Why an ESM programme could be a kiss of death: Recovery values and subordination. CEPS Commentary, 27 June 2012

Spain, needing a bailout for its banks, was granted a vague promise by EZ leaders for up to €100 billion. The details remain obscure, yet they matter enormously. This column argues that the so-called ‘subordination effect’ of fresh official lending could put Spain on the slippery road to ruin. It argues that if sovereign bonds must be bought, this should be done in the secondary market which, would be on an equal footing with private investors and thus avoid the subordination trap.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Preventing the rise of sovereign borrowing costs in the Eurozone: what can the ESM and the ECB achieve? Egmont Paper No. 56, November 2012

This paper focuses on the possible instruments for ‘ex-ante’/’preventive’/’precautionary’ interventions which can be deployed by the ESM and the ECB in order to prevent a debt crisis in a eurozone country. The potential of Eurobonds will also be discussed in this crisis management perspective. The first part of this paper traces the underlying trends of the evolution of interest rates in eurozone countries over the last decades. The second part discusses the principles of a preventive intervention in sovereign bond markets for the purpose of lowering borrowing costs of countries facing refinancing constraints; the limits and main issues of an ex-ante intervention will be underlined. In the third part, the properties of the ESM’s precautionary financial assistance and secondary market support facility will be discussed in details. The ECB preemptive intervention policies and, in particular, the OMT will be analyzed in the fourth part of the paper. The most likely course of action – a combined intervention by the ESM and the ECB – will be discussed in the fifth part. Finally, I will point out the core challenges of introducing Eurobonds as additional instruments to mitigate the rise of borrowing costs in the short term.

ESM.

Many nos. also issued in its MM series.

Mentale Veerkracht als Buffer tegen Docenten Stress-Reactiviteit: een ESM-studie

Om meer inzicht te krijgen in factoren die positief bijdragen aan de stress-reactiviteit van de docent wordt in deze studie onderzocht in hoeverre mentale veerkracht en docenten eigen effectiviteitsverwachting (DEE) een bufferende werking hebben in de samenhang tussen dagelijkse gebeurtenissen met stress en het positief (PA) en negatief affect (NA). Deze kennis kan gebruikt worden op zowel preventief (selectie) als curatief niveau. Het onderzoek is gedaan onder 41 docenten (leeftijd M=40, SD=9.2) uit verschillende typen onderwijs. Middels de experience sample methode werden gedurende een week activiteitsgerelateerde, sociale en gebeurtenisgerelateerde stress en de emotionele reactiviteit, geobjectiveerd in veranderingen in PA en NA gemeten. Vooraf de onderzoeksweek vulden zij twee vragenlijsten in betreffende mentale veerkracht en DEE. Het meten van positief en negatief affect (PA en NA), activiteitsgerelateerde, sociale en gebeurtenisgerelateerde stress gebeurde door middel van de Experience Sample Methode, zowel via papieren boekje als digitaal (smartphone, tablet, computer). Mentale veerkracht is gemeten met de RS-NL, DEE door middel van een vertaalde vragenlijst van de Teacher Self-Efficacy Scale. Door middel van een multi-level regressieanalysie werden tussen de drie stressmaten en de afhankelijke variabelen PA en NA zijn significante samenhangen gevonden. Volgens de verwachting speelt mentale veerkracht een modererende rol in de samenhang tussen de stressmaten en NA. DEE speelt een modererende rol in de samenhang tussen sociale stress en PA.

Emotions in the Experiential Consumption of Mobile Phones

Although marketers have a strong interest in finding ways to engage with consumers through mobile phones, the everyday experiential, or affective consumption practices surrounding this technology have received limited attention in the literature. To address this limitation, we used appraisal theory, which specifies it is the way individuals appraise situations or events that elicit emotions. We conducted an experience sampling method study to explore the emotions that individuals experience during their interactions with and through their mobile phones and what situations or events elicit these emotions. The preliminary findings show a number of significant relationships between emotions and specfic clusters of situations and events. Additionally, age and gender were also important indicators. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of the experiential nature of mobile information technologies through consumers’ everyday-consumption-related emotions and the situations and events that elicit them.

Efficient safety message dissemination for cooperative collision warning via context modelling

A Cooperative Collision Warning System (CCWS) is an active safety techno- logy for road vehicles that can potentially reduce traffic accidents. It provides a driver with situational awareness and early warnings of any possible colli- sions through an on-board unit. CCWS is still under active research, and one of the important technical problems is safety message dissemination. Safety messages are disseminated in a high-speed mobile environment using wireless communication technology such as Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC). The wireless communication in CCWS has a limited bandwidth and can become unreliable when used inefficiently, particularly given the dynamic nature of road traffic conditions. Unreliable communication may significantly reduce the performance of CCWS in preventing collisions. There are two types of safety messages: Routine Safety Messages (RSMs) and Event Safety Messages (ESMs). An RSM contains the up-to-date state of a vehicle, and it must be disseminated repeatedly to its neighbouring vehicles. An ESM is a warning message that must be sent to all the endangered vehi- cles. Existing RSM and ESM dissemination schemes are inefficient, unscalable, and unable to give priority to vehicles in the most danger. Thus, this study investigates more efficient and scalable RSM and ESM dissemination schemes that can make use of the context information generated from a particular traffic scenario. Therefore, this study tackles three technical research prob- lems, vehicular traffic scenario modelling and context information generation, context-aware RSM dissemination, and context-aware ESM dissemination. The most relevant context information in CCWS is the information about possible collisions among vehicles given a current vehicular traffic situation. To generate the context information, this study investigates techniques to model interactions among multiple vehicles based on their up-to-date motion state obtained via RSM. To date, there is no existing model that can represent interactions among multiple vehicles in a speciffic region and at a particular time. The major outcome from the first problem is a new interaction graph model that can be used to easily identify the endangered vehicles and their danger severity. By identifying the endangered vehicles, RSM and ESM dis- semination can be optimised while improving safety at the same time. The new model enables the development of context-aware RSM and ESM dissemination schemes. To disseminate RSM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware dis- semination scheme that can optimise the RSM dissemination rate to improve safety in various vehicle densities. The major outcome from the second problem is a context-aware RSM dissemination protocol. The context-aware protocol can adaptively adjust the dissemination rate based on an estimated channel load and danger severity of vehicle interactions given by the interaction graph model. Unlike existing RSM dissemination schemes, the proposed adaptive scheme can reduce channel congestion and improve safety by prioritising ve- hicles that are most likely to crash with other vehicles. The proposed RSM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed RSM protocol outperforms existing pro- tocols in terms of efficiency, scalability and safety. To disseminate ESM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware ESM dissemination scheme that can reduce unnecessary transmissions and deliver ESMs to endangered vehicles as fast as possible. The major outcome from the third problem is a context-aware ESM dissemination protocol that uses a multicast routing strategy. Existing ESM protocols use broadcast rout- ing, which is not efficient because ESMs may be sent to a large number of ve- hicles in the area. Using multicast routing improves efficiency because ESMs are sent only to the endangered vehicles. The endangered vehicles can be identified using the interaction graph model. The proposed ESM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed ESM protocol can prevent potential accidents from occurring better than existing ESM protocols. The context model and the RSM and ESM dissemination protocols can be implemented in any CCWS development to improve the communication and safety performance of CCWS. In effect, the outcomes contribute to the realisation of CCWS that will ultimately improve road safety and save lives.

How does enterprise social media help retail employees innovate?

An increasing number of organizations have installed enterprise social media (ESM) platforms to allow employees to collaborate, work independently, and to innovate more easily. While research has started to explain how such technologies can lead to improved collaboration and productivity, their role in assisting employees in innovation processes remains unclear. In our research-in-progress we examine the case of a global retail organization that adopted ESM for all employees with the view to foster employee-driven innovation. We report on our on-going data collection and analysis, in which we focus on the salient mechanisms and contingency factors why ESM under some conditions facilitates employee-driven innovation and why under some conditions it does not. We report on on-going data collection, data analysis strategies and emergent findings, and conclude with a brief outlook on our future research strategies.

Adsorption isotherms for neutral organic compounds - A hierarchy in modelling: Part V. Models for the inner layer potential difference in the presence of dipolar adsorption

The relations for the inner layer potential &fference (E) in the presence of adsorbed orgamc molecules are derived for three hterarchlcal models, m terms of molecular constants like permanent &pole moments, polarlzablhtles, etc It is shown how the experimentally observed patterns of the E vs 0 plots (hnear m all ranges of $\sigma^M$, non-linear in one or both regions of o M, etc ) can be understood in a serm-quantltatlve manner from the simplest model in our hierarchy, viz the two-state site panty version Two-state multi-site and three-state (sxte panty) models are also analysed and the slope (3E/80),,M tabulated for these also The results for the Esm-Markov effect are denved for all the models and compared with the earlier result of Parsons. A comparison with the GSL phenomenologlcal equation is presented and its molecular basis, as well as the hmltatlons, is analysed. In partxcular, two-state multa-slte and three-state (site panty) models yield E-o M relations that are more general than the "umfied" GSL equation The posslblhty of vaewlng the compact layer as a "composite medium" with an "effective dlelectnc constant" and obtaimng novel phenomenological descnptions IS also indicated.

Surface electrode switching of a 16-electrode wireless EIT system using RF-based digital data transmission scheme with 8 channel encoder/decoder ICs

A Radio Frequency (RF) based digital data transmission scheme with 8 channel encoder/decoder ICs is proposed for surface electrode switching of a 16-electrode wireless Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) system. A RF based wireless digital data transmission module (WDDTM) is developed and the electrode switching of a EIT system is studied by analyzing the boundary data collected and the resistivity images of practical phantoms. An analog multiplexers based electrode switching module (ESM) is developed with analog multiplexers and switched with parallel digital data transmitted by a wireless transmitter/receiver (T-x/R-x) module working with radio frequency technology. Parallel digital bits are generated using NI USB 6251 card working in LabVIEW platform and sent to transmission module to transmit the digital data to the receiver end. The transmitter/receiver module developed is properly interfaced with the personal computer (PC) and practical phantoms through the ESM and USB based DAQ system respectively. It is observed that the digital bits required for multiplexer operation are sequentially generated by the digital output (D/O) ports of the DAQ card. Parallel to serial and serial to parallel conversion of digital data are suitably done by encoder and decoder ICs. Wireless digital data transmission module successfully transmitted and received the parallel data required for switching the current and voltage electrodes wirelessly. 1 mA, 50 kHz sinusoidal constant current is injected at the phantom boundary using common ground current injection protocol and the boundary potentials developed at the voltage electrodes are measured. Resistivity images of the practical phantoms are reconstructed from boundary data using EIDORS. Boundary data and the resistivity images reconstructed from the surface potentials are studied to assess the wireless digital data transmission system. Boundary data profiles of the practical phantom with different configurations show that the multiplexers are operating in the required sequence for common ground current injection protocol. The voltage peaks obtained at the proper positions in the boundary data profiles proved the sequential operation of multiplexers and successful wireless transmission of digital bits. Reconstructed images and their image parameters proved that the boundary data are successfully acquired by the DAQ system which in turn again indicates a sequential and proper operation of multiplexers as well as the successful wireless transmission of digital bits. Hence the developed RF based wireless digital data transmission module (WDDTM) is found suitable for transmitting digital bits required for electrode switching in wireless EIT data acquisition system. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of fermented fluted pumpkin leaf (Telfaria occidentalis) on the growth and nutrient utilization of Clarias (Clarias gariepinus)

Clarias (Clarias gariepinus) (Burshell, 1821) fingerlings were fed isonitrogenous diets (38.9% crude protein) with fermented fluted pumpkin leaves (FFPL) replacing different proportion (0,50,75,100%) of extruded soybean meal (ESM) for 8 weeks. Growth responses at the different substitution levels measured. Increasing FFPL intake resulted in better weight gains and higher specific growth rates (SGR) of 0.29, 0.36 and 0.38% per day respectively. The increase in growth from feeding diets containing 75% and 100% of the ESM replaced with FFPL were significantly higher (P<0.05) than those of other diets. Further more fish tissue protein deposition consistently increased with increasing level of FFPL concentration in their diets. Fish fed diets where whole ESM was replace 100% FFPL gave the best overall response in terms of their weight gain, food conversion ratio, protein efficiency ratio, and specific growth rate. Economic considerations indicate the replacement of ESM with FFPL, which is a cheaper ingredient in feeds for Clarias