Revista de la CEPAL no.82

Los laberintos del orden internacional: La importación de reformas / David Ibarra. -- Comportamiento paradójico de la banca extranjera en América Latina / Graciela Moguillansky, Rogerio Studart y Sebastián Vergara. -- Una propuesta de gravar con impuestos unitarios las ganancias de las empresas transnacionales / Andrew Mold. -- La integración regional y la coordinación macroeconómica en América Latina / Hubert Escaith. -- La sustitución de importaciones en las industrias de alta tecnología: Prebisch renace en Asia / Alice H. Amsden. -- Competitividad industrial en Brasil 10 años después de la liberalización / João Carlos Ferraz, David Kupfer y Mariana Iootty. -- Influencia del origen del capital sobre los patrones del comercio exterior brasileño / Célio Hiratuka y Fernanda De Negri. -- Información y conocimiento: la difusión de las TIC en la industria manufacturera argentina / Gabriel Yoguel, Marta Novick, Darío Milesi, Sonia Roitter y José Borello. -- Desarrollo económico local y descentralización en América Latina / Francisco Alburquerque. -- Migraciones, mercado de trabajo y pobreza en el Gran Buenos Aires / Rosalía Cortés y Fernando Groisman. -- Hogares, pobreza y políticas en épocas de crisis. México, 1992-1996 / Benjamín Davis, Sudhanshu Handa y Humberto Soto. -- La Revista en Internet. -- Publicaciones recientes de la CEPAL.

CEPAL Review no.82

The devious maze of the international order: the importation of reforms / David Ibarra. -- Foreign banks in Latin America: a paradoxical result / Graciela Moguillansky, Rogerio Studart and Sebastián Vergara. -- A proposal for unitary taxes on the profits of transnational corporations / Andrew Mold. -- Regional integration and macroeconomic coordination in Latin America / Hubert Escaith. -- Import substitution in high-tech industries: Prebisch lives in Asia! / Alice H. Amsden. -- Industrial competitiveness in Brazil ten years after economic liberalization / João Carlos Ferraz, David Kupfer and Mariana Iootty. -- The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns / Célio Hiratuka and Fernanda De Negri. -- Information and knowledge: the diffusion of information and communication technologies in the Argentine manufacturing sector / Gabriel Yoguel, Marta Novick, Darío Milesi, Sonia Roitter and José Borello. -- Local economic development and decentralization in Latin America / Francisco Alburquerque, in memory of Gabriel Aghón. -- Migrations, the labour market and poverty in Greater Buenos Aires / Rosalía Cortés and Fernando Groisman. -- Households, poverty and policy in times of crisis. Mexico, 1992-1996 / Benjamin Davis, Sudhanshu Handa and Humberto Soto. -- CEPAL Review on the Internet. -- Recent ECLAC publications.

Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016: Public finances and the challenge of reconciling austerity with growth and equality

Latin America’s fiscal accounts deteriorated slightly during 2015, registering an average deficit of 3.0% of GDP and average gross public debt of 34.7% of GDP. Of the 19 countries considered, the fiscal deficit and public debt as a share of GDP both increased in 11. The region started to build up public debt, most of it domestic, after the 2008 international financial crisis to meet the growing financing needs resulting from the worsening growth situation.

Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2016: La Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible y los desafíos del financiamiento para el desarrollo

En su edición número 68, que corresponde al año 2016, el Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe consta de tres partes. En la primera se resume el desempeño de la economía regional en 2015 y se analiza la evolución durante el primer semestre de 2016, así como las perspectivas de crecimiento para el año. Se examinan los factores externos e internos que han incidido en el desempeño económico de la región y se destacan algunos de los desafíos para las políticas macroeconómicas en un contexto externo caracterizado por el bajo crecimiento y elevados grados de incertidumbre. En la sección temática de este Estudio se analizan los desafíos que tienen los países de América Latina y el Caribe en el ámbito interno y externo para movilizar el financiamiento del desarrollo. En lo interno, la desaceleración del crecimiento y las mayores restricciones fiscales imponen importantes retos a la movilización de recursos. En lo externo, la condición de países de renta media dificulta el acceso al financiamiento externo concesionado o de la cooperación internacional. La tercera parte, que está disponible en la página web de la CEPAL (www.cepal.org), contiene las notas referentes al desempeño económico de los países de América Latina y el Caribe en 2015 y el primer semestre de 2016, así como los respectivos anexos estadísticos. La información que se presenta ha sido actualizada al 30 de junio de 2016.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the challenges of financing for development

This, the sixty-eighth edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, which corresponds to the year 2016, consists of three parts. Part I outlines the region’s economic performance in 2015 and analyses trends in the first half of 2016, as well as the outlook for the rest of the year. It examines the external and internal factors influencing the region’s economic performance and highlights some of the macroeconomic policy challenges that have arisen in an external context of weak growth and high levels of uncertainty. Part II analyses the challenges that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean face at the domestic and international levels in mobilizing financing for development. On the domestic front, slower growth and tighter fiscal restrictions pose significant challenges for the mobilization of resources. Externally, the classification of many of the region’s countries in the middle-income category limits their access to concessional external financing or international support. Part III of this publication may be accessed on the web page of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (www.eclac.org). It contains the notes relating to the economic performance of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015 and the first half of 2016, together with their respective statistical annexes. The cut-off date for updating the statistical information in this publication was 30 June 2016.

Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe 2016: A Agenda 2030 para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável e os desafios do financiamento para o desenvolvimento. Documento informativo

Em sua edição número 68, que corresponde a 2016, o Estudo Econômico da América Latina e do Caribe consta de três partes. A primeira resume o desempenho da economia regional em 2015 e analisa a evolução durante o primeiro semestre de 2016, bem como as perspectivas de crescimento para o ano. Examina os fatores externos e internos que incidiram no desempenho econômico da região e destaca alguns dos desafios para as políticas macroeconômicas num contexto externo caracterizado por baixo crescimento e elevados graus de incerteza. A seção temática deste estudo analisa os desafios que os países da América Latina e do Caribe enfrentam no âmbito interno e externo para mobilizar o financiamento para o desenvolvimento. No âmbito interno, a desaceleração do crescimento e as maiores restrições fiscais impõem importantes desafios à mobilização de recursos. No âmbito externo, a condição de países de renda média dificulta o acesso ao financiamento externo concessional ou à cooperação internacional. A terceira parte, que está disponível no site da CEPAL (www.cepal.org), contém as notas referentes ao desempenho econômico dos países da América Latina e do Caribe em 2015 e no primeiro semestre de 2016, bem como os respectivos anexos estatísticos. A informação apresentada foi atualizada em 30 de junho de 2016.

Employer evasion of worker entitlements 1986-95 : what and whose?

Employer non-compliance with workers’ entitlements is an area seldom explored in Australian industrial relations, generally considered uncommon or the province of ‘rogue’ employers. This paper provides a picture of the categories of entitlements against which complaints of evasion were made in the federal industrial relations jurisdiction in Australia, between 1986 and 1995 and the characteristics of complainants. The “top 30” awards ranked by extent of underpayment recovered by the federal enforcement agency (1987-95) are also explored to support arguments that intense competition, reduced union density, precarious employment, youth and being female are strongly associated with employer evasion. The increasing prevalence of these factors in the labour market suggests that employer compliance should be more carefully explored in the Australian context.

Gender and public attitude toward corruption and tax evasion

The topics of corruption and tax evasion have attracted significant attention in the literature in recent years. We build on that literature by investigating empirically: (1) whether attitudes toward corruption and tax evasion vary systematically with gender and (2) whether gender differences decline as men and women face similar opportunities for illicit behavior. We use data on eight Western European countries from the World Values Survey and the European Values Survey. The results reveal significantly greater aversion to corruption and tax evasion among women. This holds across countries and time, and across numerous empirical specifications. (JEL H260, D730, J160, Z130)

Employer evasion of workers’ entitlements 1968 – 1995: why, what and whose?

Employer non-compliance with workers’ entitlements has been largely ignored in Australian industrial relations. The legal and regulatory literature however, identifies arguments relating to employer propensity to evade regulatory requirements, as well as highlighting environmental factors that may influence such behaviour. This article explores these issues in the Australian federal industrial relations jurisdiction, as well as providing a picture of employer evasion of minimum labour standards between 1986 and 1995: who is exploited and in respect of what entitlements. Industry contexts and common characteristics of non-compliance are outlined by exploration of 30 awards ranked by the extent of underpayments recovered by the federal inspectorate during the period. Employer evasion of workers’ entitlements is arguably a calculated business decision, prompted or facilitated by intense competition, precarious employment (particularly female and youth), non-unionized workplaces and under-resourced enforcement agencies.

On inequality tax evasion and progressive taxes

This paper proposes a simple variation of the Allingham and Sandmo (1972) construct and integrates it to a dynamic general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents. We study an overlapping generations framework i n which agents must initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, they then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that in comparison with the basic approach, the ‘evade or not’ choice drastically reduced the extent of evasion in the economy. This outcome is the result of an anomaly intrinsic to the basic Allingham and Sandmo version of the model, which makes the evade-or-not extension a more suitable approach to modelling the issue. We also find that the basic model, and the model with and ‘evade-or-not’ choice have strikingly different political economy implications, , which suggest fruitful avenues of empirical research.

Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.

From fare evasion to illegal downloads : the cost of defiance

Australian households currently pay the second highest “honesty tax” in the world at $290 per household per year, levied by retailers to offset the $AU1.86 billion in losses they incur from customer theft. Theft is only one type of consumer deviance, which can include behaviours that are against the law, an organisation’s policy, or behaviours that violate normally accepted conduct. An individual’s “deviant behaviour” can vary from one person to the next. My research exploring consumer definitions of right and wrong has found a number of things can inform what an individual thinks is “deviant behaviour”, beyond what the law or organisational policy states as right or wrong. Consumers then use their own justifications to excuse their actions...

Aircraft pursuit-evasion problems with variable speeds

Aircraft pursuit-evasion encounters in a plane with variable speeds are analysed as a differential game. An engagement-dependent coordinate system confers open-loop optimality on the game. Each aircraft's optimal motion can be represented by extremel trajectory maps which are independent of role, adversary and capture radius. These maps are used in two different ways to construct the feedback solution. Some examples are given to illustrate these features. The paper draws on earlier results and surveys several existing papers on the subject.