The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Puunoston kehittäminen Stora Enso Metsän Helsingin palvelupisteessä

The operation environment in the roundwood trade in Finland in the 1990’s include several changes. They are changes in the structure of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) ownership, forest taxation, in forest legislation, in price recommendation agreement, diminishing resources of forestry extension services, etc. At the same time, the roundwood demand has been rising. All these developments cause uncertainty in wood procurement organisations, and call for research to find out how to adapt into the changing environment. The objective of this study is to produce information for roundwood purchasing planning and cus-tomer satisfaction management to be used by Stora Enso Metsä Customer Service, Helsinki. For this pur-pose, data needs to be gathered about the urban NIPFs and their forest estates, behaviour related to forestry and timber-selling, customer satisfaction in their latest timber selling transaction, and their opinions about Enso’s new customer service office and its service concept. To fulfil the objective of the study, a NIPF -owner -survey (N=1064, response rate 39,7%) was con-ducted in October 1998-January 1999. The sample was made on the basis of the marketing database of Stora Enso Oyj Forest Customer Service in Helsinki. In planning the frame of reference of the empirical study, the model of service quality by Grönroos was applied. The following aspects were included in the 7-page questionnaire: demographic, sosio-economic and forest estate background, relation to the forest service supply, behaviour related to forestry, timber-selling motives and behaviour, last contact organisation and its image in forestry business, expectations and percep-tions in the latest timber-selling transactions, and behavioural intentions. The results revealed that the share of women, pensioners and academically educated people among forest owners was quite high. The majority of the forest estates of the metropolitan forest owners were situ-ated in the provinces of South Finland and East Finland. The average forest estate area was considerably smaller than in a previous study. Economic and recreational objectives were most important in the use of forests. Forest Associations were involved in half of the roundwood sales transactions of the respondents in the metropolitan area. The wood quantity of transactions was considerably higher than the average in the whole country. Bank-organised forest-related activities, taxation infos and trips to the forest were the most popular activities. Among the services, silvicultural advices were needed mostly and stub treatment least. Brochure material related to stumpage timber sales and taxation were considered most important compared to material related to delivery sales. The service expectations were at highest for women and they were less satisfied with the service than men. 2nd and 3rd generation residents of the metropolitan area thought about the new customer service concept more positively than the 1st generation residents. Internet users under 60 years thought more positively about new satellite picture-based woodlot search concept. Cross-tabulation of factor scores against background variables indicated that women with relatively low education level a greater need to sell roundwood than entrepreneurs, white-collar workers and directors, and Internet users. Suspiciousness towards timber procurement organisations was relatively strong among women and those whose forest income share of the total income was either null or over 20 %. The average customer satisfaction score was negative in all nine questions. Statistical differences be-tween different companies did not exist in the average satisfaction scores. Stora Enso’s Helsinki forest cus-tomer service could choose the ability to purchase all timber grades as its competitive advantage. Out of nine service dimension included in the questionnaire, in this particular service dimension, Enso’s Helsinki forest customer service’s score exceeded most all organisations’ average customer satisfaction score. On the basis of importance – performance matrix, advice and quidance could have been provided more to the forest owners in their latest timber–selling transaction.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Northerly Distribution of White Sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, in the Eastern Pacific and Relation to ENSO Events

Twenty-nine verified records of white sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, from British Columbia and Alaska waters (1961–2004) are presented. Record locations ranged from lat. 48°48ʹN to lat. 60°17ʹN, including the northernmost occurrence of a white shark and the first report of this species from the central Bering Sea. White sharks recorded from the study area were generally large, with 95% falling between 3.8 and 5.4 m in length. Mature white sharks of both sexes occur in British Columbia and Alaska waters, although they do not necessarily reproduce there. White sharks actively feed in the study area; their diet is similar to that reported for this species from Washington and northern California waters. Sea surface temperature (SST) concurrent with white shark records from the study area ranged from 16°C to between 6.4°C and 5.0°C, extending the lower extreme of the range of SST from which this species has been previously reported. White shark strandings are rarely reported, yet 16 (55%) of the records in this study are of beached animals; strandings generally occurred later in the year and at lower latitudes than nonstrandings. No significant correlation was found between white shark records in the study area and El Niño events and no records occurred during La Niña events. The data presented here indicate that white sharks are more abundant in the cold waters of British Columbia and Alaska than previous records suggest.

Streamflow and La Niña event relationships in the ENSO-streamflow core areas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), La Niña, has not been given as much attention as its counterpart, the low index phase of the SO, El Niño. One reason may be related to the fact that many similarities exist among El Niño events but not among La Niña events. ... In this study, we focus on the influences of La Niña phenomena on streamflow anomalies ... to explore the SO-related signal over the United States.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Relationships between ENSO events and San Francisco rainfall, 1949-1991

As California entered its sixth consecutive year of drought, the onset of a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific and other indicators of a developing ENSO event were observed. This brought the following question from the media, water officials, and the public: What effect will El Niño have on the current rainfall season in general and on the intraseasonal distribution of rain in particular? To answer the question, the historical San Francisco rainfall record was examined in relationship to previous ENSO events.

Solar-cycle modulations of ENSO: a possible source of climatic change

An association between long-term changes in the solar cycle and the frequency of El Niño events has been identified in historical records of El Niño and sunspot number. Although no known mechanism can explain the apparent relationship, the association is strong. A possible coupling between the sun and the ocean's mixed layer, involving ENSO, is worthy of further study.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and forest fires in the southwestern United States

Fire statistics (area burned) and fire-scar chronologies from tree rings show reduced fire activity during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in forests of Arizona and New Mexico. This relationship probably stems from increased fuel moisture after a wet winter and spring, but also could involve climatic controls on lightning activity at the onset of the monsoon season.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

ENSO influences on atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the western United States is presented from two perspectives. First, ENSO-associated circulation patterns over the North Pacific/North America sector were identified using an REOF (rotated empirical orthogonal function) analysis of the 700-mb height field and compositing these for extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. ... Second, we examine the variability of precipitation during the warm and cool phases of ENSO for different locations in the western United States.

Recent winters in the western United States and relationship to ENSO patterns [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In the mountainous western United States, winter weather has consequences for the entire year, especially with respect to the use of water. For most of the past 6-8 years, drought has been a persistent feature of the climate.