Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydraulic conductivity and experiments of sediment beds

In marine environments, sediments from different sources are stirred and dispersed, generating beds that are composed of mixed and layered sediments of differing grain sizes. Traditional engineering formulations used to predict erosion thresholds are however, generally for unimodal sediment distributions, and so may be inadequate for commonly occurring coastal sediments. We tested the transport behavior of deposited and mixed sediment beds consisting of a simplified two-grain fraction (silt (D50 = 55 µm) and sand (D50 = 300 µm)) in a laboratory-based annular flume with the objective of investigating the parameters controlling the stability of a sediment bed. To mimic recent deposition of particles following large storm events and the longer-term result of the incorporation of fines in coarse sediment, we designed two suites of experiments: (1) "the layering experiment": in which a sandy bed was covered by a thin layer of silt of varying thickness (0.2 - 3 mm; 0.5 - 3.7 wt %, dry weight in a layer 10 cm deep); and (2) "the mixing experiment" where the bed was composed of sand homogeneously mixed with small amounts of silt (0.07 - 0.7 wt %, dry weight). To initiate erosion and to detect a possible stabilizing effect in both settings, we increased the flow speeds in increments up to 0.30 m/s. Results showed that the sediment bed (or the underlying sand bed in the case of the layering experiment) stabilized with increasing silt composition. The increasing sediment stability was defined by a shift of the initial threshold conditions towards higher flow speeds, combined with, in the case of the mixed bed, decreasing erosion rates. Our results show that even extremely low concentrations of silt play a stabilizing role (1.4% silt (wt %) on a layered sediment bed of 10 cm thickness). In the case of a mixed sediment bed, 0.18% silt (wt %, in a sample of 10 cm depth) stabilized the bed. Both cases show that the depositional history of the sediment fractions can change the erosion characteristics of the seabed. These observations are summarized in a conceptual model that suggests that, in addition to the effect on surface roughness, silt stabilizes the sand bed by pore-space plugging and reducing the inflow in the bed, and hence increases the bed stability. Measurements of hydraulic conductivity on similar bed assemblages qualitatively supported this conclusion by showing that silt could decrease the permeability by up to 22% in the case of a layered bed and by up to 70% in the case of a mixed bed.

Assessing suspended sediment dynamics in relation to ecological thresholds and sampling strategies in two Irish headwater catchments

Prediction of the impact of suspended sediment on aquatic ecosystems requires adequate knowledge of sediment dynamics in surface waters. Often, studies reporting the response of aquatic biota to suspended sediment are concerned with concentrations, while catchment erosion studies often report sediment delivery as annual loads and yields, making the comparison to documented ecological impacts difficult. Similarly, the European Union Freshwater Fish Directive (FFD) (78/659/EC) stipulates a guideline value of 25mgl which should not be exceeded, with the exception of floods and droughts. In this respect, the significance of suspended sediment in two Irish rivers was assessed using turbidity sensors calibrated for suspended sediment. Sediment yields of 0.07 tonnes (t) hayear and 0.44thayear and annual FFD exceedance frequency of 8.3% and 17.8% were estimated for the two catchments. Contrasts in the frequency of exceedance events between both catchments was observed, yet duration was typically short (

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model): A tool for identifying wind erosion hazard in Australia

We present AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model), a land erodibility modelling system that utilizes a rule-set of surficial and climatic thresholds applied through a Geographic Information System (GIs) modelling framework to predict landscape susceptibility to wind erosion. AUSLEM is distinctive in that it quantitatively assesses landscape susceptibility to wind erosion at a 5 x 5 km. spatial resolution on a monthly time-step across Australia. The system was implemented for representative wet (1984), dry (1994), and average rainfall (1997) years with corresponding low, high and moderate dust storm day frequencies. Results demonstrate that AUSLEM can identify landscape erodibility, and provide an interpretation of the physical nature and distribution of erodible landscapes in Australia. Further, results offer an assessment of the dynamic tendencies of erodibility in space and time in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal synoptic scale climate variability. A comparative analysis of AUSLEM output with independent national and international wind erosion, atmospheric aerosol and dust event records indicates a high level of model competency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility thresholds to avoid corneal swelling during open eye soft contact lens wear

This study was designed to derive central and peripheral oxygen transmissibility (Dk/t) thresholds for soft contact lenses to avoid hypoxia-induced corneal swelling (increased corneal thickness) during open eye wear. Central and peripheral corneal thicknesses were measured in a masked and randomized fashion for the left eye of each of seven subjects before and after 3 h of afternoon wear of five conventional hydrogel and silicone hydrogel contact lens types offering a range of Dk/t from 2.4 units to 115.3 units. Curve fitting for plots of change in corneal thickness versus central and peripheral Dk/t found threshold values of 19.8 and 32.6 units to avoid corneal swelling during open eye contact lens wear for a typical wearer. Although some conventional hydrogel soft lenses are able to achieve this criterion for either central or peripheral lens areas (depending on lens power), in general, no conventional hydrogel soft lenses meet both the central and peripheral thresholds. Silicone hydrogel contact lenses typically meet both the central and peripheral thresholds and use of these lenses therefore avoids swelling in all regions of the cornea. ' 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 92B: 361–365, 2010

Clinical indicators of quality for Australian residential aged care facilities : establishing reliability, validity, and quality thresholds

Background: In response to the need for more comprehensive quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities, the Clinical Care Indicator (CCI) Tool was developed to collect outcome data as a means of making inferences about quality. A national trial of its effectiveness and a Brisbane-based trial of its use within the quality improvement context determined the CCI Tool represented a potentially valuable addition to the Australian aged care system. This document describes the next phase in the CCI Tool.s development; the aims of which were to establish validity and reliability of the CCI Tool, and to develop quality indicator thresholds (benchmarks) for use in Australia. The CCI Tool is now known as the ResCareQA (Residential Care Quality Assessment). Methods: The study aims were achieved through a combination of quantitative data analysis, and expert panel consultations using modified Delphi process. The expert panel consisted of experienced aged care clinicians, managers, and academics; they were initially consulted to determine face and content validity of the ResCareQA, and later to develop thresholds of quality. To analyse its psychometric properties, ResCareQA forms were completed for all residents (N=498) of nine aged care facilities throughout Queensland. Kappa statistics were used to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliability, and Cronbach.s alpha coefficient calculated to determine internal consistency. For concurrent validity, equivalent items on the ResCareQA and the Resident Classification Scales (RCS) were compared using Spearman.s rank order correlations, while discriminative validity was assessed using known-groups technique, comparing ResCareQA results between groups with differing care needs, as well as between male and female residents. Rank-ordered facility results for each clinical care indicator (CCI) were circulated to the panel; upper and lower thresholds for each CCI were nominated by panel members and refined through a Delphi process. These thresholds indicate excellent care at one extreme and questionable care at the other. Results: Minor modifications were made to the assessment, and it was renamed the ResCareQA. Agreement on its content was reached after two Delphi rounds; the final version contains 24 questions across four domains, enabling generation of 36 CCIs. Both test-retest and inter-rater reliability were sound with median kappa values of 0.74 (test-retest) and 0.91 (inter-rater); internal consistency was not as strong, with a Chronbach.s alpha of 0.46. Because the ResCareQA does not provide a single combined score, comparisons for concurrent validity were made with the RCS on an item by item basis, with most resultant correlations being quite low. Discriminative validity analyses, however, revealed highly significant differences in total number of CCIs between high care and low care groups (t199=10.77, p=0.000), while the differences between male and female residents were not significant (t414=0.56, p=0.58). Clinical outcomes varied both within and between facilities; agreed upper and lower thresholds were finalised after three Delphi rounds. Conclusions: The ResCareQA provides a comprehensive, easily administered means of monitoring quality in residential aged care facilities that can be reliably used on multiple occasions. The relatively modest internal consistency score was likely due to the multi-factorial nature of quality, and the absence of an aggregate result for the assessment. Measurement of concurrent validity proved difficult in the absence of a gold standard, but the sound discriminative validity results suggest that the ResCareQA has acceptable validity and could be confidently used as an indication of care quality within Australian residential aged care facilities. The thresholds, while preliminary due to small sample size, enable users to make judgements about quality within and between facilities. Thus it is recommended the ResCareQA be adopted for wider use.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

The Attack on Political Correctness: Islamophobia and the Erosion of Multiculturalism In Australia Under the Howard Regime

This article reports on civil society in Australia between 1996 and 2007 related to former Prime Minister John Howard. The article discusses Howard's neo-conservative ideology and Liberal-National coalition, noting his views on political correctness. Howard's administration is also discussed in terms of immigration, multiculturalism, indigenous land rights, othering, and Islamaphobia. Information on the effect of Islamaphobia on Australian perceptions and the treatment of Muslims is also provided

Mesopic rod and S-cone interactions revealed by modulation thresholds

We analyzed mesopic rod and S-cone interactions in terms of their contributions to the blue-yellow opponent pathway. Stimuli were generated using a 4-primary colorimeter. Mixed rod and S-cone modulation thresholds (constant L-, M-cone excitation) were measured as a function of their phase difference. Modulation amplitude was equated using threshold units and contrast ratios. This study identified three interaction types: (1) A linear and antagonistic rod:S-cone interaction, (2) probability summation (3) and a previously unidentified mutual nonlinear reinforcement. Linear rod:S-cone interactions occur within the blue-yellow opponent pathway. Probability summation involves signaling by different post-receptoral pathways. The origin of the nonlinear reinforcement is possibly at the photoreceptors.

A nation’s role in addressing base erosion and profit shifting : balancing sovereignty with international collaboration and coordination

The notion of sovereignty is central to any international tax issue. While a nation is free to design its tax laws as it sees fit and raise revenue in accordance with the needs of its citizens, it is not possible to undertake such a task in isolation. In a world of cross-border investments and business transactions, all tax regimes impact on one another. Tax interactions between sovereign states cannot be avoided. Ultimately, the interactions mean that a nation must decide whether to engage in both collaboration and coordination with other nations and supranational bodies alike or maintain an individualised stance in relation to its tax policy. Whatever the decision, there is arguably an exercise in national sovereignty in some form. In the context of an international tax regime, whether that regime is interpreted broadly as meaning international norms generally adopted by nations around the world or domestic regimes legislating for cross-border transactions, rhetoric around national fiscal sovereignty takes on many different forms. At one end of the spectrum it is relied upon by financial secrecy jurisdictions (tax havens) as a defence to their position on the basis that ‘other’ nations cannot interfere with the fiscal sovereignty of a jurisdiction. At the other end of the spectrum, it is argued that profit shifting and international tax avoidance if not stopped is, in and of itself, a threat to a nation’s fiscal sovereignty on the basis that it threatens the ability to tax and raise the revenue needed. This paper considers a modern conceptualisation of sovereignty along with its role within international tax coordination and collaboration to argue that a move towards a more unified approach to addressing international base erosion and profit shifting may be the ultimate exercise of national fiscal sovereignty. By using the current transfer pricing regime as a case study, this paper posits that it is not merely enough to have international agreement on allocation rules to be applied, but that the ultimate exercise of national sovereignty is political agreement with other states to ensure that it is governments which determine the allocational basis of worldwide profits to be taxed. In doing so, it is demonstrated that the arm’s length pricing requirement of the current transfer pricing regime, rather than providing governments with the ability to determine the location of profits, is providing multinational entities with the ultimate power to determine that location. If left unchecked, this will eventually erode a nation’s ability to capture the required tax revenue and, as a consequence, may be deemed a failure by nation states to exercise their fiscal sovereignty.

A nation's role in addressing base erosion and profit shifting : sovereignty in relation to transfer pricing

The notion of sovereignty is central to any international tax issue. While a nation is free to design its tax laws as it sees fit and raise revenue in accordance with the needs of its citizens, it is not possible to undertake such a task in isolation. Tax interactions between sovereign states cannot be avoided. Ultimately, the interactions mean that a nation must decide whether or engage in both collaboration and co ordination with other nations and supranational bodies alike or maintain a unilateral stance in relation to its tax policy. This article considers a modern conceptualisation of sovereignty to argue that a move towards a more unified approach to addressing international base erosion and profit sharing may be the ultimate exercise of national fiscal sovereignty.

Matrix metalloproteinase 13-deficient mice are resistant to osteoarthritic cartilage erosion but not chondrocyte hypertrophy or osteophyte development

Objective To investigate the role of matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13; collagenase 3) in osteoarthritis (OA). Methods OA was surgically induced in the knees of MMP-13-knockout mice and wild-type mice, and mice were compared. Histologic scoring of femoral and tibial cartilage aggrecan loss (0-3 scale), erosion (0-7 scale), and chondrocyte hypertrophy (0-1 scale), as well as osteophyte size (0-3 scale) and maturity (0-3 scale) was performed. Serial sections were stained for type X collagen and the MMP-generated aggrecan neoepitope DIPEN. Results Following surgery, aggrecan loss and cartilage erosion were more severe in the tibia than femur (P < 0.01) and tibial cartilage erosion increased with time (P < 0.05) in wild-type mice. Cartilaginous osteophytes were present at 4 weeks and underwent ossification, with size and maturity increasing by 8 weeks (P < 0.01). There was no difference between genotypes in aggrecan loss or cartilage erosion at 4 weeks. There was less tibial cartilage erosion in knockout mice than in wild-type mice at 8 weeks (P < 0.02). Cartilaginous osteophytes were larger in knockout mice at 4 weeks (P < 0.01), but by 8 weeks osteophyte maturity and size were no different from those in wild-type mice. Articular chondrocyte hypertrophy with positive type X collagen and DIPEN staining occurred in both wild-type and knockout mouse joints. Conclusion Our findings indicate that structural cartilage damage in a mouse model of OA is dependent on MMP-13 activity. Chondrocyte hypertrophy is not regulated by MMP-13 activity in this model and does not in itself lead to cartilage erosion. MMP-13 deficiency can inhibit cartilage erosion in the presence of aggrecan depletion, supporting the potential for therapeutic intervention in established OA with MMP-13 inhibitors.

Superior perilimbal epitheliopathy in recurrent corneal erosion syndrome

Purpose To highlight the finding of occult areas of poor epithelial adhesion in the superior perilimbal cornea in a minority of patients with recalcitrant recurrent corneal erosion syndrome presenting with corneal erosion elsewhere on the corneal surface. Patient population 31 eyes of 31 consecutive patients with corneal erosion undergoing mechanical debridement of the epithelium prior to diamond burr keratectomy for recurrent corneal erosion. Methods Determine the location and incidence of poor epithelial adhesion distant from the initial erosion by use of mechanical debridement with a dry microsponge. Results During debridement, 8 of 31 eyes (25.8%) displayed a large arcuate area of occult dysfunction of adhesion in the superior perilimbal area. None of these patients showed recurrence over a mean of 18 month after diamond burr keratectomy (95% confidence interval 0-36.9%). Conclusion Mechanical debridement with a microsponge identified a significant minority of patients with poor adhesion in the superior perilimbal cornea away from the area of obvious erosion and increased the target area for diamond burr keratectomy. This two pronged approach allowed successful management of this group.