Estimating hourly net radiation for leaf wetness duration using the Penman-Monteith equation

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is related to plant disease occurrence and is therefore a key parameter in agrometeorology. As LWD is seldom measured at standard weather stations, it must be estimated in order to ensure the effectiveness of warning systems and the scheduling of chemical disease control. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results for operational use. However, the requirement of net radiation (Rn) is a disadvantage foroperational physical models, since this variable is usually not measured over crops or even at standard weather stations. With the objective of proposing a solution for this problem, this study has evaluated the ability of four models to estimate hourly Rn and their impact on LWD estimates using a Penman-Monteith approach. A field experiment was carried out in Elora, Ontario, Canada, with measurements of LWD, Rn and other meteorological variables over mowed turfgrass for a 58 day period during the growing season of 2003. Four models for estimating hourly Rn based on different combinations of incoming solar radiation (Rg), airtemperature (T), relative humidity (RH), cloud cover (CC) and cloud height (CH), were evaluated. Measured and estimated hourly Rn values were applied in a Penman-Monteith model to estimate LWD. Correlating measured and estimated Rn, we observed that all models performed well in terms of estimating hourly Rn. However, when cloud data were used the models overestimated positive Rn and underestimated negative Rn. When only Rg and T were used to estimate hourly Rn, the model underestimated positive Rn and no tendency was observed for negative Rn. The best performance was obtained with Model I, which presented, in general, the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) and the highest C-index. When measured LWD was compared to the Penman-Monteith LWD, calculated with measured and estimated Rn, few differences were observed. Both precision and accuracy were high, with the slopes of the relationships ranging from 0.96 to 1.02 and R-2 from 0.85 to 0.92, resulting in C-indices between 0.87 and 0.93. The LWD mean absolute errors associated with Rn estimates were between 1.0 and 1.5h, which is sufficient for use in plant disease management schemes.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling construction time in Spanish building projects

The literature states that project duration is affected by various scope factors. Using 168 building projects carried out in Spain, this paper uses the multiple regression analysis to develop a forecast model that allows estimating project duration of new builds. The proposed model uses project type, gross floor area (GFA), the cost/GFA relationship and number of floors as predictor variables. The research identified the logarithmic form of construction speed as the most appropriate response variable. GFA has greater influence than cost on project duration but both factors are necessary to achieve a forecast model with the highest accuracy. We developed an analysis to verify the stability of forecasted values and showed how a model with high values of fit and accuracy may display an anomalous behavior in the forecasted values. The sensitivity of the proposed forecast model was also analyzed versus the variability of construction costs.

Suitability of relative humidity as an estimator of leaf wetness duration

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is a key parameter in agricultural meteorology since it is related to epidemiology of many important crops, controlling pathogen infection and development rates. Because LWD is not widely measured, several methods have been developed to estimate it from weather data. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results, but their complexity is a disadvantage for operational use. Alternatively, empirical models have been used despite their limitations. The simplest empirical models use only relative humidity data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three RH-based empirical models to estimate LWD in four regions around the world that have different climate conditions. Hourly LWD, air temperature, and relative humidity data were obtained from Ames, IA (USA), Elora, Ontario (Canada), Florence, Toscany (Italy), and Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State (Brazil). These data were used to evaluate the performance of the following empirical LWD estimation models: constant RH threshold (RH >= 90%); dew point depression (DPD); and extended RH threshold (EXT_RH). Different performance of the models was observed in the four locations. In Ames, Elora and Piracicaba, the RH >= 90% and DPD models underestimated LWD, whereas in Florence these methods overestimated LWD, especially for shorter wet periods. When the EXT_RH model was used, LWD was overestimated for all locations, with a significant increase in the errors. In general, the RH >= 90% model performed best, presenting the highest general fraction of correct estimates (F(C)), between 0.87 and 0.92, and the lowest false alarm ratio (F(AR)), between 0.02 and 0.31. The use of specific thresholds for each location improved accuracy of the RH model substantially, even when independent data were used; MAE ranged from 1.23 to 1.89 h, which is very similar to errors obtained with published physical models for LWD estimation. Based on these results, we concluded that, if calibrated locally, LWD can be estimated with acceptable accuracy by RH above a specific threshold, and that the EXT_RH method was unsuitable for estimating LWD at the locations used in this study. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a national multicenter study in Brazil

According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

A practical method of estimating energy expenditure during tennis play

This study aimed to develop a practical method of estimating energy expenditure (EE) during tennis. Twenty-four elite female tennis players first completed a tennis-specific graded test in which five different intensity levels were applied randomly. Each intensity level was intended to simulate a game of singles tennis and comprised six 14 s periods of activity alternated with 20 s of active rest. Oxygen consumption (VO2) and heart rate (HR) were measured continuously and each player's rate of perceived exertion (RPE) was recorded at the end of each intensity level. Rate of energy expenditure (EEVO2) during the test was calculated using the sum of VO2 during play and the 'O-2 debt' during recovery, divided by the duration of the activity. There were significant individual linear relationships between EEVO2 and RPE, EEVO2 and HR, (rgreater than or equal to0.89 rgreater than or equal to0.93; p

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Spatial variability of leaf wetness duration in a 'Niagara Rosada' vineyard

Despite considerable efforts to develop accurate electronic sensors to measure leaf wetness duration (LWD), little attention has been given to studies about how is LWD variability in different positions of the crop canopy. In order to evaluate the influence of 'Niagara Rosada' (Vitis labrusca) grapevine structure on the spatial variability of LWD, the objective of this study was to determine the canopy position of the ‘Niagara Rosada’ table grape with longer LWD and its correlation with measured standard LWD over turfgrass. LWD was measured in four different canopy positions of the vineyard (sensors deployed at 45º with the horizontal): at the top of the plants, with sensors facing southwest and northeast (Top-SW and Top-NE), and at the grape bunches height, with sensors facing southwest and northeast (Bottom-SW and Bottom-NE). No significant difference was observed between the top (1.6 m) and the bottom (1.0 m) of the canopy and also between the southwest and northeast face of the plants. The relationship between standard LWD over turfgrass and crop LWD in different positions of the grape canopy showed a define correlation, with R² ranging from 0.86 to 0.89 for all period, from 0.72 to 0.77 for days without rain, and from 0.89 to 0.91 for days with rain.

The highest intensity and the shortest duration permitting attainment of maximal oxygen uptake during cycling: effects of different methods and aerobic fitness level

The aims of this study were: (1) to verify the validity of previous proposed models to estimate the lowest exercise duration (T (LOW)) and the highest intensity (I (HIGH)) at which VO(2)max is reached (2) to test the hypothesis that parameters involved in these models, and hence the validity of these models are affected by aerobic training status. Thirteen cyclists (EC), eleven runners (ER) and ten untrained (U) subjects performed several cycle-ergometer exercise tests to fatigue in order to determine and estimate T (LOW) (ET (LOW)) and I (HIGH) (EI (HIGH)). The relationship between the time to achieved VO(2)max and time to exhaustion (T (lim)) was used to estimate ET (LOW). EI (HIGH) was estimated using the critical power model. I (HIGH) was assumed as the highest intensity at which VO2 was equal or higher than the average of VO(2)max values minus one typical error. T (LOW) was considered T (lim) associated with I (HIGH). No differences were found in T (LOW) between ER (170 +/- 31 s) and U (209 +/- 29 s), however, both showed higher values than EC (117 +/- 29 s). I (HIGH) was similar between U (269 +/- 73 W) and ER (319 +/- 50 W), and both were lower than EC (451 +/- 33 W). EI (HIGH) was similar and significantly correlated with I-HIGH only in U (r = 0.87) and ER (r = 0.62). ET (LOW) and T (LOW) were different only for U and not significantly correlated in all groups. These data suggest that the aerobic training status affects the validity of the proposed models for estimating I (HIGH).

Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission

Abstract Objectives: HIV 'treatment as prevention' (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and of the relation of HIV transmission risk to viral load. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase databases for studies that established a relationship between viral load and transmission risk, or primary infection and transmission risk, in serodiscordant couples. We analysed assumptions about the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and between duration of primary infection and transmission risk. Results: We found 36 eligible articles, based on six different study populations. Studies consistently found that larger viral loads lead to higher HIV transmission rates, but assumptions about the shape of this increase varied from exponential increase to saturation. The assumed duration of primary infection ranged from 1.5 to 12 months; for each additional month, the log10 transmission rate ratio between primary and asymptomatic infection decreased by 0.40. Conclusion: Assumptions and estimates of the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and the relationship between primary infection and transmission risk, vary substantially and predictions of TasP's effectiveness should take this uncertainty into account.