What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

Why an ESM programme could be a kiss of death: Recovery values and subordination. CEPS Commentary, 27 June 2012

Spain, needing a bailout for its banks, was granted a vague promise by EZ leaders for up to €100 billion. The details remain obscure, yet they matter enormously. This column argues that the so-called ‘subordination effect’ of fresh official lending could put Spain on the slippery road to ruin. It argues that if sovereign bonds must be bought, this should be done in the secondary market which, would be on an equal footing with private investors and thus avoid the subordination trap.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Preventing the rise of sovereign borrowing costs in the Eurozone: what can the ESM and the ECB achieve? Egmont Paper No. 56, November 2012

This paper focuses on the possible instruments for ‘ex-ante’/’preventive’/’precautionary’ interventions which can be deployed by the ESM and the ECB in order to prevent a debt crisis in a eurozone country. The potential of Eurobonds will also be discussed in this crisis management perspective. The first part of this paper traces the underlying trends of the evolution of interest rates in eurozone countries over the last decades. The second part discusses the principles of a preventive intervention in sovereign bond markets for the purpose of lowering borrowing costs of countries facing refinancing constraints; the limits and main issues of an ex-ante intervention will be underlined. In the third part, the properties of the ESM’s precautionary financial assistance and secondary market support facility will be discussed in details. The ECB preemptive intervention policies and, in particular, the OMT will be analyzed in the fourth part of the paper. The most likely course of action – a combined intervention by the ESM and the ECB – will be discussed in the fifth part. Finally, I will point out the core challenges of introducing Eurobonds as additional instruments to mitigate the rise of borrowing costs in the short term.

ESM.

Many nos. also issued in its MM series.

Mentale Veerkracht als Buffer tegen Docenten Stress-Reactiviteit: een ESM-studie

Om meer inzicht te krijgen in factoren die positief bijdragen aan de stress-reactiviteit van de docent wordt in deze studie onderzocht in hoeverre mentale veerkracht en docenten eigen effectiviteitsverwachting (DEE) een bufferende werking hebben in de samenhang tussen dagelijkse gebeurtenissen met stress en het positief (PA) en negatief affect (NA). Deze kennis kan gebruikt worden op zowel preventief (selectie) als curatief niveau. Het onderzoek is gedaan onder 41 docenten (leeftijd M=40, SD=9.2) uit verschillende typen onderwijs. Middels de experience sample methode werden gedurende een week activiteitsgerelateerde, sociale en gebeurtenisgerelateerde stress en de emotionele reactiviteit, geobjectiveerd in veranderingen in PA en NA gemeten. Vooraf de onderzoeksweek vulden zij twee vragenlijsten in betreffende mentale veerkracht en DEE. Het meten van positief en negatief affect (PA en NA), activiteitsgerelateerde, sociale en gebeurtenisgerelateerde stress gebeurde door middel van de Experience Sample Methode, zowel via papieren boekje als digitaal (smartphone, tablet, computer). Mentale veerkracht is gemeten met de RS-NL, DEE door middel van een vertaalde vragenlijst van de Teacher Self-Efficacy Scale. Door middel van een multi-level regressieanalysie werden tussen de drie stressmaten en de afhankelijke variabelen PA en NA zijn significante samenhangen gevonden. Volgens de verwachting speelt mentale veerkracht een modererende rol in de samenhang tussen de stressmaten en NA. DEE speelt een modererende rol in de samenhang tussen sociale stress en PA.

Análise da problemática da exposição dos músicos ao ruído: perceção ao ruído e determinação dos níveis de pressão sonora na prática musical em contexto escolar

A atenção face dada à problemática da perda auditiva induzida pelo ruído nos profissionais da música tem sido enfatizada estudos nos últimos anos. No entanto, no que respeita aos alunos de música, são ainda poucos os estudos que analisam esta problemática de modo a permitir compreender se estes poderão estar expostos a elevados níveis de ruído no decorrer da sua formação e desenvolver problemas auditivos. O presente estudo pretende caraterizar os níveis de pressão sonora a que alunos de música estão expostos no decorrer das aulas e analisar a perceção do risco dos mesmos e potenciais efeitos sobre o sistema auditivo. Foram analisadas duas Orquestras de Jazz e uma Orquestra Sinfónica de uma Escola Superior de Música (ESM) e de um Conservatório de Música (CM). No total foram selecionados 24 alunos de acordo com o seu instrumento, e medidos os níveis de pressão sonora em diversas aulas, ao longo de duas semanas com recurso a 8 dosímetros. Foi aplicado um questionário para a análise da perceção dos alunos ao ruído e realizados exames audiométricos para a avaliação auditiva dos alunos. Em geral, os resultados demostraram que os alunos estão expostos a níveis elevados de ruído no decurso das aulas de instrumento e ensaios. Foram obtidos elevados níveis de Lp,A,eqT na bateria, vibrafone, saxofone, trombone, clarinete e trompa. Nas três escolas, verificou-se valores mais baixos de exposição no contrabaixo, nomeadamente nas Aulas Individuais. Os valores de Lp,Cpico ultrapassaram o valor de ação inferior de 135 dB(C) na percussão e saxofone. Nas aulas teóricas os valores obtidos ultrapassaram recomendação de 35 dB(A). No que respeita à perceção dos alunos verificou-se que em geral consideram que a exposição a elevados níveis de pressão sonora não tem efeitos significativos na saúde. Apesar de se ter verificado que todos os alunos avaliados apresentam uma audição normal, tinnitus, hiperacusia, distorção e diplacusia foram identificados por um número significativo de alunos. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo refletem a necessidade de implementação de medidas de prevenção e controlo dos níveis de exposição dos alunos de música com vista a um aumento da sua consciencialização do risco.

Desenvolvimento e caracterização de díodos orgânicos emissores de luz

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Eletrónica Industrial e Computadores

Avaliação da perfusão e função miocárdicas em vítimas de escorpionismo utilizando o Gated-SPECT

FUNDAMENTO: O choque cardiogênico e o edema agudo de pulmão são as principais causas de óbito em pacientes com escorpionismo, cujo mecanismo fisiopatológico ainda é controverso. OBJETIVOS: Investigar a correlação entre os distúrbios da perfusão miocárdica e a função contrátil do ventrículo esquerdo, em vítimas de escorpionismo. MÉTODOS: Quinze pacientes submeteram-se à cintilografia de perfusão miocárdica sincronizada com ECG (Gated SPECT), dentro de 72 horas e 15 dias após o acidente escorpiônico. As imagens foram analisadas visualmente por escore semiquantitativo de perfusão (0 = normal, 4 = ausente) e mobilidade (0 = normal, 4 = acinético), utilizando modelo de 17 segmentos. Para cada paciente foram calculados escores somados de perfusão (ESP) e mobilidade (ESM). A fração de ejeção (FEVE) foi calculada por software comercialmente disponível. RESULTADOS: Na avaliação inicial, 12 dos 15 pacientes apresentaram alterações da contratilidade e da perfusão miocárdica. O ESP foi de 12,5 ± 7,3, o ESM de 17,0 ± 12, 8 e a FEVE de 44,6 ± 16,0%. Houve correlação positiva entre o ESP e o ESM (r = 0,68; p = 0,005) e negativa entre o ESP e a FEVE (r = -0,75; p = 0,0021). Os estudos de seguimento mostraram recuperação da contratilidade global (FEVE de 68,9 ± 9,5, p = 0,0002), segmentar (ESM 2,6 ± 3,1, p = 0,0009) e da perfusão (ESP 3,7 ± 3,3, p = 0,0003). A melhora da FEVE correlacionou-se positivamente com a melhora do ESP (r = 0,72; p = 0,0035). CONCLUSÕES: Alterações perfusionais miocárdicas são comuns no envenenamento escorpiônico e correlacionam-se topograficamente com a disfunção contrátil. A recuperação da contratilidade correlaciona-se com a reversibilidade dos defeitos perfusionais. Estes achados sugerem a participação de alterações perfusionais miocárdicas na fisiopatologia desta forma de insuficiência ventricular aguda. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2010;94(4): 444-451)

Retrospective Study on Dengue in Fortaleza, State of Ceará, Brazil

A retrospective serologic study was carried out in Fortaleza, State of Ceará, Brazil, in order to detect the dengue virus activity before recognizing the epidemic of 1994. Mac-Elisa was performed by using a mixture of specific DEN-1 and DEN-2 antigens on serum samples from the Emilio Ribas Laboratory collection. Samples were obtained from 1,224 patients with exanthematic febrile disease and negative serological results for rubella. All specimens were taken during November 1993 to May 1994. The results confirmed dengue infections in Fortaleza by November 1993, approximately six months before the beginning of the epidemic, proving how misleading diagnosis of dengue infection are still troublesome, in spite of the strong dengue activity in Ceará. The authors stress the urgent necessity to implement the active surveillance system in order to prevent another extensive dengue fever epidemics in the state. Epidemiological background of the dengue activity in the State of Ceará is also described.

Anatomical correlates for category-specific naming of objects and actions: A brain stimulation mapping study.

The production of object and action words can be dissociated in aphasics, yet their anatomical correlates have been difficult to distinguish in functional imaging studies. To investigate the extent to which the cortical neural networks underlying object- and action-naming processing overlap, we performed electrostimulation mapping (ESM), which is a neurosurgical mapping technique routinely used to examine language function during brain-tumor resections. Forty-one right-handed patients who had surgery for a brain tumor were asked to perform overt naming of object and action pictures under stimulation. Overall, 73 out of the 633 stimulated cortical sites (11.5%) were associated with stimulation-induced language interferences. These interference sites were very much localized (<1 cm(2) ), and showed substantial variability across individuals in their exact localization. Stimulation interfered with both object and action naming over 44 sites, whereas it specifically interfered with object naming over 19 sites and with action naming over 10 sites. Specific object-naming sites were mainly identified in Broca's area (Brodmann area 44/45) and the temporal cortex, whereas action-naming specific sites were mainly identified in the posterior midfrontal gyrus (Brodmann area 6/9) and Broca's area (P = 0.003 by the Fisher's exact test). The anatomical loci we emphasized are in line with a cortical distinction between objects and actions based on conceptual/semantic features, so the prefrontal/premotor cortex would preferentially support sensorimotor contingencies associated with actions, whereas the temporal cortex would preferentially underpin (functional) properties of objects. Hum Brain Mapp 35:429-443, 2014. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Porting and performance analysis of EC-Earth System on the BSC-MareNostrum Supercomputer

Earth System Models (ESM) have been successfuly developed over past few years, and are currently beeing used for simulating present day-climate, seasonal to interanual predictions of climate change. The supercomputer performance plays an important role in climate modeling since one of the challenging issues for climate modellers is to efficiently and accurately couple earth System components on present day computers architectures. At the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), we work with the EC- Earth System Model. The EC- Earth is an ESM, which currently consists of an atmosphere (IFS) and an ocean (NEMO) model that communicate with each other through the OASIS coupler. Additional modules (e.g. for chemistry and vegetation ) are under development. The EC-Earth ESM has been ported successfully over diferent high performance computin platforms (e.g, IBM P6 AIX, CRAY XT-5, Intelbased Linux Clusters, SGI Altix) at diferent sites in Europ (e.g., KNMI, ICHEC, ECMWF). The objective of the first phase of the project was to identify and document the issues related with the portability and performance of EC-Earth on the MareNostrum supercomputer, a System based on IBM PowerPC 970MP processors and run under a Linux Suse Distribution. EC-Earth was successfully ported to MareNostrum, and a compilation incompatibilty was solved by a two step compilation approach using XLF version 10.1 and 12.1 compilers. In addition, the EC-Earth performance was analyzed with respect to escalability and trace analysis with the Paravear software. This analysis showed that EC-Earth with a larger number of IFS CPUs (<128) is not feasible at the moment since some issues exists with the IFS-NEMO balance and MPI Communications.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.