patients presents other significant personal or family history.